978 resultados para Minimum viable population
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Supported nanoparticles (NPs) of nonplasmonic transition metals (Pd, Pt, Rh, and Ir) are widely used as thermally activated catalysts for the synthesis of important organic compounds, but little is known about their photocatalytic capabilities. We discovered that irradiation with light can significantly enhance the intrinsic catalytic performance of these metal NPs at ambient temperatures for several types of reactions. These metal NPs strongly absorb the light mainly through interband electronic transitions. The excited electrons interact with the reactant molecules on the particles to accelerate these reactions. The rate of the catalyzed reaction depends on the concentration and energy of the excited electrons, which can be increased by increasing the light intensity or by reducing the irradiation wavelength. The metal NPs can also effectively couple thermal and light energy sources to more efficiently drive chemical transformations.
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BACKGROUND Many koala populations around Australia are in serious decline, with a substantial component of this decline in some Southeast Queensland populations attributed to the impact of Chlamydia. A Chlamydia vaccine for koalas is in development and has shown promise in early trials. This study contributes to implementation preparedness by simulating vaccination strategies designed to reverse population decline and by identifying which age and sex category it would be most effective to target. METHODS We used field data to inform the development and parameterisation of an individual-based stochastic simulation model of a koala population endemic with Chlamydia. The model took into account transmission, morbidity and mortality caused by Chlamydia infections. We calibrated the model to characteristics of typical Southeast Queensland koala populations. As there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the vaccine in real-world settings, a variety of potential vaccine efficacies, half-lives and dosing schedules were simulated. RESULTS Assuming other threats remain constant, it is expected that current population declines could be reversed in around 5-6 years if female koalas aged 1-2 years are targeted, average vaccine protective efficacy is 75%, and vaccine coverage is around 10% per year. At lower vaccine efficacies the immunological effects of boosting become important: at 45% vaccine efficacy population decline is predicted to reverse in 6 years under optimistic boosting assumptions but in 9 years under pessimistic boosting assumptions. Terminating a successful vaccination programme at 5 years would lead to a rise in Chlamydia prevalence towards pre-vaccination levels. CONCLUSION For a range of vaccine efficacy levels it is projected that population decline due to endemic Chlamydia can be reversed under realistic dosing schedules, potentially in just 5 years. However, a vaccination programme might need to continue indefinitely in order to maintain Chlamydia prevalence at a sufficiently low level for population growth to continue.
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We studied the community prevalence, patterns and predictors of hypertension in a large sub-population of South Asian adults with a view of identifying differential risk factors. Data were collected between years 2005-2006 and 5000 adults were invited for the study. The sample size was 4485, and about 39.5% were males. Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures were 127.1 ± 19.8 mmHg and 75.4 ± 11.3 mmHg, respectively. Age-adjusted prevalence in all adults, males and females was 23.7%, 23.4% and 23.8%, respectively. Urban adults had a significantly higher prevalence of hypertension than rural adults. In the binary logistic-regression analysis, male gender (OR: 1.2), increasing age, Sri Lankan Moor ethnicity (OR: 1.6), physical inactivity (OR: 1.7), presence of diabetes (OR: 2.2) and central obesity (OR: 2.3) all were significantly associated with hypertension. In conclusion, nearly one-third of the Sri Lankan adult population is hypertensive. Hence, public health initiatives should encourage healthier lifestyles with emphasis on preventing obesity and increasing physical activity.
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Elucidating the nature of genetic variation underlying both sexually selected traits and the fitness components of sexual selection is essential to understanding the broader consequences of sexual selection as an evolutionary process. To date, there have been relatively few attempts to connect the genetic variance in sexually selected traits with segregating DNA sequence polymorphisms. We set out to address this in a well-characterized sexual selection system - the cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) of Drosophila serrata - using an indirect association study design that allowed simultaneous estimation of the genetic variance in CHCs, sexual fitness and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) effects in an outbred population. We cloned and sequenced an ortholog of the D. melanogaster desaturase 2 gene, previously shown to affect CHC biosynthesis in D. melanogaster, and associated 36 SNPs with minor allele frequencies > 0.02 with variance in CHCs and sexual fitness. Three SNPs had significant multivariate associations with CHC phenotype (q-value < 0.05). At these loci, minor alleles had multivariate effects on CHCs that were weakly associated with the multivariate direction of sexual selection operating on these traits. Two of these SNPs had pleiotropic associations with male mating success, suggesting these variants may underlie responses to sexual selection due to this locus. There were 15 significant male mating success associations (q-value < 0.1), and interestingly, we detected a nonrandom pattern in the relationship between allele frequency and direction of effect on male mating success. The minor-frequency allele usually reduced male mating success, suggesting a positive association between male mating success and total fitness at this locus.
