Dye doped, core / shell silica nanoparticles: synthesis, characterization, & biotechnological applications

The aim of this thesis was to design, synthesize and develop a nanoparticle based system to be used as a chemosensor or as a label in bioanalytical applications. A versatile fluorescent functionalizable nanoarchitecture has been effectively produced based on the hydrolysis and condensation of TEOS in direct micelles of Pluronic® F 127, obtaining highly monodisperse silica - core / PEG - shell nanoparticles with a diameter of about 20 nm. Surface functionalized nanoparticles have been obtained in a one-pot procedure by chemical modification of the hydroxyl terminal groups of the surfactant. To make them fluorescent, a whole library of triethoxysilane fluorophores (mainly BODIPY based), encompassing the whole visible spectrum has been synthesized: this derivatization allows a high degree of doping, but the close proximity of the molecules inside the silica matrix leads to the development of self - quenching processes at high doping levels, with the concomitant fall of the fluorescence signal intensity. In order to bypass this parasite phenomenon, multichromophoric systems have been prepared, where highly efficient FRET processes occur, showing that this energy pathway is faster than self - quenching, recovering the fluorescence signal. The FRET efficiency remains very high even four dye nanoparticles, increasing the pseudo Stokes shift of the system, attractive feature for multiplexing analysis. These optimized nanoparticles have been successfully exploited in molecular imaging applications such as in vitro, in vivo and ex vivo imaging, proving themselves superior to conventional molecular fluorophores as signaling units.

Fermentative processes for environmental remediation

The growing interest in environmental protection has led to the development of emerging biotechnologies for environmental remediation also introducing the biorefinery concept. This work mainly aimed to evaluate the applicability of innovative biotechnologies for environmental remediation and bioenergy production, throught fermentative processes. The investigated biotechnologies for waste and wastewater treatment and for the valorisation of specific feedstocks and energy recovery, were mainly focused on four research lines. 1. Biotechnology for textile wastewater treatment and water reuse that involving anaerobic and aerobic processes in combination with membrane technologies. Combinations of different treatments were also implemented for water reuse in a textile company. 2. Biotechnology for the treatment of solid waste and leachate in landfill and for biogas production. Landfill operated as Bioreactor with recirculation of the generated leachate was proposed for organic matter biostabilisation and for ammonia removal from leachate by favouring the Anammox process. 3. An innovative two-stage anaerobic process for effective codigestion of waste from the dairy industry, as cheese whey and dairy manure, was studied by combining conventional fermentative processes with a simplified system design for enhancing biomethanisation. 4) The valorisation of the glycerol waste as surplus by-product of the biodiesel industry was investigated via microbial conversion to value-added chemicals, as 1,3-propanediol. The investigated fermentative processes have been successfully implemented and reached high yields of the produced bio-chemical. The studied biotechnological systems proved to be feasible for environmental remediation and bioenergy and chemicals production.

Effects of artificial defences and flooding on coastal habitats and assemblages

Since large stretches of European coasts are already retreating and projected scenarios are worsening, many artificial structures, such as breakwaters and seawalls, are built as tool against coastal erosion. However artificial structures produce widespread changes that alter the coastal zones and affect the biological communities. My doctoral thesis analyses the consequences of different options for coastal protection, namely hard engineering ‘artificial defences’ (i.e. impact of human-made structures) and ‘no-defence’ (i.e. impact of seawater inundation). I investigated two new aspects of the potential impact of coastal defences. The first was the effect of artificial hard substrates on the fish communities structure. In particular I was interested to test if the differences among breakwaters and natural rocky reef would change depending on the nature of the surrounding habitat of the artificial structure (prevalent sandy rather than rocky). The second was the effect on the native natural sandy habitats of the organic detritus derived from hard-bottom species (green algae and mussels) detached from breakwaters. Furthermore, I investigated the ecological implication of the “no-defend” option, which allow the inundation of coastal habitats. The focus of this study was the potential effect of seawater intrusion on the degradation process of marine, salt-marsh and terrestrial detritus, including changes on the breakdown rates and the associated macrofauna. The PhD research was conducted in three areas along European coasts: North Adriatic sea, Sicilian coast and South-West England where different habitats (coastal, estuarine), biological communities (soft-bottom macro-benthos; rocky-coastal fishes; estuarine macro-invertebrates) and processes (organic enrichment; assemblage structure; leaf-litter breakdown) were analyzed. The research was carried out through manipulative and descriptive field-experiments in which specific hypothesis were tested by univariate and multivariate analyses.

