A method for systematically pooling data in very early stage construction price forecasting

Client owners usually need an estimate or forecast of their likely building costs in advance of detailed design in order to confirm the financial feasibility of their projects. Because of their timing in the project life cycle, these early stage forecasts are characterized by the minimal amount of information available concerning the new (target) project to the point that often only its size and type are known. One approach is to use the mean contract sum of a sample, or base group, of previous projects of a similar type and size to the project for which the estimate is needed. Bernoulli’s law of large numbers implies that this base group should be as large as possible. However, increasing the size of the base group inevitably involves including projects that are less and less similar to the target project. Deciding on the optimal number of base group projects is known as the homogeneity or pooling problem. A method of solving the homogeneity problem is described involving the use of closed form equations to compare three different sampling arrangements of previous projects for their simulated forecasting ability by a cross-validation method, where a series of targets are extracted, with replacement, from the groups and compared with the mean value of the projects in the base groups. The procedure is then demonstrated with 450 Hong Kong projects (with different project types: Residential, Commercial centre, Car parking, Social community centre, School, Office, Hotel, Industrial, University and Hospital) clustered into base groups according to their type and size.

The promotion of sustainability agenda for facilities management through developing knowledge capabilities

The growing awareness of sustainability issues around the world has put extensive pressure on the construction industry to improve its sustainable practice. Sustainability principles need to be applied to not just during design and construction phase but the entire life cycle of a construction project. Compared to sustainability endeavours on earlier development phases, the pace to implement sustainability agenda during the operation and maintenance phase has not been as fast during past practices of facilities management (FM). Literature study suggests that sustainable practices in FM activities can bring substantial benefits such as reducing energy consumptions and waste, while increasing productivity, financial return and standing in the community. It also suggests several barriers which inhibit the implementation of sustainability in FM practices, including the lack of knowledge, discrepancy between capability and skills, and unwillingness of the FM personnel and organizations to adapt to new routines in order to implement sustainability in their business. The capabilities of FM personnel and organizations were regarded as the key enablers in managing sustainability knowledge. In a sustainable development context, capabilities are vital to the fostering of competency in an organization to innovate in a more sustainable way and support the agenda in an organization. Additionally, research which focused on people’s capabilities and skills is still lagging behind the efforts to develop guidelines, technical manuals and knowledge portals. Therefore, it is beneficial to explore the issues of capabilities in dealing with the implementation of sustainable practices in FM. This paper introduces a research project which is aimed at establishing a knowledge capabilities framework for promoting sustainability measures in FM practices. It will explore and highlight challenges to integrate sustainability as well as the personnel and organizational capabilities that are vital in dealing with knowledge issues in implementing sustainability agenda in FM practices. The expected outcome of this research has the potential to further sustainability endeavours in FM practices, while providing a useful source of knowledge to the FM personnel and organizations.

Current speculation in costing approach for Malaysian residential construction

The construction industry has been under pressure for many years to produce economical buildings which offer value for money, not only during the construction phase, but more importantly, during the full life of the building. Whole Life Cycle Costing (WLCC) is a relatively new concept for the construction industry especially on residential development and particularly for Malaysia. Discussing the speculation in using WLCC for the Malaysian residential constructions is the aim for this paper and it is one of the research questions on my research. This paper also wants to gather more speculation that may involve through others experienced. Basically, this paper is written to facilitate the current or future individual which will involve in residential property development sector with a new sensible approach to what at times seems impressively confusing especially in simplifying the operations and maintenance services and rehabilitation as well.

