A multi-scale analysis of transforming agricultural markets in the context of globalization: implications for natural resources, food prices and rural poverty in Latin America

Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.

El nuevo escenario global y un modelo de negocio para la industria naval militar del 2025

Los retos y oportunidades a los que se enfrentan las organizaciones y administraciones de las primeras décadas del siglo XXI se caracterizan por una serie de fuerzas perturbadoras como la globalización, el avance de las tecnologías emergentes y el desequilibrio económico, que están actuando como impulsores de la transformación del mercado. La acción conjunta de estos factores está obligando a todas las empresas industriales a tener que trabajar con mayores y más exigentes niveles de productividad planteándose continuamente como mejorar y lograr satisfacer los requerimientos de los clientes. De esta situación surge la necesidad de volver a plantearse de nuevo ¿quién es el cliente?, ¿qué valora el cliente? y ¿cómo se pueden generan beneficios sostenibles? La aplicación de esta reflexión a la industria naval militar marca los objetivos a los que esta tesis doctoral busca dar respuesta. El primer objetivo, de carácter general, consiste en la definición de un modelo de negocio sostenible para la industria naval militar del 2025 que se adapte a los requisitos del cliente y al nuevo escenario político, económico, social, tecnológico y ambiental que rodea esta industria. El segundo objetivo, consecuencia del modelo general, trata de desarrollar una metodología para ejecutar programas de apoyo al ciclo de vida del “buque militar”. La investigación se estructura en cuatro partes: en la primera se justifica, por un lado, la necesidad del cambio de modelo y por otro se identifican los factores estructurantes para la definición del modelo. La segunda parte revisa la literatura existente sobre uno de los aspectos básicos para el nuevo modelo, el concepto Producto-Servicio. La tercera parte se centra totalmente en la industria naval militar estudiando los aspectos concretos del sector y, en base al trabajo de campo realizado, se identifican los puntos que más valoran las Marinas de Guerra y como estas gestionan al buque militar durante todo su ciclo de vida. Por último se presentan los principios del modelo propuesto y se desarrollan los pilares básicos para la ejecución de proyectos de Apoyo al Ciclo de Vida (ACV). Como resultado de la investigación, el modelo propuesto para la industria naval militar se fundamenta en once principios: 1. El buque militar (producto de alto valor añadido) debe ser diseñado y construido en un astillero del país que desarrolla el programa de defensa. 2. El diseño tiene que estar orientado al valor para el cliente, es decir, se tiene que diseñar el buque militar para que cumpla su misión, eficaz y eficientemente, durante toda su vida operativa, asegurando la seguridad del buque y de las personas y protegiendo el medio ambiente de acuerdo con las regulaciones vigentes. 3. La empresa debe suministrar soluciones integrales de apoyo al ciclo de vida al producto. 4. Desarrollar y mantener las capacidades de integración de sistemas complejos para todo el ciclo de vida del buque militar. 5. Incorporar las tecnologías digitales al producto, a los procesos, a las personas y al propio modelo de negocio. 6. Desarrollar planes de actuación con el cliente domestico a largo plazo. Estos planes tienen que estar basados en tres premisas: (i) deben incluir el ciclo de vida completo, desde la fase de investigación y desarrollo hasta la retirada del buque del servicio; (ii) la demanda debe ser sofisticada, es decir las exigencias del cliente, tanto desde la óptica de producto como de eficiencia, “tiran” del contratista y (iii) permitir el mantenimiento del nivel tecnológico y de las capacidades industriales de la compañía a futuro y posicionarla para que pueda competir en el mercado de exportación. 7. Impulsar el sector militar de exportación mediante una mayor actividad comercial a nivel internacional. 8. Fomentar la multilocalización ya que representa una oportunidad de crecimiento y favorece la exportación posibilitando el suministro de soluciones integrales en el país destino. 9. Reforzar la diplomacia institucional como palanca para la exportación. 10. Potenciar el liderazgo tecnológico tanto en producto como en procesos con políticas activas de I + D+ i. 11. Reforzar la capacidad de financiación con soluciones innovadoras. El segundo objetivo de esta tesis se centra en el desarrollo de soluciones integrales de Apoyo al Ciclo de Vida (ACV). La metodología planteada trata de minimizar la brecha entre capacidades y necesidades a lo largo de la vida operativa del barco. Es decir, el objetivo principal de los programas de ACV es que la unidad conserve durante toda su vida operativa, en términos relativos a las tecnologías existentes, las capacidades equivalentes a las que tendrá cuando entre en servicio. Los ejes de actuación para conseguir que un programa de Apoyo al Ciclo de Vida cumpla su objetivo son: el diseño orientado al valor, la ingeniería de Apoyo al Ciclo de Vida, los proyectos de refresco de tecnología, el mantenimiento Inteligente y los contratos basados en prestaciones. ABSTRACT On the first decades of the 21st century, organizations and administrations face challenges and come across opportunities threatened by a number of disruptive forces such as globalization, the ever-changing emerging technologies and the economic imbalances acting as drivers of the market transformation. This combination of factors is forcing all industrial companies to have more and higher demanding productivity levels, while bearing always in mind how to improve and meet the customer’s requirements. In this situation, we need to question ourselves again: Who is the customer? What does the customer value? And how can we deliver sustainable economic benefits? Considering this matter in a military naval industry framework sets the goals that this thesis intends to achieve. The first general goal is the definition of a new sustainable business model for the 2025 naval industry, adapted to the customer requirements and the new political, economic, social, technological and environmental scenario. And the second goal that arises as a consequence of the general model develops a methodology to implement “warship” through life support programs. The research is divided in four parts: the first one justifies, on the one hand, the need to change the existing model and, on the other, identifies the model structural factors. On the second part, current literature regarding one of the key issues on the new model (the Product-Service concept) is reviewed. Based on field research, the third part focuses entirely on military shipbuilding, analyzing specific key aspects of this field and identifying which of them are valued the most by Navies and how they manage through life cycles of warships. Finally, the foundation of the proposed model is presented and also the basic grounds for implementing a Through Life Support (TLS) program are developed. As a result of this research, the proposed model for the naval industry is based on eleven (11) key principles: 1. The warship (a high added value product) must be designed and built in a shipyard at the country developing the defense program. 2. Design must be customer value oriented, i.e.warship must be designed to effectively fulfill its mission throughout its operational life, ensuring safety at the ship and for the people and protecting the environment in accordance with current regulations. 3. The industry has to provide integrated Through Life Support solutions. 4. Develop and maintain integrated complex systems capabilities for the entire warship life cycle. 5. Introduce the product, processes, people and business model itself to digital technologies. 6. Develop long-term action plans with the domestic customer. These plans must be based on three premises: (i) the complete life cycle must be included, starting from the research and development stage throughout the ship’s disposal; (ii) customer demand has to be sophisticated, i.e. customer requirements, both from the efficiency and product perspective, "attract" the contractor and (iii) technological level and manufacturing capabilities of the company in the future must be maintained and a competitive position on the export market has to be achieved. 7. Promote the military exporting sector through increased international business. 8. Develop contractor multi-location as it entails an opportunity for growth and promote export opportunities providing integrated solutions in the customer's country. 9. Strengthen institutional diplomacy as a lever for export. 10. Promote technological leadership in both product and processes with active R & D & I policies (Research & Development & Innovation) 11. Strengthen financing capacity through innovative solutions. The second goal of this thesis is focused on developing integrated Through Life Support (TLS) solutions. The proposed methodology tries to minimize the gap between needs and capabilities through the ship operational life. It means, the main TLS program objective is to maintain the ship’s performance and capabilities during operational life, in relative terms to current technologies, equivalent to those the ship had when it entered service. The main actions to fulfill the TLS program objectives are: value-oriented design, TLS engineering, technology updating projects, intelligent maintenance and performance based contracts.

