Field study and numerical simulation of developing red tide in the northern Strait of Hormuz

The catastrophic event of red tide has happened in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman from late summer 2008 to spring 2009. With its devastating effects, the phenomenon shocked all the countries located in the margin of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman and caused considerable losses to fishery industries, tourism, and tourist and trade economy of the region. In the maritime cruise carried out by the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman Ecological Research Institute, field data, including temperature, salinity, chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen and algal density were obtained for this research. Satellite information was received from MODIS and MERIS and SeaWiFS sensors. Temperature and surface chlorophyll images were obtained and compared with the field data and data of PROBE model. The results obtained from the present research indicated that with the occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HAB), the Chlorophyll-a and the dissolved oxygen contents increased in the surface water. Maximum algal density was seen in the northern coasts of the Strait of Hormuz. Less concentration of algal density was detected in deep and surface offshore water. Our results show that the occurred algal bloom was the result of seawater temperature drop, water circulation and the adverse environmental pollutions caused by industrial and urban sewages entering the coastal waters in this region of the Persian Gulf ,This red tide phenomenon was started in the Strait of Hormuz and eventually covered about 140,000 km2 of the Persian Gulf and total area of Strait of Hormuz and it survived for 10 months which is a record amongst the occurred algal blooms across the world. Temperature and chlorophyll satellite images were proportionate to the measured values obtained by the field method. This indicates that satellite measurements have acceptable precisions and they can be used in sea monitoring and modeling.

Investigation and prediction of sea level variations in the northern coasts of Persian Gulf using artificial neural network

Sea- level variations have a significant impact on coastal areas. Prediction of sea level variations expected from the pre most critical information needs associated with the sea environment. For this, various methods exist. In this study, on the northern coast of the Persian Gulf have been studied relation to the effectiveness of parameters such as pressure, temperature and wind speed on sea leve and associated with global parameters such as the North Atlantic Oscillation index and NAO index and present statistic models for prediction of sea level. In the next step by using artificial neural network predict sea level for first in this region. Then compared results of the models. Prediction using statistical models estimated in terms correlation coefficient R = 0.84 and root mean square error (RMS) 21.9 cm for the Bushehr station, and R = 0.85 and root mean square error (RMS) 48.4 cm for Rajai station, While neural network used to have 4 layers and each middle layer six neurons is best for prediction and produces the results reliably in terms of correlation coefficient with R = 0.90126 and the root mean square error (RMS) 13.7 cm for the Bushehr station, and R = 0.93916 and the root mean square error (RMS) 22.6 cm for Rajai station. Therefore, the proposed methodology could be successfully used in the study area.

External school evaluation : teachers’ perspectives : two case studies from Northern Portugal

The external evaluation of non-higher education schools in Portugal has been developed by the General Inspectorate of Education since 2006. A first cycle of evaluation was completed, covering all educational units in continental Portugal up to 2011. The model of evaluation has since been subject to alterations, and a second cycle of evaluation is now coming to an end. The current model of evaluation is based on documental analysis, analysis of students’ results, and panel interviews with a variety of representatives of the school community, and addresses three domains: results, provision of educational service and management. This paper is part of an ongoing research project, developed by 6 universities and supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (PTDC/CPE-CED/116674/2010) which intends to analyse the impacts and effects this process of external evaluation has had on Portuguese schools. This project includes a variety of perspectives and methodologies. In particular, we will focus on two case studies undertaken in two schools from the northern region of Portugal, and more specifically on the perspectives expressed by the teachers of those schools. These particular schools were chosen because they have been evaluated twice and represent different educational levels (basic and secondary), contexts and results. These case studies included the analysis of documental data, interviews to key informants and a questionnaire directed to teachers (n = 141) – the latter will be the main focus of this paper. Teachers are essential elements of the school community when considering the impacts of external evaluation, as any changes directed at teaching practices, student evaluation, among others are only possible through their direct action and implication. Therefore, their perceptions on the process and its impacts are crucial to the understanding of what does and does not change in schools as a consequence of external evaluation. Although teachers’ opinions are not homogenous and each school reveals a number of differences when it comes to teachers’ perceptions of School Evaluation, it was possible to stress some areas as the most and as the least consensual. Teachers in both schools agree External School Evaluation (ESE) is useful for the identification of the schools’ strengths and weaknesses, values students’ external evaluation results, imposes a model for schools internal evaluation (and in fact contributes to the very existence of internal evaluation practices), and contributes to schools improvement. However teachers in both schools do not believe ESE contributes to teachers’ autonomy produces changes in how curriculum is managed, or leads to innovative teaching practices. These results point to a greater emphasis on change at the levels of school management, self-evaluation and particularly internal evaluation, but little impact on the teaching practices. We believe the classroom is at the core of school practices and teaching processes are essential to any measure of school quality and to their impacts on student learning.

