Vírus e retrovírus

Projeto de Pós-Graduação/Dissertação apresentado à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciências Farmacêuticas

Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland

Countries across the world are being challenged to decarbonise their energy systems in response to diminishing fossil fuel reserves, rising GHG emissions and the dangerous threat of climate change. There has been a renewed interest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon energy as policy‐makers seek to identify and put in place the most robust sustainable energy system that can address this challenge. This thesis seeks to improve the evidence base underpinning energy policy decisions in Ireland with a particular focus on natural gas, which in 2011 grew to have a 30% share of Ireland’s TPER. Natural gas is used in all sectors of the Irish economy and is seen by many as a transition fuel to a low-carbon energy system; it is also a uniquely excellent source of data for many aspects of energy consumption. A detailed decomposition analysis of natural gas consumption in the residential sector quantifies many of the structural drives of change, with activity (R2 = 0.97) and intensity (R2 = 0.69) being the best explainers of changing gas demand. The 2002 residential building regulations are subject to an ex-post evaluation, which using empirical data finds a 44 ±9.5% shortfall in expected energy savings as well as a 13±1.6% level of non-compliance. A detailed energy demand model of the entire Irish energy system is presented together with scenario analysis of a large number of energy efficiency policies, which show an aggregate reduction in TFC of 8.9% compared to a reference scenario. The role for natural gas as a transition fuel over a long time horizon (2005-2050) is analysed using an energy systems model and a decomposition analysis, which shows the contribution of fuel switching to natural gas to be worth 12 percentage points of an overall 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Finally, an analysis of the potential for CCS in Ireland finds gas CCS to be more robust than coal CCS for changes in fuel prices, capital costs and emissions reduction and the cost optimal location for a gas CCS plant in Ireland is found to be in Cork with sequestration in the depleted gas field of Kinsale.

High-efficiency photovoltaics through mechanically stacked integration of solar cells based on the InP lattice constant

Solar Energy is a clean and abundant energy source that can help reduce reliance on fossil fuels around which questions still persist about their contribution to climate and long-term availability. Monolithic triple-junction solar cells are currently the state of the art photovoltaic devices with champion cell efficiencies exceeding 40%, but their ultimate efficiency is restricted by the current-matching constraint of series-connected cells. The objective of this thesis was to investigate the use of solar cells with lattice constants equal to InP in order to reduce the constraint of current matching in multi-junction solar cells. This was addressed by two approaches: Firstly, the formation of mechanically stacked solar cells (MSSC) was investigated through the addition of separate connections to individual cells that make up a multi-junction device. An electrical and optical modelling approach identified separately connected InGaAs bottom cells stacked under dual-junction GaAs based top cells as a route to high efficiency. An InGaAs solar cell was fabricated on an InP substrate with a measured 1-Sun conversion efficiency of 9.3%. A comparative study of adhesives found benzocyclobutene to be the most suitable for bonding component cells in a mechanically stacked configuration owing to its higher thermal conductivity and refractive index when compared to other candidate adhesives. A flip-chip process was developed to bond single-junction GaAs and InGaAs cells with a measured 4-terminal MSSC efficiency of 25.2% under 1-Sun conditions. Additionally, a novel InAlAs solar cell was identified, which can be used to provide an alternative to the well established GaAs solar cell. As wide bandgap InAlAs solar cells have not been extensively investigated for use in photovoltaics, single-junction cells were fabricated and their properties relevant to PV operation analysed. Minority carrier diffusion lengths in the micrometre range were extracted, confirming InAlAs as a suitable material for use in III-V solar cells, and a 1-Sun conversion efficiency of 6.6% measured for cells with 800 nm thick absorber layers. Given the cost and small diameter of commercially available InP wafers, InGaAs and InAlAs solar cells were fabricated on alternative substrates, namely GaAs. As a first demonstration the lattice constant of a GaAs substrate was graded to InP using an InxGa1-xAs metamorphic buffer layer onto which cells were grown. This was the first demonstration of an InAlAs solar cell on an alternative substrate and an initial step towards fabricating these cells on Si. The results presented offer a route to developing multi-junction solar cell devices based on the InP lattice parameter, thus extending the range of available bandgaps for high efficiency cells.

