Fighting merchants

Selected essays from a conference held in November 2013 to celebrate the contribution to scholarship of the medieval historian Professor James L. Bolton.

The Phantom Carriage: a revaluation

This is a two-part audiovisual essay on Victor Sjöström’s extraordinary film The Phantom Carriage (Körkarlen), which was released on New Year’s Day 1921. Part 1 explores a sequence in detail, revealing a mastery of three-dimensional film space which is remarkable for its period; the essay then look at the ways in which this handling of space is integral to the film’s rich articulation of character and action. Part 2 considers aspects of the film’s mise-en-scène and shows how the features of the sequence explored in Part 1 take on their full resonance within patterns and motifs that develop across the film. Published by Movie: a journal of film criticism, the essay complements our chapter on the film in the volume Silent Features, edited by Steve Neale (Exeter University Press, 2016).

Opening movements in Ophuls: Caught (and Madame de …)

This audiovisual essay was created at the wonderful NEH-funded workshop in videographic criticism at Middlebury College, ‘Scholarship in Sound and Image’. The essay provides an analysis of the orchestration of long takes and camera movement in the opening of Caught (Ophuls, 1949), and develops a comparison with the opening of Madame de… (Ophuls, 1953 – U.S. release title The Earrings of Madame de…), not least through a series of juxtapositions, which can be directly presented and compared in an audiovisual essay. The openings share a concern with the subjectivity of the female protagonists and our relationship toward it, evoking the women’s experience while balancing this with other kinds of perspective. As has been noted in the critical literature on Ophuls, and on melodramas of passion more generally, such views enable us to perceive the women concerned to be caught in material and ideological frameworks of which they are at best partially aware. Among the interests of this particular comparison, however, is the extent to which the dynamic around female subjectivity is played in relation to luxury goods, imagined, owned or admired. Tensions between on- and off-screen spaces and sounds are critical to the interest of the long takes under discussion. Camera movements subtly inflect the extent to which we are aligned (or otherwise) with the characters and the ways in which their material circumstances are revealed to us.

Testicular traits as selection criteria for young Nellore bulls

The objective of this study was to evaluate the possible use of biometric testicular traits as selection criteria for young Nellore bulls using Bayesian inference to estimate heritability coefficients and genetic correlations. Multitrait analysis was performed including 17,211 records of scrotal circumference obtained during andrological assessment (SCAND) and 15,313 records of testicular volume and shape. In addition, 50,809 records of scrotal circumference at 18 mo (SC18), used as an anchor trait, were analyzed. The (co) variance components and breeding values were estimated by Gibbs sampling using the Gibbs2F90 program under an animal model that included contemporary groups as fixed effects, age of the animal as a linear covariate, and direct additive genetic effects as random effects. Heritabilities of 0.42, 0.43, 0.31, 0.20, 0.04, 0.16, 0.15, and 0.10 were obtained for SC18, SCAND, testicular volume, testicular shape, minor defects, major defects, total defects, and satisfactory andrological evaluation, respectively. The genetic correlations between SC18 and the other traits were 0.84 (SCAND), 0.75 (testicular shape), 0.44 (testicular volume), -0.23 (minor defects), -0.16 (major defects), -0.24 (total defects), and 0.56 (satisfactory andrological evaluation). Genetic correlations of 0.94 and 0.52 were obtained between SCAND and testicular volume and shape, respectively, and of 0.52 between testicular volume and testicular shape. In addition to favorable genetic parameter estimates, SC18 was found to be the most advantageous testicular trait due to its easy measurement before andrological assessment of the animals, even though the utilization of biometric testicular traits as selection criteria was also found to be possible. In conclusion, SC18 and biometric testicular traits can be adopted as a selection criterion to improve the fertility of young Nellore bulls.

Using non-homogeneous Poisson models with multiple change-points to estimate the number of ozone exceedances in Mexico City

In this paper, we consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the probability that an air quality standard is exceeded a given number of times in a time interval of interest. We assume that the number of exceedances occurs according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). This Poisson process has rate function lambda(t), t >= 0, which depends on some parameters that must be estimated. We take into account two cases of rate functions: the Weibull and the Goel-Okumoto. We consider models with and without change-points. When the presence of change-points is assumed, we may have the presence of either one, two or three change-points, depending of the data set. The parameters of the rate functions are estimated using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Results are applied to ozone data provided by the Mexico City monitoring network. In a first instance, we assume that there are no change-points present. Depending on the adjustment of the model, we assume the presence of either one, two or three change-points. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Regression Models with Heteroscedasticity using Bayesian Approach

