Chaotic mixing and transport in Rossby-wave critical layers

A simple, dynamically consistent model of mixing and transport in Rossby-wave critical layers is obtained from the well-known Stewartson–Warn–Warn (SWW) solution of Rossby-wave critical-layer theory. The SWW solution is thought to be a useful conceptual model of Rossby-wave breaking in the stratosphere. Chaotic advection in the model is a consequence of the interaction between a stationary and a transient Rossby wave. Mixing and transport are characterized separately with a number of quantitative diagnostics (e.g. mean-square dispersion, lobe dynamics, and spectral moments), and with particular emphasis on the dynamics of the tracer field itself. The parameter dependences of the diagnostics are examined: transport tends to increase monotonically with increasing perturbation amplitude whereas mixing does not. The robustness of the results is investigated by stochastically perturbing the transient-wave phase speed. The two-wave chaotic advection model is contrasted with a stochastic single-wave model. It is shown that the effects of chaotic advection cannot be captured by stochasticity alone.

Comments on some recent measurements of anomalously steep N2O and O3tracer spectra in the stratospheric surf zone

Recent aircraft measurements, primarily in the extratropics, of the horizontal variance of nitrous oxide (N2O) and ozone (O3) in the middle stratosphere indicate that horizontal spectra of the tracer variance scale nearly as k−2, where k is the spatial wavenumber along the aircraft flight track [Strahan and Mahlman, 1994; Bacmeister et al., 1996]. This spectral scaling has been regarded as inconsistent with the accepted picture of stratospheric tracer motion; large-scale quasi-two-dimensional tracer advection typically yields a k−1 scaling (i.e., the classical Batchelor spectrum). In this paper it is argued that the nearly k−2 scaling seen in the measurements is a natural outcome of quasi-two-dimensional filamentation of the polar vortex edge. The accepted picture of stratospheric tracer motion can thus be retained: no additional physical processes are needed to account for deviations from the Batchelor spectrum. Our argument is based on the finite lifetime of tracer filaments and on the “singularity spectrum” associated with a one-dimensional field composed of randomly spaced jumps in concentration.

The structure of paranoia in the general population

Background: Psychotic phenomena appear to form a continuum with normal experience and beliefs, and may build on common emotional interpersonal concerns. Aims: We tested predictions that paranoid ideation is exponentially distributed and hierarchically arranged in the general population, and that persecutory ideas build on more common cognitions of mistrust, interpersonal sensitivity and ideas of reference. Method: Items were chosen from the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis II Disorders (SCID-II) questionnaire and the Psychosis Screening Questionnaire in the second British National Survey of Psychiatric Morbidity (n = 8580), to test a putative hierarchy of paranoid development using confirmatory factor analysis, latent class analysis and factor mixture modelling analysis. Results: Different types of paranoid ideation ranged in frequency from less than 2% to nearly 30%. Total scores on these items followed an almost perfect exponential distribution (r = 0.99). Our four a priori first-order factors were corroborated (interpersonal sensitivity; mistrust; ideas of reference; ideas of persecution). These mapped onto four classes of individual respondents: a rare, severe, persecutory class with high endorsement of all item factors, including persecutory ideation; a quasi-normal class with infrequent endorsement of interpersonal sensitivity, mistrust and ideas of reference, and no ideas of persecution; and two intermediate classes, characterised respectively by relatively high endorsement of items relating to mistrust and to ideas of reference. Conclusions: The paranoia continuum has implications for the aetiology, mechanisms and treatment of psychotic disorders, while confirming the lack of a clear distinction from normal experiences and processes.

Species-specific responses of Late Quaternary megafauna to climate and humans

Despite decades of research, the roles of climate and humans in driving the dramatic extinctions of large-bodied mammals during the Late Quaternary period remain contentious. Here we use ancient DNA, species distribution models and the human fossil record to elucidate how climate and humans shaped the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth, wild horse, reindeer, bison and musk ox. We show that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years. However, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment. Although climate change alone can explain the extinction of some species, such as Eurasian musk ox and woolly rhinoceros, a combination of climatic and anthropogenic effects appears to be responsible for the extinction of others, including Eurasian steppe bison and wild horse. We find no genetic signature or any distinctive range dynamics distinguishing extinct from surviving species, emphasizing the challenges associated with predicting future responses of extant mammals to climate and human-mediated habitat change.