La Ordenación del Territorio en las Ciudades Globales Europeas: El caso de Madrid

En la Comunidad de Madrid el modelo de ocupación del territorio en las dos últimas décadas ha obedecido a factores de oferta del mercado y no a las necesidades de la población, ello provoca un consumo de suelo y de recursos que conducen a una sobrexplotación insostenible. Las metrópolis globales están experimentando rápidas e intensas transformaciones, basadas en los paradigmas emergentes de la globalización, la gobernanza, la metropolizacion y la dispersión de las actividades en el territorio y a través de ellos se abordan los planes de Londres, París y las tentativas de Madrid. La globalización provoca la pérdida de soberanía de las administraciones publicas y la competitividad entre las ciudades globales en Europa, Londres, Paris y Madrid, son centros de poder, de concentración y crecimiento donde se produce la dualización del espacio y donde la desigualdad participa de la restructuración urbana, concentración de pobreza frente a espacios de la nueva clase emergente en donde dominan los sectores de servicios y las tecnologías de la información. Frente al desarrollo urbano neoliberal de regulación a través del mercado y basada en criterios de eficiencia de la Nueva Gestión Pública, se vislumbra la posibilidad de que la sociedad se administre a si misma por medio de acciones voluntarias y responsables que promuevan los intereses colectivos mediante el reconocimiento de su propia identidad, introduciendo el concepto de gobernanza. Frente, a la explotación del territorio por parte de la sociedad extractiva que genera corrupcion, se propone un modelo de cooperación público-privada basado en la confianza mutua, un marco regulador estable, la transparencia y la información a cuyo flujo más homogéneo contribuirán sin duda las TICs. En todo este proceso, las regiones metropolitanas en Europa se erigen como motores del crecimiento, donde los límites administrativos son superados, en un territorio cada vez más extendido y donde los gobiernos locales tienen que organizarse mediante un proceso de cooperación en la provisión de servicios que ayuden a evitar los desequilibrios territoriales. El fenómeno de la dispersión urbana en desarrollos de baja densidad, los centros comerciales periféricos, la expulsión hacia la periferia de las actividades de menor valor añadido y la concentración de funciones directivas en el centro, conducen a una fragmentación del territorio en islas dependientes del automóvil y a procesos de exclusión social por la huida de las rentas altas y la expulsión de las rentas bajas de los centros urbanos. Se crean fragmentos monofuncionales y discontinuos, apoyados en las autovías, lugares carentes de identidad y generadores de despilfarro de recursos y una falta de sostenibilidad ambiental, económica y social. El estudio de la cultura de la planificación en Europa ayuda a comprender los diferentes enfoques en la ordenación del territorio y el proceso de convergencia entre las diferentes regiones. Los documentos de la UE se basan en la necesidad de la competitividad para el crecimiento europeo y la cohesión social y en relación al territorio en los desarrollos policéntricos, la resolución del dualismo campo-ciudad, el acceso equilibrado a las infraestructuras, la gestión prudente de la naturaleza, el patrimonio y el fomento de la identidad. Se proponen dos niveles de estudio uno actual, los últimos planes de Londres y Paris y el otro la evolución de las tentativas de planes en la Región madrileña siempre en relación a los paradigmas emergentes señalados y su reflejo en los documentos. El Plan de Londres es estratégico, con una visión a largo plazo, donde se confiere un gran interés al proceso, al papel del alcalde como líder y su adaptación a las circunstancias cambiantes, sujeto a las incertidumbres de una ciudad global. El desarrollo del mismo se concibe a través de la colaboración y cooperación entre las administraciones y actores. La estructura del documento es flexible, establece orientaciones y guías indicativas, para la redacción de los planes locales, no siendo las mismas vinculantes y con escasa representación grafica. El Plan de París es más un plan físico, similar al de otros centros europeos, trabaja sobre los sectores y sobre los territorios, con información extensa, con características de “Plan Latino” por la fuerza de la expresión gráfica, pero al mismo tiempo contiene una visión estratégica. Es vinculante en sus determinaciones y normativas, se plantea fomentar, pero también prohibir. Ambos planes tratan la competitividad internacional de sus centros urbanos, la igualdad social, la inclusión de todos los grupos sociales y la vivienda como una cuestión de dignidad humana. Londres plantea la gobernanza como cooperación entre sector público-privado y la necesaria cooperación con las regiones limítrofes, en París las relaciones están más institucionalizadas resaltando la colaboración vertical entre administraciones. Ambos plantean la densificación de nodos servidos por transporte público, modos blandos y el uso los TODs y la preservación de la infraestructura verde jerarquizada, la potenciación de la red azul y la mejora del paisaje de las periferias. En las “tentativas” de planes territoriales de Madrid se constata que estuvieron sujetas a los ciclos económicos. El primer Documento las DOT del año 1984, no planteaba crecimiento, ni económico ni demográfico, a medio plazo y por ello no proponía una modificación del modelo radio concéntrico. Se trataba de un Plan rígido volcado en la recuperación del medio rural, de la ciudad, el dimensionamiento de los crecimientos en función de las dotaciones e infraestructuras existentes. Aboga por la intervención de la administración pública y la promoción del pequeño comercio. Destaca el desequilibrio social en función de la renta, la marginación de determinados grupos sociales, el desequilibrio residencia/empleo y la excesiva densidad. Incide en la necesidad de viviendas para los más desfavorecidos mediante el alquiler, la promoción suelo público y la promoción del ferrocarril para dar accesibilidad al espacio central. Aboga por el equipamiento de proximidad y de pequeño tamaño, el tratamiento paisajístico de los límites urbanos de los núcleos y el control de las actividades ilegales señalando orientaciones para el planeamiento urbano. Las Estrategias (1989) contienen una visión: la modificación del modelo territorial, mediante la intervención pública a través de proyectos. Plantea la reestructuración económica del territorio, la reconversión del aparato productivo, la deslocalización de actividades de escaso valor añadido y una mayor ubicuidad de la actividad económica. Incide en la difusión de la centralidad hacia el territorio del sur, equilibrándolo con el norte, tratando de recomponer empleo y residencia, integrando al desarrollo económico las periferias entre sí y con el centro. Las actuaciones de transporte consolidarían las actuaciones, modificando el modelo radio concéntrico facilitando la movilidad mediante la red de cercanías y la intermodalidad. El plan se basaba en el liderazgo del Consejero, no integrando sectores como el medio ambiente, ni estableciendo un documento de seguimiento de las actuaciones que evaluara los efectos de las políticas y su aportación al equilibrio territorial, a través de los proyectos realizados. El Documento Preparatorio de las Bases (1995), es más de un compendio o plan de planes, recoge análisis y propuestas de los documentos anteriores y de planes sectoriales de otros departamentos. Presenta una doble estructura: un plan físico integrador clásico, que abarca los sectores y territorios, y recoge las Estrategias previas añadiendo puntos fuertes, como el malestar urbano y la rehabilitación el centro. Plantea la consecución del equilibrio ambiental mediante el crecimiento de las ciudades existentes, la vertebración territorial basada en la movilidad y en la potenciación de nuevas centralidades, la mejora de la habitabilidad y rehabilitación integral del Centro Urbano de Madrid, y la modernización del tejido productivo existente. No existe una idea-fuerza que aglutine todo el documento, parte del reconocimiento de un modelo existente concentrado y congestivo, un centro urbano dual y dos periferias al este y sur con un declive urbano y obsolescencia productiva y al oeste y norte con una dispersión que amenaza al equilibrio medioambiental. Señala como aspectos relevantes, la creciente polarización y segregación social, la deslocalización industrial, la aparición de las actividades de servicios a las empresas instaladas en las áreas metropolitanas, y la dispersión de las actividades económicas en el territorio