Inductive-Capacitive Resonant Circuit Sensors for Structural Health and Environmental Monitoring

Inductive-capacitive (LC) resonant circuit sensors are low-cost, wireless, durable, simple to fabricate and battery-less. Consequently, they are well suited to sensing applications in harsh environments or in situations where large numbers of sensors are needed. They are also advantageous in applications where access to the sensor is limited or impossible or when sensors are needed on a disposable basis. Due to their many advantages, LC sensors have been used for sensing a variety of parameters including humidity, temperature, chemical concentrations, pH, stress/pressure, strain, food quality and even biological growth. However, current versions of the LC sensor technology are limited to sensing only one parameter. The purpose of this work is to develop new types of LC sensor systems that are simpler to fabricate (hence lower cost) or capable of monitoring multiple parameters simultaneously. One design presented in this work, referred to as the multi-element LC sensor, is able to measure multiple parameters simultaneously using a second capacitive element. Compared to conventional LC sensors, this design can sense multiple parameters with a higher detection range than two independent sensors while maintaining the same overall sensor footprint. In addition, the two-element sensor does not suffer from interference issues normally encountered while implementing two LC sensors in close proximity. Another design, the single-spiral inductive-capacitive sensor, utilizes the parasitic capacitance of a coil or spring structure to form a single layer LC resonant circuit. Unlike conventional LC sensors, this design is truly planar, thus simplifying its fabrication process and reducing sensor cost. Due to the simplicity of this sensor layout it will be easier and more cost-effective for embedding in common building or packaging materials during manufacturing processes, thereby adding functionality to current products (such as drywall sheets) while having a minor impact on overall unit cost. These modifications to the LC sensor design significantly improve the functionality and commercial feasibility of this technology, especially for applications where a large array of sensors or multiple sensing parameters are required.

STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELING AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FOR FUTURE CO-DEVELOPMENT OF MADAGASCAR’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND PEOPLE

Madagascar’s terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have long supported a unique set of ecological communities, many of whom are endemic to the tropical island. Those same ecosystems have been a source of valuable natural resources to some of the poorest people in the world. Nevertheless, with pride, ingenuity and resourcefulness, the Malagasy people of the southwest coast, being of Vezo identity, subsist with low development fishing techniques aimed at an increasingly threatened host of aquatic seascapes. Mangroves, sea grass bed, and coral reefs of the region are under increased pressure from the general populace for both food provisions and support of economic opportunity. Besides purveyors and extractors, the coastal waters are also subject to a number of natural stressors, including cyclones and invasive, predator species of both flora and fauna. In addition, the aquatic ecosystems of the region are undergoing increased nutrient and sediment runoff due, in part, to Madagascar’s heavy reliance on land for agricultural purposes (Scales, 2011). Moreover, its coastal waters, like so many throughout the world, have been proven to be warming at an alarming rate over the past few decades. In recognizing the intimate interconnectedness of the both the social and ecological systems, conservation organizations have invoked a host of complimentary conservation and social development efforts with the dual aim of preserving or restoring the health of both the coastal ecosystems and the people of the region. This paper provides a way of thinking more holistically about the social-ecological system within a resiliency frame of understanding. Secondly, it applies a platform known as state-and-transition modeling to give form to the process. State-and-transition modeling is an iterative investigation into the physical makeup of a system of study as well as the boundaries and influences on that state, and has been used in restorative ecology for more than a decade. Lastly, that model is sited within an adaptive management scheme that provides a structured, cyclical, objective-oriented process for testing stakeholders cognitive understanding of the ecosystem through a pragmatic implementation and monitoring a host of small-scale interventions developed as part of the adaptive management process. Throughout, evidence of the application of the theories and frameworks are offered, with every effort made to retool conservation-minded development practitioners with a comprehensive strategy for addressing the increasingly fragile social-ecological systems of southwest Madagascar. It is offered, in conclusion, that the seascapes of the region would be an excellent case study worthy of future application of state-and-transition modeling and adaptive management as frameworks for conservation-minded development practitioners whose multiple projects, each with its own objective, have been implemented with a single goal in mind: preserve and protect the state of the supporting environment while providing for the basic needs of the local Malagasy people.

