Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Matemática e Aplicações Especialização em Actuariado, Estatística e Investigação Operacional

How Were Conflicts of Interest Handled?

Conflicts of interest were potentially great but they were minimized by the great conviction from both Doctors and Health Ministry that something had to be done to improve data on perinatal health. To decrease the number of hospitals where deliveries took place, to concentrate doctors, nurses and equipment, to define staff and to acquire equipment and to train nurses and paediatricians was the way. One the point of view of cost-effectiveness, centralization of expensive technologies, and development of expertise concentrating cases in a same centre - Surgery, VLBW, etc- and lowering mortality rates and get better outcomes were clear health gains. In 1989 after the political decision of closing small maternities the committee return to villages and cities to explain to political local power and people, the decision, which kind of care they will have in the future, why and expected gains. Level I hospitals and Health Centers stop to have deliveries; Health Centers were given a great responsibility: the follow up of the most part of the normal pregnancies by GP. There was no economic pressure because the National Health Service is free, there are no economic incentives for obstetrical or neonatal care, hospitals are financed through ICD, hospital level is defined according to both delivery and newborn care. In 1989 the rule was “No results can be obtained without the interested and responsible participation of all – institutions and people”. At that time the emphasis was on training. There are geographic influences on regionalization for example for islands and inner and far geographic areas. Also we would like to emphasize the influence of demographics on regionalization. As birth rate continues to decrease the hospitals left open 20 years ago with more than 1500 deliveries have to be closed now because the number of deliveries decreased. It was much more difficult and unacceptable to close some few maternities now than 20 years ago. All the difference was that at that time reasons were explained and now it was a Minister order. Other fearful events are the opening of private hospitals, the lowering gross national income, the economic difficulties and financial problems.

The launch of integrative fixed video phone in Spain: Technology-market transfer plan

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The fitting of the German yield curve: A dynamic approach using latent, macroeconomic and stock market variables

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in the Eurozone

To study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy across the different countries of the eurozone, I develop an identification scheme to disentangle conventional from non-conventional policy shocks, using futures contracts on overnight interest rates and the size of the European Central Bank balance sheet. Setting these shocks as endogenous variables in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, along with the CPI and the employment rate, estimated impulse response functions of policy to macroeconomic variables are studied. I find that unconventional policy shocks generated mixed effects in inflation but had a positive impact on employment, with the exception of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy where the employment response is close to zero or negative. The heterogeneity that characterizes the responses shows that the monetary policy measures taken in recent years were not sufficient to stabilize the economies of the eurozone countries under more severe economic conditions.

The determinants of net interest margins & net interest spreads in the Russian & Japanese Commercial Banking sectors

This study presents an empirical investigation of the determinants of net interest margins and spreads in the Russian and Japanese banking sectors with a particular focus on commercial banks. Net interest mar-gins and spreads serve as indicators of financial intermediation efficiency. This paper employed a bank-level unbalanced panel dataset prolonging from 2005 to 2014. My main empirical results show that bank characteristics explain the most of the variation in not only net interest margins but also in spreads. Capi-talization, liquidity risk, inflation, economic growth, private and government debt are important determi-nants of margin in Russia. In Japan to the contrary loan and deposit market concentration along with bank size do predominate. Common significant variables in both countries are the substitution effect, cost effi-ciency and profitability. Turning to net interest spreads, micro- and macro-specific variables are the main significant drivers in Russia. I reach the conclusion that there are no significant determinants of net interest spreads in Japan within the original selection of variables, but operating efficiency and deposits to total funding seem to prevail. In both countries, there are solid differences in the net interest margins as well as spreads once the pre- and the post-crisis periods are considered.

Using artificial neural networks to generate trading signals for crude oil, copper and gold futures

In this thesis, a feed-forward, back-propagating Artificial Neural Network using the gradient descent algorithm is developed to forecast the directional movement of daily returns for WTI, gold and copper futures. Out-of-sample back-test results vary, with some predictive abilities for copper futures but none for either WTI or gold. The best statistically significant hit rate achieved was 57% for copper with an absolute return Sharpe Ratio of 1.25 and a benchmarked Information Ratio of 2.11.

Growth rate of a terra firme rain forest in Brazilian Amazonia over an eight-year period in response to logging

This paper deals with growth rates of trees > 5cm dbh over an eight-year period from 257 species at the Tapajós National Forest. The discussion is centred on the behaviour of the forest after logging. Permanent sample plots were established in 1981 and measured at the first time. The area was logged in 1982. Measurements after logging occurred in 1983, 1987 and 1989. Considering all species together, diameter increment was similar for both intensities of logging until five years after logging. Light-demanding species showed significantly higher growth rates than shade-tolerant species in the logged forest, with greater increment in the heavier treatment intensity. Commercial species also had higher growth rates in the heavier logged area, although those were significantly different only in the period from one to five years after logging. In the undisturbed forest, growth rates increased with increasing dbh size. At species level, growth rate varied between and within treatments, as well as between trees within species, depending mainly on degree of canopy opening. The logging favoured the growth of commercial species, chiefly the light-demanders. Therefore, if the same growth conditions continue being given, for example by silvicultural treatments, to those species of commercial interest, the forest would reach a stock available for harvesting around year 30 after logging. However, the high variation in increment rates indicates that an eight-year period is not sufficient to allow predictions on cutting cycles or polycyclic management systems for the study forest.

