Linguistic models for decision support

Linguistic modelling is a rather new branch of mathematics that is still undergoing rapid development. It is closely related to fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic, but knowledge and experience from other fields of mathematics, as well as other fields of science including linguistics and behavioral sciences, is also necessary to build appropriate mathematical models. This topic has received considerable attention as it provides tools for mathematical representation of the most common means of human communication - natural language. Adding a natural language level to mathematical models can provide an interface between the mathematical representation of the modelled system and the user of the model - one that is sufficiently easy to use and understand, but yet conveys all the information necessary to avoid misinterpretations. It is, however, not a trivial task and the link between the linguistic and computational level of such models has to be established and maintained properly during the whole modelling process. In this thesis, we focus on the relationship between the linguistic and the mathematical level of decision support models. We discuss several important issues concerning the mathematical representation of meaning of linguistic expressions, their transformation into the language of mathematics and the retranslation of mathematical outputs back into natural language. In the first part of the thesis, our view of the linguistic modelling for decision support is presented and the main guidelines for building linguistic models for real-life decision support that are the basis of our modeling methodology are outlined. From the theoretical point of view, the issues of representation of meaning of linguistic terms, computations with these representations and the retranslation process back into the linguistic level (linguistic approximation) are studied in this part of the thesis. We focus on the reasonability of operations with the meanings of linguistic terms, the correspondence of the linguistic and mathematical level of the models and on proper presentation of appropriate outputs. We also discuss several issues concerning the ethical aspects of decision support - particularly the loss of meaning due to the transformation of mathematical outputs into natural language and the issue or responsibility for the final decisions. In the second part several case studies of real-life problems are presented. These provide background and necessary context and motivation for the mathematical results and models presented in this part. A linguistic decision support model for disaster management is presented here – formulated as a fuzzy linear programming problem and a heuristic solution to it is proposed. Uncertainty of outputs, expert knowledge concerning disaster response practice and the necessity of obtaining outputs that are easy to interpret (and available in very short time) are reflected in the design of the model. Saaty’s analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is considered in two case studies - first in the context of the evaluation of works of art, where a weak consistency condition is introduced and an adaptation of AHP for large matrices of preference intensities is presented. The second AHP case-study deals with the fuzzified version of AHP and its use for evaluation purposes – particularly the integration of peer-review into the evaluation of R&D outputs is considered. In the context of HR management, we present a fuzzy rule based evaluation model (academic faculty evaluation is considered) constructed to provide outputs that do not require linguistic approximation and are easily transformed into graphical information. This is achieved by designing a specific form of fuzzy inference. Finally the last case study is from the area of humanities - psychological diagnostics is considered and a linguistic fuzzy model for the interpretation of outputs of multidimensional questionnaires is suggested. The issue of the quality of data in mathematical classification models is also studied here. A modification of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) method is presented to reflect variable quality of data instances in the validation set during classifier performance assessment. Twelve publications on which the author participated are appended as a third part of this thesis. These summarize the mathematical results and provide a closer insight into the issues of the practicalapplications that are considered in the second part of the thesis.

The Cycle Times of Working Capital: Financial Value Chain Analysis Method

Interest towards working capital management increased among practitioners and researchers because the financial crisis of 2008 caused the deterioration of the general financial situation. The importance of managing working capital effectively increased dramatically during the financial crisis. On one hand, companies highlighted the importance of working capital management as part of short-term financial management to overcome funding difficulties. On the other hand, in academia, it has been highlighted the need to analyze working capital management from a wider perspective namely from the value chain perspective. Previously, academic articles mostly discussed working capital management from a company-centered perspective. The objective of this thesis was to put working capital management in a wider and more academic perspective and present case studies of the value chains of industries as instrumental in theoretical contributions and practical contributions as complementary to theoretical contributions and conclusions. The principal assumption of this thesis is that selffinancing of value chains can be established through effective working capital management. Thus, the thesis introduces the financial value chain analysis method which is employed in the empirical studies. The effectiveness of working capital management of the value chains is studied through the cycle time of working capital. The financial value chain analysis method employed in this study is designed for considering value chain level phenomena. This method provides a holistic picture of the value chain through financial figures. It extends the value chain analysis to the industry level. Working capital management is studied by the cash conversion cycle that measures the length (days) of time a company has funds tied up in working capital, starting from the payment of purchases to the supplier and ending when remittance of sales is received from the customers. The working capital management practices employed in the automotive, pulp and paper and information and communication technology industries have been studied in this research project. Additionally, the Finnish pharmaceutical industry is studied to obtain a deeper understanding of the working capital management of the value chain. The results indicate that the cycle time of working capital is constant in the value chain context over time. The cash conversion cycle of automotive, pulp and paper, and ICT industries are on average 70, 60 and 40 days, respectively. The difference is mainly a consequence of the different cycle time of inventories. The financial crisis of 2008 affected the working capital management of the industries similarly. Both the cycle time of accounts receivable and accounts payable increased between 2008 and 2009. The results suggest that the companies of the automotive, pulp and paper and ICT value chains were not able to self-finance. Results do not indicate the improvement of value chains position in regard to working capital management either. The findings suggest that companies operating in the Finnish pharmaceutical industry are interested in developing their own working capital management, but collaboration with the value chain partners is not considered interesting. Competition no longer occurs between individual companies, but between value chains. Therefore the financial value chain analysis method introduced in this thesis has the potential to support value chains in improving their competitiveness.

