Decision-making under extreme *uncertainty: Rethinking hazard -related perceptions and action

Understanding who evacuates and who does not has been one of the cornerstones of research on the pre-impact phase of both natural and technological hazards. Its history is rich in descriptive illustrations focusing on lists of characteristics of those who flee to safety. Early models of evacuation focused almost exclusively on the relationship between whether warnings were heard and ultimately believed and evacuation behavior. How people came to believe these warnings and even how they interpreted the warnings were not incorporated. In fact, the individual seemed almost removed from the picture with analysis focusing exclusively on external measures. ^ This study built and tested a more comprehensive model of evacuation that centers on the decision-making process, rather than decision outcomes. The model focused on three important factors that alter and shape the evacuation decision-making landscape. These factors are: individual level indicators which exist independently of the hazard itself and act as cultural lenses through which information is heard, processed and interpreted; hazard specific variables that directly relate to the specific hazard threat; and risk perception. The ultimate goal is to determine what factors influence the evacuation decision-making process. Using data collected for 1998's Hurricane Georges, logistic regression models were used to evaluate how well the three main factors help our understanding of how individuals come to their decisions to either flee to safety during a hurricane or remain in their homes. ^ The results of the logistic regression were significant emphasizing that the three broad types of factors tested in the model influence the decision making process. Conclusions drawn from the data analysis focus on how decision-making frames are different for those who can be designated “evacuators” and for those in evacuation zones. ^

The economic well -being of low -income immigrants in the U.S.: An examination of the impact of the 1996 welfare reform on immigrants

The 1996 welfare reform, for the first time in U.S. history, set a five-year residence requirement for immigrants to be eligible for federal welfare benefits. This dissertation assessed the impact of the 1996 welfare reform, specifically the immigrant provisions, on the economic well-being of low-income immigrants. This dissertation also explored the roles that migration selection theory and social capital theory play in the economic well-being of low-income immigrants. ^ This dissertation was based on an analysis of the March 1995, March 2002, and March 2006 Annual Demographic Supplement Files of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Both logistic regression and multiple regression were used to analyze economic well-being, comparing low-income immigrants with low-income citizens. Economic well-being was measured in the current survey year and the year before on the following variables: employment status, full-time status (35 or more hours per week), the number of weeks worked, and the total annual wage or salary.^ The major findings reported in this dissertation were that low-income immigrants had advantages over low-income citizens in the labor market. This may be due to immigrants' stronger motivation to obtain success, consistent with migration selection theory. Also, this research suggested that immigrant provisions had not ameliorated employment outcomes of low-income immigrants as policymakers may have expected.^ The study also confirmed the role of social capital in advancing the economic well-being of qualified immigrants. Ultimately, this dissertation contributed to our understanding of low-income immigrants in the U.S. The study questioned the claim that immigrants are attracted to the U.S. by welfare benefits. This dissertation suggested that immigrants come to the U.S., to a large extent, to pursue the goal of upward mobility. Consequently, immigrants may employ greater initiative and work harder than native-born Americans.^

Animals, Plants, People, and Things: A Review of Multispecies Ethnography

This article defines multispecies ethnography and links this scholarship to broader currents within academia, including in the biosciences, philosophy, political ecology, and animal welfare activism. The article is organized around a set of productive tensions identified in the review of the literature. It ends with a discussion of the “ethnographic” in multispecies ethnography, urging ethnographers to bring a “speculative wonder” to their mode of inquiry and writing.

The effects of resilience and social influences on preventing repeat adolescent pregnancies in parenting adolescent mothers

Every year, 16 million women aged 15 to 19 years give birth globally. Adolescent births account for 11% of all births globally and 23% of the overall burden of disability and diseases due to pregnancy and childbirth. In the United States, 750,000 adolescents (15-19 years) become pregnant each year, making the United States the developed country with the highest rates of adolescent pregnancy. The economic burden of adolescent pregnancy in the U. S. is $7-15 billion per year. Adolescent pregnancy brings risks associated with pregnancy induced hypertension, preterm infants, maternal and neonatal mortality. Social factors include poverty, low educational levels, alcohol, and drug use. Between 30-50% of adolescent mothers who have a first birth before age 18 years will have a second child within 12 to 24 months. Subsequent adolescent pregnancies compound fetal and maternal risks. Many vulnerable adolescent mothers succumb to external pressures and have a repeat adolescent pregnancy while others are able to overcome the challenges of an adolescent pregnancy and prevent a repeat adolescent pregnancy. This cross sectional survey designed study investigated the effects of resilience and social influences on contraceptive use or abstinence by Black and Hispanic adolescent parenting mothers to prevent a repeat adolescent pregnancy. 140 adolescent mothers were recruited from three postpartum units of a tertiary hospital system in Miami, Florida. The Wagnild and Young Resilience Scale and the Adolescent Social Influence Scale were used to measure resilience and social influences, respectively. Demographic data, length of labor, plan for contraceptive use or abstinence were measured by an investigator developed instrument. Point biserial correlation showed a significant positive correlation between Black adolescent mothers' resilience and contraceptive use (r =.366, p2(11, N=133) = 27.08, p =.004. (OR = .28). These results indicate a need for interventional strategies to maximize resilience in parenting adolescents to prevent a repeat adolescent pregnancy.

