What risks do people perceive in everyday life? A perspective gained from the experience sampling method (ESM)

The experiential sampling method (ESM) was used to collect data from 74 parttimestudents who described and assessed the risks involved in their current activitieswhen interrupted at random moments by text messages. The major categories ofperceived risk were short-term in nature and involved loss of time or materials relatedto work and physical damage (e.g., from transportation). Using techniques of multilevelanalysis, we demonstrate effects of gender, emotional state, and types of risk onassessments of risk. Specifically, females do not differ from males in assessing thepotential severity of risks but they see these as more likely to occur. Also, participantsassessed risks to be lower when in more positive self-reported emotional states. Wefurther demonstrate the potential of ESM by showing that risk assessments associatedwith current actions exceed those made retrospectively. We conclude by notingadvantages and disadvantages of ESM for collecting data about risk perceptions.

On the sources of the Great Moderation

The remarkable decline in macroeconomic volatility experienced by the U.S. economy since the mid-80s (the so-called Great Moderation) has been accompanied by large changes in the patterns of comovements among output, hours and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks. That evidencepoints to structural change, as opposed to just good luck, as an explanation for the Great Moderation. We use a simple macro model to suggest some of the immediate sources which are likely to be behindthe observed changes.

Optimization of multiclass queueing networks with changeover times via the achievable region method: Part II, the multi-station case

We address the problem of scheduling a multi-station multiclassqueueing network (MQNET) with server changeover times to minimizesteady-state mean job holding costs. We present new lower boundson the best achievable cost that emerge as the values ofmathematical programming problems (linear, semidefinite, andconvex) over relaxed formulations of the system's achievableperformance region. The constraints on achievable performancedefining these formulations are obtained by formulatingsystem's equilibrium relations. Our contributions include: (1) aflow conservation interpretation and closed formulae for theconstraints previously derived by the potential function method;(2) new work decomposition laws for MQNETs; (3) new constraints(linear, convex, and semidefinite) on the performance region offirst and second moments of queue lengths for MQNETs; (4) a fastbound for a MQNET with N customer classes computed in N steps; (5)two heuristic scheduling policies: a priority-index policy, anda policy extracted from the solution of a linear programmingrelaxation.

Hypernormal densities

We propose a new family of density functions that possess both flexibilityand closed form expressions for moments and anti-derivatives, makingthem particularly appealing for applications. We illustrate its usefulnessby applying our new family to obtain density forecasts of U.S. inflation.Our methods generate forecasts that improve on standard methods based on AR-ARCH models relying on normal or Student's t-distributional assumptions.

The elusive costs and the immaterial gains of fiscal contraints

We study whether and how fiscal restrictions alter the business cycle features macrovariables for a sample of 48 US states. We also examine the 'typical' transmission properties of fiscal disturbances and the implied fiscal rules of states with different fiscal restrictions. Fiscal constraints are characterized with a number of indicators. There are similarities in second moments of macrovariables and in the transmission properties of fiscal shocks across states with different fiscal constraints. The cyclical response of expenditure differs in size and sometimes in sign, but heterogeneity within groups makes point estimates statistically insignificant. Creative budget accounting isresponsible for the pattern. Implications for the design of fiscal rules and thereform of the Stability and Growth Pact are discussed.

The three strands of intercultural polities: a comprehensive view. A critical review of Bouchard and Cantle recent books on interculturalism

Within the emerging policy debate on interculturalism we critically review two recent books in 2012: Bouchard’s L’interculturalisme: un point de vue quebecois, and Cantle’s Interculturalism: The New Era of Cohesion and Diversity. In my view, both contribute very directly to open a foundational debate on interculturalism. In addressing the point of convergence and the dividing lines of these two contributions, I will claim that in spite of having one core concept of interculturalism, there are, however, at least two basic conceptions that have to be interpreted in complementary ways: Bouchard’s essay represents the contractual strand, Cantle’s book the cohesion strand. At the end I would also suggest that these two strands do not manage to express explicitly that diversity can also be seen as a resource of innovation and creativity, and so can drive individual and social development. This view is based on the diversity advantage literature already informing most of the diversity debate in Europe and elsewhere. This is what I will call the constructivist strand. My ultimate purpose is to defend a comprehensive view, grounded on the argument that no one can have the sole authority to define intercultural policy, since the three strands can be applied at different moments, according to different purposes and policy needs. The challenge now is that policy managers be able to achieve a balance between these three policy drivers.

