Schematic structure and the modulation of propositions in economics forecasting text

Working within the framework of the branch of Linguistics known as discourse analysis, and more specifically within the current approach of genre analysis, this thesis presents an analysis of the English of economic forecasting. The language of economic forecasting is highly specialised and follows certain conventions of structure and style. This research project identifies these characteristics and explains them in terms of their communicative function. The work is based on a corpus of texts published in economic reports and surveys by major corporate bodies. These documents are targeted at an international expert readership familiar with this genre. The data is analysed at two broad levels: firstly, the macro-level of text structure which is described in terms of schema-theory, a currently influential model of analysis, and, secondly, the micro-level of authors' strategies for modulating the predictions which form the key move in the forecasting schema. The thesis aims to contribute to the newly developing field of genre analysis in a number of ways: firstly, by a coverage of a hitherto neglected but intrinsically interesting and important genre (Economic Forecasting); secondly, by testing the applicability of existing models of analysis at the level of schematic structure and proposing a genre-specific model; thirdly by offering insights into the nature of modulation of propositions which is often broadly classified as `hedging' or `modality', and which has been recently described as lq`an area for prolonged fieldwork'. This phenomenon is shown to be a key feature of this particular genre. It is suggested that this thesis, in addition to its contribution to the theory of genre analysis, provides a useful basis for work by teachers of English for Economics, an important area of English for Specific Purposes.

A method for automatically eliciting node weights in a hierarchical knowledge-based structure for reasoning with uncertainty

Hierarchical knowledge structures are frequently used within clinical decision support systems as part of the model for generating intelligent advice. The nodes in the hierarchy inevitably have varying influence on the decisionmaking processes, which needs to be reflected by parameters. If the model has been elicited from human experts, it is not feasible to ask them to estimate the parameters because there will be so many in even moderately-sized structures. This paper describes how the parameters could be obtained from data instead, using only a small number of cases. The original method [1] is applied to a particular web-based clinical decision support system called GRiST, which uses its hierarchical knowledge to quantify the risks associated with mental-health problems. The knowledge was elicited from multidisciplinary mental-health practitioners but the tree has several thousand nodes, all requiring an estimation of their relative influence on the assessment process. The method described in the paper shows how they can be obtained from about 200 cases instead. It greatly reduces the experts’ elicitation tasks and has the potential for being generalised to similar knowledge-engineering domains where relative weightings of node siblings are part of the parameter space.

Exploring supply chain related graduate programmes in the UK:a view on their structure, content and approaches

Research in skill requirements needed by supply chain/logistics (SCL) managers has been published since the early nineties, however, research on what is really taught (e.g. curriculum, learning philosophies) by universities is scant. This paper's aim is to fill in this gap by analysing SCL graduate teaching in the UK. Data from 50 SCL MSc programmes were collected from 43 universities. Findings indicate that there seems to be a gap emerging between industry's needs and the content of the programmes being offered. This gap concerns employability, problem based learning, international business and the acquisition of softer interpersonal and problem solving skills.

Does ownership structure of emerging-market firms affect their outward FDI? The case of the Indian automotive and pharmaceutical sectors

This paper examines the impact of ownership structures of emerging-market firms, which are shaped by local institutions, on the decision of these firms to undertake outward FDI. Our results suggest that family firms and firms with concentrated ownerships (both ubiquitous in emerging markets) are less likely to invest overseas, and that strategic equity holding by foreign investors facilitates outward FDI. We conclude that organisational forms such as family firms, which are optimal outcomes of institutions prevailing in emerging markets, may be suboptimal in a changing business environment in which outward FDI is necessary for access to resources and markets.

Technology transfer through international manufacturing networks:valuing technology from an owner’s perspective

Technology is a key part of organisational knowledge and gives its owners their distinctive capabilities and competitive advantages. However, to best use these assets technology often needs to be transferred and shared with others through a form of technology collaboration. This raises the important question of how technology should be valued when it is being transferred. Technology valuation has become a critical issue in most transfer transactions. Transfer arrangements and terms of payment have a significant effect on the generation and sharing of joint benefits in commercial, technical and strategic aspects. In this paper the concept of “owner's value” is explored by highlighting its structure and components and assessing the importance of factors affecting value. The influence on technology valuation of the transfer arrangement, the associated terms of payment and the interaction between the shared benefits, cost and risks are discussed.

