967 resultados para Intractable Likelihood


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The efficiency with which a small beam trawl (1 x 0.5 m mouth) sampled postlarvae and juveniles of tiger prawns Penaeus esculentus and P, semisulcatus at night was estimated in 3 tropical seagrass communities (dominated by Thalassia hemprichii, Syringodium isoetifolium and Enhalus acoroides, respectively) in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria in northern Australia. An area of seagrass (40 x 3 m) was enclosed by a net and the beam trawl was repeatedly hand-hauled over the substrate. Net efficiency (q) was calculated using 4 methods: the unweighted Leslie, weighted Leslie, DeLury and Maximum-likelihood (ML) methods. The Maximum-likelihood is the preferred method for estimating efficiency because it makes the fewest assumptions and is not affected by zero catches. The major difference in net efficiencies was between postlarvae (mean ML q +/- 95% confidence limits = 0.66 +/- 0.16) and juveniles of both species (mean q for juveniles in water less than or equal to 1.0 m deep = 0.47 +/- 0.05), i.e. the beam trawl was more efficient at capturing postlarvae than juveniles. There was little difference in net efficiency for P, esculentus between seagrass types (T, hemprichii versus S. isoetifolium), even though the biomass and morphologies of seagrass in these communities differed greatly (biomasses were 54 and 204 g m(-2), respectively). The efficiency of the net appeared to be the same for juveniles of the 2 species in shallow water, but was lower for juvenile P, semisulcatus at high tide when the water was deeper (1.6 to 1.9 m) (0.35 +/- 0.08). The lower efficiency near the time of high tide is possibly because the prawns are more active at high than low tide, and can also escape above the net. Factors affecting net efficiency and alternative methods of estimating net efficiency are discussed.

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Traps baited with synthetic aggregation pheromone and fermenting bread dough were used to monitor seasonal incidence and abundance of the ripening fruit pests, Carpophilus hemipterus (L.), C. mutilatus Erichson and C. davidsoni Dobson in stone fruit orchards in the Leeton district of southern New South Wales during five seasons (1991-96). Adult beetles were trapped from September-May, but abundance varied considerably between years with the amount of rainfall in December-January having a major influence on population size and damage potential during the canning peach harvest (late February-March). Below average rainfall in December-January was associated with mean trap catches of < 10 beetles/trap/week in low dose pheromone traps during the harvest period in 1991/92 and 1993/94 and no reported damage to ripening fruit. Rainfall in December-January 1992/93 was more than double the average and mean trap catches ranged from 8-27 beetles/week during the harvest period with substantial damage to the peach crop. December-January rainfall was also above average in 1994/95 and 1995/96 and means of 50-300 beetles/trap/week were recorded in high dose pheromone traps during harvest periods. Carpophilus spp. caused economic damage to peach crops in both seasons. These data indicate that it may be possible to predict the likelihood of Carpophilus beetle damage to ripening stone fruit in inland areas of southern Australia, by routine pheromone-based monitoring of beetle populations and summer temperatures and rainfall.

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Speed is recognised as a key contributor to crash likelihood and severity, and to road safety performance in general. Its fundamental role has been recognised by making Safe Speeds one of the four pillars of the Safe System. In this context, impact speeds above which humans are likely to sustain fatal injuries have been accepted as a reference in many Safe System infrastructure policy and planning discussions. To date, there have been no proposed relationships for impact speeds above which humans are likely to sustain fatal or serious (severe) injury, a more relevant Safe System measure. A research project on Safe System intersection design required a critical review of published literature on the relationship between impact speed and probability of injury. This has led to a number of questions being raised about the origins, accuracy and appropriateness of the currently accepted impact speed–fatality probability relationships (Wramborg 2005) in many policy documents. The literature review identified alternative, more recent and more precise relationships derived from the US crash reconstruction databases (NASS/CDS). The paper proposes for discussion a set of alternative relationships between vehicle impact speed and probability of MAIS3+ (fatal and serious) injury for selected common crash types. Proposed Safe System critical impact speed values are also proposed for use in road infrastructure assessment. The paper presents the methodology and assumptions used in developing these relationships. It identifies further research needed to confirm and refine these relationships. Such relationships would form valuable inputs into future road safety policies in Australia and New Zealand.

