IMILAST: a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset—the period 1989–2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.

TRY: a global database of plant traits

Plant traits – the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants and their organs – determine how primary producers respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, influence ecosystem processes and services and provide a link from species richness to ecosystem functional diversity. Trait data thus represent the raw material for a wide range of research from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology to biogeography. Here we present the global database initiative named TRY, which has united a wide range of the plant trait research community worldwide and gained an unprecedented buy-in of trait data: so far 93 trait databases have been contributed. The data repository currently contains almost three million trait entries for 69 000 out of the world's 300 000 plant species, with a focus on 52 groups of traits characterizing the vegetative and regeneration stages of the plant life cycle, including growth, dispersal, establishment and persistence. A first data analysis shows that most plant traits are approximately log-normally distributed, with widely differing ranges of variation across traits. Most trait variation is between species (interspecific), but significant intraspecific variation is also documented, up to 40% of the overall variation. Plant functional types (PFTs), as commonly used in vegetation models, capture a substantial fraction of the observed variation – but for several traits most variation occurs within PFTs, up to 75% of the overall variation. In the context of vegetation models these traits would better be represented by state variables rather than fixed parameter values. The improved availability of plant trait data in the unified global database is expected to support a paradigm shift from species to trait-based ecology, offer new opportunities for synthetic plant trait research and enable a more realistic and empirically grounded representation of terrestrial vegetation in Earth system models.

Introducing "ecoputation": a universal systems design process

A universal systems design process is specified, tested in a case study and evaluated. It links English narratives to numbers using a categorical language framework with mathematical mappings taking the place of conjunctions and numbers. The framework is a ring of English narrative words between 1 (option) and 360 (capital); beyond 360 the ring cycles again to 1. English narratives are shown to correspond to the field of fractional numbers. The process can enable the development, presentation and communication of complex narrative policy information among communities of any scale, on a software implementation known as the "ecoputer". The information is more accessible and comprehensive than that in conventional decision support, because: (1) it is expressed in narrative language; and (2) the narratives are expressed as compounds of words within the framework. Hence option generation is made more effective than in conventional decision support processes including Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, Life Cycle Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.The case study is of a participatory workshop in UK bioenergy project objectives and criteria, at which attributes were elicited in environmental, economic and social systems. From the attributes, the framework was used to derive consequences at a range of levels of precision; these are compared with the project objectives and criteria as set out in the Case for Support. The design process is to be supported by a social information manipulation, storage and retrieval system for numeric and verbal narratives attached to the "ecoputer". The "ecoputer" will have an integrated verbal and numeric operating system. Novel design source code language will assist the development of narrative policy. The utility of the program, including in the transition to sustainable development and in applications at both community micro-scale and policy macro-scale, is discussed from public, stakeholder, corporate, Governmental and regulatory perspectives.

Infection Control in design and construction work

Objective: To clarify how infection control requirements are represented, communicated, and understood in work interactions through the medical facility construction project life cycle. To assist project participants with effective infection control management by highlighting the nature of such requirements and presenting recommendations to aid practice. Background: A 4-year study regarding client requirement representation and use on National Health Service construction projects in the United Kingdom provided empirical evidence of infection control requirement communication and understanding through design and construction work interactions. Methods: An analysis of construction project resources (e.g., infection control regulations and room data sheets) was combined with semi-structured interviews with hospital client employees and design and construction professionals to provide valuable insights into the management of infection control issues. Results: Infection control requirements are representationally indistinct but also omnipresent through all phases of the construction project life cycle: Failure to recognize their nature, relevance, and significance can result in delays, stoppages, and redesign work. Construction project resources (e.g., regulatory guidance and room data sheets) can mask or obscure the meaning of infection control issues. Conclusions: A preemptive identification of issues combined with knowledge sharing activities among project stakeholders can enable infection control requirements to be properly understood and addressed. Such initiatives should also reference existing infection control regulatory guidance and advice.

ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We analyse the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) to simulate the tropical Pacific mean state and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CMIP5 multi-model ensemble displays an encouraging 30 % reduction of the pervasive cold bias in the western Pacific, but no quantum leap in ENSO performance compared to CMIP3. CMIP3 and CMIP5 can thus be considered as one large ensemble (CMIP3 + CMIP5) for multi-model ENSO analysis. The too large diversity in CMIP3 ENSO amplitude is however reduced by a factor of two in CMIP5 and the ENSO life cycle (location of surface temperature anomalies, seasonal phase locking) is modestly improved. Other fundamental ENSO characteristics such as central Pacific precipitation anomalies however remain poorly represented. The sea surface temperature (SST)-latent heat flux feedback is slightly improved in the CMIP5 ensemble but the wind-SST feedback is still underestimated by 20–50 % and the shortwave-SST feedbacks remain underestimated by a factor of two. The improvement in ENSO amplitudes might therefore result from error compensations. The ability of CMIP models to simulate the SST-shortwave feedback, a major source of erroneous ENSO in CGCMs, is further detailed. In observations, this feedback is strongly nonlinear because the real atmosphere switches from subsident (positive feedback) to convective (negative feedback) regimes under the effect of seasonal and interannual variations. Only one-third of CMIP3 + CMIP5 models reproduce this regime shift, with the other models remaining locked in one of the two regimes. The modelled shortwave feedback nonlinearity increases with ENSO amplitude and the amplitude of this feedback in the spring strongly relates with the models ability to simulate ENSO phase locking. In a final stage, a subset of metrics is proposed in order to synthesize the ability of each CMIP3 and CMIP5 models to simulate ENSO main characteristics and key atmospheric feedbacks.

Ecuador Paraiso Escondido virus, a new flavivirus isolated from New World sand flies in Ecuador, is the first representative of a novel clade in the genus flavivirus

A new flavivirus, Ecuador Paraiso Escondido virus (EPEV), named after the village where it was discovered, was isolated from sand flies (Psathyromyia abonnenci, formerly Lutzomyia abonnenci) that are unique to the New World. This represents the first sand fly-borne flavivirus identified in the New World. EPEV exhibited a typical flavivirus genome organization. Nevertheless, the maximum pairwise amino acid sequence identity with currently recognized flaviviruses was 52.8%. Phylogenetic analysis of the complete coding sequence showed that EPEV represents a distinct clade which diverged from a lineage that was ancestral to the nonvectored flaviviruses Entebbe bat virus, Yokose virus, and Sokoluk virus and also the Aedes-associated mosquito-borne flaviviruses, which include yellow fever virus, Sepik virus, Saboya virus, and others. EPEV replicated in C6/36 mosquito cells, yielding high infectious titers, but failed to reproduce either in vertebrate cell lines (Vero, BHK, SW13, and XTC cells) or in suckling mouse brains. This surprising result, which appears to eliminate an association with vertebrate hosts in the life cycle of EPEV, is discussed in the context of the evolutionary origins of EPEV in the New World.The flaviviruses are rarely (if ever) vectored by sand fly species, at least in the Old World. We have identified the first representative of a sand fly-associated flavivirus, Ecuador Paraiso Escondido virus (EPEV), in the New World. EPEV constitutes a novel clade according to current knowledge of the flaviviruses. Phylogenetic analysis of the virus genome showed that EPEV roots the Aedes-associated mosquito-borne flaviviruses, including yellow fever virus. In light of this new discovery, the New World origin of EPEV is discussed together with that of the other flaviviruses.

Host-parasite-environment relationship, morphology and molecular analyses of Henneguya eirasi n. sp parasite of two wild Pseudoplatystoma spp. in Pantanal Wetland, Brazil

A new myxosporean species, Henneguya eirasi n. sp., is described parasitizing the gill filaments of Pseudoplatystoma corruscans and Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum (Siluriformes: Pimelodidae) caught in the Patanal Wetland of the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. The parasite formed white, elongated plasmodia measuring up to 3 mm. Mature spores were ellipsoidal in the frontal view, measuring 37.1 +/- 1.8 mu m in total length, 12.9 +/- 0.8 mu m in body length, 3.4 +/- 0.3 mu m in width, 3.1 +/- 0.1 mu m in thickness and 24.6 +/- 2.2 mu m in the caudal process. Polar capsules were elongated and equal in size, measuring 5.4 +/- 0.5 mu m in length and 0.7 +/- 0.1 mu m in width. Polar filaments had 12-13 coils. Histopathological analysis revealed that the parasite developed in the sub-epithelial connective tissue of the gill filaments and the plasmodia were surrounded by a capsule of host connective tissue. The plasmodia caused slight compression of the adjacent tissues, but no inflammatory response was observed in the infection site. Ultrastructure analysis revealed a single plasmodial wall connected to the ectoplasmic zone through numerous pinocytotic canals. The plasmodial wall exhibited numerous projections and slightly electron-dense material was found in the ectoplasm next to the plasmodial wall, forming a line just below the wall. Partial sequencing of the 18S rDNA gene of H. eirasi n. sp. obtained from P. fasciatum resulted in a total of 1066 bp and this sequence did not match any of the Myxozoa available in the GenBank. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the Henneguya species clustering into clades following the order and family of the host fishes. H. eirasi n. sp. clustered alone in one clade, which was the basal unit for the clade composed of Henneguya species parasites of siluriform ictalurids. The prevalence of the parasite was 17.1% in both fish species examined. Parasite prevalence was not influenced by season, host sex or host size. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New perspectives on the synoptic and mesoscale structure of Hurricane Catarina