An evaluation of depression, self-efficacy, satisfaction with life and perceived access to medical care across stages of HIV infection

This survey was designed to identify the incidence and scope of depression, satisfaction with life, self-efficacy and perceived access to medical care for those who are infected with the HIV virus. It also determined whether or not factors such as sexual orientation, ethnicity and socioeconomic status are intervening variables with respect to mental health issues. Subjects were recruited through a purposive sample from South Florida. A total of 871 surveys were used in the analysis. The overall response rate was nearly 90%. The incidence of depression was found to be higher than 75% across all stages of HIV infection. Furthermore, the incidence of depression increased as HIV disease progressed. Satisfaction with life and for the most part, self efficacy were found to decrease slightly as HIV disease progressed. Significant variance in depression, life satisfaction and self efficacy were found across stages of HIV infection. No significant differences between groups that were HIV infected were found for depression, life satisfaction and self efficacy. The severity of depression was found to vary significantly with self efficacy, life satisfaction and access to medical care but not with socioeconomic status. Life satisfaction was found to vary significantly with socioeconomic status, depression and self efficacy but not with access to medical care. Self-efficacy was found to vary significantly with socioeconomic status, depression and life satisfaction but not with access to medical care. Gender and ethnicity were not found to be significant precedent variables in depression for HIV infected individuals. Sexual orientation was found to be a significant precedent variable for depression, life satisfaction and self efficacy.

Essays on intergenerational and regional aspects of water management

This dissertation consists of three essays on different aspects of water management. The first essay focuses on the sustainability of freshwater use by introducing the notion that altruistic parents do bequeath economic assets for their offspring. Constructing a two-period, over-lapping generational model, an optimal ratio of consumption and pollution for old and young generations in each period is determined. Optimal levels of water consumption and pollution change according to different parameters, such as, altruistic degree, natural recharge rate, and population growth. The second essay concerns water sharing between countries in the case of trans-boundary river basins. The paper recognizes that side payments fail to forge water-sharing agreement among the international community and that downstream countries have weak bargaining power. An interconnected game approach is developed by linking the water allocation issue with other non-water issues such as trade or border security problems, creating symmetry between countries in bargaining power. An interconnected game forces two countries to at least partially cooperate under some circumstances. The third essay introduces the concept of virtual water (VW) into a traditional international trade model in order to estimate water savings for a water scarce country. A two country, two products and two factors trade model is developed, which includes not only consumers and producer's surplus, but also environmental externality of water use. The model shows that VW trade saves water and increases global and local welfare. This study should help policy makers to design appropriate subsidy or tax policy to promote water savings especially in water scarce countries.^

Linking labour force participation, education, labour wages and household consumption in developing countries:push and pull effects in self-employment - evidence from Nigeria

The contribution of this thesis is in understanding the origins in developing countries of differences in labour wage and household consumption vis-à-vis educational abilities (and by extension employment statuses). This thesis adds to the labour market literature in developing countries by investigating the nature of employment and its consequences for labour wage and household consumption in a developing country. It utilizes multinomial probit, blinder-oaxaca, Heckman and quantile regressions to examine one human capital indicator: educational attainment; and two welfare proxies: labour wage and household consumption, in a developing country, Nigeria. It finds that, empirically, the self-employed are a heterogeneous group of individuals made up of a few highly educated individuals, and a significant majority of ‘not so educated’ individuals who mostly earn less than paid workers. It also finds that a significant number of employers enjoy labour wage premiums; and having a higher proportion of employers in the household has a positive relationship with household consumption. The thesis furthermore discovers an upper educational threshold for women employers not found for men. Interestingly, the thesis also finds that there is indeed an ordering of labour wages into low-income self-employment (which seems to be found mainly in “own account” self-employment), medium-income paid employment, and high-income self-employment (which seems to be found mainly among employers), and that this corresponds to a similar ordering of low human capital, medium human capital and high human capital among labour market participants, as expressed through educational attainments. These show that as a whole, employers can largely be classed as experiencing pulled self-employment, as they appear to be advantaged in all three criteria (educational attainments, labour wage and household consumption). A minority of self-employed “own account” workers (specifically those at the upper end of the income distribution who are well educated), can also be classed as experiencing pulled self-employment. The rest of the significant majority of self-employed “own account” workers in this study can be classed as experiencing pushed self-employment in terms of the indicators used.