Taste receptors in the gut: a chemosensitive mechanism from fish to human

The ingestion of a meal evokes a series of digestive processes, which consist of the essential functions of the digestive system: food transport, secretory activity, absorption of nutrients and the expulsion of undigested residues do not absorbed. The gastrointestinal chemosensitivity is characterized by cellular elements of the endocrine gastrointestinal mucosa and nerve fibers, in particular of vagal nature. A wide range of mediators endocrine and/or paracrine can be released from various endocrine cells in response to nutrients in the diet. These hormones, in addition to their direct activity, act through specific receptors activating some of the most important functions in the control of energy intake and energy homeostasis in the body. For integration of this complex system of control of gastrointestinal chemosensitivity, recent evidence demonstrates the presence of taste receptors (TR) belonging to the family of G proteins coupled receptor expressed in the mucosa of the gastrointestinal tract of different mammals and human. This thesis is divided into several research projects that have been conceived in order to clarify the relationship between TR and nutrients. To define this relationship I have used various scientific approaches, which have gone on to evaluate changes in signal molecules of TR, in particular of the α-transducin in the fasting state and after refeeding with standard diet in the gastrointestinal tract of the pig, the mapping of the same molecule signal in the gastrointestinal tract of fish (Dicentrarchus labrax), the signaling pathway of bitter TR in the STC-1 endocrine cell line and finally the involvement of bitter TR in particular of T2R38 in patients with an excessive caloric intake. The results showed how there is a close correlation between nutrients, TR and hormonal release and how they are useful both in taste perception but also likely to be involved in chronic diseases such as obesity.

