Monitoring the Accuracy of Multiple Occupancy Forecasts

Corporate executives closely monitor the accuracy of their hotels' occupancy fore- casts since important decisions are based upon these predictions. This study lists the criteria for selecting an appropriate error measure. It discusses several evaluation methods focusing on statistical significance tests and demonstrates the use of two adequate evaluation methods: Mincer- Zamowitz's efficiency test and Wilcoxon's Non-Parametric Matched-Pairs Signed- Ranks test.

Evidence of the heterogeneous market hypothesis using wavelet multi -resolution analysis

In finance literature many economic theories and models have been proposed to explain and estimate the relationship between risk and return. Assuming risk averseness and rational behavior on part of the investor, the models are developed which are supposed to help in forming efficient portfolios that either maximize (minimize) the expected rate of return (risk) for a given level of risk (rates of return). One of the most used models to form these efficient portfolios is the Sharpe's Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In the development of this model it is assumed that the investors have homogeneous expectations about the future probability distribution of the rates of return. That is, every investor assumes the same values of the parameters of the probability distribution. Likewise financial volatility homogeneity is commonly assumed, where volatility is taken as investment risk which is usually measured by the variance of the rates of return. Typically the square root of the variance is used to define financial volatility, furthermore it is also often assumed that the data generating process is made of independent and identically distributed random variables. This again implies that financial volatility is measured from homogeneous time series with stationary parameters. In this dissertation, we investigate the assumptions of homogeneity of market agents and provide evidence for the case of heterogeneity in market participants' information, objectives, and expectations about the parameters of the probability distribution of prices as given by the differences in the empirical distributions corresponding to different time scales, which in this study are associated with different classes of investors, as well as demonstrate that statistical properties of the underlying data generating processes including the volatility in the rates of return are quite heterogeneous. In other words, we provide empirical evidence against the traditional views about homogeneity using non-parametric wavelet analysis on trading data, The results show heterogeneity of financial volatility at different time scales, and time-scale is one of the most important aspects in which trading behavior differs. In fact we conclude that heterogeneity as posited by the Heterogeneous Markets Hypothesis is the norm and not the exception.

The science of citizen science

Biodiversity citizen science projects are growing in number, size, and scope, and are gaining recognition as valuable data sources that build public engagement. Yet publication rates indicate that citizen science is still infrequently used as a primary tool for conservation research and the causes of this apparent disconnect have not been quantitatively evaluated. To uncover the barriers to the use of citizen science as a research tool, we surveyed professional biodiversity scientists (n = 423) and citizen science project managers (n = 125). We conducted three analyses using non-parametric recursive modeling (random forest), using questions that addressed: scientists' perceptions and preferences regarding citizen science, scientists' requirements for their own data, and the actual practices of citizen science projects. For all three analyses we identified the most important factors that influence the probability of publication using citizen science data. Four general barriers emerged: a narrow awareness among scientists of citizen science projects that match their needs; the fact that not all biodiversity science is well-suited for citizen science; inconsistency in data quality across citizen science projects; and bias among scientists for certain data sources (institutions and ages/education levels of data collectors). Notably, we find limited evidence to suggest a relationship between citizen science projects that satisfy scientists' biases and data quality or probability of publication. These results illuminate the need for greater visibility of citizen science practices with respect to the requirements of biodiversity science and show that addressing bias among scientists could improve application of citizen science in conservation.