Yrityksen vaihto-omaisuustavoitteet kunnossapidon näkökulmasta

Varaosavarastoihin kohdistuu entistä enemmän samoja vaihto-omaisuuden hallinnan vaatimuksia kuin raaka-aine ja lopputuotevarastoihin. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten kunnossapito-organisaatio voi vastata näihin tavoitteisiin heikentämättä koneiden ja laitteiden teknistä käytettävyyttä ja lisäämättä riskiä tuotannon menetyksille. Kirjallisuudessa on esitetty suuri joukko eri lähtökohdista kehitettyjä analysointimalleja ja varastonpitopolitiikoita. Niiden avulla varaosia voidaan jakaa eri luokkiin ja niiden muodostamaa kokonaisuutta hallita. Teoriaosiossa on suoritettu kirjallisuuskatsaus käytetyimpiin menetelmiin ja tapaustutkimuksiin. Empiiriaosiossa menetelmien soveltuvuutta tutkittiin käytännössä. Tiedonkeruussa käytettiin case-yrityksen dokumentteja ja tietojärjestelmistä saatavaa tietoa, sekä havainnointia ja avoimia haastatteluita. Tutkimuksen tuloksena havaittiin merkittävä kehityspotentiaali, jonka hyödyntämiseksi saatiin määriteltyä tarpeisiin ja tutkimuksen lähtökohtana olleeseen viitekehykseen sopivat analysointi- ja varastonhallintamenetelmät. Varastokokonaisuuden hallintapolitiikka ehdotettiin lisättäväksi osaksi laatujärjestelmää. Sen avulla menetelmien johdonmukainen noudattaminen ja ohjeiden ajan tasalla pitäminen toteutuvat myös käytännössä.

Strateginen suorituskyvyn mittaaminen ja -johtaminen muutostilanteessa - Case: Rahoitusyhtiö, keskijohdon näkökulma

Tapaustutkimus strategisen suorituskyvyn mittaamisesta ja -johtamisesta rahoitusyhtiössä.

Cross-border transmission capacity development – Experiences from the Nordic electricity markets

The liberalisation of the wholesale electricity markets has been considered an efficient way to organise the markets. In Europe, the target is to liberalise and integrate the common European electricity markets. However, insufficient transmission capacity between the market areas hampers the integration, and therefore, new investments are required. Again, massive transmission capacity investments are not usually easy to carry through. This doctoral dissertation aims at elaborating on critical determinants required to deliver the necessary transmission capacity investments. The Nordic electricity market is used as an illustrative example. This study suggests that changes in the governance structure have affected the delivery of Nordic cross-border investments. In addition, the impacts of not fully delivered investments are studied in this doctoral dissertation. An insufficient transmission network can degrade the market uniformity and may also cause a need to split the market into smaller submarkets. This may have financial impacts on market actors when the targeted efficient sharing of resources is not met and even encourage gaming. The research methods applied in this doctoral dissertation are mainly empirical ranging from a Delphi study to case studies and numerical calculations.

Effects of internationalization on packaging decisions of manufacturing companies

The world has witnessed a great deal of globalization and a rise in international activities in recent years compared to decades ago. This has contributed to an upsurge in competition among manufacturing firms resulting in the use of different marketing strategies to survive. Packaging is one of the tools that has been used by marketers to make products different and appealing to both local and international customers. The purpose of this research work was to investigate more on packaging as a marketing tool and how internationalization affects the decisions management makes in relation to it. To this effect, a qualitative research was conducted using five manufacturing companies as case studies and data collected through semi-structured interviews and also personal observation. Secondary sources were also used in order to get deeper insight into the case companies under study. The study revealed that there are many advantages that internationalization provides firms. The general revelations made by the firms that were researched did not point to a negative impact of internationalization on their packaging decisions. Internationalization has provided positive improvements on their packaging and made them more competitive. This proves that for packaging decisions to improve better, one key enabler will be exposure to the international environment since it provides a wider array of options for package improvements for firms.