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Population size is crucial when estimating population-normalized drug consumption (PNDC) from wastewater-based drug epidemiology (WBDE). Three conceptually different population estimates can be used: de jure (common census, residence), de facto (all persons within a sewer catchment), and chemical loads (contributors to the sampled wastewater). De facto and chemical loads will be the same where all households contribute to a central sewer system without wastewater loss. This study explored the feasibility of determining a de facto population and its effect on estimating PNDC in an urban community over an extended period. Drugs and other chemicals were analyzed in 311 daily composite wastewater samples. The daily estimated de facto population (using chemical loads) was on average 32% higher than the de jure population. Consequently, using the latter would systemically overestimate PNDC by 22%. However, the relative day-to-day pattern of drug consumption was similar regardless of the type of normalization as daily illicit drug loads appeared to vary substantially more than the population. Using chemical loads population, we objectively quantified the total methodological uncertainty of PNDC and reduced it by a factor of 2. Our study illustrated the potential benefits of using chemical loads population for obtaining more robust PNDC data in WBDE.
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An important uncertainty when estimating per capita consumption of, for example, illicit drugs by means of wastewater analysis (sometimes referred to as “sewage epidemiology”) relates to the size and variability of the de facto population in the catchment of interest. In the absence of a day-specific direct population count any indirect surrogate model to estimate population size lacks a standard to assess associated uncertainties. Therefore, the objective of this study was to collect wastewater samples at a unique opportunity, that is, on a census day, as a basis for a model to estimate the number of people contributing to a given wastewater sample. Mass loads for a wide range of pharmaceuticals and personal care products were quantified in influents of ten sewage treatment plants (STP) serving populations ranging from approximately 3500 to 500 000 people. Separate linear models for population size were estimated with the mass loads of the different chemical as the explanatory variable: 14 chemicals showed good, linear relationships, with highest correlations for acesulfame and gabapentin. De facto population was then estimated through Bayesian inference, by updating the population size provided by STP staff (prior knowledge) with measured chemical mass loads. Cross validation showed that large populations can be estimated fairly accurately with a few chemical mass loads quantified from 24-h composite samples. In contrast, the prior knowledge for small population sizes cannot be improved substantially despite the information of multiple chemical mass loads. In the future, observations other than chemical mass loads may improve this deficit, since Bayesian inference allows including any kind of information relating to population size.
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How is creative expression and communication extended among whole populations? What is the social and cultural value of this activity? What roles do formal agencies, community-based organisations and content producer networks play? Specifically, how do participatory media and arts projects and networks contribute to building this capacity in the contemporary communications environment? The latest issue of CSJ article in a special issue on “Broadening Digital Storytelling Horizons” edited by Burcu Simsek.
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In Australia, the retirement village is regarded as a viable accommodation option for the fast-growing population of older people. Given that diverse stakeholders are involved in the village development process, a comprehensive stakeholder analysis, especially understanding stakeholders' concerns and expectations, is of critical importance to project success. This paper describes a stakeholder analysis based on a typical retirement village. The main methods utilized in this research were case study and an interdisciplinary workshop comprising intensive work sessions and cross-functional review. The participants of this 2014 Brisbane workshop included four village managers from an Australian retirement village developer and eight academics from diverse disciplines from a large university. Through this workshop, 24 village stakeholders and their specific concerns and expectations were identified. Results suggest that both concerns and expectations of these stakeholders are multidimensional and vary considerably, and the concerns and expectations of different stakeholders have complex relationships. Implications for a retirement village development are also proposed. The findings of the study serve as a valuable reference for developers' understanding of stakeholder concerns and expectations, and for taking corresponding actions in the final stages of the retirement village development.
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INTRODUCTION Although the high heritability of BMD variation has long been established, few genes have been conclusively shown to affect the variation of BMD in the general population. Extreme truncate selection has been proposed as a more powerful alternative to unselected cohort designs in quantitative trait association studies. We sought to test these theoretical predictions in studies of the bone densitometry measures BMD, BMC, and femoral neck area, by investigating their association with members of the Wnt pathway, some of which have previously been shown to be associated with BMD in much larger cohorts, in a moderate-sized extreme truncate selected cohort (absolute value BMD Z-scores = 1.5-4.0; n = 344). MATERIALS AND METHODS Ninety-six tag-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) lying in 13 Wnt signaling pathway genes were selected to tag common genetic variation (minor allele frequency [MAF] > 5% with an r(2) > 0.8) within 5 kb of all exons of 13 Wnt signaling pathway genes. The genes studied included LRP1, LRP5, LRP6, Wnt3a, Wnt7b, Wnt10b, SFRP1, SFRP2, DKK1, DKK2, FZD7, WISP3, and SOST. Three hundred forty-four cases with either high or low BMD were genotyped by Illumina Goldengate microarray SNP genotyping methods. Association was tested either by Cochrane-Armitage test for dichotomous variables or by linear regression for quantitative traits. RESULTS Strong association was shown with LRP5, polymorphisms of which have previously been shown to influence total hip BMD (minimum p = 0.0006). In addition, polymorphisms of the Wnt antagonist, SFRP1, were significantly associated with BMD and BMC (minimum p = 0.00042). Previously reported associations of LRP1, LRP6, and SOST with BMD were confirmed. Two other Wnt pathway genes, Wnt3a and DKK2, also showed nominal association with BMD. CONCLUSIONS This study shows that polymorphisms of multiple members of the Wnt pathway are associated with BMD variation. Furthermore, this study shows in a practical trial that study designs involving extreme truncate selection and moderate sample sizes can robustly identify genes of relevant effect sizes involved in BMD variation in the general population. This has implications for the design of future genome-wide studies of quantitative bone phenotypes relevant to osteoporosis.