por la banalización del uso del automóvil. Se plantea el reto de hacer ciudad de la extensión suburbana y su conexión con el sistema metropolitano, mediante una red de ciudades integrada y complementaria, en búsqueda de un mayor equilibrio y solidaridad territorial. Las Bases del PRET (1997) tenían como propósito iniciar el proceso de concertación en que debe basarse la elaboración del Plan. Parte de la ciudad mediterránea compacta, y diversa, y de la necesidad de que las actividades económicas, los servicios y la residencia estén en proximidad, resolviéndolo mediante una potente red de transporte público que permitiese una accesibilidad integrada al territorio. El flujo de residencia hacia la periferia, con un modelo ajeno de vivienda unifamiliar y la concentración del empleo en el centro producen desequilibrio territorial. Madrid manifiesta siempre apostó por la densificación del espacio central urbanizado, produciendo su congestión, frente al desarrollo de nuevos suelos que permitieran su expansión territorial. Precisa que es necesario preservar los valores de centralidad de Madrid, como generador de riqueza, canalizando toda aquella demanda de centralidad, hacia espacios más periféricos. El problema de la vivienda no lo ve solo como social, sino como económico, debido a la pérdida de empleos que supone su paralización. Observa ya los crecimientos residenciales en el borde de la region por el menor valor del suelo. Plantea como la política de oferta ha dado lugar a un modelo de crecimiento fragmentado, desequilibrado, desestructurado, con fuertes déficits dotacionales y de equipamiento, que inciden en la segregación espacial de las rentas, agravando el proceso de falta de identidad morfológica y de desarraigo de los valores urbanos. El plan señalaba que la presión sobre el territorio creaba su densificación por las limitaciones de espacio, Incidía en limitar el peso de la intervención pública, no planteando propuestas de cooperación público-privado. La mayor incoherencia estriba en que los objetivos eran innovadores y coinciden en su mayoría con las propuestas estudiadas de Londres o Paris, pero se intentan implementar a través de un cambio hacia un modelo reticulado homogéneo, expansivo sobre el territorio, que supone un consumo de suelo y de infraestructuras para solucionar un problema inexistente, la gestión de la densidad. Durante las dos últimas décadas en ausencia de un plan regional, la postura neoliberal fue la de un exclusivo control de legalidad del planeamiento, los municipios entraron en un proceso de competencia para aprovechar las iniciales ventajas económicas de los crecimientos detectados, que proporcionaban una base económica “sólida” a unos municipios con escasos recursos en sus presupuestos municipales. La legislación se modifica a requerimiento de grupos interesados, no existiendo un marco estable. Se pierde la figura del plan no solo a nivel regional, si no en los sectores y el planeamiento municipal donde los municipios tiende a basarse en modificaciones puntuales con la subsiguiente pérdida del modelo urbanístico. La protección ambiental se estructura mediante un extenso nivel de figuras, con diversidad de competencias que impide su efectiva protección y control. Este proceso produce un despilfarro en la ocupación del suelo, apoyada en las infraestructuras viarias, y un crecimiento disperso y de baja densidad, cada vez más periférico, produciéndose una segmentación social por dualización del espacio en función de niveles de renta. Al amparo del boom inmobiliario, se produce una falta de política social de vivienda pública, más basada en la dinamización del mercado con producción de viviendas para rentas medias que en políticas de alquiler para determinados grupos concentrándose estas en los barrios desfavorecidos y en la periferia sur. Se produce un incremento de la vivienda unifamiliar, muchas veces amparada en políticas públicas, la misma se localiza en el oeste principalmente, en espacios de valor como el entorno del Guadarrama o con viviendas más baratas por la popularización de la tipología en la frontera de la Región. El territorio se especializa a modo de islas monofuncionales, las actividades financieras y de servicios avanzados a las empresas se localizan en el norte y oeste próximo, se pierde actividad industrial que se dispersa más al sur, muchas veces fuera de la región. Se incrementan los grandes centros comerciales colgados de las autovías y sin población en su entorno. Todo este proceso ha provocado una pérdida de utilización del transporte público y un aumento significativo del uso del vehículo privado. En la dos últimas décadas se ha producido en la región de Madrid desequilibrio territorial y segmentación social, falta de implicación de la sociedad en el territorio, dispersión del crecimiento y un incremento de los costes ambientales, sociales y económicos, situación, que solo, a través del uso racional del territorio se puede reconducir, apoyado en una planificación integrada sensible y participativa. ABSTRACT In Madrid the model of land occupation in the past two decades has been driven by market supply factors rather than the needs of the population. This results in a consumption of land and resources that leads to unsustainable overexploitation. Addressing this issue must be done through sensitive and participatory integrated planning. Global cities are experiencing rapid and intense change based on the emerging paradigms of globalization, governance, metropolization and the dispersion of activities in the territory. Through this context, a closer look will be taken at the London and Paris plans as well as the tentative plans of Madrid. Globalization causes the loss of state sovereignty and the competitiveness among global cities in Europe; London, Paris and Madrid. These are centres of power, concentration and growth where the duality of space is produced, and where inequality plays a part in urban restructuration. There are concentrated areas of poverty versus areas with a new emerging class where the services sector and information technologies are dominant. The introduction of ICTs contributes to a more homogeneous flow of information leading, us to the concept of governance. Against neoliberal urban development based on free market regulations and efficiency criteria as established by the “New Public Management”, emerge new ways where society administers itself through voluntary and responsible actions to promote collective interests by recognizing their own identity. A new model of public-private partnerships surfaces that is based on mutual trust, transparency, information and a stable regulatory framework in light of territorial exploitation by the “extractive society” that generates corruption. Throughout this process, European metropolitan regions become motors of growth where administrative boundaries are overcome in an ever expanding territory where government is organized through cooperative processes to provide services that protect against regional imbalances. Urban sprawl or low-density development as seen in peripheral shopping centres, the off-shoring of low added-value activities to the periphery, and the concentration of business and top management functions in the centre, leads to a fragmentation of the territory in automobile dependent islands and a process of social exclusion brought on by the disappearance of high incomes. Another effect is the elimination of low income populations from urban centres. In consequence, discontinuous expansions and mono-functional places that lack identity materialize supported by a highway network and high resource consumption. Studying the culture of urban planning in Europe provides better insight into different approaches to spatial planning and the process of convergence between different regions. EU documents are based on the need of competitiveness for European growth and social cohesion. In relation to polycentric development territory they are based on a necessity to solve the dualism between field and city, balanced access to infrastructures, prudent management of nature and solidifying heritage and identity Two levels of study unfold, the first being the current plans of London and Île-de-France and the second being the evolution of tentative plans for the Madrid region as related to emerging paradigms and how this is reflected in documents. The London Plan is strategic with a long-term vision that focuses on operation, the role of the mayor as a pivotal leader, and the adaptability to changing circumstances brought on by the uncertainties of a global city. Its development is conceived through collaboration and cooperation between governments and stakeholders. The