994 resultados para Normal Accident Theory


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The plasma glucose excursion may influence the metabolic responses after oral glucose ingestion. Although previous studies addressed the effects of hyperglycemia in conditions of hyperinsulinemia, it has not been evaluated whether the route of glucose administration (oral vs. intravenous) plays a role. Our aim was to determine the effects of moderately controlled hyperglycemia on glucose metabolism before and after oral glucose ingestion. Eight normal men underwent two oral glucose clamps at 6 and 10 mmol/l plasma glucose. Glucose turnover and cycling rates were measured by infusion of [2H7]glucose. The oral glucose load was labeled by D-[6,6-2H2]glucose to monitor exogenous glucose appearance, and respiratory exchanges were measured by indirect calorimetry. Sixty percent of the oral glucose load appeared in the systemic circulation during both the 6 and 10 mmol/l plasma glucose tests, although less endogenous glucose appeared during the 10 mmol/l tests before glucose ingestion (P < 0.05). This inhibitory effect of hyperglycemia was not detectable after oral glucose ingestion, although glucose utilization was increased (+28%, P < 0.05) due to increased nonoxidative glucose disposal [10 vs. 6 mmol/l: +20%, not significant (NS) before oral glucose ingestion; +40%, P < 0.05 after oral glucose ingestion]. Glucose cycling rates were increased by hyperglycemia (+13% before oral glucose ingestion, P < 0.001; +31% after oral glucose ingestion, P < 0.05) and oral glucose ingestion during both the 6 (+10%, P < 0.05) and 10 mmol/l (+26%, P < 0.005) tests. A moderate hyperglycemia inhibits endogenous glucose production and contributes to glucose tolerance by enhancing nonoxidative glucose disposal. Hyperglycemia and oral glucose ingestion both stimulate glucose cycling.

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OBJECTIVE: While there is a dose-response relationship between physical activity (PA) and health benefit, little is known about the effectiveness of different PA prescriptions on total daily PA. AIM: To test, under real-life conditions and using an objective, non-invasive measurement technique (accelerometry), the effect of prescribing additional physical activity (walking only) of different durations (30, 60 and 90 min/day) on compliance (to the activity prescribed) and compensation (to total daily PA). Participants in each group were prescribed 5 sessions of walking per week over 4 weeks. METHODS: 55 normal-weight and overweight women (mean BMI 25 ± 5 kg/m(2), height 165 ± 1 cm, weight 68 ± 2 kg and mean age 27 ± 1 years) were randomly assigned to 3 prescription groups: 30, 60 or 90 min/day PA. RESULTS: Walking duration resulted in an almost linear increase in the number of steps per day during the prescription period from an average of about 10,000 steps per day for the 30-min prescription to about 14,000 for the 90-min prescription. Compliance was excellent for the 30-min prescription but decreased significantly with 60-min and 90-min prescriptions. In parallel, degree of compensation subsequent to exercise increased progressively as length of prescription increased. CONCLUSION: A 30-min prescription of extra walking 5 times per week was well tolerated. However, in order to increase total PA further, much more than 60 min of walking may need to be prescribed in the majority of individuals. While total exercise 'volume' increased with prescriptions longer than 30 min, compliance to the prescription decreased and greater compensation was evident. © 2014 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

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This paper evaluates, from an Allyn Youngian perspective, the neoclassical Solow model of growth and the associated empirical estimates of the sources of growth based on it. It attempts to clarify Young’s particular concept of generalised or macroeconomic “increasing returns” to show the limitations of a model of growth based on an assumption that the aggregate production function is characterised by constant returns to scale but “augmented” by exogenous technical progress. Young’s concept of endogenous, self-sustaining growth is also shown to differ in important respects (including in its policy implications) from modern endogenous growth theory.