Oxidation photochemistry in the remote marine boundary layer

Die bedeutendste Folge der Luftverschmutzung ist eine erhöhte Konzentration an Ozon (O3) in der Troposphäre innerhalb der letzten 150 Jahre. Ozon ist ein photochemisches Oxidationsmittel und ein Treibhausgas, das als wichtigste Vorstufe des Hydroxyradikals OH die Oxidationskraft der Atmosphäre stark beeinflusst. Um die Oxidationskraft der Atmosphäre und ihren Einfluss auf das Klima verstehen zu können, ist es von großer Bedeutung ein detailliertes Wissen über die Photochemie des Ozons und seiner Vorläufer, den Stickoxiden (NOx), in der Troposphäre zu besitzen. Dies erfordert das Verstehen der Bildungs- und Abbaumechanismen von Ozon und seiner Vorläufer. Als eine für den chemischen Ozonabbau wichtige Region kann die vom Menschen weitgehend unberührte marine Grenzschicht (Marine boundary layer (MBL)) angesehen werden. Bisher wurden für diese Region jedoch kaum Spurengasmessungen durchgeführt, und so sind die dort ablaufenden photochemischen Prozesse wenig untersucht. Da etwa 70 % der Erdoberfläche mit Ozeanen bedeckt sind, können die in der marinen Granzschicht ablaufenden Prozesse als signifikant für die gesamte Atmosphäre angesehen werden. Dies macht eine genaue Untersuchung dieser Region interessant. Um die photochemische Produktion und den Abbau von Ozon abschätzen zu können und den Einfluss antrophogener Emissionen auf troposphärisches Ozon zu quantifizieren, sind aktuelle Messergebnisse von NOx im pptv-Bereich für diese Region erforderlich. Die notwendigen Messungen von NO, NO2, O3, JNO2, J(O1D), HO2, OH, ROx sowie einiger meteorologischer Parameter wurden während der Fahrt des französischen Forschungsschiffes Marion-Dufresne auf dem südlichen Atlantik (28°S-57°S, 46°W-34°E) im März 2007 durchgeführt. Dabei sind für NO und NO2 die bisher niedrigsten gemessenen Werte zu verzeichnen. Die während der Messcampagne gewonnen Daten wurden hinsichtlich Ihrer Übereinstimmung mit den Bedingungen des photochemischen stationären Gleichgewichts (photochemical steady state (PSS)) überprüft. Dabei konnte eine Abweichung vom PSS festgestellt werden, welche unter Bedingungen niedriger NOx-Konzentrationen (5 bis 25pptv) einen unerwarteten Trend im Leighton-Verhältnis bewirkt, der abhängig vom NOx Mischungsverhältnis und der JNO2 Intensität ist. Signifikante Abweichungen vom Verhältnis liegen bei einer Zunahme der JNO2 Intensität vor. Diese Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Abweichung vom PSS nicht beim Minimum der NOx-Konzentrationen und der JNO2 Werte liegt, so wie es in bisherigen theoretischen Studien dargelegt wurde und können als Hinweis auf weitere photochemische Prozesse bei höheren JNO2-Werten in einem System mit niedrigem NOx verstanden werden. Das wichtigste Ergebnis dieser Untersuchung, ist die Verifizierung des Leighton-Verhältnisses, das zur Charakterisierung des PSS dient, bei sehr geringen NOx-Konzentrationen in der MBL. Die bei dieser Doktorarbeit gewonnenen Erkenntnisse beweisen, dass unter den Bedingungen der marinen Granzschicht rein photochemischer Abbau von Ozon stattfindet und als Hauptursache hierfür während des Tages die Photolyse gilt. Mit Hilfe der gemessenen Parameter wurde der kritische NO-Level auf Werte zwischen 5 und 9 pptv abgeschätzt, wobei diese Werte im Vergleich zu bisherigen Studien vergleichsweise niedrig sind. Möglicherweise bedeutet dies, dass das Ozon Produktion/ Abbau-Potential des südlichen Atlantiks deutlich stärker auf die Verfügbarkeit von NO reagiert, als es in anderen Regionen der Fall ist. Im Rahmen der Doktorarbeit wurde desweiteren ein direkter Vergleich der gemessenen Spezies mit dem Modelergebnis eines 3-dimensionalen Zirkulationsmodel zur Simulation atmosphären chemischer Prozesse (EMAC) entlang der exakten Schiffsstrecke durchgeführt. Um die Übereinstimmung der Messergebnisse mit dem bisherigen Verständnis der atmosphärischen Radikalchemie zu überprüfen, wurde ein Gleichgewichtspunktmodel entwickelt, das die während der Überfahrt erhaltenen Daten für Berechungen verwendet. Ein Vergleich zwischen der gemessenen und der modellierten ROx Konzentrationen in einer Umgebung mit niedrigem NOx zeigt, dass die herkömmliche Theorie zur Reproduktion der Beobachtungen unzureichend ist. Die möglichen Gründe hierfür und die Folgen werden in dieser Doktorarbeit diskutiert.

Reactive halogen compounds in the marine boundary layer: method developments and field measurements

Reactive halogen compounds are known to play an important role in a wide variety of atmospheric processes such as atmospheric oxidation capacity and coastal new particle formation. In this work, novel analytical approaches combining diffusion denuder/impinger sampling techniques with gas chromatographic–mass spectrometric (GC–MS) determination are developed to measure activated chlorine compounds (HOCl and Cl2), activated bromine compounds (HOBr, Br2, BrCl, and BrI), activated iodine compounds (HOI and ICl), and molecular iodine (I2). The denuder/GC–MS methods have been used to field measurements in the marine boundary layer (MBL). High mixing ratios (of the order of 100 ppt) of activated halogen compounds and I2 are observed in the coastal MBL in Ireland, which explains the ozone destruction observed. The emission of I2 is found to correlate inversely with tidal height and correlate positively with the levels of O3 in the surrounding air. In addition the release is found to be dominated by algae species compositions and biomass density, which proves the “hot-spot” hypothesis of atmospheric iodine chemistry. The observations of elevated I2 concentrations substantially support the existence of higher concentrations of littoral iodine oxides and thus the connection to the strong ultra-fine particle formation events in the coastal MBL.