This work explores in detail synoptic and mesoscale features of Hurricane Catarina during its life cycle from a decaying baroclinic wave to a tropical depression that underwent tropical transition (TT) and finally to a Category 2 hurricane at landfall over Santa Catarina State coast, southern Brazil. This unique system caused 11 deaths mostly off the Brazilian coast and an estimated half billion dollars in damage in a matter of a few hours on 28 March 2004. Although the closest meteorological station available was tens of kilometres away from the eye, in situ meteorological measurements provided by a work-team sent to the area where the eye made landfall unequivocally reproduces the tropical signature with category 2 strength, adding to previous analysis where this data was not available. Further analyses are based mostly on remote sensing data available at the time of the event. A classic dipole blocking set synoptic conditions for Hurricane Catarina to develop, dynamically contributing to the low wind shear observed. On the other hand, on its westward transit, large scale subsidence limited its strength and vertical development. Catarina had relatively cool SST conditions, but this was mitigated by favourable air-sea fluxes leading to latent heat release-driven processes during the mature phase. The ocean`s dynamic topography also suggested the presence of nearby warm core rings which may have facilitated the transition and post-transition intensification. Since there were no records of such a system at least in the past 30 years and given that SSTs were generally below 26 degrees C and vertical shear was usually strong, despite all satellite data available, the system was initially classified as an extratropical cyclone. Here we hypothesise that this categorization was based oil inadequate regional scale model outputs which did not account for the importance of the latent heat fluxes over the ocean. Hurricane Catarina represents a dramatic event on weather systems in South America. It has attracted attention worldwide and poses questions as whether or not it is a symptom of global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An event of stratospheric air intrusion and its associated secondary surface cyclogenesis over the South Atlantic Ocean

This work presents an analysis of a lowermost stratospheric air intrusion event over the coast of Brazil, which may have been responsible for a secondary surface cyclogenesis over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The surface cyclone initiated at 0600 UTC 17 April 1999 in a cold air mass in the rear of a cold front after a primary cyclone developed over the same region. The analysis of the secondary cyclone revealed the presence of lowermost stratospheric air intrusion characterized by anomalous potential vorticity (PV), dry air, and high concentration of ozone in atmospheric column. The system developed on the eastern side of an upper level core of PV anomaly, which induced a cyclonic wind circulation at lower levels and favored the onset of the secondary cyclone. In midlevels (500 hPa), the cutoff low development contributed to reduce the propagation speed of the wave pattern. This feature seemed to (1) allow the low-level cold/dry air to heat/moisten associated with sensible and latent fluxes transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere, which intensified a baroclinic zone parallel to the coast, and (2) contribute to the long duration of the system. The present analysis indicates that this secondary cyclone development could be the result of the coupling between the PV anomaly in the upper levels and low-level air-sea interaction.

Proteins and Peptidases from Conidia and Mycelia of Scedosporium apiospermum Strain HLPB

The conidia-mycelia transformation is an essential step during the life cycle of the fungal human pathogens of the Pseudallescheria boydii complex. In the present study, we have analyzed the protein and peptidase profiles in two distinct morphological stages, conidia and mycelia, of Scedosporium apiospermum sensu stricto. Proteins synthesized by the mycelia, migrating at the ranges of 62-48 and 22-18 kDa, were not detected from the conidial extract. Conidia produced a single cellular peptidase of 28 kDa able to digest copolymerized albumin, while mycelia yielded 6 distinct peptidases ranging from 90 to 28 kDa. All proteolytic enzymes were active at acidic pH and fully inhibited by 1,10-phenanthroline, characterizing these activities as metallo-type peptidases. Quantitative peptidase assay, using soluble albumin, showed a high metallopeptidase production in mycelial cells in comparison with conidia. The regulated expression of proteins and peptidases in different morphological stages of S. apiospermum represents a potential target for isolation of stage-specific markers for biochemical and immunological analysis.

