Application of a Bayesian Network complex system model to a successful community electricity demand reduction program

Utilities worldwide are focused on supplying peak electricity demand reliably and cost effectively, requiring a thorough understanding of all the factors influencing residential electricity use at peak times. An electricity demand reduction project based on comprehensive residential consumer engagement was established within an Australian community in 2008, and by 2011, peak demand had decreased to below pre-intervention levels. This paper applied field data discovered through qualitative in-depth interviews of 22 residential households at the community to a Bayesian Network complex system model to examine whether the system model could explain successful peak demand reduction in the case study location. The knowledge and understanding acquired through insights into the major influential factors and the potential impact of changes to these factors on peak demand would underpin demand reduction intervention strategies for a wider target group.

Development of a cost-effective and flexible vibration DAQ system for long-term continuous structural health monitoring

In the structural health monitoring (SHM) field, long-term continuous vibration-based monitoring is becoming increasingly popular as this could keep track of the health status of structures during their service lives. However, implementing such a system is not always feasible due to on-going conflicts between budget constraints and the need of sophisticated systems to monitor real-world structures under their demanding in-service conditions. To address this problem, this paper presents a comprehensive development of a cost-effective and flexible vibration DAQ system for long-term continuous SHM of a newly constructed institutional complex with a special focus on the main building. First, selections of sensor type and sensor positions are scrutinized to overcome adversities such as low-frequency and low-level vibration measurements. In order to economically tackle the sparse measurement problem, a cost-optimized Ethernet-based peripheral DAQ model is first adopted to form the system skeleton. A combination of a high-resolution timing coordination method based on the TCP/IP command communication medium and a periodic system resynchronization strategy is then proposed to synchronize data from multiple distributed DAQ units. The results of both experimental evaluations and experimental–numerical verifications show that the proposed DAQ system in general and the data synchronization solution in particular work well and they can provide a promising cost-effective and flexible alternative for use in real-world SHM projects. Finally, the paper demonstrates simple but effective ways to make use of the developed monitoring system for long-term continuous structural health evaluation as well as to use the instrumented building herein as a multi-purpose benchmark structure for studying not only practical SHM problems but also synchronization related issues.

Non-destructive structural integrity assessment of a decommissioned rail wagon system

This paper presents a multi-criteria based approach for nondestructive diagnostic structural integrity assessment of a decommissioned flatbed rail wagon (FBRW) used for road bridge superstructure rehabilitation and replacement applications. First, full-scale vibration and static test data sets are employed in a FE model of the FBRW to obtain the best ‘initial’ estimate of the model parameters. Second, the ‘final’ model parameters are predicted using sensitivity-based perturbation analysis without significant difficulties encountered. Consequently, the updated FBRW model is validated using the independent sets of full-scale laboratory static test data. Finally, the updated and validated FE model of the FBRW is used for structural integrity assessment of a single lane FBRW bridge subjected to the Australian bridge design traffic load.

Adaptive compliance control of a multi‐legged stair‐climbing robot based on proprioceptive data

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe an innovative compliance control architecture for hybrid multi‐legged robots. The approach was verified on the hybrid legged‐wheeled robot ASGUARD, which was inspired by quadruped animals. The adaptive compliance controller allows the system to cope with a variety of stairs, very rough terrain, and is also able to move with high velocity on flat ground without changing the control parameters. Design/methodology/approach – The paper shows how this adaptivity results in a versatile controller for hybrid legged‐wheeled robots. For the locomotion control we use an adaptive model of motion pattern generators. The control approach takes into account the proprioceptive information of the torques, which are applied on the legs. The controller itself is embedded on a FPGA‐based, custom designed motor control board. An additional proprioceptive inclination feedback is used to make the same controller more robust in terms of stair‐climbing capabilities. Findings – The robot is well suited for disaster mitigation as well as for urban search and rescue missions, where it is often necessary to place sensors or cameras into dangerous or inaccessible areas to get a better situation awareness for the rescue personnel, before they enter a possibly dangerous area. A rugged, waterproof and dust‐proof corpus and the ability to swim are additional features of the robot. Originality/value – Contrary to existing approaches, a pre‐defined walking pattern for stair‐climbing was not used, but an adaptive approach based only on internal sensor information. In contrast to many other walking pattern based robots, the direct proprioceptive feedback was used in order to modify the internal control loop, thus adapting the compliance of each leg on‐line.

Evaluation of cooperative exploration strategies using full system simulation

This paper compares different state-of-the-art exploration strategies for teams of mobile robots exploring an unknown environment. The goal is to help in determining a best strategy for a given multi-robot scenario and optimization target. Experiments are done in a 2D-simulation environment with 5 robots that are equipped with a horizontal laser range finder. Required components like SLAM, path planning and obstacle avoidance of every robot are included in a full-system simulation. To evaluate different strategies the time to finish exploration, the number of measurements that have been integrated into the map and the development in size of the explored area over time are used. The results of extensive test runs on three environments with different characteristics show that simple strategies can perform fairly well in many situations but specialized strategies can improve performance with regards to their targeted evaluation measure.