Tailoring properties and functionalities of TiO2 and Ag nanoparticles involved in surfaces engineering processes

The functionalization of substrates through the application of nanostructured coatings allows to create new materials, with enhanced properties. In this work, the development of self-cleaning and antibacterial textiles, through the application of TiO2 and Ag based nanostructured coatings was carried out. The production of TiO2 and Ag functionalized materials was achieved both by the classical dip-padding-curing method and by the innovative electrospinning process to obtain nanofibers doped with nano-TiO2 and nano-Ag. In order to optimize the production of functionalized textiles, the study focused on the comprehension of mechanisms involved in the photocatalytic and antibacterial processes and on the real applicability of the products. In particular, a deep investigation on the relationship between nanosol physicochemical characteristics, nanocoating properties and their performances was accomplished. Self-cleaning textiles with optimized properties were obtained by properly purifying and applying commercial TiO2 nanosol while the studies on the photocatalytic mechanism operating in self-cleaning application demonstrated the strong influence of hydrophilic properties and of interaction surface/radicals on final performance. Moreover, a study about the safety in handling of nano-TiO2 was carried out and risk remediation strategies, based on “safety by design” approach, were developed. In particular, the coating of TiO2 nanoparticles by a SiO2 shell was demonstrated to be the best risk remediation strategy in term of biological response and preserving of photoreactivity. The obtained results were confirmed determining the reactive oxygen species production by a multiple approach. Antibacterial textiles for biotechnological applications were also studied and Ag-coated cotton materials, with significant anti-bacterial properties, were produced. Finally, composite nanofibers were obtained merging biopolymer processing and sol-gel techniques. Indeed, electrospun nanofibers embedded with TiO2 and Ag NPs, starting from aqueous keratin based formulation were produced and the photocatalytic and antibacterial properties were assessed. The results confirmed the capability of electrospun keratin nanofibers matrix to preserve nanoparticle properties.

Demersal communities in the Mediterranean Sea: a case study of Triglidae (Osteichthyes, Scorpaeniformes) on the conservation and sustainable use of marine resources

An appropriate management of fisheries resources can only be achieved with the continuous supply of information on the structure and biology of populations, in order to predict the temporal fluctuations. This study supports the importance of investigating the bio-ecology of increasingly exploited and poorly known species, such as gurnards (Osteichthyes, Triglidae) from Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean), to quantify their ecological role into marine community. It also focuses on investigate inter and intra-specific structuring factor of Adriatic population. These objectives were achieved by: 1) investigating aspects of the population dynamics; 2) studying the feeding biology through the examination of stomach contents; 3) using sagittal otoliths as potential marker of species life cycle; 4) getting preliminary data on mDNA phylogeny. Gurnards showed a specie-specific “critical size” coinciding with the start of sexual maturity, the tendency to migrate to greater depths, a change of diet from crustaceans to fish and an increase of variety of food items eaten. Distribution of prey items, predator size range and depth distribution were the main dimensions that influence the breadth of trophic niche and the relative difference amongst Adriatic gurnards. Several feeding preferences were individuated and a possible impact among bigger-size gurnards and other commercial fishes (anchovy, gadoids) and Crustacea (such as mantis prawn and shrimps) were to be necessary considered. Otolith studies showed that gurnard species have a very fast growth despite other results in other areas; intra-specific differences and the increase in the variability of otolith shape, sulcus acusticus shape, S:O ratios, sulcus acusticus external crystals arrangement were shown between juveniles and adults and were linked to growth (individual genetic factors) and to environmental conditions (e.g. depth and trophic niche distribution). In order to facilitate correct biological interpretation of data, molecular data were obtained for comparing morphological distance to genetic ones.

The reconstruction of paleoclimate variability in Northern Germany, during marine isotope stage 5

In order to obtain a better understanding about the influence of post-depositional diagenesis on speleothem 230Th/U-ages and paleoclimate variability during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 in northern Germany, four stalagmites from the Riesenberghöhle (RBH) were investigated by thin section analysis, 230Th/U-dating as well as stable oxygen and carbon isotope and laser ablation inductively coupled mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) trace element analysis. The RBH is located in the Weser Hills and is one of the northernmost limestone caves in Germany.rnMulti collector (MC) ICPMS 230Th/U-ages and thin section analysis of the RBH stalagmites shows that some growth phases of the stalagmites were diagenetically altered after their deposition. The impact of post-depositional diagenesis (PDD) on the 230Th/U-ages is modeled, and potential processes leading to PDD are discussed. In this context, it is suggested that PDD may be induced by rapid climate change at the inception of the GIS.rnDespite of the dating uncertainties resulting from PDD, 230Th/U-dating shows that the RBH stalagmites grew during the Eemian and most of the Greenland Interstadials (GIS) during MIS 5. Thus, the growth phases of the RBH stalagmites might be related to a reorganization of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The stable isotope (δ13C and δ18O) and the trace element variability of the stalagmites reflects rapid changes of past temperature and precipitation on millennial and sub-millennial timescales. These past climate changes can be amplified by orbitally forced variations of the July solar insolation at 65°N.

