Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models

We utilize energy budget diagnostics from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate the models' climate forcing since preindustrial times employing an established regression technique. The climate forcing evaluated this way, termed the adjusted forcing (AF), includes a rapid adjustment term associated with cloud changes and other tropospheric and land-surface changes. We estimate a 2010 total anthropogenic and natural AF from CMIP5 models of 1.9 ± 0.9 W m−2 (5–95% range). The projected AF of the Representative Concentration Pathway simulations are lower than their expected radiative forcing (RF) in 2095 but agree well with efficacy weighted forcings from integrated assessment models. The smaller AF, compared to RF, is likely due to cloud adjustment. Multimodel time series of temperature change and AF from 1850 to 2100 have large intermodel spreads throughout the period. The intermodel spread of temperature change is principally driven by forcing differences in the present day and climate feedback differences in 2095, although forcing differences are still important for model spread at 2095. We find no significant relationship between the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of a model and its 2003 AF, in contrast to that found in older models where higher ECS models generally had less forcing. Given the large present-day model spread, there is no indication of any tendency by modelling groups to adjust their aerosol forcing in order to produce observed trends. Instead, some CMIP5 models have a relatively large positive forcing and overestimate the observed temperature change.

Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high-resolution models in the present climate

The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO₂ concentration

When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. 1). There is a need to narrow uncertainty2 in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow—especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods.

Nowhere

Nowhere is part on the series notebook architecture. The painting works with a language of forms to construct rather than represent architectural space. What the painting seeks to construct is a dialogue on depth wherein painting is conceived as quasi phenomenological project.

'Outside Architecture': lecture at The British School at Rome

Renshaw and Donszelmann lecture on their projects for the collaborative group 'Outside Architecture' this was part of a series of papers on the subject of architecture and art curated by The British School at Rome

Hidden

The exhibition Hidden researches the relationship between an artist book and paintings that use the form of a book. The exhibition investigates the overlaps between reading and looking.

Screens

Summer Saloon presented at Lion and Lamb an exhibition venue dedicated to showing current painting. My work "Screens" constructs rather than represents an existing architectural space. The painting investigates an experience of phenomenological depth distinct from the model of perspective depth.

The perfect death - Horizons ( title of painting Horizon )

The exhibition investigates the unrepresentable and considers the distinct ways invisible forces can be given visual manifestation through painted images.

One and One and One

One and One and One is a collaborative project organized by Tim Renshaw with Outside Architecture. The work in the exhibition explored the incomplete and addresses it as an active process that opens up architectural and spatial structure to new forms of experience.

John Wikins

My essay is an analysis of the paintings of John Wilkins that contextualizes his mode of abstract painting within the semiological turn of post eighties painting.

Engineering the electronic bandgaps and band edge positions in carbon-substituted 2D boron nitride: a first-principles investigation

Modification of graphene to open a robust gap in its electronic spectrum is essential for its use in field effect transistors and photochemistry applications. Inspired by recent experimental success in the preparation of homogeneous alloys of graphene and boron nitride (BN), we consider here engineering the electronic structure and bandgap of C2xB1−xN1−x alloys via both compositional and configurational modification. We start from the BN end-member, which already has a large bandgap, and then show that (a) the bandgap can in principle be reduced to about 2 eV with moderate substitution of C (x < 0.25); and (b) the electronic structure of C2xB1−xN1−x can be further tuned not only with composition x, but also with the configuration adopted by C substituents in the BN matrix. Our analysis, based on accurate screened hybrid functional calculations, provides a clear understanding of the correlation found between the bandgap and the level of aggregation of C atoms: the bandgap decreases most when the C atoms are maximally isolated, and increases with aggregation of C atoms due to the formation of bonding and anti-bonding bands associated with hybridization of occupied and empty defect states. We determine the location of valence and conduction band edges relative to vacuum and discuss the implications on the potential use of 2D C2xB1−xN1−x alloys in photocatalytic applications. Finally, we assess the thermodynamic limitations on the formation of these alloys using a cluster expansion model derived from first-principles.