Data driven and practice-based evidence : design and development of efficient and effective clinical decision support system

Decision-making is such an integral aspect in health care routine that the ability to make the right decisions at crucial moments can lead to patient health improvements. Evidence-based practice, the paradigm used to make those informed decisions, relies on the use of current best evidence from systematic research such as randomized controlled trials. Limitations of the outcomes from randomized controlled trials (RCT), such as “quantity” and “quality” of evidence generated, has lowered healthcare professionals’ confidence in using EBP. An alternate paradigm of Practice-Based Evidence has evolved with the key being evidence drawn from practice settings. Through the use of health information technology, electronic health records (EHR) capture relevant clinical practice “evidence”. A data-driven approach is proposed to capitalize on the benefits of EHR. The issues of data privacy, security and integrity are diminished by an information accountability concept. Data warehouse architecture completes the data-driven approach by integrating health data from multi-source systems, unique within the healthcare environment.

Defining the InstaBooth: Facilitating debate and content creation from situated users

Through ubiquitous computing and location-based social media, information is spreading outside the traditional domains of home and work into the urban environment. Digital technologies have changed the way people relate to the urban form supporting discussion on multiple levels, allowing more citizens to be heard in new ways (Fredericks et al. 2013; Houghton et al. 2014; Caldwell et al. 2013). Face-to-face and digitally mediated discussions, facilitated by tangible and hybrid interaction, such as multi-touch screens and media façades, are initiated through a telephone booth inspired portable structure: The InstaBooth. The InstaBooth prototype employs a multidisciplinary approach to engage local communities in a situated debate on the future of their urban environment. With it, we capture citizens’ past stories and opinions on the use and design of public places. The way public consultations are currently done often engages only a section of the population involved in a proposed development; the more vocal citizens are not necessarily the more representative of the communities (Jenkins 2006). Alternative ways to engage urban dwellers in the debate about the built environment are explored at the moment, including the use of social media or online tools (Foth 2009). This project fosters innovation by providing pathways for communities to participate in the decision making process that informs the urban form. The InstaBooth promotes dialogue and mediation between a bottom-up and a top-down approach to urban design, with the aim of promoting community connectedness with the urban environment. The InstaBooth provides an engagement and discussion platform that leverages a number of locally developed display and interaction technologies in order to facilitate a dialogue of ideas and commentary. The InstaBooth combines multiple interaction techniques into a hybrid (digital and analogue) media space. Through the InstaBooth, urban design and architectural proposals are displayed encouraging commentary from visitors. Inside the InstaBooth, visitors can activate a multi-touch screen in order to browse media, write a note, or draw a picture to provide feedback. The purpose of the InstaBooth is to engage with a broader section of society, including those who are often marginalised. The specific design of the internal and external interfaces, the mutual relationship between these interfaces with regards to information display and interaction, and the question how visitors can engage with the system, are part of the research agenda of the project.

Turbulence and Mixing in the Environment: Multi-Device Study in a Sub-tropical Estuary

In an estuary, mixing and dispersion result from a combination of large-scale advection and smallscale turbulence, which are complex to estimate. The predictions of scalar transport and mixing are often inferred and rarely accurate, due to inadequate understanding of the contributions of these difference scales to estuarine recirculation. A multi-device field study was conducted in a small sub-tropical estuary under neap tide conditions with near-zero fresh water discharge for about 48 hours. During the study, acoustic Doppler velocimeters (ADV) were sampled at high frequency (50 Hz), while an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and global positioning system (GPS) tracked drifters were used to obtain some lower frequency spatial distribution of the flow parameters within the estuary. The velocity measurements were complemented with some continuous measurement of water depth, conductivity, temperature and some other physiochemical parameters. Thorough quality control was carried out by implementation of relevant error removal filters on the individual data set to intercept spurious data. A triple decomposition (TD) technique was introduced to access the contributions of tides, resonance and ‘true’ turbulence in the flow field. The time series of mean flow measurements for both the ADCP and drifter were consistent with those of the mean ADV data when sampled within a similar spatial domain. The tidal scale fluctuation of velocity and water level were used to examine the response of the estuary to tidal inertial current. The channel exhibited a mixed type wave with a typical phase-lag between 0.035π– 0.116π. A striking feature of the ADV velocity data was the slow fluctuations, which exhibited large amplitudes of up to 50% of the tidal amplitude, particularly in slack waters. Such slow fluctuations were simultaneously observed in a number of physiochemical properties of the channel. The ensuing turbulence field showed some degree of anisotropy. For all ADV units, the horizontal turbulence ratio ranged between 0.4 and 0.9, and decreased towards the bed, while the vertical turbulence ratio was on average unity at z = 0.32 m and approximately 0.5 for the upper ADV (z = 0.55 m). The result of the statistical analysis suggested that the ebb phase turbulence field was dominated by eddies that evolved from ejection type process, while that of the flood phase contained mixed eddies with significant amount related to sweep type process. Over 65% of the skewness values fell within the range expected of a finite Gaussian distribution and the bulk of the excess kurtosis values (over 70%) fell within the range of -0.5 and +2. The TD technique described herein allowed the characterisation of a broader temporal scale of fluctuations of the high frequency data sampled within the durations of a few tidal cycles. The study provides characterisation of the ranges of fluctuation required for an accurate modelling of shallow water dispersion and mixing in a sub-tropical estuary.