Plant Migrations Impact on Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Forests have a prominent role in carbon storage and sequestration. Anthropogenic forcing has the potential to accelerate climate change and alter the distribution of forests. How forests redistribute spatially and temporally in response to climate change can alter their carbon sequestration potential. The driving question for this research was: How does plant migration from climate change impact vegetation distribution and carbon sequestration potential over continental scales? Large-scale simulation of the equilibrium response of vegetation and carbon from future climate change has shown relatively modest net gains in sequestration potential, but studies of the transient response has been limited to the sub-continent or landscape scale. The transient response depends on fine scale processes such as competition, disturbance, landscape characteristics, dispersal, and other factors, which makes it computational prohibitive at large domain sizes. To address this, this research used an advanced mechanistic model (Ecosystem Demography Model, ED) that is individually based, but pseudo-spatial, that reduces computational intensity while maintaining the fine scale processes that drive the transient response. First, the model was validated against remote sensing data for current plant functional type distribution in northern North America with a current climatology, and then a future climatology was used to predict the potential equilibrium redistribution of vegetation and carbon from future climate change. Next, to enable transient calculations, a method was developed to simulate the spatially explicit process of dispersal in pseudo-spatial modeling frameworks. Finally, the new dispersal sub-model was implemented in the mechanistic ecosystem model, and a model experimental design was designed and completed to estimate the transient response of vegetation and carbon to climate change. The potential equilibrium forest response to future climate change was found to be large, with large gross changes in distribution of plant functional types and comparatively smaller changes in net carbon sequestration potential for the region. However, the transient response was found to be on the order of centuries, and to depend strongly on disturbance rates and dispersal distances. Future work should explore the impact of species-specific disturbance and dispersal rates, landscape fragmentation, and other processes that influence migration rates and have been simulated at the sub-continent scale, but now at continental scales, and explore a range of alternative future climate scenarios as they continue to be developed.

Primary Antibiotic Resistance to Helicobacter pylori Strains Isolated From Children in Northern Iran: A Single Center Study

Background: Initial resistance to antibiotics is the main reason for the failure of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) eradication in children. Objectives: As we commonly face high antibiotic resistance rates in children, we aimed to determine the susceptibility of H. pylori to common antibiotics. Patients and Methods: In this cross-sectional in vitro study, 169 children younger than 14 years with clinical diagnosis of peptic ulcer underwent upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. Biopsy specimens from stomach and duodenum were cultured. In isolated colonies, tests of catalase, urease, and oxidase as well as gram staining were performed. After confirming the colonies as H. pylori, the antibiogram was obtained using disk diffusion method. Results: Culture for H. pylori was positive in 12.3% of the specimens, urease test in 21.3%, serological test in 18.9% and stool antigen test was positive in 21.9%. We could show high specificity but moderate sensitivity of both histological and H. pylori stool antigen tests to detect H. pylori. The overall susceptibility to metronidazole was 42.9%, amoxicillin 95.2%, clarithromycin 85.7%, furazolidone 61.9%, azithromycin 81.0%, and tetracycline 76.2% with the highest resistance to metronidazole and the lowest to clarithromycin. Conclusions: In our region, there is high resistance of H. pylori to some antibiotics including metronidazole and furazolidone among affected children. To reduce the prevalence of this antibiotic resistance, more controlled use of antibiotics should be considered in children.

Farmers groups within extension networks in Northern Uganda : inclusive or exclusive?

Group extension methods are widely recognized as the most effective extension method in agricultural development internationally. Research in this area tends to look at group function, and factors that inhibit or promote successful group activity. Most development projects start with an analysis of whether groups exist or may need to be formed, and then focus on group function. However, very little research to date has considered the farmer group from a whole community context, when assessing knowledge and information dissemination in rural areas. This paper presents and discusses research finding from a case study with three communities in Gulu district of Northern Uganda, where household surveys were used to map networks within andbetween community members and external organizations identified as promoting agricultural development in the region. The potential impact of inclusion or exclusion in such a group within small communities emerged as a significant issue, as well as the strong disconnect between community and external organizational perceptions of group existence, function and impact.

