Development and Application of Predictive Models for Survival, Growth, and Death of Enteric Pathogens in Leafy Greens Supply Chain

Leafy greens are essential part of a healthy diet. Because of their health benefits, production and consumption of leafy greens has increased considerably in the U.S. in the last few decades. However, leafy greens are also associated with a large number of foodborne disease outbreaks in the last few years. The overall goal of this dissertation was to use the current knowledge of predictive models and available data to understand the growth, survival, and death of enteric pathogens in leafy greens at pre- and post-harvest levels. Temperature plays a major role in the growth and death of bacteria in foods. A growth-death model was developed for Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy greens for varying temperature conditions typically encountered during supply chain. The developed growth-death models were validated using experimental dynamic time-temperature profiles available in the literature. Furthermore, these growth-death models for Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes and a similar model for E. coli O157:H7 were used to predict the growth of these pathogens in leafy greens during transportation without temperature control. Refrigeration of leafy greens meets the purposes of increasing their shelf-life and mitigating the bacterial growth, but at the same time, storage of foods at lower temperature increases the storage cost. Nonlinear programming was used to optimize the storage temperature of leafy greens during supply chain while minimizing the storage cost and maintaining the desired levels of sensory quality and microbial safety. Most of the outbreaks associated with consumption of leafy greens contaminated with E. coli O157:H7 have occurred during July-November in the U.S. A dynamic system model consisting of subsystems and inputs (soil, irrigation, cattle, wildlife, and rainfall) simulating a farm in a major leafy greens producing area in California was developed. The model was simulated incorporating the events of planting, irrigation, harvesting, ground preparation for the new crop, contamination of soil and plants, and survival of E. coli O157:H7. The predictions of this system model are in agreement with the seasonality of outbreaks. This dissertation utilized the growth, survival, and death models of enteric pathogens in leafy greens during production and supply chain.

Predictive Models for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Spread Dynamics, Considering Frankliniella occidentalis Specific Life Processes as Influenced by the Virus

Several models have been studied on predictive epidemics of arthropod vectored plant viruses in an attempt to bring understanding to the complex but specific relationship between the three cornered pathosystem (virus, vector and host plant), as well as their interactions with the environment. A large body of studies mainly focuses on weather based models as management tool for monitoring pests and diseases, with very few incorporating the contribution of vector's life processes in the disease dynamics, which is an essential aspect when mitigating virus incidences in a crop stand. In this study, we hypothesized that the multiplication and spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in a crop stand is strongly related to its influences on Frankliniella occidentalis preferential behavior and life expectancy. Model dynamics of important aspects in disease development within TSWV-F. occidentalis-host plant interactions were developed, focusing on F. occidentalis' life processes as influenced by TSWV. The results show that the influence of TSWV on F. occidentalis preferential behaviour leads to an estimated increase in relative acquisition rate of the virus, and up to 33% increase in transmission rate to healthy plants. Also, increased life expectancy; which relates to improved fitness, is dependent on the virus induced preferential behaviour, consequently promoting multiplication and spread of the virus in a crop stand. The development of vector-based models could further help in elucidating the role of tri-trophic interactions in agricultural disease systems. Use of the model to examine the components of the disease process could also boost our understanding on how specific epidemiological characteristics interact to cause diseases in crops. With this level of understanding we can efficiently develop more precise control strategies for the virus and the vector.

Inverted decoupling internal model control for square stable multivariable time delay systems

This paper presents a new tuning methodology of the main controller of an internal model control structure for n×n stable multivariable processes with multiple time delays based on the centralized inverted decoupling structure. Independently of the system size, very simple general expressions for the controller elements are obtained. The realizability conditions are provided and the specification of the closed-loop requirements is explained. A diagonal filter is added to the proposed control structure in order to improve the disturbance rejection without modifying the nominal set-point response. The effectiveness of the method is illustrated through different simulation examples in comparison with other works.