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Purpose: First, to report ECU subsheath's normal MRI appearance and the findings in athletic injuries. Second, to determine the best MRI sequence for diagnosis. Methods and materials: Sixteen patients (13 males, 3 females, mean age 30.3 years) with ECU subsheath's athletic injuries sustained between January 2003 and June 2009 were retrospectively reviewed. Wrist MRI studies were performed on 1.5-T units and consisted of at least transverse T1 and STIR sequences in pronation, and FS Gd T1 in pronation and supination. Two radiologists assessed the following items, in consensus: injury type (A to C according to Inoue), ECU tendon stability, and associated lesions (ulnar head oedema, extensor retinaculum injury, ECU tendinosis and tenosynovitis). Then, each reader independently rated the sequences' diagnostic value: 0 = questionable, 1 = suggestive, 2 = certain. Follow-up studies were present in 8 patients. ECU subsheath's normal visibility (medial, central and lateral parts) was retrospectively evaluated in 30 consecutive control MRI studies. Results: FS Gd T1 sequences in supination (1.63) and pronation (1.59) were the most valuable for diagnosis, compared to STIR (1.22) and T1 (1). The study group included 9 type A, 1 type B and 6 type C injuries. There were trends towards diminution in pouches' size, signal intensity and enhancement in follow-up studies, along with tendon stabilization within the ulnar groove. In control studies, ECU subsheath's visibility in medial, central and lateral parts were noted in 66.7-80%, 63.3-80% and 30-50% respectively. Conclusion: ECU subsheath's athletic injuries are visible on 1.5-T MRI studies. FS Gd T1 sequences in supination and pronation are the most valuable.

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Hong Kong’s currency is pegged to the US dollar in a currency board arrangement. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities revamped the one-sided currency board mechanism into a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band. This paper reviews the characteristics of the new currency board arrangement and embeds a theoretical soft edge target zone model typifying many intermediate regimes, to explain the notable achievement of speculative peace and credibility since May 2005.

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We study a psychologically based foundation for choice errors. The decision maker applies a preference ranking after forming a 'consideration set' prior to choosing an alternative. Membership of the consideration set is determined both by the alternative specific salience and by the rationality of the agent (his general propensity to consider all alternatives). The model turns out to include a logit formulation as a special case. In general, it has a rich set of implications both for exogenous parameters and for a situation in which alternatives can a¤ect their own salience (salience games). Such implications are relevant to assess the link between 'revealed' preferences and 'true' preferences: for example, less rational agents may paradoxically express their preference through choice more truthfully than more rational agents.

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This paper provides a modelling framework for evaluating the exchange rate dynamics of a target zone regime with undisclosed bands. We generalize the literature to allow for asymmetric one-sided regimes. Market participants' beliefs concerning an undisclosed band change as they learn more about central bank intervention policy. We apply the model to Hong Kong's one-sided currency board mechanism. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities finally revamped the regime as a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band.

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PURPOSE: To determine whether the relative afferent pupillary defect (RAPD) remains constant over time in normal subjects. METHODS: Seventeen normal subjects were tested with infrared pupillography and automated perimetry in four sessions over 3 years. The changes in RAPD and visual field asymmetry between testing sessions were compared. RESULTS: The range of RAPD was 0.0 to 0.3 log unit, and the difference in the mean deviation between the eyes on automated static perimetry was 0 to 3 dB. Eight subjects repeatedly had an RAPD in the same eye. There was no correlation between the RAPD and the visual field asymmetry at the same visit. Changes in the magnitude of the RAPD between any two sessions were typically small (median, 0.08 log unit; 25th percentile, 0.04 log unit; 75th percentile, 0.15 log unit). CONCLUSIONS: Some normal subjects may show a persistent but small RAPD in the absence of detectable pathologic disease. Therefore, an isolated RAPD in the range of 0.3 log unit that is not associated with any other significant historical or clinical finding should probably be considered benign.

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Recent theoretical developments and case study evidence suggests a relationship between the military in politics and corruption. This study contributes to this literature by analyzing theoretically and empirically the role of the military in politics and corruption for the first time. By drawing on a cross sectional and panel data set covering a large number of countries, over the period 1984-2007, and using a variety of econometric methods substantial empirical support is found for a positive relationship between the military in politics and corruption. In sum, our results reveal that a one standard deviation increase in the military in politics leads to a 0.22 unit increase in corruption index. This relationship is shown to be robust to a variety of specification changes, different econometric techniques, different sample sizes, alternative corruption indices and the exclusion of outliers. This study suggests that the explanatory power of the military in politics is at least as important as the conventionally accepted causes of corruption, such as economic development.

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We propose an elementary theory of wars fought by fully rational contenders. Two parties play a Markov game that combines stages of bargaining with stages where one side has the ability to impose surrender on the other. Under uncertainty and incomplete information, in the unique equilibrium of the game, long confrontations occur: war arises when reality disappoints initial (rational) optimism, and it persist longer when both agents are optimists but reality proves both wrong. Bargaining proposals that are rejected initially might eventually be accepted after several periods of confrontation. We provide an explicit computation of the equilibrium, evaluating the probability of war, and its expected losses as a function of i) the costs of confrontation, ii) the asymmetry of the split imposed under surrender, and iii) the strengths of contenders at attack and defense. Changes in these parameters display non-monotonic effects.