document structure is flexible, providing guidance and indicative guidelines on how to draft local plans so they are not binding, and it contains scarce graphic representation. The Plan of Paris takes on a more physical form and is similar to plans of other European centres. It emphasizes sectors and territories, using extensive information, and is more characteristic of a “Latin Plan” as seen in its detailed graphic expression. However, it also contains a strategic vision. Binding in its determinations and policy, it proposes advancement but also prohibition. Both plans address the international competitiveness of urban centres, social equality, inclusion of all social groups and housing as issues of human dignity. London raises governance and cooperation between public and private sector and the need for cooperation with neighbouring regions. In Paris, the relations are more institutionalized highlighting vertical collaboration between administrations. Both propose nodes of densification served by public transportation, soft modes and the use of TOD, the preservation of a hierarchical green infrastructure, and enhancing the landscape in urban peripheries. The tentative territorial plans for the Madrid region provide evidence that they were subject to economic cycles. The first document of master guidelines (1984) does not address either economic or demographic growth in the mid term and therefore does not propose the modification of the radio-concentric model. It is a rigid plan focused on rural and urban recovery and the dimensioning of growth that depends on endowments and infrastructures. It advocates government intervention and promotes small business. The plan emphasizes social imbalance in terms of income, marginalization of certain social groups, the imbalance of residence/employment and excessive density. It stresses the need for social rent housing for the underprivileged, promotes public land, and the supports rail accessibility to the central area. It backs facilities of proximity and small size, enhancing the landscaping of city borders, controlling illegal activities and draws out guidelines for urban planning. The strategies (1989) contain a vision: Changing the territorial model through public intervention by means of projects. They bring to light economic restructuring of territory, the reconversion of the productive apparatus, relocation of low value-added activities, and greater ubiquity of economic activity. They also propose the diffusion of centrality towards southern territories, balancing it with the north in an attempt to reset employment and residence that integrates peripheral economic development both in the periphery and the centre. Transport would consolidate the project, changing the radius-concentric model and facilitating mobility through a commuter and inter-modality network. The plan derives itself from the leadership of the minister and does not integrate sectors such as environment. It also does not incorporate the existence of a written document that monitors performance to evaluate the effects of policies and their contribution to the territorial balance. The Preparatory Document of the Bases, (1995) is more a compendium, or plan of plans, that compiles analysis and proposals from previous documents and sectorial plans from other departments. It has a dual structure: An integrating physical plan covering the sectors and territories that includes the previous strategies while adding some strengths. One such point is the urban discomfort and the rehabilitation of the centre. It also poses the achievement of environmental balance through the growth of existing cities, the territorial linking based on mobility, strengthening new centres, improving the liveability and comprehensive rehabilitation of downtown Madrid, and the modernization of the existing production network. There is no one powerful idea that binds this document. This is due to the recognition of an existing concentrate and congestive model, a dual urban centre, two eastern and southern suburbs suffering from urban decay, and an obsolescent productive north and west whose dispersion threatens the environmental balance. Relevant aspects the document highlights are increasing polarization and social segregation, industrial relocation, the emergence of service activities to centralized companies in metropolitan areas and the dispersion of economic activities in the territory by the trivialization of car use. It proposes making the city from the suburban sprawl and its connection to the metropolitan system through a network of integrated and complementary cities in search of a better balance and territorial solidarity. The Bases of PRET (1997) aims to start the consultation process that must underpin the development of the plan. It stems from a compact and diverse Mediterranean city along with the need for economic activities, services and residences that are close. To resolve the issue, it presents a powerful network of public transport that allows integrated accessibility to the territory. The flow of residence to the periphery based on a foreign model of detached housing and an employment concentration in the centre produces territorial imbalance. Madrid always opted for the densification of the central space, producing its congestion, against the development of new land that would allow its territorial expansion. The document states that the necessity to preserve the values of the housing problem is not only viewed as social, but also economic due to the loss of jobs resulting from their paralysis. It notes the residential growth in the regional border due to the low price of land and argues that the policy of supply has led to a fragmented model of growth that is unbalanced, unstructured, with strong infrastructure and facility deficits that affect the spatial segregation of income and aggravate the lack of morphological identity, uprooting urban values. The pressure on the territory caused its densification due to space limitation; the proposed grid model causes land consumption and infrastructure to solve a non-problem, density. Focusing on limiting the weight of public intervention, it does not raise proposals for public-private cooperation. The biggest discrepancy is that the targets were innovative and mostly align with the proposals in London and Paris. However, it proposes to be implemented through a shift towards a uniform gridded model that is expansive over territory. During the last two decades, due to the absence of a regional plan, a neoliberal stance held exclusive control of the legality of urban planning. The municipalities entered a competition process to take advantage of initial economic benefits of such growth. This provided a “solid” economic base for some municipalities with limited resources in their municipal budgets. The law was amended without a legal stable framework at the request of stakeholders. The character of the plan is lost not only regionally, but also in the sectors and municipal planning. This tends to be based on specific changes with the loss of an urban model. Environmental protection is organized through an extensive number of protection figures with diverse competencies that prevent its effective protection. This process squanders the use of the land, backed by increasing road infrastructure, dispersed occupations with low-density growth causing a social segmentation due to space duality based on income levels. During the housing boom, there is a reduction in social public housing policy mostly due to a boost in the market of housing production for average incomes than in rental policies for needy social groups that focus on disadvantaged neighbourhoods and southern suburbs. As a result, there is an increase in single-family housing, often protected by public policy. This is located primarily in the west in areas of high environmental value such as Guadarrama. There is also cheaper housing due to the popularization of typology in the border region. There, territory works as a mono-functional islands. Financial activities and advanced services for companies are located to the north and west where industrial activity is lost as it migrates south, often outside the region. The number of large shopping centres hanging off the highway infrastructure with little to no surrounding population increases. This process leads to the loss of dependency on public transport and a significant increase in the use of private vehicles. The absence of regional planning has produced more imbalance, more social segmentation, more dispersed growth and a lot of environmental, social and economic costs that can only be redirected through rational territorial.