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Sectors of the forest plantation industry in Australia are set to expand in the near future using species or hybrids of the spotted gums (Corymbia, Section Politaria). Plantations of these taxa have already been introduced across temperate and subtropical Australia, representing locally exotic introductions from native stands in Queensland and New South Wales. A literature review was undertaken to provide insights into the potential for pollen-mediated gene flow from these plantations into native populations. Three factors suggest that such gene flow is likely; (1) interspecific hybridisation within the genus has frequently been recorded, including between distantly related species from different sections, (2) apparent high levels of vertebrate pollinator activity may result in plantation pollen being moved over hundreds of kilometres, (3) much of the plantation estate is being established among closely related taxa and therefore few barriers to gene flow are expected. Across Australia, 20 of the 100 native Corymbia taxa were found to have regional level co-occurrence with plantations. These were located most notably within regions of north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland, however, co-occurrence was also found in south-west Western Australia and eastern Victoria. The native species found to have co-occurrence were then assessed for the presence of reproductive barriers at each step in the process of gene flow that may reduce the number of species at risk even further. The available data suggest three risk categories exist for Corymbia. The highest risk was for gene flow from plantations of spotted gums to native populations of spotted gums. This was based on the expected limited existence of pre- and post-zygotic barriers, substantial long-distance pollen dispersal and an apparent broad period of flowering in Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata plantations. The following risk category focussed on gene flow from Corymbia torelliana × C. c. variegata hybrid plantations into native C. c. variegata, as the barriers associated with the production and establishment of F1 hybrids have been circumvented. For the lowest risk category, Corymbia plantations may present a risk to other non-spotted gum species, however, further investigation of the particular cross-combinations is required. A list of research directions is provided to better quantify these risks. Empirical data will need to be combined within a risk assessment framework that will not only estimate the likelihood of exotic gene flow, but also consider the conservation status/value of the native populations. In addition, the potential impacts of pollen flow from plantations will need to be weighed up against their various economic and environmental benefits.

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This study investigated whether mixed-species designs can increase the growth of a tropical eucalypt when compared to monocultures. Monocultures of Eucalyptus pellita (E) and Acacia peregrina (A) and mixtures in various proportions (75E:25A, 50E:50A, 25E:75A) were planted in a replacement series design on the Atherton Tablelands of north Queensland, Australia. High mortality in the establishment phase due to repeated damage by tropical cyclones altered the trial design. Effects of experimental designs on tree growth were estimated using a linear mixed-effects model with restricted maximum likelihood analysis (REML). Volume growth of individual eucalypt trees were positively affected by the presence of acacia trees at age 5 years and this effect generally increased with time up to age 10 years. However, the stand volume and basal area increased with increasing proportions of E. pellita, due to its larger individual tree size. Conventional analysis did not offer convincing support for mixed-species designs. Preliminary individual-based modelling using a modified Hegyi competition index offered a solution and an equation that indicates acacias have positive ecological interactions (facilitation or competitive reduction) and definitely do not cause competition like a eucalypt. These results suggest that significantly increased in growth rates could be achieved with mixed-species designs. This statistical methodology could enable a better understanding of species interactions in similarly altered experiments, or undesigned mixed-species plantations.

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This study compares estimates of the census size of the spawning population with genetic estimates of effective current and long-term population size for an abundant and commercially important marine invertebrate, the brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus). Our aim was to focus on the relationship between genetic effective and census size that may provide a source of information for viability analyses of naturally occurring populations. Samples were taken in 2001, 2002 and 2003 from a population on the east coast of Australia and temporal allelic variation was measured at eight polymorphic microsatellite loci. Moments-based and maximum-likelihood estimates of current genetic effective population size ranged from 797 to 1304. The mean long-term genetic effective population size was 9968. Although small for a large population, the effective population size estimates were above the threshold where genetic diversity is lost at neutral alleles through drift or inbreeding. Simulation studies correctly predicted that under these experimental conditions the genetic estimates would have non-infinite upper confidence limits and revealed they might be overestimates of the true size. We also show that estimates of mortality and variance in family size may be derived from data on average fecundity, current genetic effective and census spawning population size, assuming effective population size is equivalent to the number of breeders. This work confirms that it is feasible to obtain accurate estimates of current genetic effective population size for abundant Type III species using existing genetic marker technology.