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It is 2019, ten years after a plague turns most humans into vampires. Human blood is in short supply. The shortage of causing panic in vampire population Charles Bromley, CEO of pharmaceutic company Bromley Marks - the largest supplier of human blood in the United States- is intent on developing a viable blood substitute. When a cure that can transform vampires back into human...
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Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.
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Part I (Manjunath et al., 1994, Chem. Engng Sci. 49, 1451-1463) of this paper showed that the random particle numbers and size distributions in precipitation processes in very small drops obtained by stochastic simulation techniques deviate substantially from the predictions of conventional population balance. The foregoing problem is considered in this paper in terms of a mean field approximation obtained by applying a first-order closure to an unclosed set of mean field equations presented in Part I. The mean field approximation consists of two mutually coupled partial differential equations featuring (i) the probability distribution for residual supersaturation and (ii) the mean number density of particles for each size and supersaturation from which all average properties and fluctuations can be calculated. The mean field equations have been solved by finite difference methods for (i) crystallization and (ii) precipitation of a metal hydroxide both occurring in a single drop of specified initial supersaturation. The results for the average number of particles, average residual supersaturation, the average size distribution, and fluctuations about the average values have been compared with those obtained by stochastic simulation techniques and by population balance. This comparison shows that the mean field predictions are substantially superior to those of population balance as judged by the close proximity of results from the former to those from stochastic simulations. The agreement is excellent for broad initial supersaturations at short times but deteriorates progressively at larger times. For steep initial supersaturation distributions, predictions of the mean field theory are not satisfactory thus calling for higher-order approximations. The merit of the mean field approximation over stochastic simulation lies in its potential to reduce expensive computation times involved in simulation. More effective computational techniques could not only enhance this advantage of the mean field approximation but also make it possible to use higher-order approximations eliminating the constraints under which the stochastic dynamics of the process can be predicted accurately.
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Complex social factors and health issues challenge equitable health outcomes for many people, in particular those living in marginalised communities. Primary health care promises solutions through population health and health promotion approaches to improve social conditions (determinants) affecting health with emphasis on change at systems levels. Yet short-term efficiency focus policy decisions without long-term planning can undermine the effectiveness of primary health care. The workshop goal is to explore opportunities and share ideas about population health planning in Primary Health Networks and other community health care settings, so as to draw out opportunities, challenges and forward thinking health planning and health promotion strategies.
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The composition-controlled metal-insulator transition in the perovskite systems LaNi1-xMxO3 (M = Cr, Mn, Fe, and Co) has been investigated by transport measurements over the temperature range 12-300 K. These systems, which have critical electron densities (nc) in the range (1-2) -1020 electrons cm-3, exhibit sharp metal-insulator transitions at the base temperature. The corresponding minimum metallic conductivity (Ï-min), separating the localized and itinerant electronic regimes, is of the order of 102 ohm-1 cm-1. Particular attention is paid to the idea of Ï-min scaling with nc, and our present results are compared with earlier studies of the metal-insulator transition in low (e.g., Ge:Sb) and high (e.g., metal-ammonia, supercritical Hg) electron-density systems. A link is established between the transport and magnetic properties of the title systems at the metal-insulator transition.
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We propose a new model for estimating the size of a population from successive catches taken during a removal experiment. The data from these experiments often have excessive variation, known as overdispersion, as compared with that predicted by the multinomial model. The new model allows catchability to vary randomly among samplings, which accounts for overdispersion. When the catchability is assumed to have a beta distribution, the likelihood function, which is refered to as beta-multinomial, is derived, and hence the maximum likelihood estimates can be evaluated. Simulations show that in the presence of extravariation in the data, the confidence intervals have been substantially underestimated in previous models (Leslie-DeLury, Moran) and that the new model provides more reliable confidence intervals. The performance of these methods was also demonstrated using two real data sets: one with overdispersion, from smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and the other without overdispersion, from rat (Rattus rattus).