972 resultados para Maximum entropy statistical estimate
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A mathematical model was developed to estimate HIV incidence in NSW prisons. Data included: duration of imprisonment; number of inmates using each needle; lower and higher number of shared injections per IDU per week; proportion of IDUs using bleach; efficacy of bleach; HIV prevalence and probability of infection. HIV prevalence in IDUs in prison was estimated to have risen from 0.8 to 5.7% (12.2%) over 180 weeks when using lower (and higher) values for frequency of shared injections. The estimated minimum (and maximum) number of IDU inmates infected with HIV in NSW prisons was 38 (and 152) in 1993 according to the model. These figures require confirmation by seroincidence studies. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Objectives-To estimate the relative risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) associated with exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). Design-Population-based case-control study. Subjects-Cases were 953 people identified in a population register of coronary events, and controls were 3189 participants in independent community-based risk factor prevalence surveys from the same study populations. Setting-Newcastle, Australia and Auckland, New Zealand. Main outcome measures-Acute myocardial infarction or coronary death. Results-After adjusting for the effects of age, education, history of heart disease, and body mass index, women had a statistically significant increased risk of a coronary event associated with exposure to ETS (relative risk (RR) = 1.99; 95% confidence interval (CI)= 1.40-2.81). There was little statistical evidence of increased risk found in men (RR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.81-1.28). Conclusion-Our study found evidence for the adverse effects of exposure to ETS on risk of coronary heart disease among women, especially at home. For men the issue is unclear according to the data from our study. Additional studies with detailed information on possible confounders and adequate statistical power are needed. Most importantly, they should use methods for measuring exposure to ETS that are sufficiently accurate to permit the investigation of dose-response relationships.
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Objective: From Census data, to document the distribution of general practitioners in Australia and to estimate the number of general practitioners needed to achieve an equitable distribution accounting for community health need. Methods: Data on location of general practitioners, population size and crude mortality by statistical division (SD) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The number of patients per general practitioner by SD was calculated and plotted. Using crude mortality to estimate community health need, a ratio of the number of general practitioners per person:mortality was calculated for all Australia and for each SD (the Robin Hood Index). From this, the number of general practitioners needed to achieve equity was calculated. Results: In all, 26,290 general practitioners were identified in 57 SDs. The mean number of people per general practitioner is 707, ranging from 551 to 1887. Capital city SDs have most favourable ratios. The Robin Hood Index for Australia is 1, and ranges from 0.32 (relatively under-served) to 2.46 (relatively over-served). Twelve SDs (21%) including all capital cities and 65% of all Australians, have a Robin Hood Index > 1. To achieve equity per capita 2489 more general practitioners (10% of the current workforce) are needed. To achieve equity by the Robin Hood Index 3351 (13% of the current workforce) are needed. Conclusions: The distribution of general practitioners in Australia is skewed. Nonmetropolitan areas are relatively underserved. Census data and the Robin Hood Index could provide a simple means of identifying areas of need in Australia.
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Hemichordates were traditionally allied to the chordates, but recent molecular analyses have suggested that hemichordates are a sister group to the echinoderms, a relationship that has important consequences for the interpretation of the evolution of deuterostome body plans. However, the molecular phylogenetic analyses to date have not provided robust support for the hemichordate + echinoderm clade. We use a maximum likelihood framework, including the parametric bootstrap, to reanalyze DNA data from complete mitochondrial genomes and nuclear 18S rRNA. This approach provides the first statistically significant support for the hemichordate + echinoderm clade from molecular data. This grouping implies that the ancestral deuterostome had features that included an adult with a pharynx and a dorsal nerve cord and an indirectly developing dipleurula-like larva.
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We construct, for all positive integers u, and v with u less than or equal to v, a decomposition of K-v - K-u (the complete graph on v vertices with a. hole of size u) into the maximum possible number of edge disjoint triangles.
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Objective: To measure prevalence and model incidence of HIV infection. Setting: 2013 consecutive pregnant women attending public sector antenatal clinics in 1997 in Hlabisa health district, South Africa. Historical seroprevalence data, 1992-1995. Methods: Serum remaining from syphilis testing was tested anonymously for antibodies to HIV to determine seroprevalence. Two models, allowing for differential mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people, were used. The first used serial seroprevalence data to estimate trends in annual incidence. The second, a maximum likelihood model, took account of changing force of infection and age-dependent risk of infection, to estimate age-specific HIV incidence in 1997. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios (OR) for risk factors for prevalent HIV infection. Results: Estimated annual HIV incidence increased from 4% in 1992/1993 to 10% in 1996/1997. In 1997, highest age-specific incidence was 16% among women aged between 20 and 24 years. in 1997, overall prevalence was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-28%) and at 34% was highest among women aged between 20 and 24 years. Young age (<30 years; odds ratio [OR], 2.1; p = .001), unmarried status (OR 2.2; p = .001) and living in less remote parts of the district (OR 1.5; p = .002) were associated with HIV prevalence in univariate analysis. Associations were less strong in multivariate analysis. Partner's migration status was not associated with HIV infection. Substantial heterogeneity of HIV prevalence by clinic was observed (range 17%-31%; test for trend, p = .001). Conclusions: This community is experiencing an explosive HIV epidemic. Young, single women in the more developed parts of the district would form an appropriate cohort to test, and benefit from, interventions such as vaginal microbicides and HIV vaccines.