Towards a predictive model of Ca²⁺ puffs

We investigate key characteristics of Ca²⁺ puffs in deterministic and stochastic frameworks that all incorporate the cellular morphology of IP[subscript]3 receptor channel clusters. In a first step, we numerically study Ca²⁺ liberation in a three dimensional representation of a cluster environment with reaction-diffusion dynamics in both the cytosol and the lumen. These simulations reveal that Ca²⁺ concentrations at a releasing cluster range from 80 µM to 170 µM and equilibrate almost instantaneously on the time scale of the release duration. These highly elevated Ca²⁺ concentrations eliminate Ca²⁺ oscillations in a deterministic model of an IP[subscript]3R channel cluster at physiological parameter values as revealed by a linear stability analysis. The reason lies in the saturation of all feedback processes in the IP[subscript]3R gating dynamics, so that only fluctuations can restore experimentally observed Ca²⁺ oscillations. In this spirit, we derive master equations that allow us to analytically quantify the onset of Ca²⁺ puffs and hence the stochastic time scale of intracellular Ca²⁺ dynamics. Moving up the spatial scale, we suggest to formulate cellular dynamics in terms of waiting time distribution functions. This approach prevents the state space explosion that is typical for the description of cellular dynamics based on channel states and still contains information on molecular fluctuations. We illustrate this method by studying global Ca²⁺ oscillations.

Development of an innovative non rule-based energy management strategy for a Hybrid Electric Vehicle, structured for predictive driving controls based on external information knowledge

Recently, the interest of the automotive market for hybrid vehicles has increased due to the more restrictive pollutants emissions legislation and to the necessity of decreasing the fossil fuel consumption, since such solution allows a consistent improvement of the vehicle global efficiency. The term hybridization regards the energy flow in the powertrain of a vehicle: a standard vehicle has, usually, only one energy source and one energy tank; instead, a hybrid vehicle has at least two energy sources. In most cases, the prime mover is an internal combustion engine (ICE) while the auxiliary energy source can be mechanical, electrical, pneumatic or hydraulic. It is expected from the control unit of a hybrid vehicle the use of the ICE in high efficiency working zones and to shut it down when it is more convenient, while using the EMG at partial loads and as a fast torque response during transients. However, the battery state of charge may represent a limitation for such a strategy. That’s the reason why, in most cases, energy management strategies are based on the State Of Charge, or SOC, control. Several studies have been conducted on this topic and many different approaches have been illustrated. The purpose of this dissertation is to develop an online (usable on-board) control strategy in which the operating modes are defined using an instantaneous optimization method that minimizes the equivalent fuel consumption of a hybrid electric vehicle. The equivalent fuel consumption is calculated by taking into account the total energy used by the hybrid powertrain during the propulsion phases. The first section presents the hybrid vehicles characteristics. The second chapter describes the global model, with a particular focus on the energy management strategies usable for the supervisory control of such a powertrain. The third chapter shows the performance of the implemented controller on a NEDC cycle compared with the one obtained with the original control strategy.

Health beliefs affect the correct replacement of daily disposable contact lenses:predicting compliance with the Health Belief Model and the Theory of Planned Behaviour

Purpose: To assess the compliance of Daily Disposable Contact Lenses (DDCLs) wearers with replacing lenses at a manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency. To evaluate the ability of two different Health Behavioural Theories (HBT), The Health Belief Model (HBM) and The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), in predicting compliance. Method: A multi-centre survey was conducted using a questionnaire completed anonymously by contact lens wearers during the purchase of DDCLs. Results: Three hundred and fifty-four questionnaires were returned. The survey comprised 58.5% females and 41.5% males (mean age 34. ±. 12. years). Twenty-three percent of respondents were non-compliant with manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency (re-using DDCLs at least once). The main reason for re-using DDCLs was "to save money" (35%). Predictions of compliance behaviour (past behaviour or future intentions) on the basis of the two HBT was investigated through logistic regression analysis: both TPB factors (subjective norms and perceived behavioural control) were significant (p. <. 0.01); HBM was less predictive with only the severity (past behaviour and future intentions) and perceived benefit (only for past behaviour) as significant factors (p. <. 0.05). Conclusions: Non-compliance with DDCLs replacement is widespread, affecting 1 out of 4 Italian wearers. Results from the TPB model show that the involvement of persons socially close to the wearers (subjective norms) and the improvement of the procedure of behavioural control of daily replacement (behavioural control) are of paramount importance in improving compliance. With reference to the HBM, it is important to warn DDCLs wearers of the severity of a contact-lens-related eye infection, and to underline the possibility of its prevention.