Learning landscapes 2.0 : warning - assembly required

Twenty first century learners operate in organic, immersive environments. A pedagogy of student-centred learning is not a recipe for rooms. A contemporary learning environment is like a landscape that grows, morphs, and responds to the pressures of the context and micro-culture. There is no single adaptable solution, nor a suite of off-the-shelf answers; propositions must be customisable and infinitely variable. They must be indeterminate and changeable; based on the creation of learning places, not restrictive or constraining spaces. A sustainable solution will be un-fixed, responsive to the life cycle of the components and materials, able to be manipulated by the users; it will create and construct its own history. Learning occurs as formal education with situational knowledge structures, but also as informal learning, active learning, blended learning social learning, incidental learning, and unintended learning. These are not spatial concepts but socio-cultural patterns of discovery. Individual learning requirements must run free and need to be accommodated as the learner sees fit. The spatial solution must accommodate and enable a full array of learning situations. It is a system not an object. Three major components: 1. The determinate landscape: in-situ concrete 'plate' that is permanent. It predates the other components of the system and remains as a remnant/imprint/fossil after the other components of the system have been relocated. It is a functional learning landscape in its own right; enabling a variety of experiences and activities. 2. The indeterminate landscape: a kit of pre-fabricated 2-D panels assembled in a unique manner at each site to suit the client and context. Manufactured to the principles of design-for-disassembly. A symbiotic barnacle like system that attaches itself to the existing infrastructure through the determinate landscape which acts as a fast growth rhizome. A carapace of protective panels, infinitely variable to create enclosed, semi-enclosed, and open learning places. 3. The stations: pre-fabricated packages of highly-serviced space connected through the determinate landscape. Four main types of stations; wet-room learning centres, dry-room learning centres, ablutions, and low-impact building services. Entirely customised at the factory and delivered to site. The stations can be retro-fitted to suit a new context during relocation. Principles of design for disassembly: material principles • use recycled and recyclable materials • minimise the number of types of materials • no toxic materials • use lightweight materials • avoid secondary finishes • provide identification of material types component principles • minimise/standardise the number of types of components • use mechanical not chemical connections • design for use of common tools and equipment • provide easy access to all components • make component size to suite means of handling • provide built in means of handling • design to realistic tolerances • use a minimum number of connectors and a minimum number of types system principles • design for durability and repeated use • use prefabrication and mass production • provide spare components on site • sustain all assembly and material information

A prototype system dynamic model for assessing the sustainability of construction projects

There is a worldwide demand for an increasingly sustainable built environment. This has resulted in the need for a more accurate evaluation of the level of sustainability of construction projects. To do this it involves the development of better measurement and benchmarking methods. One approach is to use a theoretical model to assess construction projects in terms of their sustainable development value (SDV) and sustainable development ability (SDA) for implementation in the project life cycle, where SDA measures the contribution of a project to development sustainability and as a major criterion for assessing its feasibility. This paper develops an improved SDA prototype model that incorporates the effects of dynamical factors on project sustainability. This involves the introduction of two major factors concerning technological advancement and changes in people's perceptions. A case study is used to demonstrate the procedures involved in simulation and modeling, one outcome of which is to demonstrate the greater influence of technological advancement on project sustainability than changes in perception.

Application of multi-criteria decision making methods to compression ignition engine efficiency and gaseous, particulate and greenhouse gas emissions

Compression ignition (CI) engine design is subject to many constraints which presents a multi-criteria optimisation problem that the engine researcher must solve. In particular, the modern CI engine must not only be efficient, but must also deliver low gaseous, particulate and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions so that its impact on urban air quality, human health, and global warming are minimised. Consequently, this study undertakes a multi-criteria analysis which seeks to identify alternative fuels, injection technologies and combustion strategies that could potentially satisfy these CI engine design constraints. Three datasets are analysed with the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations and Geometrical Analysis for Interactive Aid (PROMETHEE-GAIA) algorithm to explore the impact of 1): an ethanol fumigation system, 2): alternative fuels (20 % biodiesel and synthetic diesel) and alternative injection technologies (mechanical direct injection and common rail injection), and 3): various biodiesel fuels made from 3 feedstocks (i.e. soy, tallow, and canola) tested at several blend percentages (20-100 %) on the resulting emissions and efficiency profile of the various test engines. The results show that moderate ethanol substitutions (~20 % by energy) at moderate load, high percentage soy blends (60-100 %), and alternative fuels (biodiesel and synthetic diesel) provide an efficiency and emissions profile that yields the most “preferred” solutions to this multi-criteria engine design problem. Further research is, however, required to reduce Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) emissions with alternative fuels, and to deliver technologies that do not significantly reduce the median diameter of particle emissions.