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OBJECTIVE: To describe variation in all cause and selected cause-specific mortality rates across Australia. METHODS: Mortality and population data for 1997 were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. All cause and selected cause-specific mortality rates were calculated and directly standardised to the 1997 Australian population in 5-year age groups. Selected major causes of death included cancer, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, accidents and suicide. Rates are reported by statistical division, and State and Territory. RESULTS: All cause age-standardised mortality was 6.98 per 1000 in 1997 and this varied 2-fold from a low in the statistical division of Pilbara, Western Australia (5.78, 95% confidence interval 5.06-6.56), to a high in Northern Territory-excluding Darwin (11.30, 10.67-11.98). Similar mortality variation (all p<0.0001) exists for cancer (1.01-2.23 per 1000) and coronary artery disease (0.99-2.23 per 1000), the two biggest killers. Larger variation (all p<0.0001) exists for cerebrovascular disease (0.7-11.8 per 10,000), diabetes (0.7-6.9 per 10,000), accidents (1.7-7.2 per 10,000) and suicide (0.6-3.8 per 10,000). Less marked variation was observed when analysed by State and Territory. but Northern Territory consistently has the highest age-standardised mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Analysed by statistical division, substantial mortality gradients exist across Australia, suggesting an inequitable distribution of the determinants of health. Further research is required to better understand this heterogeneity.
Improving maximum walking distance in early peripheral arterial disease: Randomised controlled trial
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The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of increased physical activity and cessation of smoking on the natural history of early peripheral arterial disease, We conducted a randomised controlled trial in Perth, Western Australia, involving 882 men with early peripheral arterial disease identified via population-based screening using the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire and the ankle:brachial index. Members of the control group (n = 441) received usual care from their general practitioner while members of the intervention group (n = 441) were allocated to a stop smoking and keep walking regime - a combined community-based intervention of cessation of smoking (where applicable) and increased physical activity. Postal follow-up occurred at two and 12 months post-entry into the trial. The main outcome of interest was maximum walking distance. There were no statistically significant differences in the characteristics of the intervention and usual care groups at recruitment. Follow-up information at two and 12 months was available for 85% and 84% of participants, respectively. At 12 months, more men allocated to the intervention group had improved their maximum walking distance (23% vs 15%; chi(2) = 9.74, df = 2, p = 0.008). In addition, more men in the intervention group reported walking more than three times per week for recreation (34% vs 25%, p = 0.01). Although not statistically significant, more men in the intervention group who were smokers when enrolled in the trial had stopped smoking (12% vs 8%, p = 0.43). It is concluded that referral of older patients with intermittent claudication to established physiotherapy programs in the community can increase levels of physical activity and reduce disability related to peripheral arterial disease. A combination of simple and safe interventions that are readily available in the community through physiotherapists and general practitioners has the potential to improve early peripheral arterial disease.
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Functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) analysis methods can be quite generally divided into hypothesis-driven and data-driven approaches. The former are utilised in the majority of FMRI studies, where a specific haemodynamic response is modelled utilising knowledge of event timing during the scan, and is tested against the data using a t test or a correlation analysis. These approaches often lack the flexibility to account for variability in haemodynamic response across subjects and brain regions which is of specific interest in high-temporal resolution event-related studies. Current data-driven approaches attempt to identify components of interest in the data, but currently do not utilise any physiological information for the discrimination of these components. Here we present a hypothesis-driven approach that is an extension of Friman's maximum correlation modelling method (Neurolmage 16, 454-464, 2002) specifically focused on discriminating the temporal characteristics of event-related haemodynamic activity. Test analyses, on both simulated and real event-related FMRI data, will be presented.
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This article deals with the efficiency of fractional integration parameter estimators. This study was based on Monte Carlo experiments involving simulated stochastic processes with integration orders in the range]-1,1[. The evaluated estimation methods were classified into two groups: heuristics and semiparametric/maximum likelihood (ML). The study revealed that the comparative efficiency of the estimators, measured by the lesser mean squared error, depends on the stationary/non-stationary and persistency/anti-persistency conditions of the series. The ML estimator was shown to be superior for stationary persistent processes; the wavelet spectrum-based estimators were better for non-stationary mean reversible and invertible anti-persistent processes; the weighted periodogram-based estimator was shown to be superior for non-invertible anti-persistent processes.
