Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling activated sludge flocculation using population balances

Activated sludge flocculation was modelled using population balances. The model followed the dynamics of activated sludge flocculation providing a good approximation of the change in mean floe size with time. Increasing the average velocity gradient decreased the final floe size. The breakage rate coefficient and collision efficiency also varied with the average velocity gradient. A power law relationship was found for the increase in breakage rate coefficient with increasing average velocity gradient. Further investigation will be conducted to determine the relationship between the collision efficiency and particle size to provide a better approximation of dynamic changes in the floe size distribution during flocculation. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Epidemiology and strain characteristics of Echinococcus granulosus in the Benghazi area of eastern Libya

The incidence of surgically confirmed cystic echinococcosis in eastern Libya was estimated to be at least 4.2 cases/100,000, with significantly more female cases than male. The prevalences of infection with Echinococcus granulosus among 1087 sheep, 881 goats, 428 camels and 614 cattle from the same region, determined postmortem in abattoirs, were 20%, 3.4%, 13.6% and 11%, respectively. Infection in the livestock was age-dependent and, generally, the female animals were more often infected than the male. The measurements of rostellar hooks on protoscoleces collected from sheep and cattle were similar but significantly different from the corresponding measurements of parasites of human or camel origin. However, when a portion of the cytochrome c-oxidase subunit I (coxl) gene from each of 30 protoscolex samples from Libya (12 from cattle, three from humans, five from camels and 10 from sheep) was sequenced, the sequences were all found to be identical to that published for the common sheep strain of E. granulosus.

Simulation of the micro-physics of rocks using LSMearth

The particle-based Lattice Solid Model (LSM) was developed to provide a basis to study the physics of rocks and the nonlinear dynamics of earthquakes (MORA and PLACE, 1994; PLACE and MORA, 1999). A new modular and flexible LSM approach has been developed that allows different microphysics to be easily included in or removed from the model. The approach provides a virtual laboratory where numerical experiments can easily be set up and all measurable quantities visualised. The proposed approach provides a means to simulate complex phenomena such as fracturing or localisation processes, and enables the effect of different micro-physics on macroscopic behaviour to be studied. The initial 2-D model is extended to allow three-dimensional simulations to be performed and particles of different sizes to be specified. Numerical bi-axial compression experiments under different confining pressure are used to calibrate the model. By tuning the different microscopic parameters (such as coefficient of friction, microscopic strength and distribution of grain sizes), the macroscopic strength of the material and can be adjusted to be in agreement with laboratory experiments, and the orientation of fractures is consistent with the theoretical value predicted based on Mohr-Coulomb diagram. Simulations indicate that 3-D numerical models have different macroscopic properties than in 2-D and, hence, the model must be recalibrated for 3-D simulations. These numerical experiments illustrate that the new approach is capable of simulating typical rock fracture behaviour. The new model provides a basis to investigate nucleation, rupture and slip pulse propagation in complex fault zones without the previous model limitations of a regular low-level surface geometry and being restricted to two-dimensions.

Simulation of the influence of rate- and state-dependent friction on the macroscopic behavior of complex fault zones with the lattice solid model

In order to understand the earthquake nucleation process, we need to understand the effective frictional behavior of faults with complex geometry and fault gouge zones. One important aspect of this is the interaction between the friction law governing the behavior of the fault on the microscopic level and the resulting macroscopic behavior of the fault zone. Numerical simulations offer a possibility to investigate the behavior of faults on many different scales and thus provide a means to gain insight into fault zone dynamics on scales which are not accessible to laboratory experiments. Numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the influence of the geometric configuration of faults with a rate- and state-dependent friction at the particle contacts on the effective frictional behavior of these faults. The numerical experiments are designed to be similar to laboratory experiments by DIETERICH and KILGORE (1994) in which a slide-hold-slide cycle was performed between two blocks of material and the resulting peak friction was plotted vs. holding time. Simulations with a flat fault without a fault gouge have been performed to verify the implementation. These have shown close agreement with comparable laboratory experiments. The simulations performed with a fault containing fault gouge have demonstrated a strong dependence of the critical slip distance D-c on the roughness of the fault surfaces and are in qualitative agreement with laboratory experiments.