Process and performance in international collaborative research

Motivated by policy goals to develop international research capability and our experiences of collaborative research, we wanted to learn more about the factors that influence success in collaborative research. This article presents a review of the academic literature on collaborative research, focusing on multinational teams doing international comparative research. We address the question ‘what accounts for variation in process and performance of collaborative research projects?’, through 11 themes: context; vision; reward and commitment; leadership; structure; contract; task capability; sociability; communication; finance; rhythm and pace. We then propose an agenda for future research with an analytic framework and, finally, our conclusions.

Temperature effects on fatigue thresholds and structure sensitive crack growth in a nickel-base superalloy

Fatigue thresholds and slow crack growth rates have been measured in a powder formed nickel-base superalloy from room temperature to 600°C. Two grain sizes were investigated: 5-12 μm and 50 μm. It is shown that the threshold increases with grain size, and the difference is most pronounced at room temperature. Although crack growth rates increase with temperature in both microstructures, the threshold is only temperature dependent in the material with the larger grain size. It is also only in the latter that the room temperature threshold falls when the load ratio is increased from 0.1 to 0.5. At 600°C the higher load ratio causes a 20% reduction in the threshold irrespective of grain size. The results are discussed in terms of surface roughness and oxide-induced crack closure, the former being critically related to the type of crystallographic crack growth, which is in turn shown to be both temperature and stress intensity dependent. © 1983.

Some historical extracts relevant to the discovery and application of the diffraction of X-rays by crystals to contribute to the centennial celebration and the International Year of Crystallography

Illustrative extracts from the writings of Paul P. Ewald and of Max von Laue are presented. The latter in turn contains extensive text contributions from William Lawrence Bragg. These selections we have chosen so as to indicate the nature of the discovery of X-ray diffraction from crystals (experiments undertaken by Friedrich, Knipping and von Laue) and its early and prompt application in crystal structure analyses (by William Henry Bragg and William Lawrence Bragg). The platform for these discoveries was provided by a macroscopic physics problem dealt with by Ewald in his doctoral thesis with Arnold Sommerfeld in the Munich Physics Department, which is also where von Laue was based. W.L. Bragg was a student in Cambridge who used Trinity College Cambridge as his address on his early papers; experimental work was done by him in the Cavendish Laboratory, Cambridge, and also with his father, W.H. Bragg, in the Leeds University Physics Department. Of further historical interest is the award of an Honorary DSc (Doctor of Science) degree in 1936 to Max von Laue by the University of Manchester, UK, while William Lawrence Bragg was Langworthy Professor of Physics there. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

International stock portfolio selection and performance measures recognizing higher moments of return distributions

Since the seminal works of Markowitz (1952), Sharpe (1964), and Lintner (1965), numerous studies on portfolio selection and performance measure have been based upon the mean-variance framework. However, several researchers (e.g., Arditti (1967, and 1971), Samuelson (1970), and Rubinstein (1973)) argue that the higher moments cannot be neglected unless there is reason to believe that: (i) the asset returns are normally distributed and the investor's utility function is quadratic, or (ii) the empirical evidence demonstrates that higher moments are irrelevant to the investor's decision. Based on the same argument, this dissertation investigates the impact of higher moments of return distributions on three issues concerning the 14 international stock markets.^ First, the portfolio selection with skewness is determined using: the Polynomial Goal Programming in which investor preferences for skewness can be incorporated. The empirical findings suggest that the return distributions of international stock markets are not normally distributed, and that the incorporation of skewness into an investor's portfolio decision causes a major change in the construction of his optimal portfolio. The evidence also indicates that an investor will trade expected return of the portfolio for skewness. Moreover, when short sales are allowed, investors are better off as they attain higher expected return and skewness simultaneously.^ Second, the performance of international stock markets are evaluated using two types of performance measures: (i) the two-moment performance measures of Sharpe (1966), and Treynor (1965), and (ii) the higher-moment performance measures of Prakash and Bear (1986), and Stephens and Proffitt (1991). The empirical evidence indicates that higher moments of return distributions are significant and relevant to the investor's decision. Thus, the higher moment performance measures should be more appropriate to evaluate the performances of international stock markets. The evidence also indicates that various measures provide a vastly different performance ranking of the markets, albeit in the same direction.^ Finally, the inter-temporal stability of the international stock markets is investigated using the Parhizgari and Prakash (1989) algorithm for the Sen and Puri (1968) test which accounts for non-normality of return distributions. The empirical finding indicates that there is strong evidence to support the stability in international stock market movements. However, when the Anderson test which assumes normality of return distributions is employed, the stability in the correlation structure is rejected. This suggests that the non-normality of the return distribution is an important factor that cannot be ignored in the investigation of inter-temporal stability of international stock markets. ^

