Options for enhancing the biodiversity value of intensive livestock farms: experience from the English agri-environment schemes

Permanent grassland makes up a greater proportion of the agricultural area in the UK and Ireland than in any other EU country, representing 60% and 72% of UAA respectively (Eurostat 2007). Of the permanent grassland in the UK, approximately half (about 6 million hectares) comprises improved grassland on moist or free-draining neutral soils typical of lowland livestock farms. These swards tend to have low plant species richness and are typically dominated by perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne). The aim of this paper is to review the ways in which biodiversity of such farmland can be enhanced, focussing on the evidence behind management options in English agri-environment schemes (AES) at a range of scales and utilising a range of mechanisms.

Combining satellite data and models to estimate cloud radiative effect at the surface and in the atmosphere

Satellite measurements and numerical forecast model reanalysis data are used to compute an updated estimate of the cloud radiative effect on the global multi-annual mean radiative energy budget of the atmosphere and surface. The cloud radiative cooling effect through reflection of shortwave radiation dominates over the longwave heating effect, resulting in a net cooling of the climate system of –21 Wm-2. The shortwave radiative effect of cloud is primarily manifest as a reduction in the solar radiation absorbed at the surface of -53 Wm-2. Clouds impact longwave radiation by heating the moist tropical atmosphere (up to around 40 Wm-2 for global annual means) while enhancing the radiative cooling of the atmosphere over other regions, in particular higher latitudes and sub-tropical marine stratocumulus regimes. While clouds act to cool the climate system during the daytime, the cloud greenhouse effect heats the climate system at night. The influence of cloud radiative effect on determining cloud feedbacks and changes in the water cycle are discussed.

Conditional symmetric instability in sting-jet storms

Sting jets are transient mesoscale jets of air that descend from the tip of the cloud head towards the top of the boundary layer in severe extratropical cyclones and can lead to damaging surface wind gusts. This recently identified jet is distinct from the well-documented jets associated with the cold and warm conveyor belts. One mechanism proposed for their development is the release of conditional symmetric instability (CSI). Here the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of several CSI diagnostics in four severe storms are analysed. A sting jet has been identified in three of these storms; for comparison, we also analysed one storm that did not have a sting jet, even though it hadmany of the apparent features of sting-jet storms. The sting-jet storms are distinct from the non-sting-jet storms by having much greater andmore extensive conditional instability (CI) and CSI. CSI is released by ascending air parcels in the cloud head in two of the sting-jet storms and by descending air parcels in the other sting-jet storm. By contrast, only weak CI to ascending air parcels is present at the cloud-head tip in the non-sting-jet storm. CSI released by descending air parcels, as diagnosed by decaying downdraught slantwise convective available potential energy (DSCAPE), is collocated with the sting jets in all three sting-jet storms and has a localisedmaximum in two of them. Consistent evolutions of saturated moist potential vorticity are found.We conclude that CSI release has a role in the generation of the sting jet, that the sting jet may be driven by the release of instability to both ascending and descending parcels, and that DSCAPE could be used as a discriminating diagnostic for the sting jet based on these four case-studies.

Objective detection of sting jets in low-resolution datasets

Sting jets are transient coherent mesoscale strong wind features that can cause damaging surface wind gusts in extratropical cyclones. Currently, we have only limited knowledge of their climatological characteristics. Numerical weather prediction models require enough resolution to represent slantwise motions with horizontal scales of tens of kilometres and vertical scales of just a few hundred metres to represent sting jets. Hence, the climatological characteristics of sting jets and the associated extratropical cyclones can not be determined by searching for sting jets in low-resolution datasets such as reanalyses. A diagnostic is presented and evaluated for the detection in low-resolution datasets of atmospheric regions from which sting jets may originate. Previous studies have shown that conditional symmetric instability (CSI) is present in all storms studied with sting jets, while other, rapidly developing storms of a similar character but no CSI do not develop sting jets. Therefore, we assume that the release of CSI is needed for sting jets to develop. While this instability will not be released in a physically realistic way in low-resolution models (and hence sting jets are unlikely to occur), it is hypothesized that the signature of this instability (combined with other criteria that restrict analysis to moist mid-tropospheric regions in the neighbourhood of a secondary cold front) can be used to identify cyclones in which sting jets occurred in reality. The diagnostic is evaluated, and appropriate parameter thresholds defined, by applying it to three case studies simulated using two resolutions (with CSI-release resolved in only the higher-resolution simulation).

