Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

The Marlborough mound, Wiltshire. A further Neolithic monumental mound by the River Kennet.

Recent radiocarbon dates obtained from two soil cores taken through the Marlborough Castle mound, Wiltshire, show the main body of it to be a contemporaneous monument to Silbury Hill, dating to the second half of the 3rd millennium cal bc. In light of these dates, this paper considers the sequence identified within the cores, which includes two possible flood events early in the construction of the mound. It also describes four cores taken through the surrounding ditch, as well as small-scale work to the north-east of the mound. The topographic location of the mound in a low-lying area and close to rivers and springs is discussed, and the potential for Late Neolithic sites nearby is set out, with the land to the south of the mound identified as an area for future research. The paper ends with the prospect that other apparent mottes in Wiltshire and beyond may well also have prehistoric origins

Applying Jackson’s methodological ideal-types: problems of differentiation and classification

In The Conduct of Inquiry in International Relations, Patrick Jackson situates methodologies in International Relations in relation to their underlying philosophical assumptions. One of his aims is to map International Relations debates in a way that ‘capture[s] current controversies’ (p. 40). This ambition is overstated: whilst Jackson’s typology is useful as a clarificatory tool, (re)classifying existing scholarship in International Relations is more problematic. One problem with Jackson’s approach is that he tends to run together the philosophical assumptions which decisively differentiate his methodologies (by stipulating a distinctive warrant for knowledge claims) and the explanatory strategies that are employed to generate such knowledge claims, suggesting that the latter are entailed by the former. In fact, the explanatory strategies which Jackson associates with each methodology reflect conventional practice in International Relations just as much as they reflect philosophical assumptions. This makes it more difficult to identify each methodology at work than Jackson implies. I illustrate this point through a critical analysis of Jackson’s controversial reclassification of Waltz as an analyticist, showing that whilst Jackson’s typology helps to expose inconsistencies in Waltz’s approach, it does not fully support the proposed reclassification. The conventional aspect of methodologies in International Relations also raises questions about the limits of Jackson’s ‘engaged pluralism’.

Our changing Sun

Stellar astronomy tells us much about the long-term evolution of our Sun while forensic evidence (for example, cosmic-ray products in ice cores) gives us indications of its fluctuations over the last millennium. However, such studies do not give us a sufficiently detailed understanding of solar change over the last century to allow us to detect and quantify any role that the Sun might have played in the observed rise in average surface temperatures on Earth. This paper describes recent research that has filled this gap by applying advances in our understanding of the effects and structure of the solar wind to historical data on the Earth's magnetic field.

Being and goodness

The old scholastic principle of the "convertibility" of being and goodness strikes nearly all moderns as either barely comprehensible or plain false. "Convertible" is a term of art meaning "interchangeable" in respect of predication, where the predicates can be exchanged salva veritate albeit not salva sensu: their referents are, as the maxim goes, really the same albeit conceptually different. The principle seems, at first blush, absurd. Did the scholastics literally mean that every being is good? Is that supposed to include a cancer, a malaria parasite, an earthquake that kills millions? If every being is good, then no being is bad—but how can that be? To the contemporary philosophical mind, such bafflement is understandable. It derives from the systematic dismantling of the great scholastic edifice that took place over half a millennium. With the loss of the basic concepts out of which that edifice was built, the space created by those concepts faded out of existence as well. The convertibility principle, like virtually all the other scholastic principles (not all, since some do survive and thrive in analytic philosophy), could not persist in a post-scholastic space wholly alien to it.

Microliths and maritime mobility: a continental European-style Late Mesolithic flint from the Isles of Scilly

Once Britain had become separated from the European mainland in the seventh millennium BC, Mesolithic stone tool traditions on opposite sides of the newly formed Channel embarked upon different directions of development. Patterns of cross-Channel contact have been difficult to decipher in this material, prior to the expansion of farming (and possibly farmers) from northern France at the beginning of the fourth millennium BC. Hence the discovery of Late Mesolithic microliths of apparently Belgian affinity at the western extremity of southern Britain in the Isles of Scilly comes as something of a surprise. The find is described here in detail, along with alternative scenarios that might explain it. The article is followed by a series of comments, with a closing reply from the authors.

Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

Agricultural innovations at a Late Iron Age oppidum: archaeobotanical evidence for flax, food and fodder from Calleva Atrebatum, UK

The development of oppida in the late first millennium BC across north-western Europe represents a major change in settlement form and social organisation. The construction of extensive earthwork systems, the presence of nucleated settlement areas, long-distance trade links and the development of hierarchical societies have been evidenced. These imply that changes in the style and organisation of agriculture would have been required to support these proto-urban population centres. Hypotheses of the subsistence bases of these settlements, ranging from a reliance on surplus arable production from local rural settlements, to an emphasis on pastoral activities, are here reviewed and grounded against a wider understanding of the expansion of agriculture in the Late Iron Age. These agricultural models have not been previously evaluated. This paper presents archaeobotanical data from six well fills from large-scale excavations at Late Iron Age and Early Roman Silchester, a Late Iron Age territorial oppidum and subsequent Roman civitas capital located in central-southern Britain. This is the first large-scale study of waterlogged plant macrofossils from within a settlement area of an oppidum. Waterlogged plant macrofossils were studied from a series of wells within the settlement. An assessment of taphonomy, considering stratigraphic and contextual information, is reported, followed by an analysis of the diverse assemblages of the plant remains through univariate analysis. Key results evidence animal stabling, flax cultivation, hay meadow management and the use of heathland resources. The staple crops cultivated and consumed at Late Iron Age and Early Roman Silchester are consistent with those cultivated in the wider region, whilst a range of imported fruits and flavourings were also present. The adoption of new oil crops and new grassland management shows that agricultural innovations were associated with foddering for animals rather than providing food for the proto-urban population. The evidence from Silchester is compared with other archaeobotanical datasets from oppida in Europe in order to identify key trends in agricultural change.

Morphological properties of superclusters of galaxies

We studied superclusters of galaxies in a volume-limited sample extracted from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 and from mock catalogues based on a semi-analytical model of galaxy evolution in the Millennium Simulation. A density field method was applied to a sample of galaxies brighter than M(r) = -21+5 log h(100) to identify superclusters, taking into account selection and boundary effects. In order to evaluate the influence of the threshold density, we have chosen two thresholds: the first maximizes the number of objects (D1) and the second constrains the maximum supercluster size to similar to 120 h(-1) Mpc (D2). We have performed a morphological analysis, using Minkowski Functionals, based on a parameter, which increases monotonically from filaments to pancakes. An anticorrelation was found between supercluster richness (and total luminosity or size) and the morphological parameter, indicating that filamentary structures tend to be richer, larger and more luminous than pancakes in both observed and mock catalogues. We have also used the mock samples to compare supercluster morphologies identified in position and velocity spaces, concluding that our morphological classification is not biased by the peculiar velocities. Monte Carlo simulations designed to investigate the reliability of our results with respect to random fluctuations show that these results are robust. Our analysis indicates that filaments and pancakes present different luminosity and size distributions.

Multicenter Analysis of Glucocerebrosidase Mutations in Parkinson`s Disease

Background Recent studies indicate an increased frequency of mutations in the gene encoding glucocerebrosidase (GBA), a deficiency of which causes Gaucher`s disease, among patients with Parkinson`s disease. We aimed to ascertain the frequency of GBA mutations in an ethnically diverse group of patients with Parkinson`s disease. Methods Sixteen centers participated in our international, collaborative study: five from the Americas, six from Europe, two from Israel, and three from Asia. Each center genotyped a standard DNA panel to permit comparison of the genotyping results across centers. Genotypes and phenotypic data from a total of 5691 patients with Parkinson`s disease (780 Ashkenazi Jews) and 4898 controls (387 Ashkenazi Jews) were analyzed, with multivariate logistic-regression models and the Mantel-Haenszel procedure used to estimate odds ratios across centers. Results All 16 centers could detect two GBA mutations, L444P and N370S. Among Ashkenazi Jewish subjects, either mutation was found in 15% of patients and 3% of controls, and among non-Ashkenazi Jewish subjects, either mutation was found in 3% of patients and less than 1% of controls. GBA was fully sequenced for 1883 non-Ashkenazi Jewish patients, and mutations were identified in 7%, showing that limited mutation screening can miss half the mutant alleles. The odds ratio for any GBA mutation in patients versus controls was 5.43 across centers. As compared with patients who did not carry a GBA mutation, those with a GBA mutation presented earlier with the disease, were more likely to have affected relatives, and were more likely to have atypical clinical manifestations. Conclusions Data collected from 16 centers demonstrate that there is a strong association between GBA mutations and Parkinson`s disease.