The impact of a line probe assay based diagnostic algorithm on time to treatment initiation and treatment outcomes for multidrug resistant TB patients in Arkhangelsk region, Russia

BACKGROUND: In the Arkhangelsk region of Northern Russia, multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) rates in new cases are amongst the highest in the world. In 2014, MDR-TB rates reached 31.7% among new cases and 56.9% among retreatment cases. The development of new diagnostic tools allows for faster detection of both TB and MDR-TB and should lead to reduced transmission by earlier initiation of anti-TB therapy. STUDY AIM: The PROVE-IT (Policy Relevant Outcomes from Validating Evidence on Impact) Russia study aimed to assess the impact of the implementation of line probe assay (LPA) as part of an LPA-based diagnostic algorithm for patients with presumptive MDR-TB focusing on time to treatment initiation with time from first-care seeking visit to the initiation of MDR-TB treatment rather than diagnostic accuracy as the primary outcome, and to assess treatment outcomes. We hypothesized that the implementation of LPA would result in faster time to treatment initiation and better treatment outcomes.

METHODS: A culture-based diagnostic algorithm used prior to LPA implementation was compared to an LPA-based algorithm that replaced BacTAlert and Löwenstein Jensen (LJ) for drug sensitivity testing. A total of 295 MDR-TB patients were included in the study, 163 diagnosed with the culture-based algorithm, 132 with the LPA-based algorithm.

RESULTS: Among smear positive patients, the implementation of the LPA-based algorithm was associated with a median decrease in time to MDR-TB treatment initiation of 50 and 66 days compared to the culture-based algorithm (BacTAlert and LJ respectively, p<0.001). In smear negative patients, the LPA-based algorithm was associated with a median decrease in time to MDR-TB treatment initiation of 78 days when compared to the culture-based algorithm (LJ, p<0.001). However, several weeks were still needed for treatment initiation in LPA-based algorithm, 24 days in smear positive, and 62 days in smear negative patients. Overall treatment outcomes were better in LPA-based algorithm compared to culture-based algorithm (p = 0.003). Treatment success rates at 20 months of treatment were higher in patients diagnosed with the LPA-based algorithm (65.2%) as compared to those diagnosed with the culture-based algorithm (44.8%). Mortality was also lower in the LPA-based algorithm group (7.6%) compared to the culture-based algorithm group (15.9%). There was no statistically significant difference in smear and culture conversion rates between the two algorithms.

CONCLUSION: The results of the study suggest that the introduction of LPA leads to faster time to MDR diagnosis and earlier treatment initiation as well as better treatment outcomes for patients with MDR-TB. These findings also highlight the need for further improvements within the health system to reduce both patient and diagnostic delays to truly optimize the impact of new, rapid diagnostics.

The European Union and its Northern Frontier : EUropean Geopolitics and its Arctic Context

The present study explores EUropean geopolitical agency in a distinct spatio-temporal context: the Arctic region of the early 21st century. Thus, it provides an in-depth analysis of the European Union’s process to construct EUropean legitimacy and credibility in its ‘Northern Neighbourhood’ between 2008 and 2014. Embedded in a conceptual and methodological framework using critical geopolitics, this study assesses the strategic policy reasoning of the EU and the implicit geopolitical discourses that guide and determine a particular line of argumentation so as to claim a ‘legitimate’ role in the Arctic and accordingly construct a distinct ‘EUropean Arctic space’. In doing so, it establishes a clearer picture on the (narrated) regional interests of the EU and the related developed policy and concrete steps taken in order to get hold of these interests. Eventually, the analysis gets to the conceptual bottom of what exactly fashioned the EU with geopolitical agency in the circumpolar North. As a complementary explanation, this study provides a thick description of the area under scrutiny – the Arctic region – in order to explicate the systemic context that conditioned the EU’s regional demeanour and action. Elucidated along the lines of Arctic history and identity, rights, interests and responsibility, it delineates the emergence of the Arctic as a region of and for geopolitics. The findings indicate that the sui generis character of the Arctic as EUropean neighbourhood essentially determined the EU’s regional performance. It explicates that the Union’s ‘traditional’ geopolitical models of civilian or normative power got entangled in a fluid state of Arctic affairs: a distinct regional system, characterised by few strong state actors with pronounced national Arctic interests and identities, and an indefinite local context of environmental changes, economic uncertainties and social challenges. This study applies critical geopolitics in a Political Science context and essentially contributes to a broader understanding of EU foreign policy construction and behaviour. Ultimately, it offers an interdisciplinary approach on how to analyse EU external action by explicitly taking into account the internal and external social processes that ultimately condition a certain EUropean foreign policy performance.