Radiobiological model comparison of 3D conformal radiotherapy and IMRT plans for the treatment of prostate cancer

The main aim of radiotherapy is to deliver a dose of radiation that is high enough to destroy the tumour cells while at the same time minimising the damage to normal healthy tissues. Clinically, this has been achieved by assigning a prescription dose to the tumour volume and a set of dose constraints on critical structures. Once an optimal treatment plan has been achieved the dosimetry is assessed using the physical parameters of dose and volume. There has been an interest in using radiobiological parameters to evaluate and predict the outcome of a treatment plan in terms of both a tumour control probability (TCP) and a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). In this study, simple radiobiological models that are available in a commercial treatment planning system were used to compare three dimensional conformal radiotherapy treatments (3D-CRT) and intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) treatments of the prostate. Initially both 3D-CRT and IMRT were planned for 2 Gy/fraction to a total dose of 60 Gy to the prostate. The sensitivity of the TCP and the NTCP to both conventional dose escalation and hypo-fractionation was investigated. The biological responses were calculated using the Källman S-model. The complication free tumour control probability (P+) is generated from the combined NTCP and TCP response values. It has been suggested that the alpha/beta ratio for prostate carcinoma cells may be lower than for most other tumour cell types. The effect of this on the modelled biological response for the different fractionation schedules was also investigated.

A natural model for architecture : the nature of the evolutionary model 1995

John Frazer's architectural work is inspired by living and generative processes. Both evolutionary and revolutionary, it explores informatin ecologies and the dynamics of the spaces between objects. Fuelled by an interest in the cybernetic work of Gordon Pask and Norbert Wiener, and the possibilities of the computer and the "new science" it has facilitated, Frazer and his team of collaborators have conducted a series of experiments that utilize genetic algorithms, cellular automata, emergent behaviour, complexity and feedback loops to create a truly dynamic architecture. Frazer studied at the Architectural Association (AA) in London from 1963 to 1969, and later became unit master of Diploma Unit 11 there. He was subsequently Director of Computer-Aided Design at the University of Ulter - a post he held while writing An Evolutionary Architecture in 1995 - and a lecturer at the University of Cambridge. In 1983 he co-founded Autographics Software Ltd, which pioneered microprocessor graphics. Frazer was awarded a person chair at the University of Ulster in 1984. In Frazer's hands, architecture becomes machine-readable, formally open-ended and responsive. His work as computer consultant to Cedric Price's Generator Project of 1976 (see P84)led to the development of a series of tools and processes; these have resulted in projects such as the Calbuild Kit (1985) and the Universal Constructor (1990). These subsequent computer-orientated architectural machines are makers of architectural form beyond the full control of the architect-programmer. Frazer makes much reference to the multi-celled relationships found in nature, and their ongoing morphosis in response to continually changing contextual criteria. He defines the elements that describe his evolutionary architectural model thus: "A genetic code script, rules for the development of the code, mapping of the code to a virtual model, the nature of the environment for the development of the model and, most importantly, the criteria for selection. In setting out these parameters for designing evolutionary architectures, Frazer goes beyond the usual notions of architectural beauty and aesthetics. Nevertheless his work is not without an aesthetic: some pieces are a frenzy of mad wire, while others have a modularity that is reminiscent of biological form. Algorithms form the basis of Frazer's designs. These algorithms determine a variety of formal results dependent on the nature of the information they are given. His work, therefore, is always dynamic, always evolving and always different. Designing with algorithms is also critical to other architects featured in this book, such as Marcos Novak (see p150). Frazer has made an unparalleled contribution to defining architectural possibilities for the twenty-first century, and remains an inspiration to architects seeking to create responsive environments. Architects were initially slow to pick up on the opportunities that the computer provides. These opportunities are both representational and spatial: computers can help architects draw buildings and, more importantly, they can help architects create varied spaces, both virtual and actual. Frazer's work was groundbreaking in this respect, and well before its time.