Effectiveness of Colors used on Safety and Health Signs for Communicating Severity of Injury

Signs are used extensively in workplaces and on products to identify hazards and provide instructions for appropriate behavior. A fundamental element of these signs is the signal-word panel located at the top of the sign. The colors and words in this panel are intended to convey information about the hazard identified. One type of hazard information concerns the severity of injury/illness associated with the hazard. The standard of the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) for facility signs uses three severity categories: 1) death or serious injury, 2) minor or moderate injury, and 3) property damage. The standard specifies which signal-word panel format, including color, to use based in part on the severity category. The purpose of this study was to determine if college students associate color with severity. The sample population consisted of 59 students tested in nine small groups. Twelve signs were shown to them in random order. Five of the signs had a color for the background of the signal-word panel. The colors were red, orange, yellow, blue, and gray. The signal word was a nonsense word and the text panel contained repetitions of the letter x in sentence format. Subject rated their impressions of the colors using two ordered rating scales for severity. Results indicated that color had a highly significant effect on severity ratings. Median ratings were generally consistent with the ANSI standard, except for orange. Red rated highest on both scales. Blue and gray rated lowest. Yellow and orange were in between red and blue. According to the ANSI standard, orange should indicate the same severity as red. These results indicated that orange was associated with less severity than red. Apparently, the ANSI standard's use of orange to identify a hazard associated with death or a serious injury is questionable.

[Smokeless tobacco: a new risk factor for oral health? A review]

Due to migration of different ethnic groups, mainly from Africa and Asia, into Switzerland, many traditional products and habits that have not been seen before were also introduced. Smokeless tobacco (ST)--as one of those habits--is a product of increased use in Switzerland, although no sound epidemiological data are presently available. Numerous studies from North-America, Sweden, Asia and Africa could verify the carcinogenic potency of smokeless tobacco and its effects in the developement of oral cancer and different systemic disorders. For dental professionals and their team it is important to detect ST-associated lesions, and to tell the patients about the potential harmful sequelae of ST products. The present review focusses on the different types of RT products and their effects on oral health.

Concise synthesis of two trisaccharide analogs related to the glycone constituent of Phanoside, a novel insulin releasing natural product

Two trisaccharides (2 and 3) related to related to the glycone part of Phanoside, an insulin release stimulator have been synthesized in excellent yield.

Valorization of agrobiodiversity products and strengthening of local identities in the Peruvian Andes: Experiences from the BioAndes Programme

In the Peruvian Andes, a long history of interaction between the local populations and their natural environment has led to extraordinary levels of agrobiodiversity. However, in sharp contrast with this biological wealth, Andean indigenous populations live under most precarious conditions. Moreover, natural resources are undergoing severe degradation processes and local knowledge about biodiversity management is under serious pressure. Against this background, the BioAndes Programme is developing initiatives based on a biocultural approach that aim at fostering biodiversity through the enhancement of cultural processes. On the basis of intercultural dialogue, joint learning and capacity development, and transdisciplinary action-research, indigenous communities, development practitioners, and researchers strive for the creation of innovative ways to contribute to more sustainable economic, socio-cultural, and political valorization of Andean biodiversity. Project activities are diverse and range from the cultivation, transformation, and commercialization of organic Andean fruits in San Marcos, Cajamarca Department, to the recuperation of natural dying techniques for alpaca wool and traditional weaving in Pitumarca, Cusco Department, and the promotion of responsible ecotourism in both regions. Based on the projects’ first two-years of experience, the following lessons learnt will be presented and discussed: 1. The economic valorization and commercialization of local products can be a powerful tool for the revival and innovation of eroded know-how; at the same time it contributes to the strengthening of local identities, in parallel with the empowerment of marginalized groups such as smallholders and women. 2. Such initiatives are only successful when they are embedded within activities that go beyond the focus on local products and seek the valorization of the entire natural and cultural landscape (e.g. through the promotion of agrotourism and local gastronomy, more sustainable management of local resources including the restoration of ecosystems, and the realization of inventories of local agrobiodiversity and the knowledge related to it). 3. The sustainability of these initiatives, which are often externally induced, is conditioned by the ability of local actors to acquire ownership of projects and access to the knowledge required to carry them out, which also means developing the personal and institutional capacities for handling the whole chain from production to commercialization. 4. The confrontation of different economic rationalities and their underlying worldviews that occur when local or indigenous people integrate into the market economy implies the need for a dialogical co-production of knowledge and collective action by local people, experts from NGOs, and political authorities in order to better control the conditions relating to the market economy. The valorization of local agrobiodiversity shows much potential for enhancing natural and cultural diversity in Southern countries, but only when local communities can participate in the shaping of the conditions under which this happens. Such activities should be designed in the mid- to long-term as part of social learning processes that are carefully embedded in the local context. Supporting institutions play a crucial role in these processes, but should see themselves only as facilitators, while ensuring that control and ownership remain with the local actors.