Suitability of LiDAR technology for forest inventory in Russia

LiDAR is an advanced remote sensing technology with many applications, including forest inventory. The most common type is ALS (airborne laser scanning). The method is successfully utilized in many developed markets, where it is replacing traditional forest inventory methods. However, it is innovative for Russian market, where traditional field inventory dominates. ArboLiDAR is a forest inventory solution that engages LiDAR, color infrared imagery, GPS ground control plots and field sample plots, developed by Arbonaut Ltd. This study is an industrial market research for LiDAR technology in Russia focused on customer needs. Russian forestry market is very attractive, because of large growing stock volumes. It underwent drastic changes in 2006, but it is still in transitional stage. There are several types of forest inventory, both with public and private funding. Private forestry enterprises basically need forest inventory in two cases – while making coupe demarcation before timber harvesting and as a part of forest management planning, that is supposed to be done every ten years on the whole leased territory. The study covered 14 companies in total that include private forestry companies with timber harvesting activities, private forest inventory providers, state subordinate companies and forestry software developer. The research strategy is multiple case studies with semi-structured interviews as the main data collection technique. The study focuses on North-West Russia, as it is the most developed Russian region in forestry. The research applies the Voice of the Customer (VOC) concept to elicit customer needs of Russian forestry actors and discovers how these needs are met. It studies forest inventory methods currently applied in Russia and proposes the model of method comparison, based on Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach, mainly on Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Required product attributes are classified in accordance with Kano model. The answer about suitability of LiDAR technology is ambiguous, since many details should be taken into account.

Aging policy: a case study of co-ordination in Canadian governments

ABSTRACT Canada is an aging society. The number of people aged sixty-five and over is rising, while the number of people under twenty is declining. These two concurrent changes in the age structure have produced a sh~ft in the demographic composition of Canada which is commonly referred to as the aging phenomenon. Regardless of whether or not the number of people under twenty continues to decline, the number of elderly in Canada will almost double over the next twenty years. This rapidly growing elderly clientele will doubtless have an impact on Canadian governments. Federal, provincial and municipal governments are presently providing a variety of programs that have a special bearing on the aged and most senior citizens are beneficiaries of one or more of these programs. The ramifications of a rapidly growing elderly clientele are obvious. In order to cope with the impact of a significant increase in the number of elderly persons, the development and implementation of aging policy must be co-ordinated at each level of government and between and among levels of government. If aging policy is not co-ordinated, the results are likely to be: inappropriate policy decisions; duplication and overlap; and, ineffective and irresponsive services. No one benefits from these results. The need for co-ordination is apparent. The purpose of this thesis is to examine existing governmental efforts to co-ordinate policy in the field of aging. These efforts are examined by focusing on interactions directed at co-ordination between and among major actors in aging policy. A framework is used to structure the description and analysis of these interactions. The variables of formalisation and intensity and the concept of power are instrumental in analysing interactions for co-ordination. The underlying intent of this thesis is to discover some of the main gaps in existing governmental efforts to co~ordinate aging policy. Gaps are, in fact, discovered. Several explanations for the existence of gaps in interactions for co-ordination are discussed. A major hypothesis involving a relationship between a bureaucratic form of organisation and interactions for coordination is suggested. Finally, three recommendations for improving co-ordination in aging policy are offered.

Forsaking all others: towards a new model of nationalism utilizing the case study of former Yugoslavia

Many people would like to believe that nationalism is a thing of the past, a dinosaur belonging to some bygone, uncivilized era. Such a belief is not borne out by recent history, however. Nationalism occupies the political forum with as much force as ever. Yet, in many ways, it remains a mystery to us. The purpose of this study is to explore individual motivations involved in the rise of nationalism, in addition to the role of structural factors. The linkage employed in this exploration is the psychosocial phenomenon of self-identity, including emotions and self-esteem. We demonstrate how individual, socially-constructed self-identity accounts for why some people embrace nationalism while others eschew it. The methodology employed was theoretical and historical analyses of secondary sources and indepth interviews with subjects who had some connection with former Yugoslavia, the country utilized to test the new model. Our analyses yielded the result that current conceptualizations of nationalism from an exclusively macro or micro perspective are unsatisfactory; we require a more comprehensive approach wherein the two perspectives are integrated. Such an integration necessitates a bridge: hence, our new model, which rests on the psychosocial premise, offers a more useful conceptual tool for the understanding of nationalism. We conclude that nationalism is first and foremost a matter relating to individual social self-identity which takes place within a particular context where oppositional forces emerge from structural factors and our membership in a particular group becomes paramount.