A framework for analyzing system intelligence of the building control system : a study of the integrated building management system

The lack of satisfactory consensus for characterizing the system intelligence and structured analytical decision models has inhibited the developers and practitioners to understand and configure optimum intelligent building systems in a fully informed manner. So far, little research has been conducted in this aspect. This research is designed to identify the key intelligent indicators, and develop analytical models for computing the system intelligence score of smart building system in the intelligent building. The integrated building management system (IBMS) was used as an illustrative example to present a framework. The models presented in this study applied the system intelligence theory, and the conceptual analytical framework. A total of 16 key intelligent indicators were first identified from a general survey. Then, two multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approaches, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and analytic network process (ANP), were employed to develop the system intelligence analytical models. Top intelligence indicators of IBMS include: self-diagnostic of operation deviations; adaptive limiting control algorithm; and, year-round time schedule performance. The developed conceptual framework was then transformed to the practical model. The effectiveness of the practical model was evaluated by means of expert validation. The main contribution of this research is to promote understanding of the intelligent indicators, and to set the foundation for a systemic framework that provide developers and building stakeholders a consolidated inclusive tool for the system intelligence evaluation of the proposed components design configurations.

Delay-dependent robust H-infinity control for uncertain systems with time-varying delay

This paper proposes a new approach for delay-dependent robust H-infinity stability analysis and control synthesis of uncertain systems with time-varying delay. The key features of the approach include the introduction of a new Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional, the construction of an augmented matrix with uncorrelated terms, and the employment of a tighter bounding technique. As a result, significant performance improvement is achieved in system analysis and synthesis without using either free weighting matrices or model transformation. Examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

A study of vibration and vibration control of ship structures

This paper examines the vibration characteristics and vibration control of complex ship structures. It is shown that input mobilities of a ship structure at engine supports, due to out-of-plane force or bending moment excitations, are governed by the flexural stiffness of the engine supports. The frequency averaged input mobilities of the ship structure, due to such excitations, can be represented by those of the corresponding infinite beam. The torsional moment input mobility at the engine support can be estimated from the torsional response of the engine bed section under direct excitation. It is found that the inclusion of ship hull and deck plates in the ship structure model has little effect on the frequency-averaged response of the ship structure. This study also shows that vibration propagation in complex ship structures at low frequencies can be attenuated by imposing irregularities to the ring frame locations in ships. Vibration responses of ship structures due to machinery excitations at higher frequencies can be controlled by structural modifications of the local supporting structures such as engine beds in ships.

Passive control of a bi-ventricular assist device : an experimental and numerical investigation