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Quantifying mass and energy exchanges within tropical forests is essential for understanding their role in the global carbon budget and how they will respond to perturbations in climate. This study reviews ecosystem process models designed to predict the growth and productivity of temperate and tropical forest ecosystems. Temperate forest models were included because of the minimal number of tropical forest models. The review provides a multiscale assessment enabling potential users to select a model suited to the scale and type of information they require in tropical forests. Process models are reviewed in relation to their input and output parameters, minimum spatial and temporal units of operation, maximum spatial extent and time period of application for each organization level of modelling. Organizational levels included leaf-tree, plot-stand, regional and ecosystem levels, with model complexity decreasing as the time-step and spatial extent of model operation increases. All ecosystem models are simplified versions of reality and are typically aspatial. Remotely sensed data sets and derived products may be used to initialize, drive and validate ecosystem process models. At the simplest level, remotely sensed data are used to delimit location, extent and changes over time of vegetation communities. At a more advanced level, remotely sensed data products have been used to estimate key structural and biophysical properties associated with ecosystem processes in tropical and temperate forests. Combining ecological models and image data enables the development of carbon accounting systems that will contribute to understanding greenhouse gas budgets at biome and global scales.
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Recombinant protein production in bacteria is efficient except that insoluble inclusion bodies form when some gene sequences are expressed. Such proteins must undergo renaturation, which is an inefficient process due to protein aggregation on dilution from concentrated denaturant. In this study, the protein-protein interactions of eight distinct inclusion-body proteins are quantified, in different solution conditions, by measurement of protein second virial coefficients (SVCs). Protein solubility is shown to decrease as the SVC is reduced (i.e., as protein interactions become more attractive). Plots of SVC versus denaturant concentration demonstrate two clear groupings of proteins: a more aggregative group and a group having higher SVC and better solubility. A correlation of the measured SVC with protein molecular weight and hydropathicity, that is able to predict which group each of the eight proteins falls into, is presented. The inclusion of additives known to inhibit aggregation during renaturation improves solubility and increases the SVC of both protein groups. Furthermore, an estimate of maximum refolding yield (or solubility) using high-performance liquid chromatography was obtained for each protein tested, under different environmental conditions, enabling a relationship between yield and SVC to be demonstrated. Combined, the results enable an approximate estimation of the maximum refolding yield that is attainable for each of the eight proteins examined, under a selected chemical environment. Although the correlations must be tested with a far larger set of protein sequences, this work represents a significant move beyond empirical approaches for optimizing renaturation conditions. The approach moves toward the ideal of predicting maximum refolding yield using simple bioinformatic metrics that can be estimated from the gene sequence. Such a capability could potentially screen, in silico, those sequences suitable for expression in bacteria from those that must be expressed in more complex hosts. (C) 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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The objective of this study was to show the association patterns among seven types of dental anomalies (second pre-molar agenesis, upper side incisive reduced in size, lower first molar infra-ochlesis, enamel hypoplasia, first molar ectopic eruption, supra numerous teeth and upper canine ectopic eruption) in a population sample without dental treatment ranging in age from 7 to 14. A total of 172 patients were attended and underwent the clinical examination at the Clinica Infantil da Fundacao Educacional de Barretos. Eleven patients from this total were selected according to a first dental anomaly diagnosis and submitted to panoramic radiography. A significant association (p < 0.05) was detected among six pairs of anomalies (second pre-molar agenesis x first pre-molar ectopic eruption; second pre-molar agenesis x lower first molar infra-ochlesis; second pre-molar agenesis x upper side incisive reduced in size; supra numerous teeth x reduced size upper side incisive; first pre-molar ectopic eruption x enamel hypoplasia; lower first molar infra-ochlesis x upper side incisive reduced in size) suggesting a common genetic origin for these conditions. The association was not significant in only one case where there was anomaly sharing by the patients. The existence of an anomaly is clinically relevant for early diagnosis of a possible association and an anomaly can indicate an increased risk of other anomalies.
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A mutant version of the N-terminal domain of Escherichia coli DnaB helicase was used as a model system to assess the stabilization against unfolding gained by covalent cyclization. Cyclization was achieved in vivo by formation of an amide bond between the N and C termini with the help of a split mini-intein. Linear and circular proteins were constructed to be identical in amino acid sequence. Mutagenesis of Phe102 to Glu rendered the protein monomeric even at high concentration. A difference in free energy of unfolding, DeltaDeltaG, between circular and linear protein of 2.3(+/-0.5) kcal mol(-1) was measured at 10degreesC by circular dichroism. A theoretical estimate of the difference in conformational entropy of linear and circular random chains in a three-dimensional cubic lattice model predicted DeltaDeltaG = 2.3 kcal mol(-1), suggesting that stabilization by protein cyclization is driven by the reduced conformational entropy of the unfolded state. Amide-proton exchange rates measured by NMR spectroscopy and mass spectrometry showed a uniform, approximately tenfold decrease of the exchange rates of the most slowly exchanging amide protons, demonstrating that cyclization globally decreases the unfolding rate of the protein. The amide proton exchange was found to follow EX1 kinetics at near-neutral pH, in agreement with an unusually slow refolding I measured by stopped-flow circular dichroism. rate of less than 4 min(-1) The linear and circular proteins differed more in their unfolding than in their folding rates. Global unfolding of the N-terminal domain of E. coli DnaB is thus promoted strongly by spatial separation of the N and C termini, whereas their proximity is much less important for folding. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.