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1. Mammalian predators are controlled by poison baiting in many parts of the world, often to alleviate their impacts on agriculture or the environment. Although predator control can have substantial benefits, the poisons used may also be potentially harmful to other wildlife. 2. Impacts on non-target species must be minimized, but can be difficult to predict or quantify. Species and individuals vary in their sensitivity to toxins and their propensity to consume poison baits, while populations vary in their resilience. Wildlife populations can accrue benefits from predator control, which outweigh the occasional deaths of non-target animals. We review recent advances in Australia, providing a framework for assessing non-target effects of poisoning operations and for developing techniques to minimize such effects. We also emphasize that weak or circumstantial evidence of non-target effects can be misleading. 3. Weak evidence that poison baiting presents a potential risk to non-target species comes from measuring the sensitivity of species to the toxin in the laboratory. More convincing evidence may be obtained by quantifying susceptibility in the field. This requires detailed information on the propensity of animals to locate and consume poison baits, as well as the likelihood of mortality if baits are consumed. Still stronger evidence may be obtained if predator baiting causes non-target mortality in the field (with toxin detected by post-mortem examination). Conclusive proof of a negative impact on populations of non-target species can be obtained only if any observed non-target mortality is followed by sustained reductions in population density. 4. Such proof is difficult to obtain and the possibility of a population-level impact cannot be reliably confirmed or dismissed without rigorous trials. In the absence of conclusive evidence, wildlife managers should adopt a precautionary approach which seeks to minimize potential risk to non-target individuals, while clarifying population-level effects through continued research.

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The ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer region was amplified and sequenced from a selection of specimens of the Sporobolus smut Ustilago sporoboli-indici. Phylogenetic comparison with other Ustilago and Sporisorium species revealed strong support for an evolutionary radiation of Ustilago species infecting the Chloridoideae and Pooideae, of which U. sporoboli-indici forms a major lineage. Comparisons are made with other groups of plant pathogenic fungi, and it is concluded that phylogenetic analyses of potential biocontrol agents are useful for identifying pathogens that are derived from evolutionary lineages that parasitize a wide range of unrelated plants. Such pathogens are less desirable as biocontrol agents as they may have a greater likelihood of infecting plants outside their normal host ranges.

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BACKGROUND: Glyphosate-resistant cotton varieties are an important tool for weed control in Australian cotton production systems. To increase the sustainability of this technology and to minimise the likelihood of resistance evolving through its use, weed scientists, together with herbicide regulators, industry representatives and the technology owners, have developed a framework that guides the use of the technology. Central to this framework is a crop management plan (CMP) and grower accreditation course. A simulation model that takes into account the characteristics of the weed species, initial gene frequencies and any associated fitness penalties was developed to ensure that the CMP was sufficiently robust to minimise resistance risks. RESULTS: The simulations showed that, when a combination of weed control options was employed in addition to glyphosate, resistance did not evolve over the 30 year period of the simulation. CONCLUSION: These simulations underline the importance of maintaining an integrated system for weed management to prevent the evolution of glyphosate resistance, prolonging the use of glyphosate-resistant cotton.

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For the problem of speaker adaptation in speech recognition, the performance depends on the availability of adaptation data. In this paper, we have compared several existing speaker adaptation methods, viz. maximum likelihood linear regression (MLLR), eigenvoice (EV), eigenspace-based MLLR (EMLLR), segmental eigenvoice (SEV) and hierarchical eigenvoice (HEV) based methods. We also develop a new method by modifying the existing HEV method for achieving further performance improvement in a limited available data scenario. In the sense of availability of adaptation data, the new modified HEV (MHEV) method is shown to perform better than all the existing methods throughout the range of operation except the case of MLLR at the availability of more adaptation data.