Parallel simulation system for earthquake generation: Fault analysis modules and parallel coupling analysis

Solid earth simulations have recently been developed to address issues such as natural disasters, global environmental destruction and the conservation of natural resources. The simulation of solid earth phenomena involves the analysis of complex structures including strata, faults, and heterogeneous material properties. Simulation of the generation and cycle of earthquakes is particularly important, but such simulations require the analysis of complex fault dynamics. GeoFEM is a parallel finite-element analysis system intended for solid earth field phenomena problems. This paper describes recent development in the GeoFEM project for the simulation of earthquake generation and cycles.

Solution Structures of the cis- and trans-Pro30 Isomers of a Novel 38-Residue Toxin from the Venom of Hadronyche Infensa sp. that Contains a Cystine-Knot Motif within Its Four Disulfide Bonds

The primary sequence and three-dimensional structure of a novel peptide toxin isolated from the Australian funnel-web spider Hadronyche infensa sp. is reported. ACTX-HI:OB4219 contains 38 amino acids, including eight-cysteine residues that form four disulfide bonds. The connectivities of these disulfide bonds were previously unknown but have been unambiguously determined in this study. Three of these disulfide bonds are arranged in an inhibitor cystine-knot (ICK) motif, which is observed in a range of other disulfide-rich peptide toxins. The motif incorporates an embedded ring in the structure formed by two of the disulfides and their connecting backbone segments penetrated by a third disulfide bond. Using NMR spectroscopy, we determined that despite the isolation of a single native homologous product by RP-HPLC, ACTX-HI:OB4219 possesses two equally populated conformers in solution. These two conformers were determined to arise from cis/trans isomerization of the bond preceding Pro30. Full assignment of the NMR spectra for both conformers allowed for the calculation of their structures, revealing, the presence of a triple-stranded antiparallel sheet consistent with the inhibitor cystine-knot (ICK) motif.

Multiple maps and activity-dependent representational plasticity in the anterior Wulst of the adult barn owl (Tyto alba)

In the present study we addressed the issue of somatosensory representation and plasticity in a nonmammalian species, the barn owl. Multiunit mapping techniques were used to examine the representation of the specialized receptor surface of the claw in the anterior Wulst. We found dual somatotopic mirror image representations of the skin surface of the contralateral claw. In addition, we examined both representations 2 weeks after denervation of the distal skin surface of a single digit. In both representations, the denervated digital representation became responsive to stimulation of the adjacent, mutually functional, digit. The mutability and multiple representations indicates that the Wulst provides the owl with sensory processing capabilities analogous to those in mammals.

A quantitative state and transition model for the Mitchell grasslands of central western Queensland

Concerns of reduced productivity and land degradation in the Mitchell grasslands of central western Queensland were addressed through a range monitoring program to interpret condition and trend. Botanical and eclaphic parameters were recorded along piosphere and grazing gradients, and across fenceline impact areas, to maximise changes resulting from grazing. The Degradation Gradient Method was used in conjunction with State and Transition Models to develop models of rangeland dynamics and condition. States were found to be ordered along a degradation gradient, indicator species developed according to rainfall trends and transitions determined from field data and available literature. Astrebla spp. abundance declined with declining range condition and increasing grazing pressure, while annual grasses and forbs increased in dominance under poor range condition. Soil erosion increased and litter decreased with decreasing range condition. An approach to quantitatively define states within a variable rainfall environment based upon a time-series ordination analysis is described. The derived model could provide the interpretive framework necessary to integrate on-ground monitoring, remote sensing and geographic information systems to trace states and transitions at the paddock scale. However, further work is needed to determine the full catalogue of states and transitions and to refine the model for application at the paddock scale.