Understanding women’s working lives

The last 50 years have produced multiple changes in our understanding of the place of paid and unpaid work in women’s lives. A growing theoretical, research and practical literature attests to the attention being directed to the a broader understanding of women’s working lives. It is more than thirty years since the groundbreaking paper by Fitzgerald and Crites’ (1980) on the career psychology of women. Prior to that time women’s careers were seen as primarily home based or “in relation to” men’s careers. In 1975 Osipow had commented on the lack of usefulness of traditional theories of career behaviour for women in that several basic assumptions on which they were founded were not relevant. For example, traditional career theory is based on the assumption that an array of career choices is available to all individuals, who are in turn motivated to pursue their personal interests in making certain choices. A comment on the state of vocational psychology in relation to class made by Tyler in 1967 highlights the inadequacy of application to women: - "much of what we know about the stages through which an individual passes as he prepares to find his place in the world of work might appropriately be labelled the vocational development of white middle class males" (p. 62; original italics). Gilligan's (1979) classic article entitled "woman's place in man's life cycle" emphasised the restriction of many theories of psychology in understanding women's lives as they implicitly adopted male as norm and failed to account for the unique social and family situation of women and the related demands on them...

An evidence-informed strategy to prevent osteoporosis in Australia

Osteoporosis imposes a tremendous burden on Australia : 1.2 million Australians have osteoporosis and 6.3 million have Osteopenia. In the 2007-08 financial year, 82000 Australians suffered fragility fractures, of Which >17000 were hip fractures. In the 2000-01 financial year, direct costs were estimated at $1.9 billion per year and an additional $5.6 billion on indirect costs. Osteoporosis was designated a National Health Priority Area in 2002; however, implementation of national plans has not yet matched the rhetoric in terms of urgency. Building healthy bones throughout life, the Osteoporosis Australia strategy to prevent osteoporosis throughout the life cycle, presents an evidence-informed set of recommendations for consumers, health care professionals and policymakers. The strategy was adopted by consensus at the Osteoporosis Australia Summit in Sydney, 20 October 2011. Primary objectives throughout the life cycle are: to maximise peak bone mass during childhood and adolescence to prevent premature bone loss and improve or maintain muscle mass, strength and functional capacity in healthy adults to prevent and treat osteoporosis in order to minimise the risk of suffering fragility fractures, and reduce falls risk, in older people. The recommendations focus on three affordable and important interventions to ensure people have adequate calcium intake, vitamin D levels and appropriate, physical activity throughout their lives. Recommendations relevant to all stages of life include: daily dietary calcium intakes should be consistent with Australian and New Zealand guidelines serum levels of vitamin D in the general population should be above 50 nmol/L in winter or early spring for optimal bone health regular weight-bearing physical activity, Muscle strengthening exercises and challenging balance/ mobility activities should be conducted in a safe environment.

A public asset management framework for Indonesian local governments

The decentralisation reform in Indonesia has mandated the Central Government to transfer some functions and responsibilities to local governments including the transfer of human resources, assets and budgets. Local governments became giant asset holders almost overnight and most were ill prepared to handle these transformations. Assets were transferred without analysing local government need, ability or capability to manage the assets and no local government was provided with an asset management framework. Therefore, the aim of this research is to develop a Public Asset Management Framework for provincial governments in Indonesia, especially for infrastructure and real property assets. This framework will enable provincial governments to develop integrated asset management procedures throughout asset‘s lifecycle. Achieving the research aim means answering the following three research questions; 1) How do provincial governments in Indonesia currently manage their public assets? 2) What factors influence the provincial governments in managing these public assets? 3) How is a Public Asset Management Framework developed that is specific for the Indonesian provincial governments‘ situation? This research applied case studies approach after a literature review; document retrieval, interviews and observations were collated. Data was collected in June 2009 (preliminary data collection) and January to July 2010 in the major eastern Indonesian provinces. Once the public asset management framework was developed, a focus group was used to verify the framework. Results are threefold and indicate that Indonesian provincial governments need to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of current practice of public asset management in order to improve public service quality. The second result shows that the 5 major concerns that influence the local government public asset management processes are asset identification and inventory systems, public asset holding, asset guidance and legal arrangements, asset management efficiency and effectiveness, and, human resources and their organisational arrangements. The framework was then applied to assets already transferred to local governments and so included a system of asset identification and a needs analysis to classify the importance of these assets to local governments, their functions and responsibilities in delivering public services. Assets that support local government functions and responsibilities will then be managed using suitable asset lifecycle processes. Those categorised as surplus assets should be disposed. Additionally functions and responsibilities that do not need an asset solution should be performed directly by local governments. These processes must be measured using performance measurement indicators. All these stages should be guided and regulated with sufficient laws and regulations. Constant improvements to the quality and quantity of human resources hold an important role in successful public asset management processes. This research focuses on developing countries, and contributes toward the knowledge of a Public Asset Management Framework at local government level, particularly Indonesia. The framework provides local governments a foundation to improve their effectiveness and efficiency in managing public assets, which could lead to improved public service quality. This framework will ensure that the best decisions are made throughout asset decision ownership and provide a better asset life cycle process, leading to selection of the most appropriate asset, improve its acquisition and delivery process, optimise asset performance, and provide an appropriate disposal program.

