5-year Chlamydia vaccination programme could reverse disease-related koala population decline: Predictions from a mathematical model using field data

BACKGROUND Many koala populations around Australia are in serious decline, with a substantial component of this decline in some Southeast Queensland populations attributed to the impact of Chlamydia. A Chlamydia vaccine for koalas is in development and has shown promise in early trials. This study contributes to implementation preparedness by simulating vaccination strategies designed to reverse population decline and by identifying which age and sex category it would be most effective to target. METHODS We used field data to inform the development and parameterisation of an individual-based stochastic simulation model of a koala population endemic with Chlamydia. The model took into account transmission, morbidity and mortality caused by Chlamydia infections. We calibrated the model to characteristics of typical Southeast Queensland koala populations. As there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the vaccine in real-world settings, a variety of potential vaccine efficacies, half-lives and dosing schedules were simulated. RESULTS Assuming other threats remain constant, it is expected that current population declines could be reversed in around 5-6 years if female koalas aged 1-2 years are targeted, average vaccine protective efficacy is 75%, and vaccine coverage is around 10% per year. At lower vaccine efficacies the immunological effects of boosting become important: at 45% vaccine efficacy population decline is predicted to reverse in 6 years under optimistic boosting assumptions but in 9 years under pessimistic boosting assumptions. Terminating a successful vaccination programme at 5 years would lead to a rise in Chlamydia prevalence towards pre-vaccination levels. CONCLUSION For a range of vaccine efficacy levels it is projected that population decline due to endemic Chlamydia can be reversed under realistic dosing schedules, potentially in just 5 years. However, a vaccination programme might need to continue indefinitely in order to maintain Chlamydia prevalence at a sufficiently low level for population growth to continue.

Moving on (part 1): The physics of power and curriculum history

This is the first of two papers that map (dis)continuities in notions of power from Aristotle to Newton to Foucault. They trace the ways in which bio-physical conceptions of power became paraphrased in social science and deployed in educational discourse on the child and curriculum from post-Newtonian times to the present. The analyses suggest that, amid ruptures in the definition, role, location and meaning given 'power' historically in various 'physical' and 'social' cosmologies, the naming of 'power' has been dependent on 'physics', on the theorization of motion across 'Western' sciences. This first paper examines some (dis)continuities in regard to histories of motion and power from Aristotelian 'natural science' to Newtonian mechanics.

The physics of ENSO-monsoon connection

The physical mechanism through which Ei-Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to produce deficient precipitation over Indian continent is investigated using both observations as well as a general circulation model. Both analysis of observations and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) study show that the planetary scale response associated with ENSO primarily influences the equatorial Indian Ocean region. Through this interaction it tends to favour the equatorial heat source, enhance precipitation over the equatorial Indian Ocean and indirectly cause a decrease in continental precipitation through induced subsidence. This situation is further complicated by the fact the regional tropospheric quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) has a bimodal structure over this region with large amplitude over the Indian continent. While the ENSO response has a quasi-four year periodicity and tends peak during beginning of the calendar year, the QBO mode tends to peak during northern summer. Thus, the QBO mode exerts a stronger influence on the interannual variability of the monsoon. The strength of the Indian monsoon in a given year depends on the combined effect of the ENSO and the QBO mode. Sines the two oscillations have disparate time scales, exact phase information of the two modes during northern summer is important in determining the Indian summer monsoon. The physical mechanism of the interannual variations of the Indian monsoon precipitation associated with ENSO presented here is similar to the physical process that cause intraseasonal 'active', 'break' oscillations of the monsoon.

Quasi-static and dynamic strain sensing using carbon nanotube/epoxy nanocomposite thin films

Thin films are developed by dispersing carbon black nanoparticles and carbon nanotubes (CNTs) in an epoxy polymer. The films show a large variation in electrical resistance when subjected to quasi-static and dynamic mechanical loading. This phenomenon is attributed to the change in the band-gap of the CNTs due to the applied strain, and also to the change in the volume fraction of the constituent phases in the percolation network. Under quasi-static loading, the films show a nonlinear response. This nonlinearity in the response of the films is primarily attributed to the pre-yield softening of the epoxy polymer. The electrical resistance of the films is found to be strongly dependent on the magnitude and frequency of the applied dynamic strain, induced by a piezoelectric substrate. Interestingly, the resistance variation is found to be a linear function of frequency and dynamic strain. Samples with a small concentration of just 0.57% of CNT show a sensitivity as high as 2.5% MPa-1 for static mechanical loading. A mathematical model based on Bruggeman's effective medium theory is developed to better understand the experimental results. Dynamic mechanical loading experiments reveal a sensitivity as high as 0.007% Hz(-1) at a constant small-amplitude vibration and up to 0.13%/mu-strain at 0-500 Hz vibration. Potential applications of such thin films include highly sensitive strain sensors, accelerometers, artificial neural networks, artificial skin and polymer electronics.