DA TERCEIRA REVOLUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL À PRODUÇÃO ENXUTA SEU IMPACTO NA INDÚSTRIA DE AUTOPEÇAS CASO: MAHLE METAL LEVE S/A

A presente dissertação teve como objetivo verificar as razões pelas quais a empresa Metal Leve cedeu o controle acionário a uma empresa concorrente de porte internacional e comparar a situação existente à época da sua desnacionalização e o estágio em que se encontra a nova controladora Mahle Metal Leve S. A. em termos de produção e gestão, após a reorganização produtiva. Esse processo de internacionalização produtiva acarretou modificações na empresa ensejando uma reestruturação da produção e da gestão e um novo círculo vicioso, constituindo as bases de um novo crescimento econômico, com um projeto estratégico de longo prazo, associado ao seu poder econômico, a sua capacidade gerencial e a sua tradição. O estudo está fundamentado em um conjunto de informações sobre os dois momentos, focalizando os resultados financeiros, aspectos gerenciais, liderança, capacidade competitiva e a evolução ao longo desses dois momentos comparados. Concluindo que não apenas o fenômeno da globalização da economia internacional tornou inevitável a cessão do controle acionário. Porém, também faltou visão estratégica para perceber as mudanças que inevitavelmente ocorriam a sua volta e que a nova controladora, a Mahler Metal Leve, trouxe uma competência gerencial que resultou em ganhos de produtividade e melhorou sua competitividade