Assessment of marine litter in the Western Adriatic Sea and its impact on marine biota

Due to its environmental, safety, health and socio-economic impacts, marine litter has been recognized as a 21st century global challenge, so that it has been included in Descriptor 10 of the EU MSFD. For its morphological features and anthropogenic pressures, the Adriatic Sea is very sensitive to the accumulation of debris, but data are inconsistent and fragmented. This thesis, in the framework of DeFishGear project, intents to assess marine litter on beaches and on seafloor in the Western Adriatic sea, and test if debris ingestion by fish occurs. Three beaches were sampled during two surveys in 2015. Benthic litter monitoring was carried out in the FAO GSA17 during fall 2014, using a rapido trawl. Litter ingestion was investigated through gut contents analysis of 260 fish belonging to 8 commercial species collected in Western Gulf of Venice. Average litter density on beaches was 1.5 items/m2 during spring, and decreased to 0.8 items/m2 in summer. Litter composition was heterogeneous and varied among sites, even if no significant differences were found. Most of debris consisted of plastic sheets, fragments, polystyrene pieces, mussels nets and cottons bud sticks, showing that sources are many and include aquaculture, land-based activities and local users of beaches. Average density of benthic litter was 913 items/Km2 (82 Kg/Km2). Plastic dominated in terms of numbers and weight, and consisted mainly of bags, sheets and mussel nets. The highest density was found close to the coast, and sources driving the major differences in litter distribution were mussel farms and shipping lanes. Litter ingestion occurred in 47% of examined fish, mainly consisting of fibers. Among species, S. pilchardus swallowed almost all debris categories. Findinds may provide a baseline to set the necessary measures to manage and minimize marine litter in the Western Adriatic region and to protect aquatic life from plastic pollution, even accounting the possible implications on human health.

Hybridization between distant lineages increases adaptive variation during a biological invasion: stickleback in Switzerland

The three-spined stickleback is a widespread Holarctic species complex that radiated from the sea into freshwaters after the retreat of the Pleistocene ice sheets. In Switzerland, sticklebacks were absent with the exception of the far northwest, but different introduced populations have expanded to occupy a wide range of habitats since the late 19th century. A well-studied adaptive phenotypic trait in sticklebacks is the number of lateral plates. With few exceptions, freshwater and marine populations in Europe are fixed for either the low plated phenotype or the fully plated phenotype, respectively. Switzerland, in contrast, harbours in close proximity the full range of phenotypic variation known from across the continent. We addressed the phylogeographic origins of Swiss sticklebacks using mitochondrial partial cytochrome b and control region sequences. We found only five different haplotypes but these originated from three distinct European regions, fixed for different plate phenotypes. These lineages occur largely in isolation at opposite ends of Switzerland, but co-occur in a large central part. Across the country, we found a strong correlation between a microsatellite linked to the high plate ectodysplasin allele and the mitochondrial haplotype from a region where the fully plated phenotype is fixed. Phylogenomic and population genomic analysis of 481 polymorphic amplified fragment length polymorphism loci indicate genetic admixture in the central part of the country. The same part of the country also carries elevated within-population phenotypic variation. We conclude that during the recent invasive range expansion of sticklebacks in Switzerland, adaptive and neutral between-population genetic variation was converted into within-population variation, raising the possibility that hybridization between colonizing lineages contributed to the ecological success of sticklebacks in Switzerland.