Climate change adaptation for public buildings management : stakeholder roles and responsibilities

Climate change is expected to increase earth’s temperatures and consequently result in more frequent extreme weather events such as cyclones, storms, droughts and floods and rising global sea levels. This phenomenon will affect all assets. This paper discusses the impact of climate change and its consequences on public buildings. Public building management encompasses the building life cycle from planning, procurement, operation, repair and maintenance and building disposal. This paper recommends climate change adaptation strategies to be integrated into public building management. The roles and responsibilities of asset managers and users are discussed within the framework of planning and implementation of public building management and the integration of climate change adaptation strategies. A key point is that climate change can induce premature obsolescence of public buildings and services, which will increase the maintenance and refurbishment costs. This in turn will affect the life cycle cost of the building. Furthermore, a business continuity plan is essential for public building management in the context of disasters. The paper also highlights the significant role that the occupants of public buildings can play in the development and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies.

Unpacking user relations in an emerging ubiquitous computing environment : introducing the bystander

The move towards technological ubiquity is allowing a more idiosyncratic and dynamic working environment to emerge that may result in the restructuring of information communication technologies, and changes in their use through different user groups' actions. Taking a ‘practice’ lens to human agency, we explore the evolving roles of, and relationships between these user groups and their appropriation of emergent technologies by drawing upon Lamb and Kling's social actor framework. To illustrate our argument, we draw upon a study of a UK Fire Brigade that has introduced a variety of technologies in an attempt to move towards embracing mobile and ubiquitous computing. Our analysis of the enactment of such technologies reveals that Bystanders, a group yet to be taken as the central unit of analysis in information systems research, or considered in practice, are emerging as important actors. The research implications of our work relate to the need to further consider Bystanders in deployments other than those that are mobile and ubiquitous. For practice, we suggest that Bystanders require consideration in the systems development life cycle, particularly in terms of design and education in processes of use.

Second international workshop on theory and applications of process visualization

The representation of business process models has been a continuing research topic for many years now. However, many process model representations have not developed beyond minimally interactive 2D icon-based representations of directed graphs and networks, with little or no annotation for information overlays. In addition, very few of these representations have undergone a thorough analysis or design process with reference to psychological theories on data and process visualization. This dearth of visualization research, we believe, has led to problems with BPM uptake in some organizations, as the representations can be difficult for stakeholders to understand, and thus remains an open research question for the BPM community. In addition, business analysts and process modeling experts themselves need visual representations that are able to assist with key BPM life cycle tasks in the process of generating optimal solutions. With the rise of desktop computers and commodity mobile devices capable of supporting rich interactive 3D environments, we believe that much of the research performed in computer human interaction, virtual reality, games and interactive entertainment have much potential in areas of BPM; to engage, provide insight, and to promote collaboration amongst analysts and stakeholders alike. We believe this is a timely topic, with research emerging in a number of places around the globe, relevant to this workshop. This is the second TAProViz workshop being run at BPM. The intention this year is to consolidate on the results of last year's successful workshop by further developing this important topic, identifying the key research topics of interest to the BPM visualization community.