Moving from values inaction to values-in-action : an exploration of how values can be managed intentionally by national sports organizations

The study examined the intentional use of National Sport Organizations' (NSOs) stated values. Positive Organizational Scholarship (POS) was applied to an Appreciative Inquiry (AI) approach of interviewing NSO senior leaders. One intention of this research was to foster a connection between academia and practitioners, and in so doing highlight the gap between values inaction and values-in-action. Data were collected from nine NSOs through multiple-case studies analysis of interview transcripts, websites, and constitutional statements. Results indicated that while the NSOs operated from a Management by Objectives (MBO) approach they were interested in exploring how Management by Values (MBV) might improve their organization's performance. Eleven themes from the case studies analysis contributed to the development of a framework. The 4-1 framework described how an NSO can progress through different stages by becoming more intentional in how they use their values. Another finding included deepening our understanding of how values are experienced within the NSO and then transferred across the entire sport. Participants also spoke about the tension that arises among their NSO' s values as well as the dominant values held by funding agents. This clash of values needs to be addressed before the tension escalates. Finally, participants expressed a desire to learn more about how values can be used more intentionally to further their organization's purpose. As such, strategies for intentionally leveraging values are also suggested. Further research should explore how helpful the 4-1 framework can be to NSOs leaders who are in the process of identifying or renewing their organization's values.

The role of NGOs in global health research for development

Affiliation: Hélène Delisle: Département de nutrition, Faculté de médecine, Université de Montréal

Socialisation du salariat professionnel et transmission de la culture dans les organisations syndicales québécoises

Français : Partant de la question du renouvellement de la main-d’œuvre québécoise, ce mémoire s’intéresse aux salariés professionnels des organisations syndicales québécoises. Ces dernières se sont dotées d’un important salariat professionnel dont le renouvellement en cours ou à prévoir suppose des défis importants, notamment à propos de la transmission de la culture organisationnelle. Ainsi, ce mémoire portera sur la socialisation des salariés professionnels des organisations syndicales québécoises à partir de quatre études de cas (FTQ, Syndicat des Métallos, CSN et FIQ). Il sera notamment question des pratiques de gestion de personnel de ces organisations liées au transfert de la culture, soit les pratiques de socialisation et de recrutement, de la formalisation de ces pratiques et de leur contrôle. Les résultats permettent de mettre en évidence les rapports entre la structure administrative des organisations syndicales et le modèle de socialisation des salariés professionnels nouvellement embauchés y ayant cours. De plus, bien que la tendance va en s’amplifiant, les pratiques de socialisation, à l’instar des autres pratiques de gestion de personnel en milieu syndical, demeurent peu formalisées. Enfin, les résultats permettent également de constater que le contrôle des dirigeants syndicaux sur la transmission de la culture aux professionnels est relativement faible comparativement à celui des pairs.

L’influence de la gouvernance sur la capacité de changement du système de soins : l’exemple de l’implantation des groupes de médecine de famille

