Constructing Melchior Lorichs's 'Panorama of Constantinople'

In Constructing Melchior Lorichs's Panorama of Constantinople, Nigel Westbrook, Kenneth Rainsbury Dark, and Rene Van Meeuwen propose that Melchior Lorichs's 1559 Panorama of Constantinople was created by using a viewing grid. The panorama is thus a reliable graphic source for the lost or since-altered Ottoman and Byzantine buildings of the city. The panorama appears to lie outside the conventional symbolic mode of topographical depiction common for its period and constitutes a rare "scientific" record of an encounter of a perspicacious observer with a vast subject. The drawing combines elements of allegory with extensive empirical observation. Several unknown structures, shown on the drawing, have been located in relation to the present-day topography of Istanbul, as a test-case for further research.

System performance in IR atmospheric radiometry

System aspects of filter radiometer optics used to sense planetary atmospheres are described. Thus the lenses, dichroic beamsplitters and filters in longwave channels of the Mars Observer PMIRR Pressure Modulator Infrared radiometer instrument are assessed individually, and as systems at 20.7µm, 31.9µm, 47.2µm wavelength. A window filter and a longwave calibration filter of the SCARAB earth observer instrument are assessed similarly.

Filtering techniques in self-tuning

In the last few years a state-space formulation has been introduced into self-tuning control. This has not only allowed for a wider choice of possible control actions, but has also provided an insight into the theory underlying—and hidden by—that used in the polynomial description. This paper considers many of the self-tuning algorithms, both state-space and polynomial, presently in use, and by starting from first principles develops the observers which are, effectively, used in each case. At any specific time instant the state estimator can be regarded as taking one of two forms. In the first case the most recently available output measurement is excluded, and here an optimal and conditionally stable observer is obtained. In the second case the present output signal is included, and here it is shown that although the observer is once again conditionally stable, it is no longer optimal. This result is of significance, as many of the popular self-tuning controllers lie in the second, rather than first, category.

Optimal observers for ARMA models

A polynomial-based ARMA model, when posed in a state-space framework can be regarded in many different ways. In this paper two particular state-space forms of the ARMA model are considered, and although both are canonical in structure they differ in respect of the mode in which disturbances are fed into the state and output equations. For both forms a solution is found to the optimal discrete-time observer problem and algebraic connections between the two optimal observers are shown. The purpose of the paper is to highlight the fact that the optimal observer obtained from the first state-space form, commonly known as the innovations form, is not that employed in an optimal controller, in the minimum-output variance sense, whereas the optimal observer obtained from the second form is. Hence the second form is a much more appropriate state-space description to use for controller design, particularly when employed in self-tuning control schemes.

Operator performance evaluation of controlled depth of field in a stereographically displayed virtual environment

Retinal blurring resulting from the human eye's depth of focus has been shown to assist visual perception. Infinite focal depth within stereoscopically displayed virtual environments may cause undesirable effects, for instance, objects positioned at a distance in front of or behind the observer's fixation point will be perceived in sharp focus with large disparities thereby causing diplopia. Although published research on incorporation of synthetically generated Depth of Field (DoF) suggests that this might act as an enhancement to perceived image quality, no quantitative testimonies of perceptional performance gains exist. This may be due to the difficulty of dynamic generation of synthetic DoF where focal distance is actively linked to fixation distance. In this paper, such a system is described. A desktop stereographic display is used to project a virtual scene in which synthetically generated DoF is actively controlled from vergence-derived distance. A performance evaluation experiment on this system which involved subjects carrying out observations in a spatially complex virtual environment was undertaken. The virtual environment consisted of components interconnected by pipes on a distractive background. The subject was tasked with making an observation based on the connectivity of the components. The effects of focal depth variation in static and actively controlled focal distance conditions were investigated. The results and analysis are presented which show that performance gains may be achieved by addition of synthetic DoF. The merits of the application of synthetic DoF are discussed.

The state estimation of flow demands in gas networks from sparse pressure telemetry

This paper presents novel observer-based techniques for the estimation of flow demands in gas networks, from sparse pressure telemetry. A completely observable model is explored, constructed by incorporating difference equations that assume the flow demands are steady. Since the flow demands usually vary slowly with time, this is a reasonable approximation. Two techniques for constructing robust observers are employed: robust eigenstructure assignment and singular value assignment. These techniques help to reduce the effects of the system approximation. Modelling error may be further reduced by making use of known profiles for the flow demands. The theory is extended to deal successfully with the problem of measurement bias. The pressure measurements available are subject to constant biases which degrade the flow demand estimates, and such biases need to be estimated. This is achieved by constructing a further model variation that incorporates the biases into an augmented state vector, but now includes information about the flow demand profiles in a new form.