Ventilation effects on humidity measurements in thermometer screens

Relative humidity (RH) measurements, as derived from wet-bulb and dry-bulb thermometers operated as a psychrometer within a thermometer screen, have limited accuracy because of natural ventilation variations. Standard RH calculations generally assume a fixed screen psychrometer coefficient, but this is too small during poor ventilation. By comparing a reference humidity probe—exposed within a screen containing a psychrometer—with wind-speed measurements under controlled conditions, a wind-speed correction for the screen psychrometer coefficient has been derived and applicable when 2-metre wind speeds fall below 3 ms–1. Applying this to hourly-averaged data reduced the mean moist RH bias of the psychrometer (over the reference probe) from 1.2% to 0.4%, and reduced the inter-quartile range of the RH differences from 2.0% to 0.8%. This correction is particularly amenable to automatic measurement systems.

The Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE): CONTROL SST Simulation

Climate simulations by 16 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are compared on an aqua-planet, a water-covered Earth with prescribed sea surface temperature varying only in latitude. The idealised configuration is designed to expose differences in the circulation simulated by different models. Basic features of the aqua-planet climate are characterised by comparison with Earth. The models display a wide range of behaviour. The balanced component of the tropospheric mean flow, and mid-latitude eddy covariances subject to budget constraints, vary relatively little among the models. In contrast, differences in damping in the dynamical core strongly influence transient eddy amplitudes. Historical uncertainty in modelled lower stratospheric temperatures persists in APE. Aspects of the circulation generated more directly by interactions between the resolved fluid dynamics and parameterized moist processes vary greatly. The tropical Hadley circulation forms either a single or double inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) at the equator, with large variations in mean precipitation. The equatorial wave spectrum shows a wide range of precipitation intensity and propagation characteristics. Kelvin mode-like eastward propagation with remarkably constant phase speed dominates in most models. Westward propagation, less dispersive than the equatorial Rossby modes, dominates in a few models or occurs within an eastward propagating envelope in others. The mean structure of the ITCZ is related to precipitation variability, consistent with previous studies. The aqua-planet global energy balance is unknown but the models produce a surprisingly large range of top of atmosphere global net flux, dominated by differences in shortwave reflection by clouds. A number of newly developed models, not optimised for Earth climate, contribute to this. Possible reasons for differences in the optimised models are discussed. The aqua-planet configuration is intended as one component of an experimental hierarchy used to evaluate AGCMs. This comparison does suggest that the range of model behaviour could be better understood and reduced in conjunction with Earth climate simulations. Controlled experimentation is required to explore individual model behaviour and investigate convergence of the aqua-planet climate with increasing resolution.

Convective quasi–equilibrium

The concept of convective quasi–equilibrium (CQE) is a key ingredient in order to understand the role of deep moist convection in the atmosphere. It has been used as a guiding principle to develop almost all convective parameterizations and provides a basic theoretical framework for large–scale tropical dynamics. The CQE concept as originally proposed by Arakawa and Schubert [1974] is systematically reviewed from wider perspectives. Various interpretations and extensions of Arakawa and Schubert’s CQE are considered in terms of both a thermodynamic analogy and as a dynamical balance. The thermodynamic interpretations can be more emphatically embraced as a homeostasis. The dynamic balance interpretations can be best understood by analogy with the slow manifold. Various criticisms of CQE can be avoided by taking the dynamic balance interpretation. Possible limits of CQE are also discussed, including the importance of triggering in many convective situations, as well as the possible self–organized criticality of tropical convection. However, the most intriguing aspect of the CQE concept is that, in spite of many observational tests supporting and interpreting it in many different senses, it has 1never been established in a robust manner based on a systematic analysis of the cloud–work function budget by observations as was originally defined.

Under what conditions does embedded convection enhance orographic precipitation?

Idealised convection-permitting simulations are used to quantify the impact of embedded convection on the precipitation generated by moist flow over midlatitude mountain ridges. A broad range of mountain dimensions and moist stabilities are considered to encompass a spectrum of physically plausible flows. The simulations reveal that convection only enhances orographic precipitation in cap clouds that are otherwise unable to efficiently convert cloud condensate into precipitate. For tall and wide mountains (e.g. the Washington Cascades or the southern Andes), precipitate forms efficiently through vapour deposition and collection, even in the absence of embedded convection. When embedded convection develops in such clouds, it produces competing effects (enhanced condensation in updraughts and enhanced evaporation through turbulent mixing and compensating subsidence) that cancel to yield little net change in precipitation. By contrast, convection strongly enhances precipitation over short and narrow mountains (e.g. the UK Pennines or the Oregon Coastal Range) where precipitation formation is otherwise highly inefficient. Although cancellation between increased condensation and evaporation still occurs, the enhanced precipitation formation within the convective updraughts leads to a net increase in precipitation efficiency. The simulations are physically interpreted through non-dimensional diagnostics and relevant time-scales that govern advective, microphysical, and convective processes.

