Workshop on climate change and salmon production, Vancouver, March 26-27, 1998: technical report

The Workshop on Climate Change and Salmon Production was held in Vancouver, Canada, 26-27 March 1998. The Workshop was organized and sponsored by the North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission (NPAFC). Each Party to the Commission designated one scientist to the Workshop Steering Committee. Each member of the Steering Committee chaired one half-day session of the Workshop. All necessary arrangements were made by the NPAFC Secretariat in cooperation with the Steering Committee and the Canadian Party to the Commission. (PDF contains 60 pages) Over 70 scientists, industry representatives and fisheries officials attended the Workshop. There were 20 presentations of scientific papers followed by the discussion sessions. Extended abstracts are included in this Technical Report, which also contains opening address by the Chairman of the Steering Committee and short review of the Workshop by the Coordinator. The material presented in the Technical Report has not been peer reviewed and does not necessarily reflect the views of either the NPAFC or the Parties. The material has been edited by the technical editor for clarity and publication purposes only. Items in this Report should not be cited except as personal communication and with the author's permission.

I. Foehn winds of southern California. II. Foehn wind cyclo-genesis. III. Weather conditions associated with the Akron disaster. IV. The Los Angeles storm of December 30, 1933 to January 1, 1934

I. Foehn winds of southern California.
An investigation of the hot, dry and dust laden winds occurring in the late fall and early winter in the Los Angeles Basin and attributed in the past to the influences of the desert regions to the north revealed that these currents were of a foehn nature. Their properties were found to be entirely due to dynamical heating produced in the descent from the high level areas in the interior to the lower Los Angeles Basin. Any dust associated with the phenomenon was found to be acquired from the Los Angeles area rather than transported from the desert. It was found that the frequency of occurrence of a mild type foehn of this nature during this season was sufficient to warrant its classification as a winter monsoon. This results from the topography of the Los Angeles region which allows an easy entrance to the air from the interior by virtue of the low level mountain passes north of the area. This monsoon provides the mild winter climate of southern California since temperatures associated with the foehn currents are far higher than those experienced when maritime air from the adjacent Pacific Ocean occupies the region.

II. Foehn wind cyclo-genesis.
Intense anticyclones frequently build up over the high level regions of the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau which lie between the Sierra Nevada and Cascade Mountains to the west and the Rocky Mountains to the east. The outflow from these anticyclones produce extensive foehns east of the Rockies in the comparatively low level areas of the middle west and the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Normally at this season of the year very cold polar continental air masses are present over this territory and with the occurrence of these foehns marked discontinuity surfaces arise between the warm foehn current, which is obliged to slide over a colder mass, and the Pc air to the east. Cyclones are easily produced from this phenomenon and take the form of unstable waves which propagate along the discontinuity surface between the two dissimilar masses. A continual series of such cyclones was found to occur as long as the Great Basin anticyclone is maintained with undiminished intensity.

III. Weather conditions associated with the Akron disaster.
This situation illustrates the speedy development and propagation of young disturbances in the eastern United States during the spring of the year under the influence of the conditionally unstable tropical maritime air masses which characterise the region. It also furnishes an excellent example of the superiority of air mass and frontal methods of weather prediction for aircraft operation over the older methods based upon pressure distribution.

IV. The Los Angeles storm of December 30, 1933 to January 1, 1934.
This discussion points out some of the fundamental interactions occurring between air masses of the North Pacific Ocean in connection with Pacific Coast storms and the value of topographic and aerological considerations in predicting them. Estimates of rainfall intensity and duration from analyses of this type may be made and would prove very valuable in the Los Angeles area in connection with flood control problems.

Dynamics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Present and Future Climates

This thesis aims at enhancing our fundamental understanding of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and mechanisms implicated in its climatology in present-day and warmer climates. We focus on the most prominent feature of the EASM, i.e., the so-called Meiyu-Baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest to northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean in June and July.

We begin with an observational study of the energetics of the MB front in present-day climate. Analyses of the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind on the northwestern flank of the north Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region.