Phylogeography of the antilopine wallaroo (Macropus antilopinus) across tropical northern Australia

The distribution of antilopine wallaroo, Macropus antilopinus, is marked by a break in the species’ range between Queensland and the Northern Territory, coinciding with the Carpentarian barrier. Previous work on M. antilopinus revealed limited genetic differentiation between the Northern Territory and Queensland M. antilopinus populations across this barrier. The study also identified a number of divergent lineages in the Northern Territory, but was unable to elucidate any geographic structure. Here, we re-examine these results to (1) determine phylogeographic patterns across the range of M. antilopinus and (2) infer the biogeographic barriers associated with these patterns. The tropical savannahs of northern Australia: from the Cape York Peninsula in the east, to the Kimberley in the west. We examined phylogeographic patterns in M. antilopinus using a larger number of samples and three mtDNA genes: NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2, cytochrome b, and the control region. Two datasets were generated and analyzed: (1) a subset of samples with all three mtDNA regions concatenated together and (2) all samples for just control region sequences that included samples from the previous study. Analysis included generating phylogenetic trees based on Bayesian analysis and intraspecific median-joining networks. The contemporary spatial structure of M. antilopinus mtDNA lineages revealed five shallow clades and a sixth, divergent lineage. The genetic differences that we found between Queensland and Northern Territory M. antilopinus samples confirmed the split in the geographic distribution of the species. We also found weak genetic differentiation between Northern Territory samples and those from the Kimberley region of Western Australia, possibly due to the Kimberley Plateau–Arnhem Land barrier. Within the Northern Territory, two clades appear to be parapatric in the west, while another two clades are broadly sympatric across the Northern Territory. MtDNA diversity of M. antilopinus revealed an unexpectedly complex evolutionary history involving multiple sympatric and parapatric mtDNA clades across northern Australia. These phylogeographic patterns highlight the importance of investigating genetic variation across distributions of species and integrating this information into biodiversity conservation.

The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease at the wildlife-livestock interface in northern Tanzania

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.

ASSESSMENT OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN GREENHOUSE PRODUCTION IN THE WEST REGION OF PORTUGAL

Greenhouse production is a very important activity in the West region of Portugal, with an area of approximately 800 ha where the regular production consists in two crops per year, one in winter-spring and the other in summer-autumn. Many growers are now prepared to better exploit market opportunities, since they know that the big export window opportunity is from June to September, when the production is difficult in other regions of south due to high temperatures. Grower’s use new and more productive varieties, either in soil or hydroponic systems, mostly in unheated greenhouses, naturally ventilated, and equipped with modern fertigation systems. Greenhouse production causes some environmental impacts due to the high use of inputs. Several improvements in technologies and crop practices may contribute to increase the use efficiency of resources, decreasing the negative environmental impacts. Greenhouse vegetable production in Northern EU countries is based on the supply of heating and differs significantly from the production system in the Southern EU countries. In the Northern countries, direct energy inputs, mostly for heating, are predominant while in the South the indirect energy input is also important, mainly associated with fertilizers, plastic cover materials and other auxiliary materials. The main objective of this work was to characterise the greenhouse production systems in the West region of Portugal, in order to evaluate the energetic consumptions (direct and indirect), the GHH emissions, the production costs and the farmer’s income. With this work the mostly important inputs were identified, allowing proposing alternative measures to improve efficiency and sustainability. All the data was obtained by surveys performed directly with growers, previously selected to be representative of the crop practices and greenhouse type of the region. However, more research should be performed in order to develop and to test technologies capable to improve resources use efficiency in greenhouse production.

The seismicity of Portugal and its adjacent Atlantic region from 1300 to 2014: Maximum Observed Intensity map (MOI)

In this study, we considered earthquakes with a maximum observed intensity (MOI) Io≥V that occurred throughout the Portuguese mainland and its adjacent Atlantic region to produce the map of maximum intensities of Portugal. This map is based on a wide variety of historical and recent sources, including 175 earthquakes, over the period of 1300–2014. This MOI map allows the regions of high, medium, and low levels of seismic hazard to be highlighted. The entirety of Portugal has been affected by major seismic events, some of which have caused serious damage. In addition, offshore earthquakes have had significant impacts on the coastal cities located in the central and southern regions of the country. Because the southern region of mainland Portugal is more active than the northern region, the largest concentrations of events with Io≥VI are in the southern region, especially on the mainland near the city of Évora, in the Lisbon region, in the Lower Tagus Valley region, and along the Algarve coast, especially in the southwest region in Cape of São Vicente and the Gorringe Bank.

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.