Effect of high temperature and water stress on groundnuts under field conditions

Groundnuts cultivated in the semiarid tropics are often exposed to water stress (mid-season and end season) and high temperature (> 34 °C) during the critical stages of flowering and pod development. This study evaluated the effects of both water stress and high temperature under field conditions at ICRISAT, India. Treatments included two irrigations (full irrigation, 100 % of crop evapotranspiration; and water stress, 40 % of crop evapotranspiration), four temperature treatments from a combination of two sowing dates and heat tunnels with mean temperatures from sowing to maturity of 26.3° (T1), 27.3° (T2), 29.0° (T3) and 29.7 °C (T4) and two genotypes TMV2 and ICGS 11. The heat tunnels were capable of raising the day temperature by > 10 °C compared to ambient. During the 20-day high-temperature treatment at flowering, mean temperatures were 33.8° (T1), 41.6° (T2), 38.7° (T3) and 43.5°C (T4). The effects of water stress and high temperature were additive and temporary for both vegetative and pod yield, and disappeared as soon as high-temperature stress was removed. Water use efficiency was significantly affected by the main effects of temperature and cultivar and not by water stress treatments. Genotypic differences for tolerance to high temperature can be attributed to differences in flowering pattern, flower number, peg-set and harvest index. It can be inferred from this study that genotypes that are tolerant to water stress are also tolerant to high temperature under field conditions. In addition, genotypes with an ability to establish greater biomass and with a significantly greater partitioning of biomass to pod yield would be suitable for sustaining higher yields in semiarid tropics with high temperature and water stress.

Matching roots to their environment

Background Plants form the base of the terrestrial food chain and provide medicines, fuel, fibre and industrial materials to humans. Vascular land plants rely on their roots to acquire the water and mineral elements necessary for their survival in nature or their yield and nutritional quality in agriculture. Major biogeochemical fluxes of all elements occur through plant roots, and the roots of agricultural crops have a significant role to play in soil sustainability, carbon sequestration, reducing emissions of greenhouse gasses, and in preventing the eutrophication of water bodies associated with the application of mineral fertilisers. ● Scope This article provides the context for a Special Issue of Annals of Botany on ‘Matching Roots to Their Environment’. It first examines how land plants and their roots evolved, describes how the ecology of roots and their rhizospheres contributes to the acquisition of soil resources, and discusses the influence of plant roots on biogeochemical cycles. It then describes the role of roots in overcoming the constraints to crop production imposed by hostile or infertile soils, illustrates root phenotypes that improve the acquisition of mineral elements and water, and discusses high-throughput methods to screen for these traits in the laboratory, glasshouse and field. Finally, it considers whether knowledge of adaptations improving the acquisition of resources in natural environments can be used to develop root systems for sustainable agriculture in the future.

Field phenotyping of potato to assess root and shoot characteristics associated with drought tolerance

Aims Potatoes are a globally important source of food whose production requires large inputs of fertiliser and water. Recent research has highlighted the importance of the root system in acquiring resources. Here measurements, previously generated by field phenotyping, tested the effect of root size on maintenance of yield under drought (drought tolerance). Methods Twelve potato genotypes, including genotypes with extremes of root size, were grown to maturity in the field under a rain shelter and either irrigated or subjected to drought. Soil moisture, canopy growth, carbon isotope discrimination and final yields were measured. Destructively harvested field phenotype data were used as explanatory variables in a general linear model (GLM) to investigate yield under conditions of drought or irrigation. Results Drought severely affected the small rooted genotype Pentland Dell but not the large rooted genotype Cara. More plantlets, longer and more numerous stolons and stolon roots were associated with drought tolerance. Previously measured carbon isotope discrimination did not correlate with the effect of drought. Conclusions These data suggest that in-field phenotyping can be used to identify useful characteristics when known genotypes are subjected to an environmental stress. Stolon root traits were associated with drought tolerance in potato and could be used to select genotypes with resilience to drought.

New furoquinoline alkaloid and flavanone glycoside derivatives from the leaves of Oricia suaveolens and Oricia renieri (Rutaceae)

Fractionation of the methanol extract of the leaves of Oricia renieri and Oricia suaveolens (Rutaceae) led to the isolation of 13 compounds including the hitherto unknown furoquinoline alkaloid named 6,7-methylenedioxy-5-hydroxy-8-methoxydictamnine (1) and a flavanone glycoside named 5-hydroxy-40-methoxy-7-O-[a-Lrhamnopyranosyl(1000→500)-b-D-apiofuranosyl]-flavanoside (2), together with 11 known compounds (3–13). The structures of the compounds were determined by comprehensive analyses of their 1D and 2D NMR, mass spectral data and comparison. All compounds isolated were examined for their activity against human carcinoma cell lines. The alkaloids 1, 5, 12, 13 and the phenolic 2, 8, 11 tested compounds exhibited non-selective moderate cytotoxic activity with IC50 8.7–15.9mM whereas compounds 3, 4, 6, 7, 9 and 10 showed low activity.