DA TERCEIRA REVOLUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL À PRODUÇÃO ENXUTA SEU IMPACTO NA INDÚSTRIA DE AUTOPEÇAS CASO: MAHLE METAL LEVE S/A

A presente dissertação teve como objetivo verificar as razões pelas quais a empresa Metal Leve cedeu o controle acionário a uma empresa concorrente de porte internacional e comparar a situação existente à época da sua desnacionalização e o estágio em que se encontra a nova controladora Mahle Metal Leve S. A. em termos de produção e gestão, após a reorganização produtiva. Esse processo de internacionalização produtiva acarretou modificações na empresa ensejando uma reestruturação da produção e da gestão e um novo círculo vicioso, constituindo as bases de um novo crescimento econômico, com um projeto estratégico de longo prazo, associado ao seu poder econômico, a sua capacidade gerencial e a sua tradição. O estudo está fundamentado em um conjunto de informações sobre os dois momentos, focalizando os resultados financeiros, aspectos gerenciais, liderança, capacidade competitiva e a evolução ao longo desses dois momentos comparados. Concluindo que não apenas o fenômeno da globalização da economia internacional tornou inevitável a cessão do controle acionário. Porém, também faltou visão estratégica para perceber as mudanças que inevitavelmente ocorriam a sua volta e que a nova controladora, a Mahler Metal Leve, trouxe uma competência gerencial que resultou em ganhos de produtividade e melhorou sua competitividade

Economic change, crime, and mortality crisis in Russia: regional analysis

Objective: To identify which aspects of socioeconomic change were associated with the steep decline in life expectancy in Russia between 1990 and 1994.

Controle de cargas conteinerizadas utilizando elementos da cadeia logística segura e do programa brasileiro de Operador Econômico Autorizado (OEA).

