Gagauzia: growing separatism in Moldova? OSW Commentary No. 129, 10.03.2014

On 2 February, the regional authorities in Gagauzia - an autonomous region of the Republic of Moldova - carried out two simultaneous referenda. In the first, local residents were asked to declare their support for the country’s integration either with the EU or with the Moscow-led Customs Union (CU); the second referendum sought their opinion on the draft law “On the deferred status of the Autonomous Region of Gagauzia”. Under the proposed legislation, if Moldova were to lose its sovereignty (for example, through the unification of Moldova and Romania, or even as some politicians have argued, through Moldova’s further integration with the EU), the autonomous region would automatically become the independent Republic of Gagauzia. As expected, the outcome of the vote has shown overwhelming support for both the CU and for the draft law. According to the figures released by Gagauzia’s Central Electoral Commission, 98.5% of the voters supported Moldova’s integration with the Customs Union, while 98% voted in favour of the ‘deferred independence’ bill. Support for closer integration with the EU was marginal, reaching just over 2%. Despite the one-sided outcome of the referendum, there is no reliable evidence to suggest that the ballot was rigged. It should also be noted that voter turnout was very high, reaching about 70%. Representatives of the Moldovan Central Electoral Commission, however, believe that the figure may have been artificially inflated by excluding many of the voters currently residing abroad from the count.

Azerbaijan-a growing problem for the West. OSW Commentary No. 146, 15.09.2014

Azerbaijan’s cooperation with the West, launched two decades ago, has helped it become a relatively strong and ambitious actor on the international stage. It has become a key country in the region from the Western (USA and the EU) and Turkish points of view, as well as an important partner in the energy sector. The strategic EU concept of the Southern Gas Corridor, also supported by the United States, is among the initiatives based on cooperation with Azerbaijan. Surprisingly, however, Azerbaijan’s increased ambition and importance have caused its policy to diverge ever farther from the expectations and plans formulated by the West. The changes in the balance of power in the South Caucasus, occurring in the context of the conflict in Ukraine, have forced Azerbaijan to revise its assessment of its position in the region. The main impetus for Azerbaijan’s actions is fear of Russia, as well as the weakness of the West which has become particularly apparent in the recent stages of the Ukrainian crisis. Azerbaijan’s actions so far have displayed its tendency to deepen its self-isolation in foreign affairs and consolidate its authoritarian system. This comes as a challenge to the West, whose ability to shape its relations with Azerbaijan has weakened considerably. This state of affairs poses the threat that in the current situation, the Southern Gas Corridor concept, which Azerbaijan amended in 2012 in its own favour, might become totally blocked.

Does land fragmentation affect farm performance? A case study from Brittany. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 40, April 2013

Agricultural land fragmentation is widespread and may affect farmers’ decisions and impact farm performance, either negatively or positively. The authors investigated this impact for the western region of Brittany, France, in 2007, regressing a set of performance indicators on a set of fragmentation descriptors. The performance indicators (production costs, yields, revenue, profitability, technical and scale efficiency) were calculated at the farm level using Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) data, while the fragmentation descriptors were calculated at the municipality level using data from the cartographic field pattern registry (RPG). The various fragmentation descriptors enabled the authors to account for not only the traditional number and average size of plots, but also their geographical scattering. They found that farms experienced higher costs of production, lower crop yields and lower profitability where land fragmentation (LF) was more pronounced. Total technical efficiency was not found to be significantly related to any of the municipality LF descriptors used, while scale efficiency was lower where the average distance to the nearest neighbouring plot was greater. Pure technical efficiency was found to be negatively related to the average number of plots in the municipality, with the unexpected result that it was also positively related to the average distance to the nearest neighbouring plot. By simulating the impact of hypothetical consolidation programmes on average pre-tax profits and wheat yield, the study also showed that the marginal benefits of reducing fragmentation may differ with respect to the improved LF dimension and the performance indicator considered. The analysis therefore shows that the measures of land fragmentation usually used in the literature do not reveal the full set of significant relationships with farm performance and that, in particular, measures accounting for distance should be considered more systematically.

Lessons for the EU from the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands Crisis. IES Policy Brief Issue 2013/01 • February 2013

Summary. From April until October 2012, China witnessed a series of public protests against the Japanese purchase of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Besides providing further evidence of growing Chinese nationalism, this unrest is interesting for other reasons relevant to EU policy. The Beijing leadership, which is traditionally perceived as the only source of foreign policy decisions in China, faces a changing domestic constellation. Domestic opinion increasingly constrains Chinese foreign policy, and it becomes obvious that foreign policy decision-making in Beijing is not insulated from larger social developments. Even if foreign policy decisions in China are still made without direct input from civil society, the influence of social forces on Chinese foreign policies has to be taken seriously. The EU thus might want to reconsider its approach to China: as long as EU concerns about human rights are met with a rather uncompromising attitude by the Chinese political elites, Brussels should double its efforts to reach Chinese civil society.