For the last two decades heart disease has been the highest single cause of death for the human population. With an alarming number of patients requiring heart transplant, and donations not able to satisfy the demand, treatment looks to mechanical alternatives. Rotary Ventricular Assist Devices, VADs, are miniature pumps which can be implanted alongside the heart to assist its pumping function. These constant flow devices are smaller, more efficient and promise a longer operational life than more traditional pulsatile VADs. The development of rotary VADs has focused on single pumps assisting the left ventricle only to supply blood for the body. In many patients however, failure of both ventricles demands that an additional pulsatile device be used to support the failing right ventricle. This condition renders them hospital bound while they wait for an unlikely heart donation. Reported attempts to use two rotary pumps to support both ventricles concurrently have warned of inherent haemodynamic instability. Poor balancing of the pumps’ flow rates quickly leads to vascular congestion increasing the risk of oedema and ventricular ‘suckdown’ occluding the inlet to the pump. This thesis introduces a novel Bi-Ventricular Assist Device (BiVAD) configuration where the pump outputs are passively balanced by vascular pressure. The BiVAD consists of two rotary pumps straddling the mechanical passive controller. Fluctuations in vascular pressure induce small deflections within both pumps adjusting their outputs allowing them to maintain arterial pressure. To optimise the passive controller’s interaction with the circulation, the controller’s dynamic response is optimised with a spring, mass, damper arrangement. This two part study presents a comprehensive assessment of the prototype’s ‘viability’ as a support device. Its ‘viability’ was considered based on its sensitivity to pathogenic haemodynamics and the ability of the passive response to maintain healthy circulation. The first part of the study is an experimental investigation where a prototype device was designed and built, and then tested in a pulsatile mock circulation loop. The BiVAD was subjected to a range of haemodynamic imbalances as well as a dynamic analysis to assess the functionality of the mechanical damper. The second part introduces the development of a numerical program to simulate human circulation supported by the passively controlled BiVAD. Both investigations showed that the prototype was able to mimic the native baroreceptor response. Simulating hypertension, poor flow balancing and subsequent ventricular failure during BiVAD support allowed the passive controller’s response to be assessed. Triggered by the resulting pressure imbalance, the controller responded by passively adjusting the VAD outputs in order to maintain healthy arterial pressures. This baroreceptor-like response demonstrated the inherent stability of the auto regulating BiVAD prototype. Simulating pulmonary hypertension in the more observable numerical model, however, revealed a serious issue with the passive response. The subsequent decrease in venous return into the left heart went unnoticed by the passive controller. Meanwhile the coupled nature of the passive response not only decreased RVAD output to reduce pulmonary arterial pressure, but it also increased LVAD output. Consequently, the LVAD increased fluid evacuation from the left ventricle, LV, and so actually accelerated the onset of LV collapse. It was concluded that despite the inherently stable baroreceptor-like response of the passive controller, its lack of sensitivity to venous return made it unviable in its present configuration. The study revealed a number of other important findings. Perhaps the most significant was that the reduced pulse experienced during constant flow support unbalanced the ratio of effective resistances of both vascular circuits. Even during steady rotary support therefore, the resulting ventricle volume imbalance increased the likelihood of suckdown. Additionally, mechanical damping of the passive controller’s response successfully filtered out pressure fluctuations from residual ventricular function. Finally, the importance of recognising inertial contributions to blood flow in the atria and ventricles in a numerical simulation were highlighted. This thesis documents the first attempt to create a fully auto regulated rotary cardiac assist device. Initial results encourage development of an inlet configuration sensitive to low flow such as collapsible inlet cannulae. Combining this with the existing baroreceptor-like response of the passive controller will render a highly stable passively controlled BiVAD configuration. The prototype controller’s passive interaction with the vasculature is a significant step towards a highly stable new generation of artificial heart.

Stability analysis and control of multiple converter based autonomous microgrid

In this paper, the stability of an autonomous microgrid with multiple distributed generators (DG) is studied through eigenvalue analysis. It is assumed that all the DGs are connected through Voltage Source Converter (VSC) and all connected loads are passive. The VSCs are controlled by state feedback controller to achieve desired voltage and current outputs that are decided by a droop controller. The state space models of each of the converters with its associated feedback are derived. These are then connected with the state space models of the droop, network and loads to form a homogeneous model, through which the eigenvalues are evaluated. The system stability is then investigated as a function of the droop controller real and reac-tive power coefficients. These observations are then verified through simulation studies using PSCAD/EMTDC. It will be shown that the simulation results closely agree with stability be-havior predicted by the eigenvalue analysis.