Risk scoring for setting priorities in a monitoring of antimicrobial resistance in meat and meat products

Meat and meat products can be contaminated with different species of bacteria resistant to various antimicrobials. The human health risk of a type of meat or meat product carry by emerging antimicrobial resistance depends on (i) the prevalence of contamination with resistant bacteria, (ii) the human health consequences of an infection with a specific bacterium resistant to a specific antimicrobial and (iii) the consumption volume of a specific product. The objective of this study was to compare the risk for consumers arising from their exposure to antibiotic resistant bacteria from meat of four different types (chicken, pork, beef and veal), distributed in four different product categories (fresh meat, frozen meat, dried raw meat products and heat-treated meat products). A semi-quantitative risk assessment model, evaluating each food chain step, was built in order to get an estimated score for the prevalence of Campylobacter spp., Enterococcus spp. and Escherichia coli in each product category. To assess human health impact, nine combinations of bacterial species and antimicrobial agents were considered based on a published risk profile. The combination of the prevalence at retail, the human health impact and the amount of meat or product consumed, provided the relative proportion of total risk attributed to each category of product, resulting in a high, medium or low human health risk. According to the results of the model, chicken (mostly fresh and frozen meat) contributed 6.7% of the overall risk in the highest category and pork (mostly fresh meat and dried raw meat products) contributed 4.0%. The contribution of beef and veal was of 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. The results were tested and discussed for single parameter changes of the model. This risk assessment was a useful tool for targeting antimicrobial resistance monitoring to those meat product categories where the expected risk for public health was greater.

Five-year results evaluating the effects of platelet-rich plasma on the healing of intrabony defects treated with enamel matrix derivative and natural bone mineral

BACKGROUND Regenerative periodontal surgery using the combination of enamel matrix derivative (EMD) and natural bone mineral (NBM) with and without addition of platelet-rich plasma (PRP) has been shown to result in substantial clinical improvements, but the long-term effects of this combination are unknown. METHODS The goal of this study was to evaluate the long-term (5-year) outcomes after regenerative surgery of deep intrabony defects with either EMD + NBM + PRP or EMD + NBM. Twenty-four patients were included. In each patient, one intrabony defect was randomly treated with either EMD + NBM + PRP or EMD + NBM. Clinical parameters were evaluated at baseline and 1 and 5 years after treatment. The primary outcome variable was clinical attachment level (CAL). RESULTS The sites treated with EMD + NBM + PRP demonstrated a mean CAL change from 10.5 ± 1.6 to 6.0 ± 1.7 mm (P <0.001) at 1 year and 6.2 ± 1.5 mm (P <0.001) at 5 years. EMD + NBM-treated defects showed a mean CAL change from 10.6 ± 1.7 to 6.1 ± 1.5 mm (P <0.001) at 1 year and 6.3 ± 1.4 mm (P <0.001) at 5 years. At 1 year, a CAL gain of ≥4 mm was measured in 83% (10 of 12) of the defects treated with EMD + NBM + PRP and in 100% (all 12) of the defects treated with EMD + NBM. Compared to baseline, in both groups at 5 years, a CAL gain of ≥4 mm was measured in 75% (nine of 12 in each group) of the defects. Four sites in the EMD + PRP + NBM group lost 1 mm of the CAL gained at 1 year. In the EMD + NBM group, one defect lost 2 mm and four other defects lost 1 mm of the CAL gained at 1 year. No statistically significant differences in any of the investigated parameters were observed between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS Within their limits, the present results indicate that: 1) the clinical outcomes obtained with both treatments can be maintained up to a period of 5 years; and 2) the use of PRP does not appear to improve the results obtained with EMD + NBM.