Glaisdale Beck diversion scheme - channel change and suspended sediment response

This paper describes the implementation of a novel mitigation approach and subsequent adaptive management, designed to reduce the transfer of fine sediment in Glaisdale Beck; a small upland catchment in the UK. Hydro-meteorological and suspended sediment datasets are collected over a two year period spanning pre- and post-diversion periods in order to assess the impact of the channel reconfiguration scheme on the fluvial suspended sediment dynamics. Analysis of the river response demonstrates that the fluvial sediment system has become more restrictive with reduced fine sediment transfer. This is characterised by reductions in flow-weighted mean suspended sediment concentrations from 77.93 mg/l prior to mitigation, to 74.36 mg/l following the diversion. A Mann-Whitney U test found statistically significant differences (p < 0.001) between the pre- and post-monitoring median SSCs. Whilst application of one-way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) on the coefficients of sediment rating curves developed before and after the diversion found statistically significant differences (p < 0.001), with both Log a and b coefficients becoming smaller following the diversion. Non-parametric analysis indicates a reduction in residuals through time (p < 0.001), with the developed LOWESS model over-predicting sediment concentrations as the channel stabilises. However, the channel is continuing to adjust to the reconfigured morphology, with evidence of a headward propagating knickpoint which has migrated 120 m at an exponentially decreasing rate over the last 7 years since diversion. The study demonstrates that channel reconfiguration can be effective in mitigating fine sediment flux in upland streams but the full value of this may take many years to achieve whilst the fluvial system, slowly readjusts.

O estrategista em perspectiva: um estudo sobre o processo de formação de estratégias no ramo varejista de construção civil de Natal e região metropolitana

The strategy research have been widespread for many years and, more recently, the process of formation of the strategies in the individual perspective has also gained attention in academia. Confirming this trend, the goal of this study is to discuss the process of formation of the strategies from an individual perspective based on the three dimensions of the strategic process (change, thinking and formation) proposed by De Wit and Meyer (2004). To this end, this exploratory-descriptive study used the factor analysis techniques, non-parametric correlation and linear regression to analyze data collected from the decision makers of the 93 retail in the industry of construction supplies in the Natal and metropolitan area. As a result, we have that the formation factors of the dimensions investigated were identified in the majority, thus confirming the existence of paradoxes in the strategic process, and that there is a relationship between logical thinking and deliberate formation with the hierarchical level of decision makers.

Pressão de sono e perfil acadêmico de estudante de medicina do 1º período da UFRN

Academic demands, new social context, new routines and decrease of the parental control, are factors that may influence the sleep pattern of freshman students at the University. Medical students from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) have a full-time course, subjects with high-level content, and, at the first semester, classes begin at 7 a.m. This group composed by young adults who still suffering with delayed sleep phase, common in adolescence, indicating that this class schedule can be inappropriate at this age. The reduction of nocturnal sleep during school days, and the attempt to recover sleep on free days – social jet lag (JLS), suggests that in the first semester, students suffer from high sleep pressure. High sleep pressure may reflect on cognitive tasks and performance. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between sleep pressure and the academic profile of medical students from the first semester of UFRN, characterizing this population socio-demographically and investigating possible impacts on therestactivity rhytm and academic performance. A sample of 88 students, healthy men and women awswered the following questionnaires: Pittsburgh Sleep Quality (PSQI), Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS), Horne & Ostberg Chronotype (HO), Munich Chronotype (MCTQ) and “Health and Sleep” adapted. Actigraphy was used during 14 days to make actogramas and obtain non-parametric variables of the rest-activity rhythm and the grades of the morning schedule were used as academic performance. The JLS was used as a measure of sleep pressure. Statistics significance level was 95%. The population was sociodemographic homogeneous. Most students have healthy lifestyle, practice physical activity, use car to go to the university and take between 15 and 30 minutes for this route. Regarding CSV, most were classify as intermediate (38.6%) and evening (32%) chronotypes, needs to nap during the week, suffer daytime sleepiness and have poor sleep quality. 83% of the sample has at least 1h JLS, which led us to divide into two groups: Group <2h JLS (N = 44) and Group ≥ 2h JLS (N = 44). The groups have differences only in chronotype, showing that most evening individuals have more JLS, however, no differences were found in relation to sociodemographic aspect, rest-activity rhythm or academic performance. The homogeneity of the sample was limited to compare the groups, however, is alarming that students already present in the first half: JLG, poor sleep quality and excessive daytime sleepiness, which can be accentuated through the university years, with the emergence of night shifts and increased academic demand. Interventionsaddressingthe importance of good sleep habits and the change of the class start time are strategies aimed to improve student’s health.