Length of stay in a neonatal intensive care unit and its association with low rates of exclusive breastfeeding in very low birth weight infants

OBJECTIVE: To identify the inpatient maternal and neonatal factors associated to the weaning of very low birth weight (VLBW) infants. METHODS: One hundred nineteen VLBW (<1500 g) infants were monitored from July 2005 through August 2006, from birth to the first ambulatory visit after maternity discharge. This maternity unit uses the Kangaroo Method and the Baby Friendly Hospital Initiative. Out of 119 VLBW infants monitored until discharge, 88 (75%) returned to the facility, 22 (25%) were on exclusive breastfeeding (EB), and 66 (75%) were weaned (partial breastfeeding or formula feeding). RESULTS: Univariate analysis found an association between weaning and lower birth weight, longer stays in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), and longer hospitalization times, in addition to more prolonged enteral feeding and birth weight recovery period. Logistic regression showed length of NICU stay as being the main determinant of weaning. CONCLUSION: The negative repercussion on EB of an extended stay in the NICU is a significant challenge for health professionals to provide more adequate nutrition to VLBW infants.

Length of stay in a neonatal intensive care unit and its association with low rates of exclusive breastfeeding in very low birth weight infants

OBJECTIVE: To identify the inpatient maternal and neonatal factors associated to the weaning of very low birth weight (VLBW) infants. METHODS: One hundred nineteen VLBW (<1500 g) infants were monitored from July 2005 through August 2006, from birth to the first ambulatory visit after maternity discharge. This maternity unit uses the Kangaroo Method and the Baby Friendly Hospital Initiative. Out of 119 VLBW infants monitored until discharge, 88 (75%) returned to the facility, 22 (25%) were on exclusive breastfeeding (EB), and 66 (75%) were weaned (partial breastfeeding or formula feeding). RESULTS: Univariate analysis found an association between weaning and lower birth weight, longer stays in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), and longer hospitalization times, in addition to more prolonged enteral feeding and birth weight recovery period. Logistic regression showed length of NICU stay as being the main determinant of weaning. CONCLUSION: The negative repercussion on EB of an extended stay in the NICU is a significant challenge for health professionals to provide more adequate nutrition to VLBW infants.

Solution-focused practices in child welfare supervision

This research was an exploratory pilot study on the use and need of solution-focused practices in supervision according to child welfare workers and child welfare supervisors in Nova Scotia, Canada. Child welfare workers and supervisors were invited to participate in an online questionnaire exploring the use and need of solution-focused practices in child welfare supervision. The collected data indicated that these practices were being implemented and that workers and supervisors believe there is a need for them. Further research and training on solution-focused practices in the supervision of child welfare workers could be beneficial to help create the most productive supervision experience that positively impacts everyone involved.

Seafood inclusion in commercial main meal early years' food products

Acknowledgement We are grateful to the food manufacturers for answering queries and supplying missing nutritional information. Source of funding The study was funded by the Seafish and Interface Food and Drink as part of a Doctorate Scholarship undertaken at the University of Aberdeen. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Seafood inclusion in commercial main meal early years' food products

Acknowledgement We are grateful to the food manufacturers for answering queries and supplying missing nutritional information. Source of funding The study was funded by the Seafish and Interface Food and Drink as part of a Doctorate Scholarship undertaken at the University of Aberdeen. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Women March concerning welfare

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Welfare demonstration outside the Miami Democratic Convention

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Using Bird Distributions to Assess Extinction Risk and Identify Conservation Priorities in Biodiversity Hotspots

Habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation threaten the World’s ecosystems and species. These, and other threats, will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Due to a limited budget for conservation, we are forced to prioritize a few areas over others. These places are selected based on their uniqueness and vulnerability. One of the most famous examples is the biodiversity hotspots: areas where large quantities of endemic species meet alarming rates of habitat loss. Most of these places are in the tropics, where species have smaller ranges, diversity is higher, and ecosystems are most threatened.