In this paper, we compare the performance of two statistical approaches for the analysis of data obtained from the social research area. In the first approach, we use normal models with joint regression modelling for the mean and for the variance heterogeneity. In the second approach, we use hierarchical models. In the first case, individual and social variables are included in the regression modelling for the mean and for the variance, as explanatory variables, while in the second case, the variance at level 1 of the hierarchical model depends on the individuals (age of the individuals), and in the level 2 of the hierarchical model, the variance is assumed to change according to socioeconomic stratum. Applying these methodologies, we analyze a Colombian tallness data set to find differences that can be explained by socioeconomic conditions. We also present some theoretical and empirical results concerning the two models. From this comparative study, we conclude that it is better to jointly modelling the mean and variance heterogeneity in all cases. We also observe that the convergence of the Gibbs sampling chain used in the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for the jointly modeling the mean and variance heterogeneity is quickly achieved.

Estimating the number of ozone peaks in Mexico City using a non-homogeneous Poisson model

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the number of times an air quality standard is exceeded in a given period of time. A non-homogeneous Poisson model is proposed to analyse this issue. The rate at which the Poisson events occur is given by a rate function lambda(t), t >= 0. This rate function also depends on some parameters that need to be estimated. Two forms of lambda(t), t >= 0 are considered. One of them is of the Weibull form and the other is of the exponentiated-Weibull form. The parameters estimation is made using a Bayesian formulation based on the Gibbs sampling algorithm. The assignation of the prior distributions for the parameters is made in two stages. In the first stage, non-informative prior distributions are considered. Using the information provided by the first stage, more informative prior distributions are used in the second one. The theoretical development is applied to data provided by the monitoring network of Mexico City. The rate function that best fit the data varies according to the region of the city and/or threshold that is considered. In some cases the best fit is the Weibull form and in other cases the best option is the exponentiated-Weibull. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian analysis of skew-t multivariate null intercept measurement error model

The multivariate skew-t distribution (J Multivar Anal 79:93-113, 2001; J R Stat Soc, Ser B 65:367-389, 2003; Statistics 37:359-363, 2003) includes the Student t, skew-Cauchy and Cauchy distributions as special cases and the normal and skew-normal ones as limiting cases. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis of repeated measures, pretest/post-test data, under multivariate null intercept measurement error model (J Biopharm Stat 13(4):763-771, 2003) where the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows a Student t and skew-t distribution, respectively. The results and methods are numerically illustrated with an example in the field of dentistry.

Robust linear mixed models with skew-normal independent distributions from a Bayesian perspective

Linear mixed models were developed to handle clustered data and have been a topic of increasing interest in statistics for the past 50 years. Generally. the normality (or symmetry) of the random effects is a common assumption in linear mixed models but it may, sometimes, be unrealistic, obscuring important features of among-subjects variation. In this article, we utilize skew-normal/independent distributions as a tool for robust modeling of linear mixed models under a Bayesian paradigm. The skew-normal/independent distributions is an attractive class of asymmetric heavy-tailed distributions that includes the skew-normal distribution, skew-t, skew-slash and the skew-contaminated normal distributions as special cases, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric distributions in this type of models. The methods developed are illustrated using a real data set from Framingham cholesterol study. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis for a skew extension of the multivariate null intercept measurement error model

Skew-normal distribution is a class of distributions that includes the normal distributions as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in a multivariate, null intercept, measurement error model [R. Aoki, H. Bolfarine, J.A. Achcar, and D. Leao Pinto Jr, Bayesian analysis of a multivariate null intercept error-in -variables regression model, J. Biopharm. Stat. 13(4) (2003b), pp. 763-771] where the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows a skew-normal distribution. The results and methods are applied to a real dental clinical trial presented in [A. Hadgu and G. Koch, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial, J. Biopharm. Stat. 9 (1999), pp. 161-178].

Aerosol inorganic composition at a tropical site: Discrepancies between filter-based sampling and a semi-continuous method