Multiwavelength Observations of EXO 0748-676. I. Reprocessing of X-Ray Bursts

We present high time-resolution multiwavelength observations of X-ray bursts in the low-mass X-ray binary UY Vol. Strong reprocessed signals are present in the ultraviolet and optical, lagged and smeared with respect to the X-rays. The addition of far-ultraviolet coverage for one burst allows much tighter constraints on the temperature and geometry of the reprocessing region than previously possible. A blackbody reprocessing model for this burst suggests a rise in temperatures during the burst from 18,000 to 35,000 K and an emitting area comparable to that expected for the disk and/or irradiated companion star. The lags are consistent with those expected. The single-zone blackbody model cannot reproduce the ratio of optical to ultraviolet flux during the burst, however. The discrepancy seems too large to explain with deviations from a local blackbody spectrum and more likely indicates that a range of reprocessing temperatures are required. Comparable results are derived from other bursts, and in particular the lag and smearing both appear shorter when the companion star is on the near side of the disk as predicted. The burst observed by HST also yielded a spectrum of the reprocessed light. It is dominated by continuum, with a spectral shape consistent with the temperatures derived from lightcurve modeling. Taken as a whole, our observations confirm the standard paradigm of prompt reprocessing distributed across the disk and companion star, with the response dominated by a thermalized continuum rather than by emission lines.

A survey for planetary transits in the field of NGC 7789

We present results from 30 nights of observations of the open cluster NGC 7789 with the Wide Field Camera on the Isaac Newton Telescope, La Palma. From ~900 epochs, we obtained light curves and Sloan r'-i' colours for ~33000 stars, with ~2400 stars having better than 1 per cent precision. We expected to detect ~2 transiting hot Jupiter planets if 1 per cent of stars host such a companion and a typical hot Jupiter radius is ~1.2R_J. We find 24 transit candidates, 14 of which we can assign a period. We rule out the transiting planet model for 21 of these candidates using various robust arguments. For two candidates, we are unable to decide on their nature, although it seems most likely that they are eclipsing binaries as well. We have one candidate exhibiting a single eclipse, for which we derive a radius of 1.81+0.09-0.00R_J. Three candidates remain that require follow-up observations in order to determine their nature.

Fireballs, flares, and flickering: A semianalytic, LTE, explosive model from accretion disks to supernovae

We derive simple analytic expressions for the continuum light curves and spectra of flaring and flickering events that occur over a wide range of astrophysical systems. We compare these results to data taken from the cataclysmic variable SS Cygni and also from SN 1987A, deriving physical parameters for the material involved. Fits to the data indicate a nearly time-independent photospheric temperature arising from the strong temperature dependence of opacity when hydrogen is partially ionized.

Fireball models for flares in AE Aquarii

We examine the flaring behaviour of the cataclysmic variable AE Aqr in the context of the `magnetic propeller' model for this system. The flares are thought to arise from collisions between high-density regions in the material expelled from the system after interaction with the rapidly rotating magnetosphere of the white dwarf. We calculate the first quantitative models for the flaring and calculate the time-dependent emergent optical spectra from the resulting hot, expanding ball of gas. We compare the results under different assumptions to observations and derive values for the mass, length-scale and temperature of the material involved in the flare. We see that the fits suggest that the secondary star in this system has Population II composition.

High-speed Keck spectroscopy of flares and oscillations in AE Aquarii

Using high-time-resolution (72 ms) spectroscopy of AE Aqr obtained with LRIS on Keck II we have determined the spectrum and spectral evolution of a small flare. Continuum and integrated line fluxes in the flare spectrum are measured, and the evolution of the flare is parametrized for future comparison with detailed models of the flares. We find that the velocities of the flaring components are consistent with those previously reported for AE Aqr by Welsh, Horne & Gomer and Horne. The characteristics of the 33-s oscillations are investigated: we derive the oscillation amplitude spectrum, and from that determine the spectrum of the heated regions on the rotating white dwarf. Blackbody fits to the major and minor pulse spectra and an analysis of the emission-line oscillation properties highlight the shortfalls in the simple hotspot model for the oscillations.

