Misleading Population Estimates: Biases and Consistency of Visual Surveys and Matrix Modelling in the Endangered Bearded Vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.

Trial history biases the spatial programming of antisaccades

The historical context in which saccades are made influences their latency and error rates, but less is known about how context influences their spatial parameters. We recently described a novel spatial bias for antisaccades, in which the endpoints of these responses deviate towards alternative goal locations used in the same experimental block, and showed that expectancy (prior probability) is at least partly responsible for this 'alternate-goal bias'. In this report we asked whether trial history also plays a role. Subjects performed antisaccades to a stimulus randomly located on the horizontal meridian, on a 40° angle downwards from the horizontal meridian, or on a 40° upward angle, with all three locations equally probable on any given trial. We found that the endpoints of antisaccades were significantly displaced towards the goal location of not only the immediately preceding trial (n - 1) but also the penultimate (n - 2) trial. Furthermore, this bias was mainly present for antisaccades with a short latency of <250 ms and was rapidly corrected by secondary saccades. We conclude that the location of recent antisaccades biases the spatial programming of upcoming antisaccades, that this historical effect persists over many seconds, and that it influences mainly rapidly generated eye movements. Because corrective saccades eliminate the historical bias, we suggest that the bias arises in processes generating the response vector, rather than processes generating the perceptual estimate of goal location.

Hypereosinophilia driven by GM-CSF in large-cell carcinoma of the lung

In contrast to leukocytosis, paraneoplastic hypereosinophilia is uncommon in lung cancer. We present a patient with large-cell carcinoma of the lung, in which cancer cells generate large amounts of GM-CSF leading to a leukemoid reaction with prominent hypereosinophilia and potentially involved in autocrine tumor stimulation.

AN EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF A VORTEX-DRIVEN AIR LIFT PUMP

A prototype vortex-driven air lift pump was developed and experimentally evaluated. It was designed to be easily manufactured and scalable for arbitrary riser diameters. The model tested fit in a 2 inch diameter riser with six air injection nozzles through which airwas injected helically around the perimeter of the riser at an angle of 70º from pure tangential injection. The pump was intended to transport both water and sediment over a large range of submergence ratios. A test apparatus was designed to be able to simulate deep water or oceanic environments. The resulting test setup had a finite reservoir; over the course of a test, the submergence ratio varied from 0.48 to 0.39. For air injection pressures ranging from 10 to 60 psig and for air flow rates of 6 to 15 scfm, the induced water discharge flow rates varied only slightly, due to the limited range of available submergence ratios. The anticipated simulation of deep water environment, with a corresponding equivalent increase in thesubmergence ratio, proved unattainable. The pump prototype successfully transported both water and sediment (sand). Thepercent volume yield of the sediment was in an acceptable range. The pump design has been subsequently used successfully in a 4 inch configuration in a follow-on project. A computer program was written in Matlab to simulate the pump characteristics. The program output water pressures at the location of air injection which were physicallycompatible with the experimental data.

Social Context and Economic Biases in Representation

This article explores the role of political context in shaping economic biases in representation-the degree to which wealthy citizens' views are more strongly represented than poorer citizens' views in the choices of policymakers. I develop a general model that explains why poorer citizens will be better represented relative to the rich in certain political contexts than others, arguing that the relative representation of the poor will be stronger in contexts that make the views of the poor relevant and accessible to policymakers. I then derive several specific hypotheses that flow from this model and test these hypotheses through a study of the dyadic relationships between citizens and their representatives in the U.S. Congress. The results show that poorer citizens are better represented relative to the rich in Congressional districts that are electorally competitive, have low median incomes, have relatively equal distributions of incomes, have a significant organized labor presence, and are represented by Democrats.

Strong Dynamical Heterogeneity and Universal Scaling in Driven Granular Fluids

Large-scale simulations of two-dimensional bidisperse granular fluids allow us to determine spatial correlations of slow particles via the four-point structure factor S-4 (q, t). Both cases, elastic (epsilon = 1) and inelastic (epsilon < 1) collisions, are studied. As the fluid approaches structural arrest, i.e., for packing fractions in the range 0.6 <= phi <= 0.805, scaling is shown to hold: S-4 (q, t)/chi(4)(t) = s(q xi(t)). Both the dynamic susceptibility chi(4)(tau(alpha)) and the dynamic correlation length xi(tau(alpha)) evaluated at the alpha relaxation time tau(alpha) can be fitted to a power law divergence at a critical packing fraction. The measured xi(tau(alpha)) widely exceeds the largest one previously observed for three-dimensional (3d) hard sphere fluids. The number of particles in a slow cluster and the correlation length are related by a robust power law, chi(4)(tau(alpha)) approximate to xi(d-p) (tau(alpha)), with an exponent d - p approximate to 1.6. This scaling is remarkably independent of epsilon, even though the strength of the dynamical heterogeneity at constant volume fraction depends strongly on epsilon.