Reconstruction of a multi-vent kimberlite eruption from deposit and host rock characteristics: Jericho kimberlite, Nunavut, Canada

The Jericho kimberlite (173.1. ±. 1.3. Ma) is a small (~. 130. ×. 70. m), multi-vent system that preserves products from deep (>. 1. km?) portions of kimberlite vents. Pit mapping, drill core examination, petrographic study, image analysis of olivine crystals (grain size distributions and shape studies), and compositional and mineralogical studies, are used to reconstruct processes from near-surface magma ascent to kimberlite emplacement and alteration. The Jericho kimberlite formed by multiple eruptions through an Archean granodiorite batholith that was overlain by mid-Devonian limestones ~. 1. km in thickness. Kimberlite magma ascended through granodiorite basement by dyke propagation but ascended through limestone, at least in part, by locally brecciating the host rocks. After the first explosive breakthrough to surface, vent deepening and widening occurred by the erosive forces of the waxing phase of the eruption, by gravitationally induced failures as portions of the vent margins slid into the vent and, in the deeper portions of the vent (>. 1. km), by scaling, as thin slabs burst from the walls into the vent. At currently exposed levels, coherent kimberlite (CK) dykes (<. 40. cm thick) are found to the north and south of the vent complex and represent the earliest preserved in-situ products of Jericho magmatism. Timing of CK emplacement on the eastern side of the vent complex is unclear; some thick CK (15-20. m) may have been emplaced after the central vent was formed. Explosive eruptive products are preserved in four partially overlapping vents that are roughly aligned along strike with the coherent kimberlite dyke. The volcaniclastic kimberlite (VK) facies are massive and poorly sorted, with matrix- to clast-supported textures. The VK facies fragmented by dry, volatile-driven processes and were emplaced by eruption column collapse back into the volcanic vents. The first explosive products, poorly preserved because of partial destruction by later eruptions, are found in the central-east vent and were formed by eruption column collapse after the vent was largely cleared of country rock debris. The next active vent was either the north or south vent. Collapse of the eruption column, linked to a vent widening episode, resulted in coeval avalanching of pipe margin walls into the north vent, forming interstratified lenses of country rock-rich boulder breccias in finer-grained volcaniclastic kimberlite. South vent kimberlite has similar characteristics to kimberlite of the north vent and likely formed by similar processes. The final eruptive phase formed olivine-rich and moderately sorted deposits of the central vent. Better sorting is attributed to recycling of kimberlite debris by multiple eruptions through the unconsolidated volcaniclastic pile and associated collapse events. Post-emplacement alteration varies in intensity, but in all cases, has overprinted the primary groundmass and matrix, in CK and VK, respectively. Erosion has since removed all limestone cover.

Structural identification of a laboratory-based steel through truss cantilevered bridge with suspended span using a layered genetic algorithm with patternsearch step (GAPS)

Structural identification (St-Id) can be considered as the process of updating a finite element (FE) model of a structural system to match the measured response of the structure. This paper presents the St-Id of a laboratory-based steel through-truss cantilevered bridge with suspended span. There are a total of 600 degrees of freedom (DOFs) in the superstructure plus additional DOFs in the substructure. The St-Id of the bridge model used the modal parameters from a preliminary modal test in the objective function of a global optimisation technique using a layered genetic algorithm with patternsearch step (GAPS). Each layer of the St-Id process involved grouping of the structural parameters into a number of updating parameters and running parallel optimisations. The number of updating parameters was increased at each layer of the process. In order to accelerate the optimisation and ensure improved diversity within the population, a patternsearch step was applied to the fittest individuals at the end of each generation of the GA. The GAPS process was able to replicate the mode shapes for the first two lateral sway modes and the first vertical bending mode to a high degree of accuracy and, to a lesser degree, the mode shape of the first lateral bending mode. The mode shape and frequency of the torsional mode did not match very well. The frequencies of the first lateral bending mode, the first longitudinal mode and the first vertical mode matched very well. The frequency of the first sway mode was lower and that of the second sway mode was higher than the true values, indicating a possible problem with the FE model. Improvements to the model and the St-Id process will be presented at the upcoming conference and compared to the results presented in this paper. These improvements will include the use of multiple FE models in a multi-layered, multi-solution, GAPS St-Id approach.

