Importance of international linkages for local know-how flows. Some econometric evidence from Belgium

External knowledge is an important input for the innovation process of firms. Increasingly, this knowledge is likely to originate fromoutside of their national borders. This explains the preoccupationof policymakers with stimulating local technology transfers coming from international firms. We find that firms that have access to the international technology market are more likely to transfer technology to the local economy. In doing so, we qualify the traditional assertion that multinational firms are more likelyto transfer technology to the local economy. Once controlled for the superior access to the international technology market that multinationals enjoy, we find that these firms are not more likelyto transfer technology to the local economy compared to exportingor local firms that have access to the international technology market. In summary, the main result of this paper is that it isnot so much the international character of the firms, but rathertheir access to the international technology market that is important for generating external knowledge transfers to the local economy.

International Update, March-April 2008

News from the Iowa Department of Economic Development International Team

Stock returns, term structure, inflation and real activity: An international perspective

This paper analyses the empirical interdependences among assetreturns, real activity and inflation from a multicountry and internationalpoint of view. We find that nominal stock returns are significantly relatedto inflation only in the US, that the US term structure of interest ratespredicts both domestic and foreign inflation rates while foreign termstructures do not have this predictive power and that innovations in inflationand exchange rates induce insignificant responses of real and financialvariables. An interpretation of the dynamics and some policy implicationsof the results are provided.

Sources and propagation of international cycles: Common shocks or transmission?

This paper studies the generation and transmission of international cycles in a multi-country model with production and consumption interdependencies. Two sources of disturbance are considered and three channels of propagation are compared. In the short run the contemporaneous correlation of disturbances determines the main features of the transmission. In the medium run production interdependencies account for the transmission of technology shocks and consumption interdependencies account for the transmission of government shocks. Technology disturbances, which are mildly correlated across countries, are more successful than government expenditure disturbances in reproducing actual data. The model also accounts for the low cross country consumption correlations observed in the data.

Does money matter in shaping domestic business cycles? An international investigation (with appendices)

We study the contribution of money to business cycle fluctuations in the US,the UK, Japan, and the Euro area using a small scale structural monetary business cycle model. Constrained likelihood-based estimates of the parameters areprovided and time instabilities analyzed. Real balances are statistically importantfor output and inflation fluctuations. Their contribution changes over time. Models giving money no role provide a distorted representation of the sources of cyclicalfluctuations, of the transmission of shocks and of the events of the last 40 years.

Keeping up with the Joneses: An international asset pricing model

We derive an international asset pricing model that assumes local investorshave preferences of the type "keeping up with the Joneses." In aninternational setting investors compare their current wealth with that oftheir peers who live in the same country. In the process of inferring thecountry's average wealth, investors incorporate information from the domesticmarket portfolio. In equilibrium, this gives rise to a multifactor CAPMwhere, together with the world market price of risk, there existscountry-speciffic prices of risk associated with deviations from thecountry's average wealth level. The model performs signifficantly better, interms of explaining cross-section of returns, than the international CAPM.Moreover, the results are robust, both for conditional and unconditionaltests, to the inclusion of currency risk, macroeconomic sources of risk andthe Fama and French HML factor.

A theory of international conflict management and sanctioning

In this paper we analyze sanctioning policies in international law. We develop a model of international military conflict where the conflicting countries can be a target of international sanctions. These sanctions constitute an equilibrium outcome of an international political market for sanctions, where different countries trade political influence. We show that the level of sanctions in equilibrium is strictly positive but limited, in the sense that higher sanctions would exacerbate the military conflict, not reduce it. We then propose an alternative interpretation to the perceived lack of effectiveness of international sanctions, by showing that the problem might not be one of undersanctioning but of oversanctioning.

Os Liames de Solidariedade entre o Estado e as Organizações de Economia Solidária na Luta contra Pobreza nas Comunidades Rurais em Cabo Verde

La thèse a comme but comprendre, à la lumière du paradigme du don et de la perspective théorique de l’économie solidaire, la nature des relations de coopération entre l’Etat et les Associations Communautaires de Développement, dans le cadre de la lutte contre la pauvreté dans les communautés rurales au Cap Vert. L’objet principal de l’étude est le Programme de la Lutte Contre la Pauvreté et, particulièrement, son (Sous)Programme de la Lutte Contre la Pauvreté au milieu rural. Le PLPR, par sa conception de pauvreté, méthodologie et stratégie d’intervention décentralisé au sein des Associations Communautaires de Développement et respectives communautés, s’est révélé comme le modèle qui illustre mieux comment les deux modalités de solidarité démocratique, réciprocité et redistribution, s’interragent et participent d’un processus dynamique de génération, construction et multiplication d’initiatives et d’expériences d’économie solidaires; d’ampliation et approfondissement du processus de démocratisation de l’Etat et d’approximation de la gestion publique des communautés rurales pauvres. Subsidiairement, le paradigme du don, particulièrement, le concept de solidarité démocratique, nous a forcé à proposer un autre regard sur l’économie (conventionnelle) du Cap Vert, à partir de la réflexion et analyse sur la relation entre l’Etat et la diaspora capverdienne, propagée autour du monde, comme hypothèse dont les liens culturelles et d’identités qui existent entre l’Etat et la Diaspora constituent la motivation principale des émigrants pour envoyer, régulièrement, leurs revenues au Cap Vert. De son côté, à partir des relations de coopération entre l’Etat capverdien et ses traditionnels partenaires internationaux de développement, nous avons formulé l’hypothèse dont l’Aide Publique au Développement consiste en un système international de redistribution de ressources publiques au Cap Vert, (dons aux étrangers), pour faire face aux défis de la lutte pour l’éradication de la pauvreté et de la promotion du développement socioéconomique, représentant ainsi, comme l’équivalent empirique du concept de solidarité distributive international.

International Update, July/August 2008

International Business Development News

Why do differences in the degree of fiscal decentralization endure?

A notable difference between the U.S. and many countries in Europe is in the degree of fiscal decentralization. Regional (and local) governments in the U.S. have significant autonomy in setting their own taxes and determining how to spend their revenues. This is not true of their counterparts in Spain, France, the United Kingdom, Czech Republic and many other European countries. In recent years, many countries formerly subject to dictatorshipsor communism have been considering decentralizing fiscal responsibility to sub-national governments as part of the process of democratization (see Bird and Ebel, forthcoming). Yet, much of Europe remains immune to adopting effective decentralization in which sub-national units have true taxing authority.

International Update, September-October 2008

Business Development news from the Iowa International Office Trade Team.