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Aptitude-based student selection: A study concerning the admission processes of some technically oriented healthcare degree programmes in Finland (Orthotics and Prosthetics, Dental Technology and Optometry). The data studied consisted of conveniencesamples of preadmission information and the results of the admission processes of three technically oriented healthcare degree programmes (Orthotics and Prosthetics, Dental Technology and Optometry) in Finland during the years 1977-1986 and 2003. The number of the subjects tested and interviewed in the first samples was 191, 615 and 606, and in the second 67, 64 and 89, respectively. The questions of the six studies were: I. How were different kinds of preadmission data related to each other? II. Which were the major determinants of the admission decisions? III. Did the graduated students and those who dropped out differ from each other? IV. Was it possible to predict how well students would perform in the programmes? V. How was the student selection executed in the year 2003? VI. Should clinical vs. statistical prediction or both be used? (Some remarks are presented on Meehl's argument: "Always, we might as well face it, the shadow of the statistician hovers in the background; always the actuary will have the final word.") The main results of the study were as follows: Ability tests, dexterity tests and judgements of personality traits (communication skills, initiative, stress tolerance and motivation) provided unique, non-redundant information about the applicants. Available demographic variables did not bias the judgements of personality traits. In all three programme settings, four-factor solutions (personality, reasoning, gender-technical and age-vocational with factor scores) could be extracted by the Maximum Likelihood method with graphical Varimax rotation. The personality factor dominated the final aptitude judgements and very strongly affected the selection decisions. There were no clear differences between graduated students and those who had dropped out in regard to the four factors. In addition, the factor scores did not predict how well the students performed in the programmes. Meehl's argument on the uncertainty of clinical prediction was supported by the results, which on the other hand did not provide any relevant data for rules on statistical prediction. No clear arguments for or against the aptitude-based student selection was presented. However, the structure of the aptitude measures and their impact on the admission process are now better known. The concept of "personal aptitude" is not necessarily included in the values and preferences of those in charge of organizing the schooling. Thus, obviously the most well-founded and cost-effective way to execute student selection is to rely on e.g. the grade point averages of the matriculation examination and/or written entrance exams. This procedure, according to the present study, would result in a student group which has a quite different makeup (60%) from the group selected on the basis of aptitude tests. For the recruiting organizations, instead, "personal aptitude" may be a matter of great importance. The employers, of course, decide on personnel selection. The psychologists, if consulted, are responsible for the proper use of psychological measures.

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Acute encephalitis is an inflammation of the brain, mostly caused by viral infection. A variety of cognitive symptoms may persist after the acute stage, and neuropsychological assessment is crucial in evaluation of the outcome. The most commonly reported sequelae are memory deficits. The main aims of this study were to investigate the types of memory impairment in various encephalitides, the frequency of global amnesia following encephalitis, and the changes in the deficits during follow-up. Between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 1994, 77 adult patients under the age of 75 with acute encephalitis but without alcohol abuse, or coexisting or previous neurological diseases were consecutively referred for neuropsychological examination at the Department of Neurology, Helsinki University Central Hospital. The aetiology was established in 44/77 (57%) patients; 17 had Herpes simplex virus encephalitis (HSVE). Transient amnesia (TENA) at the acute stage of the disease was found in 70% of patients. Furthermore, similarly to brain trauma, TENA was found to indicate cognitive outcome. The frequency of persisting global amnesia syndrome with both anterograde and retrograde amnesia in all encephalitic patients was 6%. One patient had isolated retrograde amnesia, which is very rare. In HSVE the frequency of global amnesia was 12.5%, which is lower than expected. As a group, HSVE patients were not found to have a homogeneous pattern of amnesia, instead subgroups among all encephalitic patients were observed: some patients had impaired semantic memory, some had difficulty predominantly with executive functions and some suffered from an increased forgetting rate. Herpes zoster encephalitis was found to result in mild memory impairment only, and the qualitative features indicated a subcortical dysfunction. On the whole, the cognitive deficits were predominantly found to diminish during follow-up. Progressive deterioration was often associated with intractable epilepsy. The frequency of dementia was 12.5%. In conclusion, the neuropsychological outcome, especially in HSVE, was more favourable than has previously been reported, possibly due to early acyclovir medication. Memory disorders after encephalitis should not be considered uniform, and the need for neuropsychological rehabilitation should be considered case-by-case