O presente trabalho propõe um processo para auxiliar a tarefa de implantação de controles de Cadeia Logística Segura para a importação e exportação de cargas conteinerizadas, transportadas pelo modal rodoviário. Está em consonância com a legislação brasileira atual, no que se refere à Receita Federal do Brasil e demais Órgãos Anuentes. Além disso, inclui, também, as novas diretrizes do Programa Brasileiro de Operador Econômico Autorizado que teve seu início na primeira quinzena de Dezembro de 2014, bem como os aspectos principais do quadro SAFE, da Organização Mundial das Aduanas (OMA) e do programa americano Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (C-TPAT). O processo proposto no trabalho contempla a instrumentação dos controles e seus principais pontos de integração de dados, estágio em que grande parte dos operadores econômicos atuais se encontra. A proposta justifica-se pela complexidade dos processos de cadeias logísticas, sua importância para o comércio exterior e, portanto, para a economia do país, que exigem um aperfeiçoamento constante para atender à competitividade crescente dos mercados, controlar e gerenciar riscos e incertezas dos tempos da globalização. A metodologia do trabalho de pesquisa constou de estudos sobre o significado de cadeia logística segura, legislações e normatizações existentes, principais tecnologias utilizadas no Brasil e no mundo e suas estratégias de integração de sistemas, com enfoque em alguns projetos de gestão já existentes no país. O porto de Santos foi tomado como campo principal de pesquisa. O trabalho evidenciou a importância da presença de três características fundamentais em um processo de cadeia logística segura: ser instrumentado, integrado e inteligente. Considera-se que, a partir do processo proposto, será possível aumentar o grau de inteligência de uma cadeia logística, de forma a gerenciar e mitigar os potenciais riscos de forma mais racional.

The Pursuit of Balanced Income An Economic Perspective on Wealth

The purpose of this thesis is to determine if households with moderate incomes have the opportunity to acquire pecuniary wealth. In an environment of increasing globalization, labor-eliminating technology, and an overburdened entitlement system, the position of wealth is necessary for households with a penchant for early retirement and particularly for those that will inevitably succumb to involuntary retirement. In these writings, qualitative and quantitative descriptions of wealth are offered; two microeconomic metrics are introduced to identify baseline wealth and to gauge proximity to this value; and strategies are devised to close the gap between these metrics. The construct of the economic intertemporal household budget was used as the basis for this research whereby conventional measures of wealth, i.e. net worth and liquid net worth, have been coupled with historical and empirical household data to define and extrapolate wealth and wealth proximity metrics. The major finding is wealth is a dynamic variable contingent upon consumption level rather than income or saving levels. And because households exercise a greater degree of autonomy over consumption, moderate earners are afforded the same opportunities as high earners. The position of wealth is necessary because it sustains consumption in the event of an unwelcomed retirement and it can assuage reliance on entitlement programs. For the majority of households, wealth is a matter of choice.

Social Inequity and Globalization: Understanding Violent and Nonviolent Responses

Globalization generates economic growth that is dominated by the free market dynamics of liberalization, deregulation, and privatization. The benefits of this growth are not distributed equally. The resulting inequities cause poverty, marginalization, exclusion, and instability. People respond to these inequities in both positive/nonviolent and negative/violent ways. This capstone project investigates the reasons for divergent responses to globalization by contrasting the underlying social factors in two case studies: peace communities in Colombia and piracy in Somalia. By measuring the level of vulnerability, considering security in a variety of domains, and examining stress on socio-cultural norms, this project develops a social factors framework for understanding the reasons for negative/violent versus positive/nonviolent responses to globalization.

Discretion and Accountability: The ESMA Judgment and the Meroni Doctrine. Bruges European Economic Research (BEER) Papers 30/2014

This paper assesses the effectiveness of the Meroni doctrine in the light of the recent judgment in the ESMA case. The first part explains in detail the problem of delegation of powers in the EU from the perspective of the principal-agent theory and complements it with the analysis of the trade-off between different levels of independence and accountability of agencies. A simple economic model is developed to illustrated the relationship between the independence and accountability of an agency. It shows that it is the accountability mechanism that induces the agent to act, rather than the extent of his independence. The paper also explains the inter-temporal interactions between the principal and the agent on the basis of the incentives in place for the different players. The second part is devoted to analysis of the functioning of ESMA in the context of its delegated powers. After the presentation of main aspects of the regulatory framework establishing ESMA, the paper continuous with an analysis and interpretation of the discretionary powers of ESMA. The rather rigid position of the Court of Justice in relation to the Meroni doctrine seems to be unsuitable to delegation of complex regulatory tasks. This is particularly evident in the case of financial markets. Finally, the judgment does not examine in any detail whether and how the principals - i.e. the EU and Member States - are best able to evaluate the quality of ESMA decisions and regulations and whether there are different but more effective accountability mechanisms.

Chasing globalisation: Germany's economic relations with the BRIC countries. OSW Report, November 2013

The Eurozone crisis has forced German exporters to speed up their expansion onto the emerging markets, in particular Brazil, Russia, India and China. The development observed in those countries has become an important substitute for the consequences of the economic slowdown in Europe.To illustrate the scale of cooperation between Germany and the BRIC countries, it is enough to quote figures concerning Germany’s trade. Between 2000-2011 the share of trade with the BRIC states in the entire German trade exchange rose from 5.5% to 13.3%. In the same period opposite tendencies were observed in the figures relating to trade with the USA, whose share in German trade fell from 9.6% to 6.2%. The report discusses the major tendencies present in Germany’s cooperation with the BRIC countries, and examines how the German state supports German companies in their business activities on these markets. The main method used to investigate these processes is the economic analysis of trade and capital flows between Germany and the BRIC countries, supplemented by conclusions drawn from discussions with German experts. The main issue discussed in the text is the role of the state in stimulating the expansion of German companies onto the BRIC markets. In the context of these activities, political relations and the proper use of export and investment guarantees and development aid are of major importance.