Ten-year results following treatment of intrabony defects with an enamel matrix protein derivative combined with either a natural bone mineral or a β-tricalcium phosphate

BACKGROUND The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the 10-year results following treatment of intrabony defects treated with an enamel matrix protein derivative (EMD) combined with either a natural bone mineral (NBM) or β-tricalcium phosphate (β-TCP). METHODS Twenty-two patients with advanced chronic periodontitis and displaying one deep intrabony defect were randomly treated with a combination of either EMD + NBM or EMD + β-TCP. Clinical evaluations were performed at baseline and at 1 and 10 years. The following parameters were evaluated: plaque index, bleeding on probing, probing depth, gingival recession, and clinical attachment level (CAL). The primary outcome variable was CAL. RESULTS The defects treated with EMD + NBM demonstrated a mean CAL change from 8.9 ± 1.5 mm to 5.3 ± 0.9 mm (P <0.001) and to 5.8 ± 1.1 mm (P <0.001) at 1 and 10 years, respectively. The sites treated with EMD + β-TCP showed a mean CAL change from 9.1 ± 1.6 mm to 5.4 ± 1.1 mm (P <0.001) at 1 year and 6.1 ± 1.4 mm (P <0.001) at 10 years. At 10 years two defects in the EMD + NBM group had lost 2 mm, whereas two other defects had lost 1 mm of the CAL gained at 1 year. In the EMD + β-TCP group three defects had lost 2 mm, whereas two other defects had lost 1 mm of the CAL gained at 1 year. Compared with baseline, at 10 years, a CAL gain of ≥3 mm was measured in 64% (i.e., seven of 11) of the defects in the EMD + NBM group and in 82% (i.e., nine of 11) of the defects in the EMD + β-TCP group. No statistically significant differences were found between the 1- and 10-year values in either of the two groups. Between the treatment groups, no statistically significant differences in any of the investigated parameters were observed at 1 and 10 years. CONCLUSION Within their limitations, the present findings indicate that the clinical improvements obtained with regenerative surgery using EMD + NBM or EMD + β-TCP can be maintained over a period of 10 years.

Synthetic versus natural curcumin: bioequivalence in an in vitro oral mucositis model

BACKGROUND Curcumin (CUR) is a dietary spice and food colorant (E100). Its potent anti-inflammatory activity by inhibiting the activation of Nuclear Factor-kappaB is well established. METHODS The aim of this study was to compare natural purified CUR (nCUR) with synthetically manufactured CUR (sCUR) with respect to their capacity to inhibit detrimental effects in an in vitro model of oral mucositis. The hypothesis was to demonstrate bioequivalence of nCUR and sCUR. RESULTS The purity of sCUR was HPLC-confirmed. Adherence and invasion assays for bacteria to human pharyngeal epithelial cells demonstrated equivalence of nCUR and sCUR. Standard assays also demonstrated an identical inhibitory effect on pro-inflammatory cytokine/chemokine secretion (e.g., interleukin-8, interleukin-6) by Detroit pharyngeal cells exposed to bacterial stimuli. There was bioequivalence of sCUR and nCUR with respect to their antibacterial effects against various pharyngeal species. CONCLUSION nCUR and sCUR are equipotent in in vitro assays mimicking aspects of oral mucositis. The advantages of sCUR include that it is odorless and tasteless, more easily soluble in DMSO, and that it is a single, highly purified molecule, lacking the batch-to-batch variation of CUR content in nCUR. sCUR is a promising agent for the development of an oral anti-mucositis agent.

Natural history of optical coherence tomography-detected non-flow-limiting edge dissections following drug-eluting stent implantation

Aims: Angiographic evidence of edge dissections has been associated with a risk of early stent thrombosis. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a high-resolution technology detecting a greater number of edge dissections -particularly non-flow-limiting- compared to angiography. Their natural history and clinical implications remain unclear. The objectives of the present study were to assess the morphology, healing response, and clinical outcomes of OCT-detected edge dissections using serial OCT imaging at baseline and at one year following drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation. Methods and results: Edge dissections were defined as disruptions of the luminal surface in the 5 mm segments proximal and distal to the stent, and categorised as flaps, cavities, double-lumen dissections or fissures. Qualitative and quantitative OCT analyses were performed every 0.5 mm at baseline and one year, and clinical outcomes were assessed. Sixty-three lesions (57 patients) were studied with OCT at baseline and one-year follow-up. Twenty-two non-flow-limiting edge dissections in 21 lesions (20 patients) were identified by OCT; only two (9%) were angiographically visible. Flaps were found in 96% of cases. The median longitudinal dissection length was 2.9 mm (interquartile range [IQR] 1.6-4.2 mm), whereas the circumferential and axial extensions amounted to 1.2 mm (IQR: 0.9-1.7 mm) and 0.6 mm (IQR: 0.4-0.7 mm), respectively. Dissections extended into the media and adventitia in seven (33%) and four (20%) cases, respectively. Eighteen (82%) OCT-detected edge dissections were also evaluated with intravascular ultrasound which identified nine (50%) of these OCT-detected dissections. No stent thrombosis or target lesion revascularisation occurred up to one year. At follow-up, 20 (90%) edge dissections were completely healed on OCT. The two cases exhibiting persistent dissection had the longest flaps (2.81 mm and 2.42 mm) at baseline. Conclusions: OCT-detected edge dissections which are angiographically silent in the majority of cases are not associated with acute stent thrombosis or restenosis up to one-year follow-up.