The large-scale circulation change at the end of the Baiu season in Japan as seen in ERA40 data

The time evolution of the circulation change at the end of the Baiu season is investigated using ERA40 data. An end-day is defined for each of the 23 years based on the 850 hPa θe value at 40˚Nin the 130-140˚E sector exceeding 330 K. Daily time series of variables are composited with respect to this day. These composite time-series exhibit a clearer and more rapid change in the precipitation and the large-scale circulation over the whole East Asia region than those performed using calendar days. The precipitation change includes the abrupt end of the Baiu rain, the northward shift of tropical convection perhaps starting a few days before this, and the start of the heavier rain at higher latitudes. The northward migration of lower tropospheric warm, moist tropical air, a general feature of the seasonal march in the region, is fast over the continent and slow over the ocean. By mid to late July the cooler air over the Sea of Japan is surrounded on 3 sides by the tropical air. It is suggestive that the large-scale stage has been set for a jump to the post-Baiu state, i.e., for the end of the Baiu season. Two likely triggers for the actual change emerge from the analysis. The first is the northward movement of tropical convection into the Philippine region. The second is an equivalent barotropic Rossby wave-train, that over a 10-day period develops downstream across Eurasia. It appears likely that in most years one or both mechanisms can be important in triggering the actual end of the Baiu season.

Vegetation and environmental dynamics in the southern Black Sea region since 18 kyr BP derived from the marine core 22-GC3

Sediments from the Black Sea, a region historically dominated by forests and steppe landscapes, are a valuable source of detailed information on the changes in regional terrestrial and aquatic environments at decadal to millennial scales. Here we present multi-proxy environmental records (pollen, dinoflagellate cysts, Ca, Ti and oxygen isotope data) from the uppermost 305 cm of the core 22-GC3 (42°13.53′N, 36°29.55′E) collected from a water depth of 838 m in the southern part of the Black Sea in 2007. The records span the last ~ 18 kyr (all ages are given in cal kyr BP). The pollen data reveal the dominance of the Artemisia-steppe in the region, suggesting rather dry/cold environments ~ 18–14.5 kyr BP. Warming/humidity increase during melt-water pulses (~ 16.1–14.5 kyr BP), indicated by δ18O records from the 22-GC3 core sediment and from the Sofular Cave stalagmite, is expressed in more negative δ13C values from the Sofular Cave, usually interpreted as the spreading of C3 plants. The records representing the interstadial complex (~ 14.5–12.9 kyr BP) show an increase in temperature and moisture, indicated by forest development, increased primary productivity and reduced surface run-off, whereas the switch from primary terrigenous to primary authigenic Ca origin occurs ~ 500 yr later. The Younger Dryas cooling is clearly demonstrated by more negative δ13C values from the Sofular Cave and a reduction of pines. The early Holocene (11.7–8.5 kyr BP) interval reveals relatively dry conditions compared to the mostly moist and warm middle Holocene (8.5–5 kyr BP), which is characterized by the establishment of the species-rich warm mixed and temperate deciduous forests in the low elevation belt, temperate deciduous beech-hornbeam forests in the middle and cool conifer forest in upper mountain belt. The border between the early and middle Holocene in the vegetation records coincides with the opening of the Mediterranean corridor at ~ 8.3 kyr BP, as indicated by a marked change in the dinocyst assemblages and in the sediment lithology. Changes in the pollen assemblages indicate a reduction in forest cover after ~ 5 kyr BP, which was likely caused by increased anthropogenic pressure on the regional vegetation.

Climate warming–related strengthening of the tropical hydrological cycle

The authors estimate climate warming–related twenty-first-century changes of moisture transports from the descending into the ascending regions in the tropics. Unlike previous studies that employ time and space averaging, here homogeneous high horizontal and vertical resolution data from an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) climate model are used. This allows for estimating changes in much greater detail (e.g., the estimation of the distribution of ascending and descending regions, changes in the vertical profile, and separating changes of the inward and outward transports). Low-level inward and midlevel outward moisture transports of the convective regions in the tropics are found to increase in a simulated anthropogenically warmed climate as compared to a simulated twentieth-century atmosphere, indicating an intensification of the hydrological cycle. Since an increase of absolute inward transport exceeds the absolute increase of outward transport, the resulting budget is positive, meaning that more water is projected to converge in the moist tropics. The intensification is found mainly to be due to the higher amount of water in the atmosphere, while the contribution of weakening wind counteracts this response marginally. In addition the changing statistical properties of the vertical profile of the moisture transport are investigated and the importance of the substantial outflow of moisture from the moist tropics at midlevels is demonstrated.