La Géographie française et le risque d'inondation: de la géographie physique à la géographie humaine

Les inondations, comme tous les risques naturels, ont été un thème qui est revenu souvent au long de l'histoire de la géographie française, mais toujours — et contrairement à ce qui se passe dans la géographie anglo-saxonne —, en relation à la géographie physique. Dans cet article, nous voulons expliquer les raisons de la présence de la géographie physique dans le traitement du risque d'inondation : nous mettons en relation les différents moments de la géographie française avec l'analyse du risque d'inondation et révisons le contenu des références aux inondations entre les géographes ou écoles géographiques les plus représentatifs

El Lloc dels riscos naturals als Annales de Géographie (1891-1991)

L'étude des risques naturels est devenu un sujet de débat entre les géographes physiques français, de plus en plus conscients de l'exposition croissante des sociétés aux risques naturels et du besoin d'évaluer leurs compétences et leurs moyens d'intervention. Mais l'étude des risques naturels a aussi été un sujet récurrent dans l'histoire de la géographie française. Cet article prétend être une approche au traitement qu'a reçu ce thème dans les Annales de Géographie depuis sa création jusqu'h aujourd’hui. Après avoir distingué trois étapes (1891-1930, 1930-1975 et 1975-1991) on a établi les rapports existants entre les différents moments de la géographie française et l'étude des risques naturels et on a analysé autant le contenu des notices sur les divers évènements catastrophiques que les travaux des auteurs les plus représentatifs. I1 s'agit, en résumé, de proposer une réflexion sur la façon dont la géographie française a abordé ce sujet

A wearable system for multi-segment foot kinetics measurement.

This study aims to design a wearable system for kinetics measurement of multi-segment foot joints in long-distance walking and to investigate its suitability for clinical evaluations. The wearable system consisted of inertial sensors (3D gyroscopes and 3D accelerometers) on toes, forefoot, hindfoot, and shank, and a plantar pressure insole. After calibration in a laboratory, 10 healthy elderly subjects and 12 patients with ankle osteoarthritis walked 50m twice wearing this system. Using inverse dynamics, 3D forces, moments, and power were calculated in the joint sections among toes, forefoot, hindfoot, and shank. Compared to those we previously estimated for a one-segment foot model, the sagittal and transverse moments and power in the ankle joint, as measured via multi-segment foot model, showed a normalized RMS difference of less than 11%, 14%, and 13%, respectively, for healthy subjects, and 13%, 15%, and 14%, for patients. Similar to our previous study, the coronal moments were not analyzed. Maxima-minima values of anterior-posterior and vertical force, sagittal moment, and power in shank-hindfoot and hindfoot-forefoot joints were significantly different between patients and healthy subjects. Except for power, the inter-subject repeatability of these parameters was CMC>0.90 for healthy subjects and CMC>0.70 for patients. Repeatability of these parameters was lower for the forefoot-toes joint. The proposed measurement system estimated multi-segment foot joints kinetics with acceptable repeatability but showed difference, compared to those previously estimated for the one-segment foot model. These parameters also could distinguish patients from healthy subjects. Thus, this system is suggested for outcome evaluations of foot treatments.

Ler melhor através dos temas e mitos na literatura cabo-verdiana : uma análise comparativista

Esta dissertação teve como ponto de partida a pergunta “Como se comportaram alguns temas e mitos ao longo da história da literatura de Cabo Verde? Que caminho percorreram?” Para tentar dar-lhe resposta recorremos à metodologia comparativista, com o objetivo de analisar as evoluções e possíveis mudanças ocorridas ao longo dos tempos, a partir do cruzamento transversal entre temas e mitos em épocas diferentes. Foi assim necessário abordar a literatura cabo-verdiana, na sua relação profunda com a história do país, considerando os seus três grandes momentos: um tempo “ indefinido” que vai até 1936, um segundo que vai de 1936 até 1975 e, por último, o que vai desde essa data até à atualidade. Ao longo dessa análise, e a partir de um corpus textual necessariamente circunscrito, fomos detetando as variantes, as diferentes atualizações ocorridas nesta literatura, geralmente provocadas por fatores de ordem geográfica, pela evolução histórico-social, por fatores ideológicos que se prenderam sobretudo com a falta de liberdade vivida até 1975. Esta abordagem comparativista, a análise intertextual que lhe é inerente, proporcionou, não uma simples comparação, mas o desvendar de relações múltiplas existentes entre as obras, o corpus literário escolhido, e os tempos que lhes deram origem, permitindo assim conhecer as partes e, consequentemente o todo através do “desocultamento do oculto”. Constatou-se uma migração dos temas e dos mitos entre as literaturas dos três momentos. Em certos casos, alguns elementos permaneceram, mas com novas representações, noutros assumem significados radicalmente diferentes dados os atuais contextos da sua recepção. Relativamente aos mitos, observou-se a sua crescente dessacralização, em sintonia com o progresso que o país foi conhecendo após a independência nacional. A leitura que fomos fazendo conduziu-nos deste modo a uma viagem ao passado do país. Esta leitura transversal, alicerçada na história, dando conta das transformações ocorridas ao longo dos tempos, mostrou-nos ainda de forma cabal a necessidade de se introduzirem mudanças no ensino da literatura nas escolas cabo-verdianas. Uma mudança que deverá passar por uma abordagem comparativista, que privilegia as relações entre textos de diferentes épocas, a sua perspetivação interdisciplinar com outras formas de expressão, capaz de transformar o aluno-mero-receptor num leitor ativo, implicado numa realidade que lhe diz respeito.