Species distributions are useful to understand ecological theory and evaluate extinction risk. Small-ranged species, or those endemic to one place, are more vulnerable to extinction than widely distributed species. However, current range maps often overestimate the distribution of species, including areas that are not within the suitable elevation or habitat for a species. Consequently, assessment of extinction risk using these maps could underestimate vulnerability.

In order to be effective in our quest to conserve the World’s most important places we must: 1) Translate global and national priorities into practical local actions, 2) Find synergies between biodiversity conservation and human welfare, 3) Evaluate the different dimensions of threats, in order to design effective conservation measures and prepare for future threats, and 4) Improve the methods used to evaluate species’ extinction risk and prioritize areas for conservation. The purpose of this dissertation is to address these points in Colombia and other global biodiversity hotspots.

In Chapter 2, I identified the global, strategic conservation priorities and then downscaled to practical local actions within the selected priorities in Colombia. I used existing range maps of 171 bird species to identify priority conservation areas that would protect the greatest number of species at risk in Colombia (endemic and small-ranged species). The Western Andes had the highest concentrations of such species—100 in total—but the lowest densities of national parks. I then adjusted the priorities for this region by refining these species ranges by selecting only areas of suitable elevation and remaining habitat. The estimated ranges of these species shrank by 18–100% after accounting for habitat and suitable elevation. Setting conservation priorities on the basis of currently available range maps excluded priority areas in the Western Andes and, by extension, likely elsewhere and for other taxa. By incorporating detailed maps of remaining natural habitats, I made practical recommendations for conservation actions. One recommendation was to restore forest connections to a patch of cloud forest about to become isolated from the main Andes.

For Chapter 3, I identified areas where bird conservation met ecosystem service protection in the Central Andes of Colombia. Inspired by the November 11th (2011) landslide event near Manizales, and the current poor results of Colombia’s Article 111 of Law 99 of 1993 as a conservation measure in this country, I set out to prioritize conservation and restoration areas where landslide prevention would complement bird conservation in the Central Andes. This area is one of the most biodiverse places on Earth, but also one of the most threatened. Using the case of the Rio Blanco Reserve, near Manizales, I identified areas for conservation where endemic and small-range bird diversity was high, and where landslide risk was also high. I further prioritized restoration areas by overlapping these conservation priorities with a forest cover map. Restoring forests in bare areas of high landslide risk and important bird diversity yields benefits for both biodiversity and people. I developed a simple landslide susceptibility model using slope, forest cover, aspect, and stream proximity. Using publicly available bird range maps, refined by elevation, I mapped concentrations of endemic and small-range bird species. I identified 1.54 km2 of potential restoration areas in the Rio Blanco Reserve, and 886 km2 in the Central Andes region. By prioritizing these areas, I facilitate the application of Article 111 which requires local and regional governments to invest in land purchases for the conservation of watersheds.

Chapter 4 dealt with elevational ranges of montane birds and the impact of lowland deforestation on their ranges in the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot. Using point counts and mist-nets, I surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400m. I compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analyzing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, I tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species’ elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species’ elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.

In Chapter 5, I refine the ranges of 726 species from six biodiversity hotspots by suitable elevation and habitat. This set of 172 bird species for the Atlantic Forest, 138 for Central America, 100 for the Western Andes of Colombia, 57 for Madagascar, 102 for Sumatra, and 157 for Southeast Asia met the criteria for range size, endemism, threat, and forest use. Of these 586 species, the Red List deems 108 to be threatened: 15 critically endangered, 29 endangered, and 64 vulnerable. When ranges are refined by elevational limits and remaining forest cover, 10 of those critically endangered species have ranges < 100km2, but then so do 2 endangered species, seven vulnerable, and eight non-threatened ones. Similarly, 4 critically endangered species, 20 endangered, and 12 vulnerable species have refined ranges < 5000km2, but so do 66 non-threatened species. A striking 89% of these species I have classified in higher threat categories have <50% of their refined ranges inside protected areas. I find that for 43% of the species I assessed, refined range sizes fall within thresholds that typically have higher threat categories than their current assignments. I recommend these species for closer inspection by those who assess risk. These assessments are not only important on a species-by-species basis, but by combining distributions of threatened species, I create maps of conservation priorities. They differ significantly from those created from unrefined ranges.