Similar mechanisms are shown to be implicated in present climate simulations in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We find that the spatial distribution of the EASM precipitation simulated by different models is highly correlated with the meridional stationary eddy velocity. The correlation becomes more robust when energy fluxes into the atmospheric column are considered, consistent with the observational analyses. The spread in the area-averaged rainfall amount can be partially explained by the spread in the simulated globally-averaged precipitation, with the rest primarily due to the lower-level meridional wind convergence. Clear relationships between precipitation and zonal and meridional eddy velocities are observed.

Finally, the response of the EASM to greenhouse gas forcing is investigated at different time scales in CMIP5 model simulations. The reduction of radiative cooling and the increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the rainfall in the monsoon region decreases (increases) over ocean (land) in most models. On longer time scales, as SSTs increase, rainfall changes are opposite. The total response to atmospheric CO^2 forcing and subsequent SST warming is a large (modest) increase in rainfall over ocean (land) in the EASM region. Dynamic changes, in spite of significant contributions from the thermodynamic component, play an important role in setting up the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. Rainfall anomalies over East China are a direct consequence of local land-sea contrast, while changes in the larger-scale oceanic rainfall band are closely associated with the displacement of the larger-scale NPSH. Numerical simulations show that topography and SST patterns play an important role in rainfall changes in the EASM region.

The effects of temperature on hatching and survival of northern rock sole larvae (Lepidopsetta polyxystra)

Northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) is a commercially important flatfish in Alaska and was recently classified as a distinct species from southern rock sole (L. bilineata). Taxonomic and vital rate data for northern rock sole are still not fully described, notably at early egg and larval stages. In this study, we provide new taxonomic descriptions of late-stage eggs and newly hatched larvae, as well as temperature-response models of hatching (timing, duration, success), and larval size-at-hatch and posthatch survival at four temperatures (2°, 5°, 9°, and 12°C). Time-to-first-hatch, hatch cycle duration, and overall hatching success showed a negative relationship with temperature. Early hatching larvae within each temperature treatment were smaller and had larger yolk sacs, but larvae incubated at higher temperatures (9° and 12°C) had the largest yolk reserves overall. Despite having smaller yolks, size-at-hatch and the maximum size achieved during the hatching cycle was highest for larvae reared at cold temperatures (2° and 5°C), indicating that endogenous reserves are more efficiently used for growth at these temperatures. In addition, larvae reared at high temperatures died more rapidly in the absence of food despite having more yolk reserves than cold-incubated larvae. Overall, northern rock sole eggs and larvae display early life history traits consistent with coldwater adaptation for winter spawning in the North Pacific.

Observer-reported skate bycatch in the commercial groundfish fisheries of Alaska

We analyzed skate catch data collected by observers in the North Pacific Groundfish Observer Program (NPGOP) from 1998 through 2008 to document recent changes in the identification of skates by observers and to examine the species composition of observed skate catch in Alaska’s groundfish fisheries as well as recent trends in skate retention by commercial fishermen. Historically, almost all skate bycatch has been reported by NPGOP observers as “skate unidentified.” However, since 2004 observers have been trained to identify skates to the genus and species level. In 2008 over 95% of all skates were identified at least to the genus level, and over 50% were identified to species. The most common species of skates identified by observers in groundfish fisheries are Bathyraja parmifera (Alaska skate), Raja binoculata (big skate), and Bathyraja aleutica (Aleutian skate). Species composition of reported skate catch generally reflects recent survey-derived biomass estimates, with B. parmifera dominating the catches in the Bering Sea and, to a lesser extent, in the Aleutian Islands region, and species of the genus Raja dominating catches in the Gulf of Alaska. A relatively high percentage of the skate catch on longline vessels is still reported at the family or genus level because of difficulties in the identification of skates not brought onboard the vessel. For the larger skate species, the proportion retained for processing has increased in recent years as the market price for skate product has increased. Although observed skate catch does not give a complete account of skate bycatch in the fisheries of the region, observer data provide critical information for the appropriate management of skate populations in Alaska.