Seed development and maturation in early spring-flowering Galanthus nivalis and Narcissus pseudonarcissus continues post-shedding with little evidence of maturation in planta

Background and Aims: Seeds of the moist temperate woodland species Galanthus nivalis and Narcissus pseudonarcissus, dispersed during spring or early summer, germinated poorly in laboratory tests. Seed development and maturation were studied to better understand the progression from developmental to germinable mode in order to improve seed collection and germination practices in these and similar species. Methods: Phenology, seed mass, moisture content, and ability to germinate and tolerate desiccation were monitored during seed development until shedding. Embryo elongation within seeds was investigated during seed development and at several temperature regimes after shedding. Key Results: Seeds were shed at high moisture content (> 59%) with little evidence that dry mass accumulation or embryo elongation were complete. Ability to germinate developed prior to the ability of some seeds to tolerate enforced desiccation. Germination was sporadic and slow. Embryo elongation occurred post-shedding in moist environments, most rapidly at 20C in G. nivalis and 15C in N. pseudonarcissus. The greatest germination also occurred in these regimes, 78 and 48%, respectively, after 700 d. Conclusions: Seeds of G. nivalis and N. pseudonarcissus seeds were comparatively immature at shedding and substantial embryo elongation occurred post-shedding. Seeds showed limited desiccation tolerance at dispersal.

Departures from convective equilibrium with a rapidly-varying surface forcing

Convective equilibrium is a long-standing and useful concept for understanding many aspects of the behaviour of deep moist convection. For example, it is often invoked in developing parameterizations for large-scale models. However, the equilibrium assumption may begin to break down as models are increasingly used with shorter timesteps and finer resolutions. Here we perform idealized cloud-system resolving model simulations of deep convection with imposed time variations in the surface forcing. A range of rapid forcing timescales from 1 − 36hr are used, in order to induce systematic departures from equilibrium. For the longer forcing timescales, the equilibrium assumption remains valid, in at least the limited sense that cycle-integrated measures of convective activity are very similar from cycle to cycle. For shorter forcing timescales, cycle-integrated convection becomes more variable, with enhanced activity on one cycle being correlated with reduced activity on the next, suggesting a role for convective memory. Further investigation shows that the memory does not appear to be carried by the domain-mean thermodynamic fields but rather by structures on horizontal scales of 5 − 20km. Such structures are produced by the convective clouds and can persist beyond the lifetime of the cloud, even through to the next forcing cycle.

The changing energy balance of the polar regions in a warmer climate

Energy fluxes for polar regions are examined for two 30-year periods, representing the end of the 20th and 21st centuries, using data from high resolution simulations with the ECHAM5 climate model. The net radiation to space for the present climate agrees well with data from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) over the northern polar region but shows an underestimation in planetary albedo for the southern polar region. This suggests there are systematic errors in the atmospheric circulation or in the net surface energy fluxes in the southern polar region. The simulation of the future climate is based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. The total energy transport is broadly the same for the two 30 year periods, but there is an increase in the moist energy transport of the order of 6 W m−2 and a corresponding reduction in the dry static energy. For the southern polar region the proportion of moist energy transport is larger and the dry static energy correspondingly smaller for both periods. The results suggest a possible mechanism for the warming of the Arctic that is discussed. Changes between the 20th and 21st centuries in the northern polar region show the net ocean surface radiation flux in summer increases ~18W m−2 (24%). For the southern polar region the response is different as there is a decrease in surface solar radiation. We suggest that this is caused by changes in cloudiness associated with the poleward migration of the storm tracks.

The variable link between PNA and NAO in observations and in multi-century CGCM simulations

The link between the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated in reanalysis data (NCEP, ERA40) and multi-century CGCM runs for present day climate using three versions of the ECHAM model. PNA and NAO patterns and indices are determined via rotated principal component analysis on monthly mean 500 hPa geopotential height fields using the varimax criteria. On average, the multi-century CGCM simulations show a significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO. Further, multi-decadal periods with significantly enhanced (high anti-correlation, active phase) or weakened (low correlations, inactive phase) coupling are found in all CGCMs. In the simulated active phases, the storm track activity near Newfoundland has a stronger link with the PNA variability than during the inactive phases. On average, the reanalysis datasets show no significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO indices, but during the sub-period 1973–1994 a significant anti-correlation is detected, suggesting that the present climate could correspond to an inactive period as detected in the CGCMs. An analysis of possible physical mechanisms suggests that the link between the patterns is established by the baroclinic waves forming the North Atlantic storm track. The geopotential height anomalies associated with negative PNA phases induce an increased advection of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and cold air from Canada. Both types of advection contribute to increase baroclinicity over eastern North America and also to increase the low level latent heat content of the warm air masses. Thus, growth conditions for eddies at the entrance of the North Atlantic storm track are enhanced. Considering the average temporal development during winter for the CGCM, results show an enhanced Newfoundland storm track maximum in the early winter for negative PNA, followed by a downstream enhancement of the Atlantic storm track in the subsequent months. In active (passive) phases, this seasonal development is enhanced (suppressed). As the storm track over the central and eastern Atlantic is closely related to the NAO variability, this development can be explained by the shift of the NAO index to more positive values.