Gonadotrophin stimulation for in vitro fertilization significantly alters the hormone milieu in follicular fluid: a comparative study between natural cycle IVF and conventional IVF.

STUDY QUESTION Is the steroid hormone profile in follicular fluid (FF) at the time of oocyte retrieval different in naturally matured follicles, as in natural cycle IVF (NC-IVF), compared with follicles stimulated with conventional gonadotrophin stimulated IVF (cIVF)? SUMMARY ANSWER Anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH), testosterone (T) and estradiol (E2) concentrations are ∼3-fold higher, androstenedione (A2) is ∼1.5-fold higher and luteinizing hormone (LH) is ∼14-fold higher in NC-IVF than in cIVF follicles, suggesting an alteration of the follicular metabolism in conventional gonadotrophin stimulated IVF. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY In conventional IVF, the implantation rate of unselected embryos appears to be lower than in NC-IVF, which is possibly due to negative effects of the stimulation regimen on follicular metabolism. In NC-IVF, the intrafollicular concentration of AMH has been shown to be positively correlated with the oocyte fertilization and implantation rates. Furthermore, androgen treatment seems to improve the ovarian response in low responders. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION This cross-sectional study involving 36 NC-IVF and 40 cIVF cycles was performed from 2011 to 2013. Within this population, 13 women each underwent 1 NC-IVF and 1 cIVF cycle. cIVF was performed by controlled ovarian stimulation with HMG and GnRH antagonists. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Follicular fluid was collected from the leading follicles. AMH, T, A2, dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), E2, FSH, LH and progesterone (P) were determined by immunoassays in 76 women. Aromatase activity in follicular fluid cells was analysed by a tritiated water release assay in 33 different women. For statistical analysis, the non-parametric Mann-Whitney U or Wilcoxon tests were used. MAIN RESULTS AND ROLE OF CHANCE In follicular fluid from NC-IVF and from cIVF, median levels were 32.8 and 10.7 pmol/l for AMH (P < 0.0001), 47.2 and 18.8 µmol/l for T (P < 0.0001), 290 and 206 nmol/l for A2 (P = 0.0035), 6.7 and 5.6 pg/ml for DHEA (n.s.), 3292 and 1225 nmol/l for E2 (P < 0.0001), 4.9 and 7.2 mU/ml for FSH (P < 0.05), 14.4 and 0.9 mU/ml for LH (P < 0.0001) and 62 940 and 54 710 nmol/l for P (n.s.), respectively. Significant differences in follicular fluid concentrations for AMH, E2 and LH were also found in the 13 patients who underwent both NC-IVF and cIVF when they were analysed separately in pairs. Hormone analysis in serum excluded any relevant impact of AMH, T, A2, and E2 serum concentration on the follicular fluid hormone concentrations. Median serum concentrations were 29.4 and 0.9 mU/ml for LH (P < 0.0001) and 2.7 and 23.5 nmol/l for P (P < 0.0001) after NC-IVF and c-IVF, respectively. Positive correlations were seen for FF-AMH with FF-T (r = 0.35, P = 0.0002), FF-T with FF-LH (r = 0.48, P < 0.0001) and FF-E2 with FF-T (r = 0.75, P < 0.0001). The analysis of aromatase activity was not different in NC-IVF and cIVF follicular cells. LIMITATION, REASONS FOR CAUTION Any association between the hormone concentrations and the implantation potential of the oocytes could not be investigated as the oocytes in cIVF were not treated individually in the IVF laboratory. Since both c-IVF and NC-IVF follicles were stimulated by hCG before retrieval, the endocrine milieu in the natural cycle does not represent the pure physiological situation. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS The endocrine follicular milieu and the concentration of putative markers of oocyte quality, such as AMH, are significantly different in gonadotrophin-stimulated conventional IVF compared with natural cycle IVF. This could be a cause for the suggested lower oocyte quality in cIVF compared with naturally matured oocytes. The reasons for the reduced AMH concentration might be low serum and follicular fluid LH concentrations due to LH suppression, leading initially to low follicular androgen concentrations and then to low follicular AMH production. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS Funding for this study was obtained from public universities (for salaries) and private industry (for consumables). Additionally, the study was supported by an unrestricted grant from MSD Merck Sharp & Dohme GmbH and IBSA Institut Biochimique SA. The authors are clinically involved in low-dose monofollicular stimulation and IVF therapies, using gonadotrophins from all gonadotrophin distributors on the Swiss market, including Institut Biochimique SA and MSD Merck Sharp & Dohme GmbH. Otherwise, the authors have no competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER Not applicable.