Distribuição de derivados de petróleo por redes de polidutos: uma abordagem através de algoritmos evolucionários híbridos para um problema triobjetivo

An important problem faced by the oil industry is to distribute multiple oil products through pipelines. Distribution is done in a network composed of refineries (source nodes), storage parks (intermediate nodes), and terminals (demand nodes) interconnected by a set of pipelines transporting oil and derivatives between adjacent areas. Constraints related to storage limits, delivery time, sources availability, sending and receiving limits, among others, must be satisfied. Some researchers deal with this problem under a discrete viewpoint in which the flow in the network is seen as batches sending. Usually, there is no separation device between batches of different products and the losses due to interfaces may be significant. Minimizing delivery time is a typical objective adopted by engineers when scheduling products sending in pipeline networks. However, costs incurred due to losses in interfaces cannot be disregarded. The cost also depends on pumping expenses, which are mostly due to the electricity cost. Since industrial electricity tariff varies over the day, pumping at different time periods have different cost. This work presents an experimental investigation of computational methods designed to deal with the problem of distributing oil derivatives in networks considering three minimization objectives simultaneously: delivery time, losses due to interfaces and electricity cost. The problem is NP-hard and is addressed with hybrid evolutionary algorithms. Hybridizations are mainly focused on Transgenetic Algorithms and classical multi-objective evolutionary algorithm architectures such as MOEA/D, NSGA2 and SPEA2. Three architectures named MOTA/D, NSTA and SPETA are applied to the problem. An experimental study compares the algorithms on thirty test cases. To analyse the results obtained with the algorithms Pareto-compliant quality indicators are used and the significance of the results evaluated with non-parametric statistical tests.

Estimativas, variabilidade e análise de tendência da evapotranspiração de referência em perímetros irrigados, no semiárido do nordeste brasileiro

The variability / climate change has generated great concern worldwide, is one of the major issues as global warming, which can is affecting the availability of water resources in irrigated perimeters. In the semiarid region of Northeastern Brazil it is known that there is a predominance of drought, but it is not enough known about trends in climate series of joint water loss by evaporation and transpiration (evapotranspiration). Therefore, this study aimed to analyze whether there is increase and / or decrease evidence in the regime of reference evapotranspiration (ETo), for the monthly, annual and interdecadal scales in irrigated polo towns of Juazeiro, BA (9 ° 24'S, 40 ° 26'W and 375,5m) and Petrolina, PE (09 ° 09'S, 40 ° 22'W and 376m), which is the main analysis objective. The daily meteorological data were provided by EMBRAPA Semiárido for the period from 01.01.1976 to 31.12.2014, estimated the daily ETo using the standard method of Penman-Monteith (EToPM) parameterized by Smith (1991). Other methods of more simplified estimatives were calculated and compared to EToPM, as the ones following: Solar Radiation (EToRS), Linacre (EToL), Hargreaves and Samani (EToHS) and the method of Class A pan (EToTCA). The main statistical analysis were non-parametric tests of homogeneity (Run), trend (Mann-kendall), magnitude of the trend (Sen) and early trend detection (Mann-Whitney). The statistical significance adopted was 5 and / or 1%. The Analysis of Variance - ANOVA was used to detect if there is a significant difference in mean interdecadal mean. For comparison between the methods of ETo, it were used the correlation test (r), the Student t test and Tukey levels of 5% significance. Finally, statistics Willmott et al. (1985) statistics was used to evaluate the concordance index and performance of simplified methods compared to the standard method. It obtained as main results that there was a decrease in the time series of EToPM in irrigated areas of Juazeiro, BA and Petrolina, PE, significant respectively at 1 and 5%, with an annual magnitude of -14.5 mm (Juazeiro) and -7.7 mm (Petrolina) and early trend in 1996. The methods which had better for better agreement with EToPM were EToRS with very good performance, in both locations, followed by the method of EToL with good performance (Juazeiro) and median (Petrolina). EToHS had the worst performance (bad) for both locations. It is suggested that this decrease of EToPM can be associated with the increase in irrigated agricultural areas and the construction of Sobradinho lake upstream of the perimeters.