Physics beyond Standard Model: Working group 3 report

This is a summary of the beyond the Standard Model (including model building working group of the WHEPP-X workshop held at Chennai from January 3 to 15, 2008.

Oxygen transport in a three-dimensional microvascular network incorporated with early tumour growth and preexisting vessel cooption: Numerical simulation study

We propose a dynamic mathematical model of tissue oxygen transport by a preexisting three-dimensional microvascular network which provides nutrients for an in situ cancer at the very early stage of primary microtumour growth. The expanding tumour consumes oxygen during its invasion to the surrounding tissues and cooption of host vessels. The preexisting vessel cooption, remodelling and collapse are modelled by the changes of haemodynamic conditions due to the growing tumour. A detailed computational model of oxygen transport in tumour tissue is developed by considering (a) the time-varying oxygen advection diffusion equation within the microvessel segments, (b) the oxygen flux across the vessel walls, and (c) the oxygen diffusion and consumption with in the tumour and surrounding healthy tissue. The results show the oxygen concentration distribution at different time points of early tumour growth. In addition, the influence of preexisting vessel density on the oxygen transport has been discussed. The proposed model not only provides a quantitative approach for investigating the interactions between tumour growth and oxygen delivery, but also is extendable to model other molecules or chemotherapeutic drug transport in the future study.

3D numerical simulation of avascular tumour growth: effect of hypoxic micro-environment in host tissue

A three-dimensional (3D) mathematical model of tumour growth at the avascular phase and vessel remodelling in host tissues is proposed with emphasis on the study of the interactions of tumour growth and hypoxic micro-environment in host tissues. The hybrid based model includes the continuum part, such as the distributions of oxygen and vascular endothelial growth factors (VEGFs), and the discrete part of tumour cells (TCs) and blood vessel networks. The simulation shows the dynamic process of avascular tumour growth from a few initial cells to an equilibrium state with varied vessel networks. After a phase of rapidly increasing numbers of the TCs, more and more host vessels collapse due to the stress caused by the growing tumour. In addition, the consumption of oxygen expands with the enlarged tumour region. The study also discusses the effects of certain factors on tumour growth, including the density and configuration of preexisting vessel networks and the blood oxygen content. The model enables us to examine the relationship between early tumour growth and hypoxic micro-environment in host tissues, which can be useful for further applications, such as tumour metastasis and the initialization of tumour angiogenesis.

Nonlinear mechanical property of tracheal cartilage: A theoretical and experimental study

Background: Despite being the stiffest airway of the bronchial tree, the trachea undergoes significant deformation due to intrathoracic pressure during breathing. The mechanical properties of the trachea affect the flow in the airway and may contribute to the biological function of the lung. Method: A Fung-type strain energy density function was used to investigate the nonlinear mechanical behavior of tracheal cartilage. A bending test on pig tracheal cartilage was performed and a mathematical model for analyzing the deformation of tracheal cartilage was developed. The constants included in the strain energy density function were determined by fitting the experimental data. Result: The experimental data show that tracheal cartilage is a nonlinear material displaying higher strength in compression than in tension. When the compression forces varied from -0.02 to -0.03 N and from -0.03 to -0.04 N, the deformation ratios were 11.03±2.18% and 7.27±1.59%, respectively. Both were much smaller than the deformation ratios (20.01±4.49%) under tension forces of 0.02 to 0.01 N. The Fung-type strain energy density function can capture this nonlinear behavior very well, whilst the linear stress-strain relation cannot. It underestimates the stability of trachea by exaggerating the displacement in compression. This study may improve our understanding of the nonlinear behavior of tracheal cartilage and it may be useful for the future study on tracheal collapse behavior under physiological and pathological conditions.

Assessment of inflammatory burden contralateral to the symptomatic carotid stenosis using high-resolution ultrasmall, superparamagnetic iron oxide-enhanced MRI

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE It is well known that the vulnerable atheromatous plaque has a thin, fibrous cap and large lipid core with associated inflammation. This inflammation can be detected on MRI with use of a contrast medium, Sinerem, an ultrasmall superparamagnetic iron oxide (USPIO). Although the incidence of macrophage activity in asymptomatic disease appears low, we aimed to explore the incidence of MRI-defined inflammation in asymptomatic plaques in patients with known contralateral symptomatic disease. METHODS Twenty symptomatic patients underwent multisequence MRI before and 36 hours after USPIO infusion. Images were manually segmented into quadrants, and the signal change in each quadrant was calculated after USPIO administration. A mixed mathematical model was developed to compare the mean signal change across all quadrants in the 2 groups. Patients had a mean symptomatic stenosis of 77% compared with 46% on their asymptomatic side, as measured by conventional angiography. RESULTS There were 11 (55%) men, and the median age was 72 years (range, 53 to 84 years). All patients had risk factors consistent with severe atherosclerotic disease. All symptomatic carotid stenoses had inflammation, as evaluated by USPIO-enhanced imaging. On the contralateral sides, inflammatory activity was found in 19 (95%) patients. Contralaterally, there were 163 quadrants (57%) with a signal loss after USPIO when compared with 217 quadrants (71%) on the symptomatic side (P=0.007). CONCLUSIONS - This study adds weight to the argument that atherosclerosis is a truly systemic disease. It suggests that investigation of the contralateral side in patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis can demonstrate inflammation in 95% of plaques, despite a mean stenosis of only 46%. Thus, inflammatory activity may be a significant risk factor in asymptomatic disease in patients who have known contralateral symptomatic disease. Patients with symptomatic carotid disease should have their contralateral carotid artery followed up.