Quantitative genetic modeling of lateral ventricular shape and volume using multi-atlas fluid image alignment in twins

Despite substantial progress in measuring the 3D profile of anatomical variations in the human brain, their genetic and environmental causes remain enigmatic. We developed an automated system to identify and map genetic and environmental effects on brain structure in large brain MRI databases . We applied our multi-template segmentation approach ("Multi-Atlas Fluid Image Alignment") to fluidly propagate hand-labeled parameterized surface meshes into 116 scans of twins (60 identical, 56 fraternal), labeling the lateral ventricles. Mesh surfaces were averaged within subjects to minimize segmentation error. We fitted quantitative genetic models at each of 30,000 surface points to measure the proportion of shape variance attributable to (1) genetic differences among subjects, (2) environmental influences unique to each individual, and (3) shared environmental effects. Surface-based statistical maps revealed 3D heritability patterns, and their significance, with and without adjustments for global brain scale. These maps visualized detailed profiles of environmental versus genetic influences on the brain, extending genetic models to spatially detailed, automatically computed, 3D maps.

Provisioning a 3.3 MW PhotoVoltaic generation system onto a distribution authority’s 11 kV rural feeder

This paper describes part of an engineering study that was undertaken to demonstrate that a multi-megawatt Photovoltaic (PV) generation system could be connected to a rural 11 kV feeder without creating power quality issues for other consumers. The paper concentrates solely on the voltage regulation aspect of the study as this was the most innovative part of the study. The study was carried out using the time-domain software package, PSCAD/EMTDC. The software model included real time data input of actual measured load and scaled PV generation data, along with real-time substation voltage regulator and PV inverter reactive power control. The outputs from the model plot real-time voltage, current and power variations throughout the daily load and PV generation variations. Other aspects of the study not described in the paper include the analysis of harmonics, voltage flicker, power factor, voltage unbalance and system losses.

Towards the development of a low cost airborne sensing system to monitor dust particles after blasting at open-pit mine sites

Blasting is an integral part of large-scale open cut mining that often occurs in close proximity to population centers and often results in the emission of particulate material and gases potentially hazardous to health. Current air quality monitoring methods rely on limited numbers of fixed sampling locations to validate a complex fluid environment and collect sufficient data to confirm model effectiveness. This paper describes the development of a methodology to address the need of a more precise approach that is capable of characterizing blasting plumes in near-real time. The integration of the system required the modification and integration of an opto-electrical dust sensor, SHARP GP2Y10, into a small fixed-wing and multi-rotor copter, resulting in the collection of data streamed during flight. The paper also describes the calibration of the optical sensor with an industry grade dust-monitoring device, Dusttrak 8520, demonstrating a high correlation between them, with correlation coefficients (R2) greater than 0.9. The laboratory and field tests demonstrate the feasibility of coupling the sensor with the UAVs. However, further work must be done in the areas of sensor selection and calibration as well as flight planning.

A queuing approach for inventory planning with batch ordering in multi-echelon supply chains

This paper presents stylized models for conducting performance analysis of the manufacturing supply chain network (SCN) in a stochastic setting for batch ordering. We use queueing models to capture the behavior of SCN. The analysis is clubbed with an inventory optimization model, which can be used for designing inventory policies . In the first case, we model one manufacturer with one warehouse, which supplies to various retailers. We determine the optimal inventory level at the warehouse that minimizes total expected cost of carrying inventory, back order cost associated with serving orders in the backlog queue, and ordering cost. In the second model we impose service level constraint in terms of fill rate (probability an order is filled from stock at warehouse), assuming that customers do not balk from the system. We present several numerical examples to illustrate the model and to illustrate its various features. In the third case, we extend the model to a three-echelon inventory model which explicitly considers the logistics process.

Inverse Sensitivity Analysis of Singular Solutions of FRF matrix in Structural System Identification

The problem of structural damage detection based on measured frequency response functions of the structure in its damaged and undamaged states is considered. A novel procedure that is based on inverse sensitivity of the singular solutions of the system FRF matrix is proposed. The treatment of possibly ill-conditioned set of equations via regularization scheme and questions on spatial incompleteness of measurements are considered. The application of the method in dealing with systems with repeated natural frequencies and (or) packets of closely spaced modes is demonstrated. The relationship between the proposed method and the methods based on inverse sensitivity of eigensolutions and frequency response functions is noted. The numerical examples on a 5-degree of freedom system, a one span free-free beam and a spatially periodic multi-span beam demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method and its superior performance vis-a-vis methods based on inverse eigensensitivity.