China on Central-Eastern Europe: ‘16+1’ as seen from Beijing. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 166/15.04.2015

From the Introduction. In 2012, China approached the countries of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) with a proposal concerning regional cooperation in the ‘16+1’ formula. According to Chinese analysts, the rationale behind this breakthrough decision was Beijing’s acknowledgment of the growing importance of the region’s states within the European Union as well as a partial elimination of the ideological differences which had hamstrung cooperation in previous years. It seems that the eurozone crisis may be perceived as the reason for the CEE states’ increased interest in developing their cooperation with China. These circumstances have opened a ‘window of opportunity’ which Beijing has decided to exploit to create a kind of bridgehead in the region which it could later use in its further economic expansion in Europe. Apart from opening the CEE region up for investments, the ‘16+1’ format was intended to facilitate the shaping of relations between China and the EU and to become a tool in building a positive image for China. Chinese experts agree that after three years of functioning, the ‘16+1’ regional cooperation format has helped Beijing achieve its goals only to a limited extent. The major obstacles have included: the immense diversification of the region, barriers related to EU law, insufficient expertise on the part of Chinese companies, the asymmetry of economic needs on both sides, and no willingness within the region itself to develop cooperation. Regardless of the limited effectiveness of activities carried out so far, China has continued its ‘16+1’ initiative. This continuation and the progressing institutionalisation of cooperation in the ‘16+1’ format have often seemed superficial. China has been using this multi-party formula to improve its long-term bilateral relations with selected states in the region and thereby to create a basis for Beijing’s political and economic presence in Central-Eastern Europe.

The growing intergenerational divide in Europe. Bruegel Policy Contribution Issue 2015/17, November 2015

During the economic and financial crisis, the divide between young and old in the European Union increased in terms of economic well-being and allocation of resources by governments. As youth unemployment and youth poverty rates increased, government spending shifted away from education, families and children towards pensioners. To address the sustainability of pension systems, some countries implemented pension reforms. We analysed changes to benefit ratios, meaning the ratio of the income of pensioners to the income of the active working population, and found that reforms often favoured current over future pensioners, increasing the intergenerational divide. We recommend reforms in three areas to address the intergenerational divide: improving European macroeconomic management, restoring fairness in government spending so the young are not disadvantaged, and pension reforms that share the burden fairly between generations.

How to get out of the crisis without reforms? The Belarusian authorities confront growing economic problems. OSW Commentary NUMBER 202/21.03.2016

2015 saw a drop in Belarus’s GDP for the first time in almost 20 years, which is primarily the result of a significant reduction in levels of production and export. As a consequence, there was also a serious depletion of the country’s foreign exchange reserves, as well as a progressive weakening of the Belarusian rouble. The macroeconomic figures from January and February 2016 show that these trends are not only continuing, but they are also becoming even more severe, which confirms that Belarus now finds itself in a prolonged economic crisis. On one hand, the reason for this state of affairs is the protracted economic recession in Russia, which is Belarus’s main economic partner, together with the drastic global decline in prices for fuel, which is a key Belarusian export. On the other hand, meanwhile, an equally important reason for the current crisis is the failure of the Belarusian economic model. President Aleksandr Lukashenko, out of fear that his authoritarian system of government will be dismantled and that public discontent will rise, has categorically rejected the proposals for even partial reforms put forward by some of his entourage, who are aware of the need for the immediate transformation of the country’s anachronistic and very costly economic model, based as it still is on quasi-Soviet management policies.

Protection from experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis by polyclonal IgG requires adjuvant-induced inflammation

BACKGROUND Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) proved to be an efficient anti-inflammatory treatment for a growing number of neuroinflammatory diseases and protects against the development of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), a widely used animal model for multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS The clinical efficacy of IVIG and IVIG-derived F(ab')2 fragments, generated using the streptococcal cysteine proteinase Ide-S, was evaluated in EAE induced by active immunization and by adoptive transfer of myelin-specific T cells. Frequency, phenotype, and functional characteristics of T cell subsets and myeloid cells were determined by flow cytometry. Antibody binding to microbial antigen and cytokine production by innate immune cells was assessed by ELISA. RESULTS We report that the protective effect of IVIG is lost in the adoptive transfer model of EAE and requires prophylactic administration during disease induction. IVIG-derived Fc fragments are not required for protection against EAE, since administration of F(ab')2 fragments fully recapitulated the clinical efficacy of IVIG. F(ab')2-treated mice showed a substantial decrease in splenic effector T cell expansion and cytokine production (GM-CSF, IFN-γ, IL-17A) 9 days after immunization. Inhibition of effector T cell responses was not associated with an increase in total numbers of Tregs but with decreased activation of innate myeloid cells such as neutrophils, monocytes, and dendritic cells. Therapeutically effective IVIG-derived F(ab')2 fragments inhibited adjuvant-induced innate immune cell activation as determined by IL-12/23 p40 production and recognized mycobacterial antigens contained in Freund's complete adjuvant which is required for induction of active EAE. CONCLUSIONS Our data indicate that F(ab')2-mediated neutralization of adjuvant contributes to the therapeutic efficacy of anti-inflammatory IgG. These findings might partly explain the discrepancy of IVIG efficacy in EAE and MS.