Eddy-driven exchange between the open ocean and a sub-ice shelf cavity

The exchange between the open ocean and sub-ice shelf cavities is important to both water mass transformations and ice shelf melting. Here we use a high-resolution (500 m) numerical model to investigate to which degree eddies produced by frontal instability at the edge of a polynya are capable of transporting dense High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) underneath an ice shelf. The applied surface buoyancy flux and ice shelf geometry is based on Ronne Ice Shelf in the southern Weddell Sea, an area of intense wintertime sea ice production where a flow of HSSW into the cavity has been observed. Results show that eddies are able to enter the cavity at the southwestern corner of the polynya where an anticyclonic rim current intersects the ice shelf front. The size and time scale of simulated eddies are in agreement with observations close to the Ronne Ice Front. The properties and strength of the inflow are sensitive to the prescribed total ice production, flushing the ice shelf cavity at a rate of 0.2–0.4 × 106 m3 s−1 depending on polynya size and magnitude of surface buoyancy flux. Eddy-driven HSSW transport into the cavity is reduced by about 50% if the model grid resolution is decreased to 2-5 km and eddies are not properly resolved.

Beyond urban legends : an emerging framework of urban ecology, as illustrated by the Baltimore Ecosystem Study

The emerging discipline of urban ecology is shifting focus from ecological processes embedded within cities to integrative studies of large urban areas as biophysical-social complexes. Yet this discipline lacks a theory. Results from the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, part of the Long Term Ecological Research Network, expose new assumptions and test existing assumptions about urban ecosystems. The findings suggest a broader range of structural and functional relationships than is often assumed for urban ecological systems. We address the relationships between social status and awareness of environmental problems, and between race and environmental hazard. We present patterns of species diversity, riparian function, and stream nitrate loading. In addition, we probe the suitability of land-use models, the diversity of soils, and the potential for urban carbon sequestration. Finally, we illustrate lags between social patterns and vegetation, the biogeochemistry of lawns, ecosystem nutrient retention, and social-biophysical feedbacks. These results suggest a framework for a theory of urban ecosystems.

Ice Shelf Water plume flow beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica

[1] A two-dimensional plume model is used to study the interaction between Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica and its underlying ocean cavity. Ice Shelf Water (ISW) plumes are initiated by the freshwater released from a melting ice shelf and, if they rise, may become supercooled and deposit marine ice due to the pressure increase in the in situ freezing temperature. The aim of this modeling study is to determine the origin of the thick accretions of marine ice at the base of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf and thus improve our understanding of ISW flow paths. The model domain is defined from measurements of ice shelf draft, and from this ISW the model is able to predict plumes that exit the cavity in the correct locations. The modeled plumes also produce basal freezing rates that account for measured marine ice thicknesses in the western part of Ronne Ice Shelf. We find that the freezing rate and plume properties are significantly influenced by the confluence of plumes from different meltwater sources. We are less successful in matching observations of marine ice under the rest of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, which we attribute primarily to this model’s neglect of circulations in the ocean outside the plume.

Radiative forcing of climate by hydrochlorofluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons

We measure infrared absorption spectra of 18 hydrochlorofluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons, seven of which do not yet appear in the literature. The spectra are used in a narrowband model of the terrestrial infrared radiation to calculate radiative forcing and global warming potentials. We investigate the sensitivity of the radiative forcing to the absorption spectrum temperature dependence, halocarbon vertical profile, stratospheric adjustment, cloudiness, spectral overlap, and latitude, and we make some recommendations for the reporting of radiative forcings that would help to resolve discrepancies between assessments. We investigate simple methods of estimating instantaneous radiative forcing directly from a molecule's absorption spectrum and we present a new method that agrees to within 0.3% with our narrowband model results.