(Table 2) Survivorship of transplanted seedlings of Picea glauca inside and outside three tree islands in 1994, 1995, 2009 and after 15 years

The northern boundary of boreal forest and the ranges of tree species are expected to shift northward in response to climate warming, which will result in a decrease in the albedo of areas currently covered by tundra vegetation, an increase in terrestrial carbon sequestration, and an alteration of biodiversity in the current Low Arctic. Central to the prediction of forest expansion is an increase in the reproductive capacity and establishment of individual trees. We assessed cone production, seed viability, and transplanted seedling success of Picea glauca (Moench.) Voss. (white spruce) in the early 1990s and again in the late 2000s at four forest stand sites and eight tree island sites (clonal populations beyond present treeline) in the Mackenzie Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. Over the past 20 years, average temperatures in this region have increased by 0.9 °C. This area has the northernmost forest-tundra ecotone in North America and is one of the few circumpolar regions where the northern limit of conifer trees reaches the Arctic Ocean. We found that cone production and seed viability did not change between the two periods of examination and that both variables decreased northward across the forest-tundra ecotone. Nevertheless, white spruce individuals at the northern limit of the forest-tundra ecotone produced viable seeds. Furthermore, transplanted seedlings were able to survive in the northernmost sites for 15 years, but there were no signs of natural regeneration. These results indicate that if climatic conditions continue to ameliorate, reproductive output will likely increase, but seedling establishment and forest expansion within the forest-tundra of this region is unlikely to occur without the availability of suitable recruitment sites. Processes that affect the availability of recruitment sites are likely to be important elsewhere in the circumpolar ecotone, and should be incorporated into models and predictions of climate change and its effects on the northern forest-tundra ecotone.

Stable carbon and oxygen isotope records of Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi in DSDP and ODP sites in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean

Carbon isotopic records from benthic foraminifera are used to map patterns of deep ocean circulation between 3 and 2 million years ago, the interval when significant northern hemisphere glaciation began. The delta18O and delta13C data from four Atlantic sites (552, 607, 610, and 704) and one Pacific site (677) show that global cooling over this interval was associated with increased suppression of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation. However, the relative strength of NADW production was always greater than is observed during late Pleistocene glaciations when extreme decreases in NADW are observed in the deep North Atlantic. Our data indicate that an increase in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient associated with the onset of northern hemisphere glaciation did not intensify deepwater production in the North Atlantic but rather the opposite occurred. This is not unexpected as it is the "warm high-salinity" characteristic, rather than the "low temperature", of thermocline waters that is critical to the deepwater formation process in this region today.