Case studies of the effects of a total solar eclipse on weather with varying degrees of cloud cover using a local numerical weather prediction model

The importance of renewable energies for the European electricity market is growing rapidly. This presents transmission grids and the power market in general with new challenges which stem from the higher spatiotemporal variability of power generation. This uncertainty is due to the fact that renewable power production results from weather phenomena, thus making it difficult to plan and control. We present a sensitivity study of a total solar eclipse in central Europe in March. The weather in Germany and Europe was modeled using the German Weather Service's local area models COSMO-DE and COSMO-EU, respectively (http://www.cosmo-model.org/). The simulations were performed with and without considering a solar eclipse for the following 3 situations: 1. An idealized, clear-sky situation for the entire model area (Europe, COSMO-EU) 2. A real weather situation with mostly cloudy skies (Germany, COSMO-DE) 3. A real weather situation with mostly clear skies (Germany, COSMO-DE) The data should help to evaluate the effects of a total solar eclipse on the weather in the planetary boundary layer. The results show that a total solar eclipse has significant effects particularly on the main variables for renewable energy production, such as solar irradiation and temperature near the ground.

Model parameter

Interannual environmental variability in Peru is dominated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The most dramatic changes are associated with the warm El Niño (EN) phase (opposite the cold La Niña phase), which disrupts the normal coastal upwelling and affects the dynamics of many coastal marine and terrestrial resources. This study presents a trophic model for Sechura Bay, located at the northern extension of the Peruvian upwelling system, where ENSO-induced environmental variability is most extreme. Using an initial steady-state model for the year 1996, we explore the dynamics of the ecosystem through the year 2003 (including the strong EN of 1997/98 and the weaker EN of 2002/03). Based on support from literature, we force biomass of several non-trophically-mediated 'drivers' (e.g. Scallops, Benthic detritivores, Octopus, and Littoral fish) to observe whether the fit between historical and simulated changes (by the trophic model) is improved. The results indicate that the Sechura Bay Ecosystem is a relatively inefficient system from a community energetics point of view, likely due to the periodic perturbations of ENSO. A combination of high system productivity and low trophic level target species of invertebrates (i.e. scallops) and fish (i.e. anchoveta) results in high catches and an efficient fishery. The importance of environmental drivers is suggested, given the relatively small improvements in the fit of the simulation with the addition of trophic drivers on remaining functional groups' dynamics. An additional multivariate regression model is presented for the scallop Argopecten purpuratus, which demonstrates a significant correlation between both spawning stock size and riverine discharge-mediated mortality on catch levels. These results are discussed in the context of the appropriateness of trophodynamic modeling in relatively open systems, and how management strategies may be focused given the highly environmentally influenced marine resources of the region.

Age model of firn core DML05C98_32 (B32)

In the framework of the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA), a comprehensive glaciological pre-site survey has been carried out on Amundsenisen, Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, in the past decade. Within this survey, four intermediate-depth ice cores and 13 snow pits were analyzed for their ionic composition and interpreted with respect to the spatial and temporal variability of volcanic sulphate deposition. The comparison of the non-sea-salt (nss)-sulphate peaks that are related to the well-known eruptions of Pinatubo and Cerro Hudson in AD 1991 revealed sulphate depositions of comparable size (15.8 ± 3.4 kg/km**2) in 11 snow pits. There is a tendency to higher annual concentrations for smaller snow-accumulation rates. The combination of seasonal sodium and annually resolved nss-sulphate records allowed the establishment of a time-scale derived by annual-layer counting over the last 2000 years and thus a detailed chronology of annual volcanic sulphate deposition. Using a robust outlier detection algorithm, 49 volcanic eruptions were identified between AD 165 and 1997. The dating uncertainty is ±3 years between AD 1997 and 1601, around ±5 years between AD 1601 and 1257, and increasing to ±24 years at AD 165, improving the accuracy of the volcanic chronology during the penultimate millennium considerably.