Two new flavonol glycosides and a metabolite profile of Bryophyllum pinnatum, a phytotherapeutic used in obstetrics and gynaecology

Bryophyllum pinnatum is a succulent perennial plant native to Madagascar which is used in anthroposophical medicine to treat psychiatric disorders and as a tocolytic agent to prevent premature labour. We performed a metabolite profiling study in order to obtain a comprehensive picture of the constituents in B. pinnatum leaves and to identify chromatographic markers for quality control and safety assessment of medicinal preparations. Preliminary HPLC-PDA-ESIMS analyses revealed that flavonoid glycosides were the main UV-absorbing constituents in the MeOH extract of B. pinnatum. Two phenolic glucosides, syringic acid β-D-glucopyranosyl ester (1) and 4'-O-β-D-glucopyranosyl-cis-p-coumaric acid (2), as well as nine flavonoids (3-11) including kaempferol, quercetin, myricetin, acacetin, and diosmetin glycosides were unambiguously identified by 1H and 2D NMR analysis after isolation from a MeOH extract. The flavonol glycosides quercetin 3-O-α-L-arabinopyranosyl-(1 → 2)-α-L-rhamnopyranoside 7-O-β-D-glucopyranoside (3) and myricetin 3-O-α-L-arabinopyranosyl-(1 → 2)-α-L-rhamnopyranoside (4) were new natural products. With the aid of HPLC-PDA-APCIMS and authentic references isolated from the related species B. daigremontianum, the presence of four bufadienolides, bersaldegenin-1-acetate (12), bryophyllin A (13), bersaldegenin-3-acetate (14), and bersaldegenin-1,3,5-orthoacetate (15) was detected in B. pinnatum.

Parentage analysis with genetic markers in natural populations. I. The expected proportion of offspring with unambiguous paternity.

Recent studies indicate that polymorphic genetic markers are potentially helpful in resolving genealogical relationships among individuals in a natural population. Genetic data provide opportunities for paternity exclusion when genotypic incompatibilities are observed among individuals, and the present investigation examines the resolving power of genetic markers in unambiguous positive determination of paternity. Under the assumption that the mother for each offspring in a population is unambiguously known, an analytical expression for the fraction of males excluded from paternity is derived for the case where males and females may be derived from two different gene pools. This theoretical formulation can also be used to predict the fraction of births for each of which all but one male can be excluded from paternity. We show that even when the average probability of exclusion approaches unity, a substantial fraction of births yield equivocal mother-father-offspring determinations. The number of loci needed to increase the frequency of unambiguous determinations to a high level is beyond the scope of current electrophoretic studies in most species. Applications of this theory to electrophoretic data on Chamaelirium luteum (L.) shows that in 2255 offspring derived from 273 males and 70 females, only 57 triplets could be unequivocally determined with eight polymorphic protein loci, even though the average combined exclusionary power of these loci was 73%. The distribution of potentially compatible male parents, based on multilocus genotypes, was reasonably well predicted from the allele frequency data available for these loci. We demonstrate that genetic paternity analysis in natural populations cannot be reliably based on exclusionary principles alone. In order to measure the reproductive contributions of individuals in natural populations, more elaborate likelihood principles must be deployed.