Structural and Biochemical Characterization of Peroxiredoxin Q beta from Xylella fastidiosa CATALYTIC MECHANISM AND HIGH REACTIVITY

The phytopathogenic bacterium Xylella fastidiosa is the etiological agent of various plant diseases. To survive under oxidative stress imposed by the host, microorganisms express antioxidant proteins, including cysteine-based peroxidases named peroxiredoxins. This work is a comprehensive analysis of the catalysis performed by PrxQ from X. fastidiosa (XfPrxQ) that belongs to a peroxiredoxin class still poorly characterized and previously considered as moderately reactive toward hydroperoxides. Contrary to these assumptions, our competitive kinetics studies have shown that the second-order rate constants of the peroxidase reactions of XfPrxQ with hydrogen peroxide and peroxynitrite are in the order of 107 and 106 M(-1) s(-1), respectively, which are as fast as the most efficient peroxidases. The XfPrxQ disulfides were only slightly reducible by dithiothreitol; therefore, the identification of a thioredoxin system as the probable biological reductant of XfPrxQ was a relevant finding. We also showed by site-specific mutagenesis and mass spectrometry that an intramolecular disulfide bond between Cys-47 and Cys-83 is generated during the catalytic cycle. Furthermore, we elucidated the crystal structure of XfPrxQ C47S in which Ser-47 and Cys-83 lie similar to 12.3 angstrom apart. Therefore, significant conformational changes are required for disulfide bond formation. In fact, circular dichroism data indicated that there was a significant redox-dependent unfolding of alpha-helices, which is probably triggered by the peroxidatic cysteine oxidation. Finally, we proposed a model that takes data from this work as well data as from the literature into account.

Bj-PRO-5a, a natural angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor, promotes vasodilatation mediated by both bradykinin B(2) and M1 muscarinic acetylcholine receptors

Bradykinin-potentiating peptides (BPPs) or proline-rich oligopeptides (PROs) isolated from the venom glands of Bothrops jararaca (Bj) were the first natural inhibitors of the angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) described. Bj-PRO-5a (< EKWAP), a member of this structurally related peptide family, was essential for the development of captopril, the first site-directed ACE inhibitor used for the treatment of human hypertension. Nowadays, more Bj-PROs have been identified with higher ACE inhibition potency compared to Bj-PRO-5a. However, despite its modest inhibitory effect of ACE inhibition, Bj-PRO-5a reveals strong bradykinin-potentiating activity, suggesting the participation of other mechanisms for this peptide. In the present study, we have shown that Bj-PRO-5a induced nitric oxide (NO) production depended on muscarinic acetylcholine receptor M1 subtype (mAchR-M1) and bradykinin B(2) receptor activation, as measured by a chemiluminescence assay using a NO analyzer. Intravital microscopy based on transillumination of mice cremaster muscle also showed that both bradykinin B(2) receptor and mAchR-M1 contributed to the vasodilatation induced by Bj-PRO-5a. Moreover, Bj-PRO-5a-mediated vasodilatation was completely blocked in the presence of a NO synthase inhibitor. The importance of this work lies in the definition of novel targets for Bj-PRO-5a in addition to ACE, the structural model for captopril development. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New malaria vaccine candidates based on the Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein-1 and the TLR-5 agonist Salmonella Typhimurium FliC flagellin

The present study evaluated the immunogenicity of new malaria vaccine formulations based on the 19 kDa C-terminal fragment of Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein-1 (MSP1(19)) and the Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium flagellin (FIiC), a Toll-like receptor 5 (TLR5) agonist. FHC was used as an adjuvant either admixed or genetically linked to the P. vivax MSP1(19) and administered to C57BL/6 mice via parenteral (s.c.) or mucosal (i.n.) routes. The recombinant fusion protein preserved MSP1(19) epitopes recognized by Sera collected from P. vivax infected humans and TLR5 agonist activity. Mice parenterally immunized with recombinant P vivax MSPI 19 in the presence of FliC, either admixed or genetically linked, elicited strong and long-lasting MSP1 (19)-specific systemic antibody responses with a prevailing IgG1 subclass response. Incorporation of another TLR agonist, CpG ODN 1826, resulted in a more balanced response, as evaluated by the IgG1/IgG2c ratio, and higher cell-mediated immune response measured by interferon-gamma secretion. Finally, we show that MSPI 19-specific antibodies recognized the native protein expressed on the surface of P. vivax parasites harvested from infected humans. The present report proposes a new class of malaria vaccine formulation based on the use of malaria antigens and the innate immunity agonist FliC. it contains intrinsic adjuvant properties and enhanced ability to induce specific humoral and cellular immune responses when administered alone or in combination with other adjuvants. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.