Predictability in Social Science, The statistical mechanics approach.

The subject of this work concerns the study of the immigration phenomenon, with emphasis on the aspects related to the integration of an immigrant population in a hosting one. Aim of this work is to show the forecasting ability of a recent finding where the behavior of integration quantifiers was analyzed and investigated with a mathematical model of statistical physics origins (a generalization of the monomer dimer model). After providing a detailed literature review of the model, we show that not only such a model is able to identify the social mechanism that drives a particular integration process, but it also provides correct forecast. The research reported here proves that the proposed model of integration and its forecast framework are simple and effective tools to reduce uncertainties about how integration phenomena emerge and how they are likely to develop in response to increased migration levels in the future.

Limiting theorems in statistical mechanics. The mean-field case.

The Curie-Weiss model is defined by ah Hamiltonian according to spins interact. For some particular values of the parameters, the sum of the spins normalized with square-root normalization converges or not toward Gaussian distribution. In the thesis we investigate some correlations between the behaviour of the sum and the central limit for interacting random variables.

Statistical mechanics of polymer models: rigorous results and applications

Monomer-dimer models are amongst the models in statistical mechanics which found application in many areas of science, ranging from biology to social sciences. This model describes a many-body system in which monoatomic and diatomic particles subject to hard-core interactions get deposited on a graph. In our work we provide an extension of this model to higher-order particles. The aim of our work is threefold: first we study the thermodynamic properties of the newly introduced model. We solve analytically some regular cases and find that, differently from the original, our extension admits phase transitions. Then we tackle the inverse problem, both from an analytical and numerical perspective. Finally we propose an application to aggregation phenomena in virtual messaging services.

Prediction of hip and hand fractures in older persons with or without a diagnosis of periodontitis

Purpose: In a prospective study, we assessed if a diagnosis of osteoporosis and periodontitis could predict hip and hand fractures in older persons. Materials and methods: Bone density was assessed by a Densitometer. Periodontitis was defined by evidence of alveolar bone loss. Results: 788 Caucasians (52.4% women, overall mean age: 76 years, S.D. +/- 9.0, range: 62 to 96) were enrolled and 7.4% had a hip/hand fracture in 3 years. Calcaneus PIXI T-values < - 1.6 identified osteoporosis in 28.2% of the older persons predicting a hip/hand fracture with an odds ratio of 3.3:1 (95% CI: 1.9, 5.7, p < 0.001). Older persons with osteoporosis had more severe periodontitis (p < 0.01). Periodontitis defined by >= 30% of sites with >= 5 mm distance between the cemento-enamel junction (CEJ) and bone level (ABL) was found in 18.7% of the older persons predicting a hip/hand fracture with an odds ratio of 1.8:1 (95% CI: 1.0, 3.3, p < 0.05). Adjusted for age, the odds ratio of a hip/hand fracture in older persons with osteoporosis (PIXI T-value <-2.5) and periodontitis was 12.2:1 (95% CI: 3.5, 42.3, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Older persons with osteoporosis and periodontitis have an increased risk for hip/hand fractures

Cognition and driving in older persons

In Switzerland, approximately 350,000 people aged 70 years or older own a valid driving license. By law, these drivers are medically assessed every other year, most commonly by their general practitioner, to exclude that a medical condition is interfering with their driving skills. A prerequisite for driving is the integration of high-level cognitive functions with perception and motor function. Ageing, per se, does not necessarily impair driving or increase the crash risk. However, medical conditions, such as cognitive impairment and dementia, become more prevalent with advancing age and may contribute to poor driving and an increased crash risk. The extent to which driving skills are impaired depends on the cause of dementia, disease severity, other co-morbidities and individual compensation strategies. Dementia often remains undiagnosed and therefore general practitioners (GPs) can find themselves in the difficult situation to disclose a suspicion about cognitive impairment and queries about medical fitness to drive, at the same time. In addition, the literature suggests that cognitive screening tests, most commonly used by GPs, have a limited role in judging whether an older person remains fit to drive. Further specialist assessment, for example in a memory clinic or on the road testing (ORT), may be helpful when the diagnosis or its implication for driving remain unclear. Here, we review the literature about cognition and driving, for GPs who advise older drivers who wish to continue driving.

Frequency and determinants of unprotected sex among HIV-infected persons: the Swiss HIV cohort study

Access to antiretroviral therapy may have changed condom use behavior. In January 2008, recommendations on condom use for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive persons were published in Switzerland, which allowed for unprotected sex under well-defined circumstances ("Swiss statement"). We studied the frequency, changes over time, and determinants of unprotected sex among HIV-positive persons.

Incidence and risk factors for chronic elevation of alanine aminotransferase levels in HIV-infected persons without hepatitis b or c virus co-infection

Chronic liver disease in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients is mostly caused by hepatitis virus co-infection. Other reasons for chronic alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevation are more difficult to diagnose.

Structure and thermodynamics of H3O+(H2O)8 clusters: A combined molecular dynamics and quantum mechanics approach

We have studied the structure and stability of (H3O+)(H2O)8 clusters using a combination of molecular dynamics sampling and high-level ab initio calculations. 20 distinct oxygen frameworks are found within 2 kcal/mol of the electronic or standard Gibbs free energy minimum. The impact of quantum zero-point vibrational corrections on the relative stability of these isomers is quite significant. The box-like isomers are favored in terms of electronic energy, but with the inclusion of zero-point vibrational corrections and entropic effects tree-like isomers are favored at higher temperatures. Under conditions from 0 to 298.15 K, the global minimum is predicted to be a tree-like structure with one dangling singly coordinated water molecule. Above 298.15 K, higher entropy tree-like isomers with two or more singly coordinated water molecules are favored. These assignments are generally consistent with experimental IR spectra of (H3O+)(H2O)8 obtained at 150 K.