El vídeo de curta durada: la selecció, la influència en els processosd’ensenyament-aprenentatge i l’elaboració per part dels alumnes

El Treball Final de Màster ha permès avaluar l’ús del vídeo de curta durada endiferents moments del procés didàctic: en la seva selecció per part delprofessor, en la influència en l’aprenentatge dels alumnes i com a eina desíntesi d’una unitat didàctica.La primera de les aportacions del treball és un sistema d’indicadors per a laselecció dels vídeos que ha de facilitar al professorat la selecció d’aquellsrecursos amb un valor pedagògic adequat a l’alumnat.Durant el treball també es demostra que l’ús d’un vídeo, seleccionat mitjançantl’ús del sistema d’indicadors, pot incrementar la motivació i l’aprenentatgesignificatiu de l’alumnat.Finalment, s’evidencia que l’ús d’una base d’orientació, com a metodologiad’autoregulació per a l'elaboració d'un vídeo, facilita la planificació de l’alumne.A l’avaluar l’aprenentatge del conceptes clau de la unitat didàctica, es detectaque cal deixar el temps suficient per fer el vídeo, sinó els alumnes prioritzen laseva dedicació a temes més tècnics del muntatge.

Une énigme non résolue

Parler d'une énigme non résolue, lorsqu'il est question de Jésus de Nazareth, paraît proche de la plaisanterie. Tout n'a-t-il pas été dit en 2000 ans de christianisme ? Le sujet n'est-il pas entièrement épuisé ? Or aujourd'hui, de nouvelles poussées viennent ébranler ce que l'on croyait acquis. Nous serions-nous laissés enfermer dans des réponses commodes, mais inexactes ? Daniel Marguerat avance cette question sur trois moments cruciaux de la vie du Galiléen : le baptême de Jésus par Jean le Baptiseur, le geste violent contre le Temple, et son exécution le 7 avril de l'an 30.

Medida de acoplamientos dipolares residuales en moléculas orgánicas

En aquest treball es descriu la preparació i l’ús d’un gel comprimit de polimetilmetacrilat (PMMA) com a mitjà d’alineament anisotròpic necessari per a la mesura de constants d’acoplament dipolars residuals (RDCs) mitjançant espectroscopia de Resonància Magnètica Nuclear (RMN). S’ha estudiat la variació del grau d’ordre del mitjà en funció de la seva compressió axial i s’han implementat diferentes versions de l’experiment HSQC amb la intenció de determinar quins mètodes són els més idonis per a la mesura de RDCs en termes de sensibilitat, resolució i precissió. El mètode s’ha aplicat en l’estudi conformacional de l’ibuprofen.

Three essays on liquidity risk

Preface In this thesis we study several questions related to transaction data measured at an individual level. The questions are addressed in three essays that will constitute this thesis. In the first essay we use tick-by-tick data to estimate non-parametrically the jump process of 37 big stocks traded on the Paris Stock Exchange, and of the CAC 40 index. We separate the total daily returns in three components (trading continuous, trading jump, and overnight), and we characterize each one of them. We estimate at the individual and index levels the contribution of each return component to the total daily variability. For the index, the contribution of jumps is smaller and it is compensated by the larger contribution of overnight returns. We test formally that individual stocks jump more frequently than the index, and that they do not respond independently to the arrive of news. Finally, we find that daily jumps are larger when their arrival rates are larger. At the contemporaneous level there is a strong negative correlation between the jump frequency and the trading activity measures. The second essay study the general properties of the trade- and volume-duration processes for two stocks traded on the Paris Stock Exchange. These two stocks correspond to a very illiquid stock and to a relatively liquid stock. We estimate a class of autoregressive gamma process with conditional distribution from the family of non-central gamma (up to a scale factor). This process was introduced by Gouriéroux and Jasiak and it is known as Autoregressive gamma process. We also evaluate the ability of the process to fit the data. For this purpose we use the Diebold, Gunther and Tay (1998) test; and the capacity of the model to reproduce the moments of the observed data, and the empirical serial correlation and the partial serial correlation functions. We establish that the model describes correctly the trade duration process of illiquid stocks, but have problems to adjust correctly the trade duration process of liquid stocks which present long-memory characteristics. When the model is adjusted to volume duration, it successfully fit the data. In the third essay we study the economic relevance of optimal liquidation strategies by calibrating a recent and realistic microstructure model with data from the Paris Stock Exchange. We distinguish the case of parameters which are constant through the day from time-varying ones. An optimization problem incorporating this realistic microstructure model is presented and solved. Our model endogenizes the number of trades required before the position is liquidated. A comparative static exercise demonstrates the realism of our model. We find that a sell decision taken in the morning will be liquidated by the early afternoon. If price impacts increase over the day, the liquidation will take place more rapidly.

