Predicting the effects of climate change on sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida

Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Wilmington gray to blue

Wilmington is situated on the divide of two major watersheds, the Cape Fear River and the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway. All surface waters in Wilmington drain to one of these two water bodies and are divided into two groups: tidal creeks and Cape Fear River tributaries. Cape Fear River tributaries drain directly to the Cape Fear River and comprise the western portion of Wilmington’s surface waters. Tidal creeks drain directly into the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway and make up the eastern portion of Wilmington’s surface waters. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Linking public perceptions of socioeconmic change and marine resource management in rural Maine

Rural coastal regions across the United States are coping with dramatic social and environmental changes. Historically, these areas relied heavily on fishing and marine commerce and these economic activities defined the character of coastal communities. However, shifting ocean and climate conditions, together with inadequate management strategies, have led to sharp declines in harvestable marine resources. These trends, along with increasing competition from aquaculture and international sources of fish, have led to the steady decline of fishing as the central economic activity in many rural coastal communities. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Long Bay hypoxia study: A collaborative and multidisciplinary approach

The nearshore waters along the Myrtle Beach area are oceanographically referred to as Long Bay. Long Bay is the last in a series of semi-circular indentations located along the South Atlantic seaboard. The Bay extends for approximately 150 km from the Cape Fear River in North Carolina to Winyah Bay in South Carolina and has a number of small inlets (Figure 1). This region of the S.C. coast, commonly referred to as the “Grand Strand,” has a significant tourism base that accounts for a substantial portion of the South Carolina economy (i.e., 40% of the state’s total in 2002) (TIAA 2003). In 2004, the Grand Strand had an estimated 13.2 million visitors of which 90% went to the beach (MBCC 2006). In addition, Long Bay supports a shore-based hook and line fishery comprised of anglers fishing from recreational fishing piers, the beach, and small recreational boats just offshore. (PDF contains 4 pages)

The politics of participation: Evaluating stakeholder equity in co-management regimes

Within natural resource management, there is increasing criticism of the traditional model of top-down management as a method of governance, as researchers and managers alike have recognized that resources can frequently be better managed when stakeholders are directly involved in management. As a result, in recent years the concept of co-management of natural resources, in which management responsibilities are shared between the government and stakeholders, has become increasingly popular, both in the academic literature and in practice. However, while co-management has significant potential as a successful management tool, the issue of equity in co-management has rarely been addressed. It is necessary to understand the differential impacts on stakeholders of co-management processes and the degree to which diverse stakeholders are represented within co-management. Understanding the interests of various stakeholders can be a way to more effectively address the distributional and social impacts of coastal policies, which can in turn increase compliance with management measures and lead to more sustainable resource management regimes. This research seeks to take a closer look at the concepts of co-management and participation through a number of case studies of marine protected areas (MPAs) in the Caribbean. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Marine spatial planning approaches at the state level: Similarities and differences between MSP efforts across the country

Competing uses, sensitive and valuable marine resources, and overlapping jurisdictions complicate management decision making in the marine environment. States are developing marine spatial planning capacity to help make better decisions, particularly as demand for ocean space and resources is growing because of emerging human uses (renewable energy, aquaculture) and traditional human uses (commercial fishing, commerce). This paper offers perspectives on marine spatial planning efforts being carried out in four states across the US, and demonstrates similarities and differences between them. The approach to marine spatial planning in each state is discussed with specific attention given to issues such as what is driving the effort, data availability, maturity of the effort, and level of resources devoted to it. Highlighting the similarities and differences illustrates state and region specific challenges and the approaches being used to meet them. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Coastal resource planning system: Integrating evaluation of ecological integrity and ecosystem services valuation

Efficient and effective coastal management decisions rely on knowledge of the impact of human activities on ecosystem integrity, vulnerable species, and valued ecosystem services—collectively, human impact on environmental quality (EQ). Ecosystem-based management (EBM) is an emerging approach to address the dynamics and complexities of coupled social-ecological systems. EBM “is intended to directly address the long-term sustainable delivery of ecosystem services and the resilience of marine ecosystems to perturbations” (Rosenberg and Sandifer, 2009). The lack of a tool that integrates human choices with the ecological connections between contributing watersheds and nearshore areas, and that incorporates valuation of ecosystem services, is a critical missing piece needed for effective and efficient coastal management. To address the need for an integrative tool for evaluation of human impacts on ecosystems and their services, Battelle developed the EcoVal™ Environmental Quality Evaluation System. The EcoVal system is an updated (2009) version of the EQ Evaluation System for Water Resources developed by Battelle for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Dee et al., 1972). The Battelle EQ evaluation system has a thirty-year history of providing a standard approach to evaluate watershed EQ. This paper describes the conceptual approach and methodology of the updated EcoVal system and its potential application to coastal ecosystems. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Coastal plant growth and CO2 enrichment: Can the productivity of black needle rush keep pace with sea level rise?

The rate of sea level change has varied considerably over geological time, with rapid increases (0.25 cm yr-1) at the end of the last ice age to more modest increases over the last 4,000 years (0.04 cm yr-1; Hendry 1993). Due to anthropogenic contributions to climate change, however, the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase between 0.10 and 0.25 cm year-1 for many coastal areas (Warrick et al. 1996). Notwithstanding, it has been predicted that over the next 100 years, sea levels along the northeastern coast of North Carolina may increase by an astonishing 0.8 m (0.8 cm yr-1); through a combination of sea-level rise and coastal subsidence (Titus and Richman 2001; Parham et al. 2006). As North Carolina ranks third in the United States with land at or just above sea level, any additional sea rise may promote further deterioration of vital coastal wetland systems. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Southeast White Oak River shellfish restoration project

The 42-mile-long White Oak River is one of the last relatively unblemished watery jewels of the N.C. coast. The predominantly black water river meanders through Jones, Carteret and Onslow counties along the central N.C. coast, gradually widening as it flows past Swansboro and into the Atlantic Ocean. It drains almost 12,000 acres of estuaries -- saltwater marshes lined with cordgrass, narrow and impenetrable hardwood swamps and rare stands of red cedar that are flooded with wind tides. The lower portion of the river was so renowned for fat oysters and clams that in times past competing watermen came to blows over its bounty at places that now bear names like Battleground Rock. The lower river is also a designated primary nursery area for such commercially important species as shrimp, spot, Atlantic croaker, blue crabs, weakfish and southern flounder. But the river has been discovered. The permanent population along the lower White Oak increased by almost a third since 1990, and the amount of developed land increased 82 percent during the same period. With the growth have come bacteria. Since the late 1990s, much of the lower White Oak has been added to North Carolina���s list of impaired waters because of bacterial pollution. Forty-two percent of the rivers’ oyster and clam beds are permanently closed to shellfishing because of high bacteria levels. Fully two-thirds of the river’s shellfish beds are now permanently off limits or close temporarily after a moderate rain. State monitoring indicates that increased runoff from urbanization is the probable cause of the bacterial pollution. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Deciding to evacuate: Gathering the information to make this important decision

When hazardous storms threaten coastal communities, people need information to decide how to respond to this potential emergency. NOAA and NC Sea Grant are funding a two-year project (Risk Perceptions and Emergency Communication Effectiveness in Coastal Zones) to learn how residents, government officials, businesses and other organizations are informed and use information regarding hurricane and tropical storms. (PDF contains 4 pages)