Growth and survival of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) from Karluk Lake and River, Alaska, in relation to climatic and oceanic regimes and indices, 1922–2000

We examined whether the relationship between climate and salmon production was linked through the effect of climate on the growth of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) at sea. Smolt length and juvenile, immature, and maturing growth rates were estimated from increments on scales of adult sockeye salmon that returned to the Karluk River and Lake system on Kodiak Island, Alaska, over 77 years, 1924–2000. Survival was higher during the warm climate regimes and lower during the cool regime. Growth was not correlated with survival, as estimated from the residuals of the Ricker stock-recruitment model. Juvenile growth was correlated with an atmospheric forcing index and immature growth was correlated with the amount of coastal precipitation, but the magnitude of winter and spring coastal downwelling in the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest atmospheric patterns that influence the directional bifurcation of the Pacific Current were not related to the growth of Karluk sockeye salmon. However, indices of sea surface temperature, coastal precipitation, and atmospheric circulation in the eastern North Pacific were correlated with the survival of Karluk sockeye salmon. Winter and spring precipitation and atmospheric circulation are possible processes linking survival to climate variation in Karluk sockeye salmon.

Age validation of Dover sole (Microstomus pacificus) by means of bomb radiocarbon

We used bomb radiocarbon (14C) in this age validation study of Dover sole (Microstomus pacificus). The otoliths of Dover sole, a commercially important fish in the North Pacific, are difficult to age and ages derived from the current break-andburn method were not previously validated. The otoliths used in this study were chosen on the basis of estimated birth year and for the ease of interpreting growth zone patterns. Otolith cores, material representing years 0 through 3, were isolated and analyzed for 14C. Additionally, a small number of otoliths with difficult-to-interpret growth patterns were analyzed for 14C to help determine age interpretation. The measured Dover sole 14C values in easier-to-interpret otoliths were compared with a 14C reference chronology for Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) in the North Pacific. We used an objective statistical analysis where sums of squared residuals between otolith 14C values of Dover sole and the reference chronology were examined. Our statistical analysis also included a procedure where the Dover sole 14C values were standardized to the reference chronology. These procedures allowed an evaluation of aging error. The 14C results indicated that the Dover sole age estimates from the easier-to-interpret otoliths with the break-and-burn method are accurate. This study validated Dover sole ages from 8 to 47 years.

Species of the rougheye rockfish complex: resurrection of Sebastes melanostictus (Matsubara, 1934) and a redescription of Sebastes aleutianus (Jordan and Evermann, 1898)(Teleostei: Scorpaeniformes)

The widespread and commercially important rougheye rockfish, Sebastes aleutianus (Jordan and Evermann, 1898), has been considered a single variable species, with light- and dark-colored forms, found on the outer continental shelf and upper slope of the North Pacific Ocean. Genetic analysis of 124 specimens verified the presence of two species in new specimens collected from Alaska to Oregon, and the two species were analyzed for distinguishing color patterns and morphological characters. Characters distinguishing the two were extended to an analysis of 215 additional formalin-fixed specimens representing their geographic ranges. Sebastes aleutianus is pale, often has dark mottling on the dorsum in diffuse bands, and does not have distinct dark spots on the spinous dorsal fin; it ranges from the eastern Aleutian Islands and southeastern Bering Sea to California. Sebastes melanostictus (Matsubara, 1934), the blackspotted rockfish, ranges from central Japan, through the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea, to southern California. It is darker overall and spotting is nearly always present on the spinous dorsal fin. Sebastes swifti (Evermann and Goldsborough, 1907) is a synonym of S. aleutianus; S. kawaradae (Matsubara, 1934) is a synonym of S. melanostictus. The subgenus Zalopyr is restricted to S. aleutianus and S. melanostictus. Nomenclatural synonymies, diagnoses, descriptions, and distributions are provided for each species.

Ichthyoplankton community in the Columbia River plume off Oregon: effects of fluctuating oceanographic conditions

Ichthyoplankton samples were collected at approximately 2-week intervals, primarily during spring and summer 1999−2004, from two stations located 20 and 30 km from shore near the Columbia River, Oregon. Northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) was the most abundant species collected, and was the primary species associated with summer upwelling conditions, but it showed significant interannual and seasonal fluctuations in abundance and occurrence. Other abundant taxa included sanddabs (Citharichthys spp.), English sole (Parophrys vetulus), and blacksmelts (Bathylagidae). Two-way cluster analysis revealed strong species associations based primarily on season (before or after the spring transition date). Ichthyoplankton abundances were compared to biological and environmental data, and egg and larvae abundances were found to be most correlated with sea surface temperature. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation changed sign (from negative to positive) in late 2002 and indicated overall warmer conditions in the North Pacific Ocean. Climate change is expected to alter ocean upwelling, temperatures, and Columbia River flows, and consequently fish eggs and larvae distributions and survival. Long-term research is needed to identify how ichthyoplankton and fish recruitment are affected by regional and largescale oceanographic proces

