Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales

It is argued that existing polar prediction systems do not yet meet users’ needs; and possible ways forward in advancing prediction capacity in polar regions and beyond are outlined. The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fuelled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with less in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well-represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting community will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and educational activities.

The relevance of qualitative research

Sociologisk Forsknings digitala arkiv

The effect of projections on dimension in the Heisenberg group

We prove analogs of classical almost sure dimension theorems for Euclidean projection mappings in the first Heisenberg group, equipped with a sub-Riemannian metric.

Bright moonlight triggers natal dispersal departures

Upon leaving their natal area, dispersers are confronted with unknown terrains. Species-specific perceptual ranges (i.e. the maximum distance from which an individual can perceive landscape features) play a crucial role in spatial movement decisions during such wanderings. In nocturnal animals that rely on vision, perceptual range is dramatically enhanced during moonlight, compared to moonless conditions. This increase of the perceptual range is an overlooked element that may be responsible for the successful crossing of unfamiliar areas during dispersal. The information gathered from 143 radio-tagged eagle owl Bubo bubo juveniles in Spain, Finland and Switzerland shows that, although the decision to initiate dispersal is mainly an endogenous phenomenon determined by the attainment of a given age (∼6 months), dispersers leave their birthplace primarily under the best light conditions at night, i.e. when most of the lunar disc is illuminated. This sheds new light into the mechanisms that may trigger dispersal from parental territory.

Inherited susceptibility to uterine leiomyomas and renal cell cancer

Herein we report the clinical, histopathological, and molecular features of a cancer syndrome with predisposition to uterine leiomyomas and papillary renal cell carcinoma. The studied kindred included 11 family members with uterine leiomyomas and two with uterine leiomyosarcoma. Seven individuals had a history of cutaneous nodules, two of which were confirmed to be cutaneous leiomyomatosis. The four kidney cancer cases occurred in young (33- to 48-year-old) females and displayed a unique natural history. All these kidney cancers displayed a distinct papillary histology and presented as unilateral solitary lesions that had metastasized at the time of diagnosis. Genetic-marker analysis mapped the predisposition gene to chromosome 1q. Losses of the normal chromosome 1q were observed in tumors that had occurred in the kindred, including a uterine leiomyoma. Moreover, the observed histological features were used as a tool to diagnose a second kindred displaying the phenotype. We have shown that predisposition to uterine leiomyomas and papillary renal cell cancer can be inherited dominantly through the hereditary leiomyomatosis and renal cell cancer (HLRCC) gene. The HLRCC gene maps to chromosome 1q and is likely to be a tumor suppressor. Clinical, histopathological, and molecular tools are now available for accurate detection and diagnosis of this cancer syndrome.