High strain rate constitutive modeling forhistorical structures subjected to blast loading

Doctoral Thesis Civil Engineering

The role of marine anaerobic bacteria and archaea in bioenergy production

The development of products from marine bioresources is gaining importance in the biotechnology sector. The global market for Marine Biotechnology products and processes was, in 2010, estimated at 2.8 billion with a cumulative annual growth rate of 510% (Børresen et al., Marine biotechnology: a new vision and strategy for Europe. Marine Board Position Paper 15. Beernem: Marine Board-ESF, 2010). Marine Biotechnology has the potential to make significant contributions towards the sustainable supply of food and energy, the solution of climate change and environmental degradation issues, and the human health. Besides the creation of jobs and wealth, it will contribute to the development of a greener economy. Thus, huge expectations anticipate the global development of marine biotechnology. The marine environment represents more than 70% of the Earths surface and includes the largest ranges of temperature, light and pressure encountered by life. These diverse marine environments still remain largely unexplored, in comparison with terrestrial habitats. Notwithstanding, efforts are being done by the scientific community to widespread the knowledge on oceans microbial life. For example, the J. Craig Venter Institute, in collaboration with the University of California, San Diego (UCSD), and Scripps Institution of Oceanography have built a state-of-the-art computational resource along with software tools to catalogue and interpret microbial life in the worlds oceans. The potential application of the marine biotechnology in the bioenergy sector is wide and, certainly, will evolve far beyond the current interest in marine algae. This chapter revises the current knowledge on marine anaerobic bacteria and archaea with a role in bio-hydrogen production, syngas fermentation and bio-electrochemical processes, three examples of bioenergy production routes.

Production and extraction of polysaccharides and oligosaccharides and their use as new food additives

Polysaccharides and oligosaccharides can improve quality and enhance nutritional value of final food products due to their technological and nutritional features ranging from their capacity to improve texture to their effect as dietary fibers. For this reason, they are among the most studied ingredients in the food industry. The use of natural polysaccharides and oligosaccharides as food additives has been a reality since the food industry understood their potential technological and nutritional applications. Currently, the replacement of traditional ingredients and/or the synergy between traditional ingredients and polysaccharides and oligosaccharides are perceived as promising approaches by the food industry. Traditionally, polysaccharides have been used as thickening, emulsifying, and stabilizing agents, however, at this moment polysaccharides and oligosaccharides claim health and nutritional advantages, thus opening a new market of nutritional and functional foods. Indeed, their use as nutritional food ingredients enabled the food industry to develop a countless number of applications, e.g., fat replacers, prebiotics, dietary fiber, and antiulcer agents. Based on this, among the scientific community and food industry, in the last years many research studies and commercial products showed the possibility of using either new or already used sources (though with changed properties) of polysaccharides for the production of food additives with new and enhanced properties. The increasing interest in such products is clearly illustrated by the market figures and consumption trends. As an example, the sole market of hydrocolloids is estimated to reach $7 billion in 2018. Moreover, oligosaccharides can be found in more than 500 food products resulting in a significant daily consumption. A recent study from the Transparency Market Research on Prebiotic Ingredients Market reported that prebiotics' demand was worth $2.3 billion in 2012 and it is estimated to reach $4.5 billion in 2018, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 11.4% between 2012 and 2018. The entrance of this new generation of food additives in the market, often claiming health and nutritional benefits, imposes an impartial analysis by the legal authorities regarding the accomplishment of requirements that have been established for introducing novel ingredients/food, including new poly- and oligosaccharides. This chapter deals with the potential use of polysaccharides and oligosaccharides as food additives, as well as alternative sources of these compounds and their possible applications in food products. Moreover, the regulation process to introduce novel polysaccharides and oligosaccharides in the market as food additives and to assign them health claims is discussed.

Labour market frictions, social policies, and barriers to technology adoption

Barriers to technological changes have recently been shown to be a key element in explaining differences in output per worker across countries. This study examines the role that labour market features and institutions have in explaining barriers to technology adoption. I build a model that includes labour market frictions, capital market imperfections and heterogeneity in workers' skills. I found that the unemployment rate together with the welfare losses that workers experiment after displacement are key factors in explaining the existence of barriers to technology adoption. Moreover, I found that none of these factors alone is sufficient to build these barriers. The theory also suggests that welfare policies like the unemployment insurance system may enhance these kinds of barriers while policies like a severance payment system financed by an income tax seem to be more effective in eliminating them.

The daily market for funds in Europe: what has changed with the EMU?

This paper presents evidence that the existence of deposit and lending facilities combined with an averaging provision for the reserve requirement are powerful tools to stabilize the overnight rate. We reach this conclusion by comparing the behavior of this rate in Germany before and after the start of the EMU. The analysis of the German experience is useful because it allows to isolate the effects on the overnight rate of these particular instruments of monetary policy. To show that this outcome is a general conclusion and not a particular result of the German market, we develop a theoretical model of reserve management which is able to reproduce our empirical findings.

Interactions between product and labour market reforms

Labour market reforms face very often opposition from the employed workers, because it normally reduces their wages. Also product market regulations are regularly biased towards too much benefitting the firms. As a result there remain many frictions in both the labour and product markets that hinder an optimal functioning of the economy. These issues have recently received a lot of attention in the economics literature and scholars have been looking for politically viable reforms in both markets. However, despite its potential importance, there has been done virtually no research on the interaction between reforms in product and labour markets. We find that when combining reforms, the opposition for reforms decreases considerably. This is because there exist complementarities and the gains in total welfare can be more evenly distributed over the interest groups. Moreover, the interaction of reforms offers a way out for the so-called 'sclerosis' effect.