The concentrations of the water-soluble inorganic aerosol species, ammonium (NH4+), nitrate (NO3-), chloride (Cl-), and sulfate (SO42-), were measured from September to November 2002 at a pasture site in the Amazon Basin (Rondnia, Brazil) (LBA-SMOCC). Measurements were conducted using a semi-continuous technique (Wet-annular denuder/Steam-Jet Aerosol Collector: WAD/SJAC) and three integrating filter-based methods, namely (1) a denuder-filter pack (DFP: Teflon and impregnated Whatman filters), (2) a stacked-filter unit (SFU: polycarbonate filters), and (3) a High Volume dichotomous sampler (HiVol: quartz fiber filters). Measurements covered the late dry season (biomass burning), a transition period, and the onset of the wet season (clean conditions). Analyses of the particles collected on filters were performed using ion chromatography (IC) and Particle-Induced X-ray Emission spectrometry (PIXE). Season-dependent discrepancies were observed between the WAD/SJAC system and the filter-based samplers. During the dry season, when PM2.5 (D-p <= 2.5 mu m) concentrations were similar to 100 mu g m(-3), aerosol NH4+ and SO42- measured by the filter-based samplers were on average two times higher than those determined by the WAD/SJAC. Concentrations of aerosol NO3- and Cl- measured with the HiVol during daytime, and with the DFP during day- and nighttime also exceeded those of the WAD/SJAC by a factor of two. In contrast, aerosol NO3- and Cl- measured with the SFU during the dry season were nearly two times lower than those measured by the WAD/SJAC. These differences declined markedly during the transition period and towards the cleaner conditions during the onset of the wet season (PM2.5 similar to 5 mu g m(-3)); when filter-based samplers measured on average 40-90% less than the WAD/SJAC. The differences were not due to consistent systematic biases of the analytical techniques, but were apparently a result of prevailing environmental conditions and different sampling procedures. For the transition period and wet season, the significance of our results is reduced by a low number of data points. We argue that the observed differences are mainly attributable to (a) positive and negative filter sampling artifacts, (b) presence of organic compounds and organosulfates on filter substrates, and (c) a SJAC sampling efficiency of less than 100%.

Critical discontinuous phase transition in the threshold contact process

We analyze a threshold contact process on a square lattice in which particles are created on empty sites with at least two neighboring particles and are annihilated spontaneously. We show by means of Monte Carlo simulations that the process undergoes a discontinuous phase transition at a definite value of the annihilation parameter, in accordance with the Gibbs phase rule, and that the discontinuous transition exhibits critical behavior. The simulations were performed by using boundary conditions in which the sites of the border of the lattice are permanently occupied by particles.

Solvent Effects in Chemical Processes. Water-Assisted Proton Transfer Reaction of Pterin in Aqueous Environment

Pterins are members of a family of heterocyclic compounds present in a wide variety of biological systems and may exist in two forms, corresponding to an acid and a basic tautomer. In this work, the proton transfer reaction between these tautomeric forms was investigated in the gas phase and in aqueous solution. In gas phase, the intramolecular mechanism was carried out for die isolated pterin by quantum mechanical second-order Moller-Plesset Perturbation theory (MP2/aug-cc-pVDZ) calculations and it indicates that the acid form is more stable than the basic form by -1.4 kcal/mol with a barrier of 34.2 kcal/mol with respect to the basic form. In aqueous solution, the role of the water molecules in the proton transfer reaction was analyzed in two separated parts, the direct participation of one water molecule in the reaction path, called water-assisted mechanism, and the complementary participation of the aqueous solvation. The water-assisted mechanism was carried out for one pterin-water cluster by quantum mechanical calculations and it indicates that the acid form is still more stable by -3.3 kcal/mol with a drastic reduction of 70% of the barrier, The bulk solution effect on the intramolecular and water-assisted mechanisms was included by free energy perturbation implemented on Monte Carlo simulations. The bulk water effect is found to be substantial and decisive when the reaction path involves the water-assisted mechanism. In this case, the free energy barrier is only 6.7 kcal/mol and the calculated relative Gibbs free energy for the two tautomers is -11.2 kcal/mol. This value is used to calculate the pK(a) value of 8.2 +/- 0.6 that is in excellent agreement with the experimental result of 7.9.

Immobilization of Alcohol Dehydrogenase in Phospholipid Langmuir-Blodgett Films To Detect Ethanol

Enzyme immobilization in nanostructured films may be useful for a number of biomimetic systems, particularly if suitable matrixes are identified. Here we show that alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) has high affinity toward a negatively charged phospholipid, dimyristoylphosphatidic acid (DMPA), which forms a Langmuir monolayer at an air-water interface. Incorporation of ADH into the DMPA monolayer was monitored with Surface pressure measurements; and polarization-modulation infrared reflection absorption spectroscopy, with the alpha-helices from ADH being mainly oriented parallel to the water surface. ADH remained at the interface even at high surface pressures, thus allowing deposition of Langmuir-Blodgett (LB) films from the DMPA-ADH film. Indeed, interaction with DMPA enhances the transfer of ADH, where the mass transferred onto a solid support increased from 134 ng for ADH on a Gibbs monolayer to 178 ng for an LB film with DMPA. With fluorescence spectroscopy it was possible to confirm that the ADH structure was preserved even after one month of the LB deposition. ADH-containing films deposited onto gold-interdigitated electrodes were employed in a sensor array capable of detecting ethanol at concentrations down to 10 ppb (in volume), using impedance spectroscopy as the method of detection.