The structure of games

Computer Game Playing has been an active area of research since Samuel’s first Checkers player (Samuel 1959). Recently interest beyond the classic games of Chess and Checkers has led to competitions such as the General Game Playing competition, in which players have no beforehand knowledge of the games they are to play, and the Computer Poker Competition which force players to reason about imperfect information under conditions of uncertainty. The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the area of General Game Playing both specifically and generally. On the specific side, we describe the design and implementation of our General Game Playing system OGRE. This system includes an innovative method for feature extraction that helped it to achieve second and fourth place in two international General Game Playing competitions. On the more general side, we also introduce the Regular Game Language, which goes beyond current works to provide support for both stochastic and imperfect information games as well as the more traditional games.

Through the prisms of gender and power: Agency in international courtship between Colombian women and American men

Since 1999 Colombia has experienced dramatic increases in emigration, particularly the emigration of women towards the U.S. as fiancées of U.S. citizens or residents. Parallel to this trend is the increased number of websites facilitating these Colombian-American matches. This dissertation investigates the agency of Colombian women and American men who pursue romantic courtship through the services of International Marriage Brokers (IMBs) from the “Gendered Geographies of Power” (GGP) framework of analysis. It examines how both groups’ social locations, their positioning in multiple axes of differentiation including gender, nationality and social class, affects how and why they exert their agency across and within different geographic scales. Most importantly, it investigates the role the imagination plays (imagination work) in both men and women’s agency, an aspect of the GGP framework that has been under-researched and theorized to date. The research also finds that this imagination work is promoted and cultivated in deeply gendered ways by IMBs seeking to profit off this transnational courtship. ^ Employing data collected via interviews and content analysis of IMBs’ websites, the dissertation analyzes comparatively the expectations each group (women, men and IMBs) bring to their imagination work and experiences of the courtship marketplace. A central question posed and answered in the dissertation is “What do women and men courting each other in cyberspace seek and do they find it?” The dissertation finds that the men seek “traditional” women and the women seek “liberated” less “macho” men. Ironically, the men find Colombian women who are among the most “liberated” women in their homeland but who downplay this aspect of themselves in order to strategically find a more modern man and migrate abroad where they expect to find greater personal and professional opportunities.^

Translating international norms: Filters to women's rights in Lebanon

In 1979 the United Nations passed the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW), an international bill of rights for women. Much scholarship has focused on the degree to which states have adopted these new international gender norms, but have paid little attention to the fact that norms change in the processes of implementation. This dissertation focuses on that process assessing the translation of international gender equality norm in Lebanon.^ The study traces global gender equality norms as they are translated into a complex context characterized by a political structure that divides powers according to confessional groups, a social structure that empowers men as heads of families, and a geopolitical structure that opposes a secular West to the Muslim East. Through a comparison of three campaigns – the campaign to combat violence against women, the campaign to change personal status codes, and the campaign to give women equal rights to pass on their nationality – the study traces different ways in which norms are translated as activists negotiate the structures that make up the Lebanese context. Through ethnographic research, the process of norm translation was found to produce various filters, i.e., constellations of arguments put forward by activists as they seek to match international norms to the local context. The dissertation identifies six such filters and finds that these filters often have created faithless translations of international norms.^

Gender politics, women's rights and international norms in Lebanon

The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the reasons for the under-representation of women in politics in Lebanon, and the role of international norms of gender equality in bringing about change. For those questions, I examined the particular relevance of confessionalism arguing that a confessional social structure and political system empower patriarchal forms of organization with detrimental effects to women's political participation. This dissertation makes innovative contributions to two types of literature. First, literature on the barriers to women being elected into political office has put strong emphasis on electoral systems of representation, but has rarely addressed the way in which electoral systems that seek to ensure minority representation – such as the confessional system in Lebanon – operate to keep women out of politics. This study provides an important corrective to this literature by exploring a non-Western case and broadening theorizing on the issue. Second, constructivist literature in the field of International Relations has argued that international norms of gender equality – including gender quotas – have diffused throughout the 20th century. This research illustrates the mechanisms that counteract international diffusion, and adds to our understanding of how international norms are translated into domestic contexts.

First Draft of Office for Student Affairs Structure

Chart illustrating the organizational structure of the College of Medicine's Student Affairs department.