Improving ecological performance of industrialized building systems in Malaysia

For construction stakeholders to fully embrace sustainability, its long-term benefits and associated risks need to be identified through holistic approaches. Consensus among key stakeholders is very important to the improvement of the ecological performance of industrialized building systems (IBS), a building construction method gaining momentum in Malaysia. A questionnaire survey examines the relative significance of 16 potentially important sustainability factors for IBS applications. To present possible solutions,semi-structured interviews solicit views from experienced IBS practitioners, representing the professions involved. Three most critical factors agreed by key stakeholders are material consumption, waste generation and waste disposal. Using SWOT analysis, the positive and negative aspects of these factors are investigated, with action plans formulated for IBS design practitioners. The SWOT analysis based guidelines have the potential to become part of IBS design briefing documents against which sustainability solutions are contemplated, selected and implemented. Existing knowledge on ecological performance issues is extended by considering the unique characteristics of IBS and identifying not only the benefits, but also the potential risks and challenges of pursuing sustainability. This is largely missing in previous research efforts. Findings to date focus on providing much-needed assistance to IBS designers, who are at the forefront of decision-making with a significant level of project influence. Ongoing work will be directed towards other project development phases and consider the inherent linkage between design decisions and subsequent sustainability deliverables in the project life cycle.

Importance of sustainability-related cost components in highway infrastructure : perspective of stakeholders in Australia

Highway infrastructure development typically requires major capital input. Unless planned properly, such requirements can cause serious financial constraints for investors. The push for sustainability adds a new dimension to the complexity of evaluating highway projects. Finding environmentally and socially responsible solutions for highway construction will improve its potential for acceptance by the society and in many instances the infrastructure's life span. Even so, the prediction and determination of a project's long-term financial viability can be a precarious exercise. Existing studies in this area have not indicated details of how to identify and deal with costs incurred in pursuing sustainability measures in highway infrastructure. This paper provides insights into the major challenges of implementing sustainability in highway project development in terms of financial concerns and obligations. It discusses the results from recent research through a literature study and a questionnaire survey of key industry stakeholders involved in highway infrastructure development. The research identified critical cost components relating to sustainability measures based on perspectives of industry stakeholders. All stakeholders believe sustainability related costs are an integral part of the decision making. However, the importance rating of these costs is relative to each stakeholder's core business objectives. This will influence the way these cost components are dealt with during the evaluation of highway investment alternatives and financial implications. This research encourages positive thinking among the highway infrastructure practitioners about sustainability. It calls for the construction industry to maximise sustainability deliverables while ensuring financial viability over the life cycle of highway infrastructure projects.

Transcription and expression of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich proteins in different stages and strains : implications for rapid diagnostic tests

Background: Although rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for Plasmodium falciparum infection that target histidine rich protein 2 (PfHRP2) are generally sensitive, their performance has been reported to be variable. One possible explanation for variable test performance is differences in expression level of PfHRP in different parasite isolates. Methods: Total RNA and protein were extracted from synchronised cultures of 7 P. falciparum lines over 5 time points of the life cycle, and from synchronised ring stages of 10 falciparum lines. Using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction, Western blot analysis and ELISA we investigated variations in the transcription and protein levels of pfhrp2, pfhrp3 and PfHRP respectively in the different parasite lines, over the parasite intraerythrocytic life cycle. Results: Transcription of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 in different parasite lines over the parasite life cycle was observed to vary relative to the control parasite K1. In some parasite lines very low transcription of these genes was observed. The peak transcription was observed in ring-stage parasites. Pfhrp2 transcription was observed to be consistently higher than pfhrp3 transcription within parasite lines. The intraerythrocytic lifecycle stage at which the peak level of protein was present varied across strains. Total protein levels were more constant relative to total mRNA transcription, however a maximum 24 fold difference in expression at ring-stage parasites relative to the K1 strain was observed. Conclusions: The levels of transcription of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3, and protein expression of PfHRP varied between different P. falciparum strains. This variation may impact on the detection sensitivity of PfHRP2-detecting RDTs.