Female mating preferences and male coloration covary with water transparency in a Lake Victoria cichlid fish

Rapid speciation in Lake Victoria cichlid fish of the genus Pundamilia may be facilitated by sexual selection: female mate choice exerts sexual selection on male nuptial coloration within species and maintains reproductive isolation between species. However, declining water transparency coincides with increasingly dull coloration and increasing hybridization. In the present study, we investigated the mechanism underlying this pattern in Pundamilia nyererei, a species that interbreeds with a sister species in turbid but not in clear water. We compared measures of intraspecific sexual selection between two populations from locations that differ in water transparency. First, in laboratory mate-choice experiments, conducted in clear water and under broad-spectrum illumination, we found that females originating from turbid water have significantly weaker preferences for male coloration than females originating from clear water. Second, both the hue and body coverage of male coloration differ between populations, which is consistent with adaptation to different photic habitats. These findings suggest that the observed relationship between male coloration and water transparency is not mediated by environmental variation alone. Rather, female mating preferences are indicated to have changed in response to this variation, constituting the first evidence for intraspecific preference-trait co-evolution in cichlid fish. (C) 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 99, 398-406.

Quantification of the carbonaceous matter origin in submicron marine aerosol by 13C and 14C isotope analysis

Dual carbon isotope anal. of marine aerosol samples has been performed for the first time demonstrating a potential in org. matter apportionment between three principal sources: marine, terrestrial (non-fossil) and fossil fuel due to unique isotopic signatures. The results presented here, utilizing combinations of dual carbon isotope anal., provides conclusive evidence of a dominant biogenic org. fraction to org. aerosol over biol. active oceans. In particular, the NE Atlantic, which is also subjected to notable anthropogenic influences via pollution transport processes, was found to contain 80 % org. aerosol matter of biogenic origin directly linked to plankton emissions. The remaining carbonaceous aerosol was of terrestrial origin. By contrast, for polluted air advected out from Europe into the NE Atlantic, the source apportionment is 30 % marine biogenic, 40 % fossil fuel, and 30 % continental non-fossil fuel. The dominant marine org. aerosol source in the atm. has significant implications for climate change feedback processes. [on SciFinder(R)]

Community Genetics Reveal Elevated Levels of Sympatric Gene Flow among Morphologically Similar but Not among Morphologically Dissimilar Species of Lake Victoria Cichlid Fish

We examined genetic structure among five species of Lake Victoria haplochromine cichlids in four island communities, using a full factorial sampling design that compared genetic differentiation between pairs of species and populations of varying morphological similarity and geographical proximity. We found that allopatric conspecific populations were on average significantly more strongly differentiated than sympatric heterospecific populations of morphologically similar species. Allopatric heterospecific populations of morphologically dissimilar species were most differentiated. Our work demonstrates that phenotypic divergence can be maintained and perhaps even evolve in sympatry despite considerable gene flow between species. Conversely, phenotypic resemblance among conspecific populations can be maintained despite geographical isolation. Additionally we show that anthropogenically increased hybridization does not affect all sympatric species evenly but predominantly affects morphologically similar and closely related species. This has important implications for the evolution of reproductive isolation between species These findings are also consistent with the hypothesis of speciation reversal due to weakening of divergent selection and reproductive isolation as a consequence of habitat homogenization and offers an evolutionary mechanistic explanation for the observation that species poor assemblages in turbid areas of the lake are characterized by just one or two species in each of a few morphologically distinct genera.

Stocking of captive-bred fish can cause long-term population decline and gene pool replacement: predictions from a population dynamics model incorporating density-dependent mortality

Releasing captive-bred fish into natural environments (stocking) is common in fisheries worldwide. Although stocking is believed to have a positive effect on fish abundance over the short term, little is known about the long-term consequences of recurrent stocking and its influence on natural populations. In fact, there are growing concerns that genetically maladapted captive-bred fish can eventually reduce the abundance of natural population. In this study, we develop a simple model to quantitatively investigate the condition under which recurrent stocking has long-term effects on the natural population. Using a population dynamics model that takes into account a density-dependent recruitment, a gene responsible for the fitness difference between wild and captive-bred fish, and hybridization between them, we show that there is little or no contribution of recurrent stocking to the stock enhancement without a replacement of the wild gene pool by the captive-bred gene pool. The model further predicted that stocking of an intermediate level causes a reduction, rather than enhancement, of population size over the long term. The population decline due to stocking was attributed to the fitness disadvantage of captive-bred fish and strong overcompensation at recruitment stage. These results suggest that it would be difficult to simultaneously attain population size recovery and conservation of the local gene pool when captive-bred fish have fitness disadvantage in the wild, although caution is needed when applying the predictions from the simplified model to a specific species or population.