Chemical composition of plagioclase from DSDP Legs 45 and 46, Atlantic Ocean

Phyric basalts recovered from DSDP Legs 45 and 46 contain abundant plagioclase phenocrysts which occur as either discrete single grains (megacrysts) or aggregates (glomerocrysts) and which are too abundant and too anorthitic to have crystallized from a liquid with the observed bulk rock composition. Almost all the plagioclase crystals are complexly zoned. In most cases two abrupt and relatively large compositional changes associated with continuous internal morphologic boundaries divide the plagioclase crystals into three parts: core, mantle and rim. The cores exhibit two major types of morphology: tabular, with a euhedral to slightly rounded outline; or a skeletal inner core wrapped by a slightly rounded homogeneous outer core. The mantle region is characterized by a zoning pattern composed of one to several spikes/plateaus superimposed on a gently zoned base line, with one large plateau always at the outside of the mantle, and by, in most cases, a rounded internal morphology. The inner rim is typically oscillatory zoned. The width of the outer rim can be correlated with the position of the individual crystal in the basalt pillow. The presence of a skeletal inner core and the concentration of glass inclusions in low-An zones in the mantle region suggest that the liquid in which these parts of the crystals were growing was undercooled some amount. The resorption features at the outer margins of low-An zones indicate superheating of the liquid with respect to the crystal. It is proposed that the plagioclase cores formed during injection of primitive magma into a previously existing magma chamber, that the mantle formed during mixing of a partially mixed magma and the remaining magma already in the chamber, and that the inner rim formed when the mixed magma was in a sheeted dike system. The large plateau at the outside of the mantle may have formed during the injection of the next batch of primitive magma into the main chamber, which may trigger an eruption. This model is consistent with fluid dynamic calculations and geochemically based magma mixing models, and is suggested to be the major mechanism for generating the disequilibrium conditions in the magma.

Layer description, carbon and nitrogen content and stable isotope record of bulk sedimentary organic matter from Laguna Potrok Aike

An investigation of stable isotope (d13C TOC and d15N TN) and elemental parameters (TOC, TN contents and TOC/TN ratios) of bulk organic matter (<200 µm) from sediment cores recovered from the Patagonian lake Laguna Potrok Aike (Argentina) in the framework of the ICDP deep drilling project PASADO provided insights into past changes in lake primary productivity and environmental conditions in South Patagonia throughout the last Glacial-Interglacial transition. Stratigraphically constrained cluster analyses of all proxy parameters suggest four main phases. From ca 26,100 to 17,300 cal. years BP, lacustrine phytoplankton was presumably the predominant organic matter source in an aquatic environment with low primary productivity rates. At around 17,300 cal. years BP, abrupt and distinct shifts of isotopic and elemental values indicate that the lacustrine system underwent a rapid reorganization. Lake primary productivity (phytoplankton and aquatic macrophytes) shows higher levels albeit with large variations during most of the deglaciation until 13,000 cal. years BP. The main causes for this development can be seen in improved growing conditions for primary producers because of deglacial warming in combination with expedient availability of nutrients and likely calm wind conditions. After 13,000 cal. years BP, decreased d13C TOC values, TOC, TN contents and TOC/TN ratios indicate that the lake approached a new state with reduced primary productivity probably induced by unfavourable growing conditions for primary producers like strengthened winds and reduced nutrient availability. The steady increase in d15N TN values presumably suggests limitation of nitrate supply for growth of primary producers resulting from a nutrient shortage after the preceding phase with high productivity. Nitrate limitation and consequent decreased lacustrine primary productivity continued into the early Holocene (10,970-8400 cal. years BP) as reflected by isotopic and elemental values.

Popular gardening and fruit growing.

Description based on: Vol. 5, no. 1 (Oct. 1889); title from caption.

Cotton from raw material to finished product,

Reproduced from type-written copy.

Cotton, the universal fiber; a survey of the cotton industry from the raw material to the finished product, including descriptions of manufacturing and marketing methods and a dictionary of cotton goods,

Plates printed on both sides.

Corporate profits, 1936-1944 /

Reproduced from typewritten copy.

A catalogue of the indigenous flowering and filicoid plants growing within 20 miles of Bridgewater, (Oneida co.) New York.

From Annual Report of the Regents of the University of the state of New York, made to the Legislature Feb. 28, 1832.