Simplified Mathematical Model for Effects of Freezing on the Low-Temperature Performance of the Lead-Acid Battery

Discharge periods of lead-acid batteries are significantly reduced at subzero centigrade temperatures. The reduction is more than what can he expected due to decreased rates of various processes caused by a lowering of temperature and occurs despite the fact that active materials are available for discharge. It is proposed that the major cause for this is the freezing of the electrolyte. The concentration of acid decreases during battery discharge with a consequent increase in the freezing temperature. A battery freezes when the discharge temperature falls below the freezing temperature. A mathematical model is developed for conditions where charge-transfer reaction is the rate-limiting step. and Tafel kinetics are applicable. It is argued that freezing begins from the midplanes of electrodes and proceeds toward the reservoir in-between. Ionic conduction stops when one of the electrodes freezes fully and the time taken to reach that point, namely the discharge period, is calculated. The predictions of the model compare well to observations made at low current density (C/5) and at -20 and -40 degrees C. At higher current densities, however, diffusional resistances become important and a more complicated moving boundary problem needs to be solved to predict the discharge periods. (C) 2009 The Electrochemical Society.

Multifaceted Modelling of Complex Business Enterprises

We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control.

Mathematical model of arterial stenosis

A mathematical model for pulsatile flow in a partially occluded tube is presented. The problem has applications in studying the effects of blood flow characteristics on atherosclerotic development. The model brings out the importance of the pulsatility of blood flow on separation and the stress distribution. The results obtained show fairly good agreement with the available experimental results.

Children’s personal exposure to air pollution in rural villages in Bhutan

Exposure assessment studies conducted in developing countries have been based on fixed-site monitoring to date. This is a major deficiency, leading to errors in estimating the actual exposures, which are a function of time spent and pollutant concentrations in different microenvironments. This study quantified school children’s daily personal exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) using real-time monitoring, as well as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NO2 using passive sampling in rural Bhutan in order to determine the factors driving the exposures. An activity diary was used to track children’s time activity patterns, and difference in mean exposure levels across sex and indoor/outdoor were investigated with ANOVA. 82 children, attending three primary schools participated in this study; S1 and S2 during the wet season and S3 during the dry season. Mean daily UFP exposure (cm-3) was 1.08 × 104 for children attending S1, 9.81 × 103 for S2, and 4.19 × 104 for S3. The mean daily NO2 exposure (µg m-3) was 4.27 for S1, 3.33 for S2 and 5.38 for S3 children. Likewise, children attending S3 also experienced higher daily exposure to a majority of the VOCs than those attending S1 and S2. Time-series of UFP personal exposures provided detailed information on identifying sources of these particles and quantifying their contributions to the total daily exposures for each microenvironment. The highest UFP exposure resulted from cooking/eating, contributing to 64% of the daily exposure, due to firewood combustion in houses using traditional mud cookstoves. The lowest UFP exposures were during the hours that children spent outdoors at school. The outcomes of this study highlight the significant contributions of lifestyle and socio-economic factors in personal exposures and have applications in environmental risk assessment and household air pollution mitigation in Bhutan.

Atmospheric visibility and PM10 as indicators of new particle formation in an urban environment

It is well-known that new particle formation (NPF) in the atmosphere is inhibited by pre-existing particles in the air that act as condensation sinks to decrease the concentration and, thus, the supersaturation of precursor gases. In this study, we investigate the effects of two parameters - atmospheric visibility, expressed as the particle back-scatter coefficient (BSP), and PM10 particulate mass concentration, on the occurrences of NPF events in an urban environment where the majority of precursor gases originate from motor vehicle and industrial sources. This is the first attempt to derive direct relationships between each of these two parameters and the occurrence of NPF. NPF events were identified from data obtained with a neutral cluster and air ion spectrometer over 245 days within a calendar year. Bayesian logistic regression was used to determine the probability of observing NPF as functions of BSP and PM10. We show that the BSP at 08 h on a given day is a reliable indicator of an NPF event later that day. The posterior median probability of observing an NPF event was greater than 0.5 (95%) when the BSP at 08 h was less than 6.8 Mm-1.