Europe's economic challenges and the importance of ideas and innovation. CHALLENGE EUROPE Issue 22 - Challenges and new beginnings: Priorities for the EU's new leadership, September 2014.

How will we Europeans earn our living in 20 or 30 years' time? And how can it be done, while remaining true to our values of fairness, freedom and solidarity? These fundamental questions predate the financial crisis and will still be with us once we have fully overcome it. Of all the groups in society, business leaders are probably most keenly aware of the challenge posed by globalisation. They have their finger on the pulse of global economic activity and keep alerting me that Europe is losing out. The trade unions, generally more focused on the economy's demand side, regularly call for more (public) investment. Their leadership remains highly committed to Europe but they can sense a rise of Euro-scepticism among their members. We must, and can bring these two narratives together. Yes, global change is relentless and our societies must adapt, but we can also preserve what makes Europe such a special place: a unique combination of relative prosperity, solidarity, individual freedoms, and security. This challenge was always on my mind.

Designing a Genuine EMU: Which "Unions" for EU and Eurozone? Bruges European Economic Policy (BEEP) Briefing 34/2014

The initial ‘framing’ (in the summer of 2012) of the ‘genuine EMU’ for the wider public suggested to design an entire series of ‘unions’. So many ‘unions’ are neither necessary nor desirable – only some are and their design matters. The paper critically discusses first the negative fall-out of the crisis for EMU, and subsequently assesses the fiscal and the banking unions as accomplished so far, without going into highly specific technical details. The assessment is moderately positive, although there is ample scope for further improvement and a risk for short-term turbulence once the ECB has finished its tests and reviews. What about the parade of other ’unions’ such as economic union, social union and political union? The macro-economic imbalances procedure (MIP) and possibly the ESRB have overcome the pre-crisis disregard of macro competitiveness. The three components of ‘economic union’ (single market, economic policy coordination and budgetary disciplines) have all been strengthened. The last two ‘unions’, on the other hand, would imply a fundamental change in the conferral of powers to the EU/ Eurozone, with drastic and possibly very serious long-run implications, including a break-up of the Union, if such proposals would be pushed through. The cure is worse than the disease. Whereas social union is perhaps easier to dismiss as a ‘misfit’ in the EU, the recent popularity of suggesting a ‘political union’ is seen as worrisome. Probably, nobody knows what a ‘political union’ is, or, at best, it is a highly elastic notion: it might be thought necessary for reasons of domestic economic reforms in EU countries, for a larger common budget, for some EU tax power, for (greater) risk pooling, for ‘symmetric’ macro-economic adjustment and for some ultimate control of the ECB in times of crisis. Taking each one of these arguments separately, a range of more typical EU solutions might be found without suggesting a ‘political union’. Just as ‘fiscal capacity’ was long an all-or-nothing taboo for shifting bank resolution to the EU level, now solved with a modest common Fund and carefully confined but centralised powers, the author suggests that other carefully targeted responses can be designed for the various aspects where seen as indispensable, including the political say of a lender-of-last-resort function of the ECB. Hence, neither a social nor a political union worthy of the name ought to be pursued. Yet, political legitimacy matters, both with national parliaments and the grassroots. National parliaments will have to play a larger role.

How Social is European Integration? Bruges European Economic Policy (BEEP) Briefing 18/2007

The social dimension of the internal market or of the EU more generally has recently been under quite fundamental attack. Calls for 'Europe' to be 'more social' have been heard repeatedly. Witness the polarized debates about the services directive, the anxieties concerning several ECJ cases about what limitations of the free movement of workers (posted or not) are justified or the assertion of a 'neo-liberal agenda' in Brussels disregarding or eroding the social dimension. This BEEP Briefing paper takes an analytical approach to these issues and to the possible 'framing' involved. Such an analysis reveals a very different picture than the negative framing in such debates has it: there is nothing particular 'a-social' about the internal market or the EU at large. This overall conclusion is reached following five steps. First, several 'preliminaries' of the social dimension have to be kept in mind (including the two-tier regulatory & expenditure structure of what is too loosely called 'social Europe' ) and this is only too rarely done or at best in partial, hence misleading, ways. Second, the social acquis at EU and Member States' levels is spelled out, broken down into four aspects (social spending; labour market regulation; industrial relations; free movements & establishment). Assessing the EU acquis in the light of the two levels of powers shows clearly that it is the combination of the two levels which matters. Member States and e.g. labour unions do not want the EU level to become deeply involved ( with some exceptions) and the actual impact of free movement and establishment is throttled by far-reaching host-country control and the requirement of a 'high level of social protection' in the treaty. Third, six anxieties about the social dimension of the internal market are discussed and few arguments are found which are attributable to the EU or its weakening social dimension. Fourth, another six anxieties are discussed emerging from the socio-economic context of the social dimension of the EU at large. The analysis demonstrates that, even if these anxieties ought to be taken serious, the EU is hardly or not the culprit. Fifth, all this is complemented by a number of other facts or arguments strengthening the case that the EU social dimension is fine.