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From a study of 3 large half-sib families of cattle, we describe linkage between DNA polymorphisms on bovine chromosome 7 and meat tenderness. Quantitative trait loci (QTL) for Longissimus lumborum peak force (LLPF) and Semitendonosis adhesion (STADH) were located to this map of DNA markers, which includes the calpastatin ( CAST) and lysyl oxidase (LOX) genes. The LLPF QTL has a maximum lodscore of 4.9 and allele substitution of approximately 0.80 of a phenotypic standard deviation, and the peak is located over the CAST gene. The STADH QTL has a maximum lodscore of 3.5 and an allele substitution of approximately 0.37 of a phenotypic standard deviation, and the peak is located over the LOX gene. This suggests 2 separate likelihood peaks on the chromosome. Further analyses of meat tenderness measures in the Longissimus lumborum, LLPF and LL compression (LLC), in which outlier individuals or kill groups are removed, demonstrate large shifts in the location of LLPF QTL, as well as confirming that there are indeed 2 QTL on bovine chromosome 7. We found that both QTL are reflected in both LLPF and LLC measurements, suggesting that both these components of tenderness, myofibrillar and connective tissue, are detected by both measurements in this muscle.

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A restricted maximum likelihood analysis applied to an animal model showed no significant differences (P > 0.05) in pH value of the longissimus dorsi measured at 24 h post-mortem (pH24) between high and low lines of Large White pigs selected over 4 years for post-weaning growth rate on restricted feeding. Genetic and phenotypic correlations between pH24 and production and carcass traits were estimated using all performance testing records combined with the pH24 measurements (5.05-7.02) on slaughtered animals. The estimate of heritability for pH24 was moderate (0.29 ± 0.18). Genetic correlations between pH24 and production or carcass composition traits, except for ultrasonic backfat (UBF), were not significantly different from zero. UBF had a moderate, positive genetic correlation with pH24 (0.24 ± 0.33). These estimates of genetic correlations affirmed that selection for increased growth rate on restricted feeding is likely to result in limited changes in pH24 and pork quality since the selection does not put a high emphasis on reduced fatness.

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The objective of this study was to examine genetic changes in reproduction traits in sows (total number born (TNB), number born alive (NBA), average piglet birth weight (ABW) and number of piglets weaned (NW), body weight prior to mating (MW), gestation length (GL) and daily food intake during lactation (DFI)) in lines of Large White pigs divergently selected over 4 years for high and low post-weaning growth rate on a restricted ration. Heritabilities and repeatabilities of the reproduction traits were also determined. The analyses were carried out on 913 litter records using average information-restricted maximum likelihood method applied to single trait animal models. Estimates of heritability for most traits were small, except for ABW (0·33) and MW (0·35). Estimates of repeatability were slightly higher than those of heritability for TNB, NBA and NW, but they were almost identical for ABW, MW, GL and DFI. After 4 years of selection, the high growth line sows had significantly heavier body weight prior to mating and produced significantly more piglets born alive with heavier average birth weight than the low line sows. There were, however, no statistical differences between the selected lines in TNB or NW. The lower food intake of high relative to low line sows during lactation was not significant, indicating that daily food intake differences found between grower pigs in the high and low lines (2·71 v. 2·76 kg/day, s.e.d. 0·024) on ad libitum feeding were not fully expressed in lactating sows. It is concluded that selection for growth rate on the restricted ration resulted in beneficial effects on important measures of reproductive performance of the sows.