Correspondance de MARCA avec F. BOSQUET. — Pièces diverses relatives à MARCA et à sa famille.

Contient : Lettres de Marca à François Bosquet (1er janvier 1654-28 avril 1662) ; en majeure partie autographes, rangées par ordre chronologique ; Lettre de Bosquet à Mazarin, 1er décembre 1643, — de Cl. de Rébé, archevêque de Narbonne, au même, du 17 novembre 1643 (copies de la main de Baluze) ; Lettres de Bosquet à Marca, en majeure partie autographes, rangées par ordre chronologique (13 mars 1640-30 juin 1654), parmi lesquelles (f. 90) deux lettres de Marca à Bosquet (14 mars et 28 avril 1662) ; Pièces concernant la famille de P. de Marca et sa biographie, parmi lesquelles on remarque : ; Deux lettres adressées à Marca par Marguerite d'Espenan (15 janvier 1660 et 13 décembre 1659 ; originaux.) ; Contrats de mariage de Jérome de Marca (12 février 1341-1342 n. st.) et de son fils Pierre (7 juin 1398) ; copies de la main de Baluze ; Notice sommaire sur Marca, par le même ; Note sur la famille de Marca, depuis 1118, et sur la vie de P. de Marca jusqu'en 1652 ; Généalogies des maisons de Lavedan et de Marca, de la main de P. de Marca ; Mémoires sur les maisons de la Marque en Gascogne et de Rivière en Bigorre ; placards imprimés, extraits du Dictionnaire de Moreri, éd. Vaultier (2 exemplaires) ; Donation d'une somme de 2.000 écus faite par Henri III à Arnauld d'Ossat, 18 juillet 1586 (original) ; Lettres écrites par M. d'Ossat à Thomas de Marca (10 mai 1559-mai 1562) ; Lettre du même à M. de Castille, receveur du clergé, 18 mai 1587 (original) ; Procurations données par le même pour la perception des 2.000 écus à lui attribués (11 février 1588-19 mai 1587) ; originaux, dont le second est accompagné d'un sceau de cire rouge sur cordelettes ; Notice sur la vie de Marca depuis 1652 [cf. supra, f. 117] ; Note sur les dates principales de la vie de Marca (en espagnol) ; Copie des certificats de tonsure, etc. de Marca (1608) ; Billet de La Reynie, 8 janvier 1703 (original) ; Nomination de Marca comme conseiller d'Etat, 15 novembre 1658 ; Note sur la nomination du même à l'évêché de Conserans ; Mémoire sur la censure faite à Rome du De concordia Sacerdotii et Imperii (imprimé de 2 pages in-fol. ; 2 exemplaires) ; Note sur les affaires d'Espagne ; « Commission à MM. les archevesque de Toulouse et evesque d'Orange pour convenir avec les commissaires du roy d'Espagne des limites des deux royaumes du costé de Catalogne. » ; Notes de Baluze sur le projet d'une nouvelle édition du De concordia, et mémoires envoyés par lui sur ce sujet à Le Tellier (21 juin et 18 décembre 1663) ; Arrêt du Conseil d'état condamnant les Lettres de l'autheur des reigles très importantes au sieur de Marca (imprimé de 7 pages in-4° ; Paris, 1659) ; Bref de N. S. P. le pape Alexandre VII escrit à Monseigneur de Marca, du 5 juin 1662 (imprimé de 4 pages in-4° ; Paris, 1662) ; Mémoire pour servir au jugement de l'instance générale de la régale (imprimé de 14 pages in-4° ; s. l. n. d.) ; Mémoire sur la censure du De concordia ; Profession de foi de Marca, renonçant aux opinions contraires à la doctrine de l'Église romaine émises dans le De concordia ; Note sur les derniers moments de Marca ; Note relative à l'affaire du De concordia ; imprimé, 2 p. in-4°, s. l. n. d ; Petrus de Marca lectori ; Barcelone, 14 août 1646 ; imprimé de 4 pages in-4° (3 exemplaires)