Description of embryonic development of Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius)

Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius) is hexagrammid fish that inhabits the temperate and subarctic North Pacific Ocean and neighboring seas (Fig. 1). This highly abundant fish is a critically important prey species (Sinclair and Zeppelin, 2002; Zenger, 2004) that supports a directed commercial trawl fishery (Lowe et al., 2006). Atka mackerel is a demersal spawner and males provide parental care to eggs (Zolotov, 1993). During breeding periods, sexually mature males aggregate on the bottom at nesting sites where they establish territories (Lauth et al., in press). Sexually mature females periodically visit male nesting territories from July to October to spawn batches of demersal egg masses (McDermott and Lowe, 1997; McDermott et al., 2007). Individual nests may consist of multiple egg masses deposited by different females, and males defend nesting territories for a protracted period lasting from the time territories are being established until all eggs within the territory are completely hatched (Lauth et al., 2007). Knowledge about the timing of the reproductive cycle and the use of spawning habitat are important for understanding population structure and the dynamics of stock recruitment, which in turn are important factors in the management of Atka mackerel populations.

Age and growth of swordfish (Xiphias gladius) caught by the Hawaii-based pelagic longline fishery

We verified the age and growth of swordfish (Xiphias gla-dius) by comparing ages determined from annuli in fin ray sections with daily growth increments in otoliths. Growth of swordfish of exploitable sizes is described on the basis of annuli present in cross sections of the second ray of the first anal fins of 1292 specimens (60−260 cm eye-to-fork length, EFL) caught in the region of the Hawaii-based pelagic longline fishery. The position of the initial fin ray annulus of swordfish was verified for the first time with the use of scanning electron micrographs of presumed daily growth increments present in the otoliths of juveniles. Fish growth through age 7 was validated by marginal increment analysis. Faster growth of females was confirmed, and the standard von Bertalanffy growth model was identified as the most parsimonious for describing growth in length for fish greater than 60 cm EFL. The observed growth of three fish, a year-old in size when first caught and then recaptured from 364 to1490 days later, is consistent with modeled growth for fish of this size range. Our novel approach to verifying age and growth should increase confidence in conducting an age-structured stock assessment for swordfish in the North Pacific Ocean.

Evaluation of rockfish abundance in untrawlable habitat: combining acoustic and complementary sampling tools

Rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) are an important component of North Pacific marine ecosystems and commercial fisheries. Because the rocky, high-relief substrate that rockfishes often inhabit is inaccessible to standard survey trawls, population abundance assessments for many rockfish species are difficult. As part of a large study to classify substrate and compare complementary sampling tools, we investigated the feasibility of using an acoustic survey in conjunction with a lowered stereo-video camera, a remotely operated vehicle, and a modified bottom trawl to estimate rockfish biomass in untrawlable habitat. The Snakehead Bank south of Kodiak Island, Alaska, was surveyed repeatedly over 4 days and nights. Dusky rockfish (S. variabilis), northern rockfish (S. polyspinis), and harlequin rockfish (S. variegatus) were the most abundant species observed on the bank. Backscatter attributed to rockfish were collected primarily near the seafloor at a mean height off the bottom of 1.5 m. Total rockfish backscatter and the height of backscatter off the bottom did not differ among survey passes or between night and day. Biomass estimates for the 41 square nautical-mile area surveyed on this small, predominantly untrawlable bank were 2350 metric tons (t) of dusky rockfish, 331 t of northern rockfish, and 137 t of harlequin rockfish. These biomass estimates are 5–60 times the density estimated for these rockfish species by a regularly conducted bottom trawl survey covering the bank and the surrounding shelf. This finding shows that bottom trawl surveys can underestimate the abundance of rockfishes in untrawlable areas and, therefore, may underestimate overall population abundance for these species.