Effects of Thomson-scattering geometry on white-light imaging of an interplanetary shock: synthetic observations from forward magnetohydrodynamic modelling

Stereoscopic white-light imaging of a large portion of the inner heliosphere has been used to track interplanetary coronal mass ejections. At large elongations from the Sun, the white-light brightness depends on both the local electron density and the efficiency of the Thomson-scattering process. To quantify the effects of the Thomson-scattering geometry, we study an interplanetary shock using forward magnetohydrodynamic simulation and synthetic white-light imaging. Identifiable as an inclined streak of enhanced brightness in a time–elongation map, the travelling shock can be readily imaged by an observer located within a wide range of longitudes in the ecliptic. Different parts of the shock front contribute to the imaged brightness pattern viewed by observers at different longitudes. Moreover, even for an observer located at a fixed longitude, a different part of the shock front will contribute to the imaged brightness at any given time. The observed brightness within each imaging pixel results from a weighted integral along its corresponding ray-path. It is possible to infer the longitudinal location of the shock from the brightness pattern in an optical sky map, based on the east–west asymmetry in its brightness and degree of polarisation. Therefore, measurement of the interplanetary polarised brightness could significantly reduce the ambiguity in performing three-dimensional reconstruction of local electron density from white-light imaging.

"De rappels en prédictions, savoir convaincre et savoir agir : le rôle ambigu de Merlin, de la naissance d'Arthur à son accès au trône de Bretagne (dans le Merlin en prose et la Suite Vulgate)"

Bénéficiant de la connaissance du passé, du présent et du futur, Merlin ne se contente pas de rappeler, observer, ou prédire, mais il agit et influence le cours de l'histoire en favorisant la conception problématique d'Arthur. L'étude porte sur la nature et la portée de son investissement dans une trame narrative où il n'a de cesse d'argumenter, de convaincre, et de se justifier.

Fractal spatialities

This paper argues for the use of ‘fractals’ in theorising sociospatial relations. From a realist position, a nonmathematical but nonmetaphoric and descriptive view of ‘fractals’ is advanced. Insights from the natural sciences are combined with insights on the position of the observer from Luhmann and notions of assemblages and repetitions from Deleuze. It is argued that the notion of ‘fractals’ can augment current understanding of sociospatialities in three ways. First, it can pose questions about the scalar position of the observer or the grain of observation; second, as a signifier of particular attributes, it prompts observation and description of particular structuring processes; and third, the epistemic access afforded by the concept can open up possibilities for transformative interventions and thereby inform the same. The theoretical usefulness of the concept is demonstrated by discussing the territory, place, scale, and networks (TPSN) model for theorising sociospatial relations advanced by B Jessop, N Brenner, and M Jones in their 2008 paper “Theorizing sociospatial relations”, published in this journal (volume 26, pages 389–401). It is suggested that a heuristic arising from a ‘fractal’ ontology can contribute to a polymorphous, as opposed to polyvalent, understanding of sociospatial relations.

Process analysis of trauma-focused cognitive behavioural therapy for individuals with schizophrenia

Objective. Therapeutic alliance, modality, and ability to engage with the process of therapy have been the main focus of research into what makes psychotherapy successful. Individuals with complex trauma histories or schizophrenia are suggested to be more difficult to engage and may be less likely to benefit from therapy. This study aimed to track the in-session ‘process’ of working alliance and emotional processing of trauma memories for individuals with schizophrenia. Design. The study utilized session recordings from the treatment arm of an open randomized clinical trial investigating trauma-focused cognitive behavioural therapy (TF-CBT) for individuals with schizophrenia (N = 26). Method. Observer measures of working alliance, emotional processing, and affect arousal were rated at early and late phases of therapy. Correlation analysis was undertaken for process measures. Temporal analysis of expressed emotions was also reported. Results. Working alliance was established and maintained throughout the therapy; however, agreement on goals reduced at the late phase. The participants appeared to be able to engage in emotional processing, but not to the required level for successful cognitive restructuring. Conclusion. This study undertook novel exploration of process variables not usually explored in CBT. It is also the first study of process for TF-CBT with individuals with schizophrenia. This complex clinical sample showed no difficulty in engagement; however, they may not be able to fully undertake the cognitive–emotional demands of this type of therapy. Clinical and research implications and potential limitations of these methods are considered.

Assessing the performance of dynamical trajectory estimates

Estimating trajectories and parameters of dynamical systems from observations is a problem frequently encountered in various branches of science; geophysicists for example refer to this problem as data assimilation. Unlike as in estimation problems with exchangeable observations, in data assimilation the observations cannot easily be divided into separate sets for estimation and validation; this creates serious problems, since simply using the same observations for estimation and validation might result in overly optimistic performance assessments. To circumvent this problem, a result is presented which allows us to estimate this optimism, thus allowing for a more realistic performance assessment in data assimilation. The presented approach becomes particularly simple for data assimilation methods employing a linear error feedback (such as synchronization schemes, nudging, incremental 3DVAR and 4DVar, and various Kalman filter approaches). Numerical examples considering a high gain observer confirm the theory.