Regression analysis of mean quality-adjusted survival time based on pseudo-observations

Regression models for the mean quality-adjusted survival time are specified from hazard functions of transitions between two states and the mean quality-adjusted survival time may be a complex function of covariates. We discuss a regression model for the mean quality-adjusted survival (QAS) time based on pseudo-observations, which has the advantage of directly modeling the effect of covariates in the QAS time. Both Monte Carlo Simulations and a real data set are studied. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Protein variation in blood-dwelling schistosome worms generated by differential splicing of micro-exon gene transcripts

Schistosoma mansoni is a well-adapted blood-dwelling parasitic helminth, persisting for decades in its human host despite being continually exposed to potential immune attack. Here, we describe in detail micro-exon genes (MEG) in S. mansoni, some present in multiple copies, which represent a novel molecular system for creating protein variation through the alternate splicing of short (<= 36 bp) symmetric exons organized in tandem. Analysis of three closely related copies of one MEG family allowed us to trace several evolutionary events and propose a mechanism for micro-exon generation and diversification. Microarray experiments show that the majority of MEGs are up-regulated in life cycle stages associated with establishment in the mammalian host after skin penetration. Sequencing of RT-PCR products allowed the description of several alternate splice forms of micro-exon genes, highlighting the potential use of these transcripts to generate a complex pool of protein variants. We obtained direct evidence for the existence of such pools by proteomic analysis of secretions from migrating schistosomula and mature eggs. Whole-mount in situ hybridization and immunolocalization showed that MEG transcripts and proteins were restricted to glands or epithelia exposed to the external environment. The ability of schistosomes to produce a complex pool of variant proteins aligns them with the other major groups of blood parasites, but using a completely different mechanism. We believe that our data open a new chapter in the study of immune evasion by schistosomes, and their ability to generate variant proteins could represent a significant obstacle to vaccine development.

Decomposing Consumer Wealth Effects: Evidence on the Role of Real Estate Assets Following the Wealth Cycle of 1990-2002

During the period of 1990-2002 US households experienced a dramatic wealth cycle, induced by a 369% appreciation in the value of real per capita liquid stock market assets followed by a 55% decline. However, consumer spending in real terms continued to rise throughout this period. Using data from 1990-2005, traditional life-cycle approaches to estimating macroeconomic wealth effects confront two puzzles: (i) econometric evidence of a stable cointegrating relationship among consumption, income, and wealth is weak at best; and (ii) life-cycle models that rely on aggregate measures of wealth cannot explain why consumption did not collapse when the value of stock market assets declined so dramatically. We address both puzzles by decomposing wealth according to the liquidity of household assets. We find that the significant appreciation in the value of real estate assets that occurred after the peak of the wealth cycle helped sustain consumer spending from 2001 to 2005.

Analysis of Optimum Location, Viability, and Potential Effects of Wind Farm Construction in Maine

Maine has the highest potential for wind energy in New England and falls within the top twenty states in the nation. It falls just behind Wisconsin and California with an estimate electrical output of 56 billion kWhs. The geological makeup of Maine’s mountains in the western part of the state, and the exposed coastline provide opportune areas to capture wind and convert it into energy. The information included in this poster will suggest the most likely areas for wind development based on a number of factors as recommended by the American Wind Energy Association.

Os extremos do ciclo de vida: trabalho infantil e aposentadoria precoce

Este trabalho procura analisar dois problemas bastante graves que afligem a sociedade brasileira. De um lado, a entrada precoce na força de trabalho, que tem sua face mais perversa no trabalho infantil; de outro, a saída também precoce da força de trabalho de adultos em idade ainda produtiva. Ambos fenômenos são empobrecedores para a sociedade e atuam como mecanismo de geração e perpetuação de pobreza. O trabalho infantil, discutido na primeira parte do trabalho, prejudica a educação. A saída precoce da força de trabalho, analisado na segunda parte do trabalho, é um desperdício de recursos. Na terceira parte é desenvolvida uma análise formal que procura mostrar o quanto um sistema de aposentadorias como o sistema previdenciário brasileiro, que garante uma renda por vida às pessoas após um certo anos de trabalho, pode induzir escolhas que embora ótimas do ponto de vista privado são bastante custosas do ponto vista social. Especificamente, procura-se mostrar como esta legislação pode incentivar tanto a entrada quanto a saída precoce do mercado de trabalho.