Anomaly detection from time-changing environmental sensor data streams

This thesis stems from the project with real-time environmental monitoring company EMSAT Corporation. They were looking for methods to automatically ag spikes and other anomalies in their environmental sensor data streams. The problem presents several challenges: near real-time anomaly detection, absence of labeled data and time-changing data streams. Here, we address this problem using both a statistical parametric approach as well as a non-parametric approach like Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). The main contribution of this thesis is extending the KDE to work more effectively for evolving data streams, particularly in presence of concept drift. To address that, we have developed a framework for integrating Adaptive Windowing (ADWIN) change detection algorithm with KDE. We have tested this approach on several real world data sets and received positive feedback from our industry collaborator. Some results appearing in this thesis have been presented at ECML PKDD 2015 Doctoral Consortium.

An allocation Malmquist index with an application in the China securities industry

This paper proposes an allocation Malmquist index which is inspired by the work on the non-parametric cost Malmquist index. We first show that how to decompose the cost Malmquist index into the input-oriented Malmquist index and the allocation Malmquist index. An application in corporate management of the China securities industry with the panel data set of 40 securities companies during the period 2005–2011 shows the practicality of the propose model.

Smoking and dietary inadequacy among Inuvialuit women of child bearing age in the Northwest Territories, Canada

Objective. The prevalence of smoking in Aboriginal Canadians is higher than non-Aboriginal Canadians, a behavior that also tends to alter dietary patterns. Compared with the general Canadian population, maternal smoking rates are almost twice as high. The aim of this study was to compare dietary adequacy of Inuvialuit women of childbearing age comparing smokers versus non-smokers. Research methods & procedures. A cross-sectional study, where participants completed a culturally specific quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Non-parametric analysis was used to compare mean nutrient intake, dietary inadequacy and differences in nutrient density among smokers and non-smokers. Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed for key nutrients inadequacy and smoking status. Data was collected from three communities in the Beaufort Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada from randomly selected Inuvialuit women of childbearing age (19-44 years). Results: Of 92 participants, 75% reported being smokers. There were no significant differences in age, BMI, marital status, education, number of people in household working and/or number of self employed, and physical activity between smokers and non-smokers. Non-parametric analysis showed no differences in nutrient intake between smokers and non-smokers. Logistic regression however revealed there was a positive association between smoking and inadequacies of vitamin C (OR = 2.91, 95% CI, 1.17-5.25), iron (OR = 3.16, 95% CI, 1.27-5.90), and zinc (OR = 2.78, 95% CI, 1.12-4.94). A high percentage of women (>60%), regardless of smoking status, did not meet the dietary recommendations for fiber, vitamin D, E and potassium. Conclusions: This study provides evidence of inadequate dietary intake among Inuvialuit of childbearing age regardless of smoking behavior.

Text-messaging as a Tool for Medication Adherence and Behavior Change in Disease Management among Patients with Coronary Heart Disease

Background: Evidence-based medication and lifestyle modification are important for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease but are underutilized. Mobile health strategies could address this gap but existing evidence is mixed. Therefore, we piloted a pre-post study to assess the impact of patient-directed text messages as a means of improving medication adherence and modifying major health risk behaviors among coronary heart disease (CHD) patients in Hainan, China.

Methods: 92 CVD patients were surveyed between June and August 2015 (before the intervention) and then between October and December 2015 (after 12 week intervention) about (a) medication use (b) smoking status,(c) fruit and vegetable consumption, and (d) physical activity uptake. Acceptability of text-messaging intervention was assessed at follow-up. Descriptive statistics, along with paired comparisons between the pre and post outcomes were conducted using both parametric (t-test) and non-parametric (Wilcoxon signed rank test) methods.

Results: The number of respondents at follow-up was 82 (89% retention rate). Significant improvements were observed for medication adherence (P<0.001) and for the number of cigarettes smoked per day (P=.022). However there was no change in the number of smokers who quitted smoking at follow-up. There were insignificant changes for physical activity (P=0.91) and fruit and vegetable consumption.