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 3. Effects of regression procedures on the calibration of historic sunspot data

We use sunspot group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups RB above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole-spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of RB are then re-scaled to the full observed RGO group number RA using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between RA and RB (rAB > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (for example sunspot maximum values can be over 30 % too large even for such levels of rAB). In generating the backbone sunspot number (RBB), Svalgaard and Schatten (2015, this issue) force regression fits to pass through the scatter plot origin which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile (“Q  Q”) plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot group numbers). However, other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data.

A new calibrated sunspot group series since 1749: statistics of active day fractions

Although the sunspot-number series have existed since the mid-19th century, they are still the subject of intense debate, with the largest uncertainty being related to the "calibration" of the visual acuity of individual observers in the past. Daisy-chain regression methods are applied to inter-calibrate the observers which may lead to significant bias and error accumulation. Here we present a novel method to calibrate the visual acuity of the key observers to the reference data set of Royal Greenwich Observatory sunspot groups for the period 1900-1976, using the statistics of the active-day fraction. For each observer we independently evaluate their observational thresholds [S_S] defined such that the observer is assumed to miss all of the groups with an area smaller than S_S and report all the groups larger than S_S. Next, using a Monte-Carlo method we construct, from the reference data set, a correction matrix for each observer. The correction matrices are significantly non-linear and cannot be approximated by a linear regression or proportionality. We emphasize that corrections based on a linear proportionality between annually averaged data lead to serious biases and distortions of the data. The correction matrices are applied to the original sunspot group records for each day, and finally the composite corrected series is produced for the period since 1748. The corrected series displays secular minima around 1800 (Dalton minimum) and 1900 (Gleissberg minimum), as well as the Modern grand maximum of activity in the second half of the 20th century. The uniqueness of the grand maximum is confirmed for the last 250 years. It is shown that the adoption of a linear relationship between the data of Wolf and Wolfer results in grossly inflated group numbers in the 18th and 19th centuries in some reconstructions.

Disparity-defined objects moving in depth do not elicit three-dimensional shape constancy

Observers generally fail to recover three-dimensional shape accurately from binocular disparity. Typically, depth is overestimated at near distances and underestimated at far distances [Johnston, E. B. (1991). Systematic distortions of shape from stereopsis. Vision Research, 31, 1351–1360]. A simple prediction from this is that disparity-defined objects should appear to expand in depth when moving towards the observer, and compress in depth when moving away. However, additional information is provided when an object moves from which 3D Euclidean shape can be recovered, be this through the addition of structure from motion information [Richards, W. (1985). Structure from stereo and motion. Journal of the Optical Society of America A, 2, 343–349], or the use of non-generic strategies [Todd, J. T., & Norman, J. F. (2003). The visual perception of 3-D shape from multiple cues: Are observers capable of perceiving metric structure? Perception and Psychophysics, 65, 31–47]. Here, we investigated shape constancy for objects moving in depth. We found that to be perceived as constant in shape, objects needed to contract in depth when moving toward the observer, and expand in depth when moving away, countering the effects of incorrect distance scaling (Johnston, 1991). This is a striking example of the failure of shape con- stancy, but one that is predicted if observers neither accurately estimate object distance in order to recover Euclidean shape, nor are able to base their responses on a simpler processing strategy.

Constraining the orbital orientation of eta Carinae from H Paschen lines

During the past decade, several observational and theoretical works have provided evidence of the binary nature of eta Carinae. Nevertheless, there is still no direct determination of the orbital parameters, and the different current models give contradictory results. The orbit is, in general, assumed to coincide with the Homunculus equator although the observations are not conclusive. Among all systems, eta Car has the advantage that it is possible to observe both the direct emission of line transitions in the central source and its reflection by the Homunculus, which is dependent on the orbital inclination. In this work, we studied the orbital phase-dependent hydrogen Paschen spectra reflected by the south-east lobe of the Homunculus to constrain the orbital parameters of eta Car and determine its inclination with respect to the Homunculus axis. Assuming that the emission excess originates in the wind-wind shock region, we were able to model the latitude dependence of the spectral line profiles. For the first time, we were able to estimate the orbital inclination of eta Car with respect to the observer and to the Homunculus axis. The best fit occurs for an orbital inclination to the line of sight of i similar to 60 degrees +/- 10 degrees, and i* similar to 35 degrees +/- 10 degrees with respect to the Homunculus axis, indicating that the angular momenta of the central object and the orbit are not aligned. We were also able to fix the phase angle of conjunction as similar to -40 degrees, showing that periastron passage occurs shortly after conjunction.