Cette thèse s’intéresse à la gouvernance de changements en contextes pluralistes. Nous souhaitons mieux comprendre l’exercice de gouvernance déployé pour développer et implanter un changement par le biais d’une politique publique visant la transformation d’organisations pluralistes. Pour ce faire, nous étudions l’émergence et l’implantation de la politique encadrant la création de groupes de médecine de famille (GMF) à l’aide d’études de cas correspondant à cinq GMF. Les cas sont informés par plus de cents entrevues réalisées en deux vagues ainsi que par une analyse documentaire et des questionnaires portant sur l’organisation du GMF. Trois articles constituent le cœur de la thèse. Dans le premier article, nous proposons une analyse de l’émergence et de l’implantation de la politique GMF à l’aide d’une perspective processuelle et contextuelle développée à partir du champ du changement organisationnel, tel qu’étudié en théorie des organisations. Les résultats démontrent que la gestion du changement en contexte pluraliste est liée à de multiples processus prescrits et construits. Nous avons qualifié ce phénomène de régulation de l’action social (regulation of collective action). La conceptualisation développée et les résultats de l’analyse permettent de mieux comprendre les interactions entre les processus, le contexte et la nature du changement. Le deuxième article propose une conceptualisation de la gouvernance permettant l’étude de la gouvernance en contextes pluralistes. La conceptualisation de la gouvernance proposée tire profit de plusieurs courants des sciences politiques et de l’administration publique. Elle considère la gouvernance comme un ensemble de processus auxquels participent plusieurs acteurs détenant des capacités variables de gouvernance. Ces processus émergent des actions des acteurs et des instruments qu’ils mobilisent. Ils permettent la réalisation des fonctions de la gouvernance (la prospective, la prise de décisions ainsi que la régulation) assurant la coordination de l’action collective. Le troisième article propose, comme le premier, une analyse de l’émergence et de l’implantation de la politique mais cette fois à l’aide de la conceptualisation de la gouvernance développée dans l’article précédent. Nos résultats permettent des apprentissages particuliers concernant les différentes fonctions de la gouvernance et les processus permettant leur réalisation. Ils révèlent l’influence du pluralisme sur les différentes fonctions de gouvernance. Dans un tel contexte, la fonction de régulation s’exerce de façon indirecte et est étroitement liée aux fonctions de prospective et de prise de décisions. Ces fonctions rendent possibles les apprentissages et le développement de consensus nécessaires à l’action collective. L’analyse des actions et des instruments a permis de mieux comprendre les multiples formes qu’ils prennent, en lien avec les contextes dans lesquels ils sont mobilisés. Les instruments indirects permettent les interactions (p. ex. commission d’étude, comité ou réunion) et la formalisation d’ententes entre acteurs (p. ex. des contrats ou des protocoles de soins). Ils se sont révélés fondamentaux pour coordonner les différents acteurs participant à la gouvernance, et ce tant aux niveaux organisationnel qu’inter organisationnel. Les résultats démontrent que les deux conceptualisations contribuent à l’étude de la gouvernance du changement. Nous avons développé deux perspectives inspirées par les sciences politiques, l’administration publique et la théorie des organisations et les analyses qu’elles ont permises ont révélé leur complémentarité. Les résultats permettent de mieux comprendre les processus impliqués dans un tel changement ainsi que leur lien avec les efforts déployés aux différents niveaux par les acteurs mobilisant leurs capacités de gouvernance pour influencer et construire la politique GMF.

La gouvernance des projets d’architecture : une typologie de la multi-organisation temporaire

Les débats éthiques sur l’architecture ont traditionnellement abordé trois thématiques récurrentes : la beauté, la solidité et l’utilité de l’œuvre architecturale. Plus récemment, les nouvelles connaissances provenant du domaine de la gestion des projets et du développement durable ont apporté d’importantes contributions à la compréhension de la gouvernance de projets. Cependant, la démarche de réalisation des projets d’architecture est tributaire des caractéristiques propres à l’industrie du bâtiment; une industrie qui fonctionne grâce à la mise en place d’équipes temporaires formées par des organisations hautement spécialisées. L’analyse systémique d’études de cas permet d’identifier la complexité des équipes qui interviennent dans les projets d’architecture. Nous examinons dans cet article trois caractéristiques de l’industrie du bâtiment : (i) la complexité organisationnelle du donneur d’ouvrage, (ii) l’influence des parties prenantes, et (iii) les divers niveaux de proximité entre l’architecte et les usagers. L’identification des diverses configurations organisationnelles met en évidence les effets de ces caractéristiques sur les relations formelles et informelles entre l’architecte et les donneurs d’ouvrage ainsi que celles entre toutes les parties prenantes. L’architecte est contraint de travailler sur un projet qui devient, de plus en plus, l’objet de négociation entre les diverses parties prenantes. Face à ce défi, il doit tenir compte de la complexité des relations entre tous les acteurs au sein du système social du projet et créer les scénarios adéquats à la participation, à la négociation et aux échanges entre eux.

Étude exploratoire sur les espaces équivoques, leurs dynamiques d’appropriation et les enjeux urbanistiques à Montréal

Cette recherche s’intéresse aux espaces équivoques, soit des espaces jugés ambigus en raison des modes d’appropriation qu’on y retrouve. Par un processus heuristique et à l’aide d’une double étude de cas exploratoire, qui emprunte des méthodes de recherche ethnographiques, cette recherche a pour objectif de mieux caractériser les espaces équivoques. Les deux espaces considérés, tous deux situés dans la partie nord de l’arrondissement du Plateau-Mont-Royal à Montréal, sont un terrain vague informellement appelé le Parc sans Nom et une friche industrielle informellement appelée le Champ des Possibles. Les positions des gestionnaires municipaux et des usagers des deux sites seront analysées selon trois dimensions : les contraintes physiques, les mesures coercitives et les perceptions du risque et du potentiel de conflits. Les résultats issus de ces analyses permettent de constater que les espaces équivoques émergent par processus de co-construction. Ces résultats permettent également de soulever des pistes de réflexion sur les rapports entre les individus et l’espace urbain.