An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation

The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a modular modelling framework that has been developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia. APSIM was developed to simulate biophysical process in farming systems, in particular where there is interest in the economic and ecological outcomes of management practice in the face of climatic risk. The paper outlines APSIM's structure and provides details of the concepts behind the different plant, soil and management modules. These modules include a diverse range of crops, pastures and trees, soil processes including water balance, N and P transformations, soil pH, erosion and a full range of management controls. Reports of APSIM testing in a diverse range of systems and environments are summarised. An example of model performance in a long-term cropping systems trial is provided. APSIM has been used in a broad range of applications, including support for on-farm decision making, farming systems design for production or resource management objectives, assessment of the value of seasonal climate forecasting, analysis of supply chain issues in agribusiness activities, development of waste management guidelines, risk assessment for government policy making and as a guide to research and education activity. An extensive citation list for these model testing and application studies is provided. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Competition and resource availability in an annual plant community dominated by an invasive species, Carrichtera annua (L. Aschers.), in South Australia

The last decade has seen spirited debates about how resource availability affect the intensity of competition. This paper examines the effect that a dominant introduced species, Carrichtera annua, has upon the winter annual community in the arid chenopod shrublands of South Australia. Manipulative field experiments were conducted to assess plant community response to changing below-ground resource levels and to the manipulation of the density of C. annua. Changes in the density of C. annua had little effect on the abundance of all other species in the guild. Nutrient addition produced an increase in the biomass of the most abundant native species, Crassula colorata. An analysis of the root distribution of the main species suggested that the areas of soil resource capture of C. annua and C. colorata are largely segregated. Our results suggest that intraspecific competition may be stronger than interspecific competition, controlling the species responses to increased resource availability. The results are consistent with a two-phase resource dynamics systems, with pulses of high resource availability triggering growth, followed by pulses of stress. Smaller plants were nutrient limited under natural field conditions, suggesting that stress experienced during long interpulse phases may override competitive effects after short pulse phases. The observed differences in root system structure will determine when plants of a different species are experiencing a pulse or an interpulse phase. We suggest that the limitations to plant recruitment and growth are the product of a complex interplay between the length and intensity of the pulse of resource availability, the duration and severity of the interpulse periods, and biological characters of the species.

The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

An investigation into the possible inhibitory effects of white cypress pine (Callitris glaucophylla) litter on the germination and growth of associated ground cover species

White cypress-pine stands typically support sparse densities of shrubs and grasses. The commonly held opinion is that leaching of allelopathic chemical compounds from cypress-pine litter partly facilitates this exclusion. Germination and growth of cypress pine seedlings do not appear to be similarly affected. This study set out to determine whether cypress litter had a differential effect on germination and growth of cypress-pine seedlings and on associated ground-cover species. Glasshouse trials comparing seedling emergence under cypress- and artificial-litter layers were undertaken. Cypress-pine litter did not have an inhibitory effect on the germination or growth of ground-cover species. In most cases, seedling emergence was facilitated by the application of cypress-pine litter due to its ability to increase the water holding capacity of the underlying soil. Cypress litter did not promote growth of its own seedlings over its competitors except on coarse-textured soils where it provided an ameliorative function to water stress due to the soil's reduced water holding capacity. The inhibition of ground-cover species' germination and growth in pure cypress stands was suggested to be the result of high below-ground resource competition due to the pine's expansive root morphology.

Dispersal patterns in a regional koala population in south-east Queensland

Koala dispersal was investigated as part of a detailed ecological study of a nationally significant koala population located 20 km south-east of Brisbane, Queensland. From 1996 to 2000, 195 koalas from three sites were captured and fitted with radio-collars. A total of 40 koalas ( 23 males and 17 females) dispersed from these sites. Most (93%) dispersing individuals were 20 - 36 months of age. Three adult females ( more than 36 months old) dispersed and no adult males dispersed during the study. A significantly higher proportion of young males dispersed than females. Dispersal occurred between June and December, with most dispersal of males commencing in July and August and that of females commencing between September and November prior to, and early in, the annual breeding season. The mean straight-line distance between the natal and breeding home ranges for males and females was similar and was measured at 3.5 km ( range 1.1 - 9.7 km) and 3.4 km ( range 0.3 - 10.6 km) respectively. Dispersing males and females tended to successfully disperse south and west of their natal home ranges and were generally unable to successfully disperse to urban areas within the study area, as a high proportion of the mortality of dispersing koalas was associated with attacks by domestic dogs and with collisions with vehicles on roads. Information from other studies indicates that most young koalas disperse from their natal areas. It is likely that the social behaviour and mating systems of koala populations provide mechanisms for young koalas to disperse. The potential role of dispersal in the dynamics of regional koala populations is discussed.