Impact of protected forests on rural household fuel tree planting and deforestation: Chiro District, Ethiopia

This study aims at exploring the potential impact of forest protection intervention on rural households’ private fuel tree planting in Chiro district of eastern Ethiopia. The study results revealed a robust and significant positive impact of the intervention on farmers’ decisions to produce private household energy by growing fuel trees on their farm. As participation in private fuel tree planting is not random, the study confronts a methodological issue in investigating the causal effect of forest protection intervention on rural farm households’ private fuel tree planting through non-parametric propensity score matching (PSM) method. The protection intervention on average has increased fuel tree planting by 503 (580.6%) compared to open access areas and indirectly contributed to slowing down the loss of biodiversity in the area. Land cover/use is a dynamic phenomenon that changes with time and space due to anthropogenic pressure and development. Forest cover and land use changes in Chiro District, Ethiopia over a period of 40 years was studied using remotely sensed data. Multi temporal satellite data of Landsat was used to map and monitor forest cover and land use changes occurred during three point of time of 1972,1986 and 2012. A pixel base supervised image classification was used to map land use land cover classes for maps of both time set. The result of change detection analysis revealed that the area has shown a remarkable land cover/land use changes in general and forest cover change in particular. Specifically, the dense forest cover land declined from 235 ha in 1972 to 51 ha in 1986. However, government interventions in forest protection in 1989 have slowed down the drastic change of dense forest cover loss around the protected area through reclaiming 1,300 hectares of deforested land through reforestation program up to 2012.

The Most Complete Photometric Analysis of 548 CALIFA Galaxies

We present an extensive photometric catalog for 548 CALIFA galaxies observed as of the summer of 2015. CALIFA is currently lacking photometry matching the scale and diversity of its spectroscopy; this work is intended to meet all photometric needs for CALIFA galaxies while also identifying best photometric practices for upcoming integral field spectroscopy surveys such as SAMI and MaNGA. This catalog comprises gri surface brightness profiles derived from Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) imaging, a variety of non-parametric quantities extracted from these pro files, and parametric models fitted to the i-band pro files (1D) and original galaxy images (2D). To compliment our photometric analysis, we contrast the relative performance of our 1D and 2D modelling approaches. The ability of each measurement to characterize the global properties of galaxies is quantitatively assessed, in the context of constructing the tightest scaling relations. Where possible, we compare our photometry with existing photometrically or spectroscopically obtained measurements from the literature. Close agreement is found with Walcher et al. (2014), the current source of basic photometry and classifications of CALIFA galaxies, while comparisons with spectroscopically derived quantities reveals the effect of CALIFA's limited field of view compared to broadband imaging surveys such as the SDSS. The colour-magnitude diagram, star formation main sequence, and Tully-Fisher relation of CALIFA galaxies are studied, to give a small example of the investigations possible with this rich catalog. We conclude with a discussion of points of concern for ongoing integral field spectroscopy surveys and directions for future expansion and exploitation of this work.

Presence and possible cause of periodicities in 20th-century extreme coastal surge: Belfast Harbour, Northern Ireland.

Identifying 20th-century periodic coastal surge variation is strategic for the 21st-century coastal surge estimates, as surge periodicities may amplify/reduce future MSL enhanced surge forecasts. Extreme coastal surge data from Belfast Harbour (UK) tide gauges are available for 1901–2010 and provide the potential for decadal-plus periodic coastal surge analysis. Annual extreme surge-elevation distributions (sampled every 10-min) are analysed using PCA and cluster analysis to decompose variation within- and between-years to assess similarity of years in terms of Surge Climate Types, and to establish significance of any transitions in Type occurrence over time using non-parametric Markov analysis. Annual extreme surge variation is shown to be periodically organised across the 20th century. Extreme surge magnitude and distribution show a number of significant cyclonic induced multi-annual (2, 3, 5 & 6 years) cycles, as well as dominant multi-decadal (15–25 years) cycles of variation superimposed on an 80 year fluctuation in atmospheric–oceanic variation across the North Atlantic (relative to NAO/AMO interaction). The top 30 extreme surge events show some relationship with NAO per se, given that 80% are associated with westerly dominant atmospheric flows (+ NAO), but there are 20% of the events associated with blocking air massess (− NAO). Although 20% of the top 30 ranked positive surges occurred within the last twenty years, there is no unequivocal evidence of recent acceleration in extreme surge magnitude related to other than the scale of natural periodic variation.