Feasibility of combined wind-wave energy platforms

The European Union has set out an ambitious 20% target for renewable energy use by 2020. It is expected that this will be met mainly by wind energy. Looking towards 2050, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of 80-95% are to be sought. Given the issues securing this target in the transport and agriculture sectors, it may only be possible to achieve this target if the power sector is carbon neutral well in advance of 2050. This has permitted the vast expansion of offshore renewables, wind, wave and tidal energy. Offshore wind has undergone rapid development in recent years however faces significant challenges up to 2020 to ensure commercial viability without the need for government subsidies. Wave energy is still in the very early stages of development so as yet there has been no commercial roll out. As both of these technologies are to face similar challenges in ensuring they are a viable alternative power generation method to fossil fuels, capitalising on the synergies is potentially a significant cost saving initiative. The advent of hybrid solutions in a variety of configurations is the subject of this thesis. A singular wind-wave energy platform embodies all the attributes of a hybrid system, including sharing space, transmission infrastructure, O&M activities and a platform/foundation. This configuration is the subject of this thesis, and it is found that an OWC Array platform with multi-MegaWatt wind turbines is a technically feasible, and potentially an economically feasible solution in the long term. Methods of design and analysis adopted in this thesis include numerical and physical modelling of power performance, structural analysis, fabrication cost modelling, simplified project economic modelling and time domain reliability modelling of a 210MW hybrid farm. The application of these design and analysis methods has resulted in a hybrid solution capable of producing energy at a cost between €0.22/kWh and €0.31/kWh depending on the source of funding for the project. Further optimisation through detailed design is expected to lower this further. This thesis develops new and existing methods of design and analysis of wind and wave energy devices. This streamlines the process of early stage development, while adhering to the widely adopted Concept Development Protocol, to develop a technically and economically feasible, combined wind-wave energy hybrid solution.

Real time analysis of atmospheric single particles in urban environments using aerosol time of flight mass spectrometry

In order to determine the size-resolved chemical composition of single particles in real-time an ATOFMS was deployed at urban background sites in Paris and Barcelona during the MEGAPOLI and SAPUSS monitoring campaigns respectively. The particle types detected during MEGAPOLI included several carbonaceous species, metal-containing types and sea-salt. Elemental carbon particle types were highly abundant, with 86% due to fossil fuel combustion and 14% attributed to biomass burning. Furthermore, 79% of the EC was apportioned to local emissions and 21% to continental transport. The carbonaceous particle types were compared with quantitative measurements from other instruments, and while direct correlations using particle counts were poor, scaling of the ATOFMS counts greatly improved the relationship. During SAPUSS carbonaceous species, sea-salt, dust, vegetative debris and various metal-containing particle types were identified. Throughout the campaign the site was influenced by air masses altering the composition of particles detected. During North African air masses the city was heavily influenced by Saharan dust. A regional stagnation was also observed leading to a large increase in carbonaceous particle counts. While the ATOFMS provides a list of particle types present during the measurement campaigns, the data presented is not directly quantitative. The quantitative response of the ATOFMS to metals was examined by comparing the ion signals within particle mass spectra and to hourly mass concentrations of; Na, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Zn and Pb. The ATOFMS was found to have varying correlations with these metals depending on sampling issues such as matrix effects. The strongest correlations were observed for Al, Fe, Zn, Mn and Pb. Overall the results of this work highlight the excellent ability of the ATOFMS in providing composition and mixing state information on atmospheric particles at high time resolution. However they also show its limitations in delivering quantitative information directly.

Small-bodied humans from Palau, Micronesia.

UNLABELLED: Newly discovered fossil assemblages of small bodied Homo sapiens from Palau, Micronesia possess characters thought to be taxonomically primitive for the genus Homo. BACKGROUND: Recent surface collection and test excavation in limestone caves in the rock islands of Palau, Micronesia, has produced a sizeable sample of human skeletal remains dating roughly between 940-2890 cal ybp. PRINCIPLE FINDINGS: Preliminary analysis indicates that this material is important for two reasons. First, individuals from the older time horizons are small in body size even relative to "pygmoid" populations from Southeast Asia and Indonesia, and thus may represent a marked case of human insular dwarfism. Second, while possessing a number of derived features that align them with Homo sapiens, the human remains from Palau also exhibit several skeletal traits that are considered to be primitive for the genus Homo. SIGNIFICANCE: These features may be previously unrecognized developmental correlates of small body size and, if so, they may have important implications for interpreting the taxonomic affinities of fossil specimens of Homo.

Oil and gas projects in the Western Amazon: threats to wilderness, biodiversity, and indigenous peoples.

BACKGROUND: The western Amazon is the most biologically rich part of the Amazon basin and is home to a great diversity of indigenous ethnic groups, including some of the world's last uncontacted peoples living in voluntary isolation. Unlike the eastern Brazilian Amazon, it is still a largely intact ecosystem. Underlying this landscape are large reserves of oil and gas, many yet untapped. The growing global demand is leading to unprecedented exploration and development in the region. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We synthesized information from government sources to quantify the status of oil development in the western Amazon. National governments delimit specific geographic areas or "blocks" that are zoned for hydrocarbon activities, which they may lease to state and multinational energy companies for exploration and production. About 180 oil and gas blocks now cover approximately 688,000 km(2) of the western Amazon. These blocks overlap the most species-rich part of the Amazon. We also found that many of the blocks overlap indigenous territories, both titled lands and areas utilized by peoples in voluntary isolation. In Ecuador and Peru, oil and gas blocks now cover more than two-thirds of the Amazon. In Bolivia and western Brazil, major exploration activities are set to increase rapidly. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Without improved policies, the increasing scope and magnitude of planned extraction means that environmental and social impacts are likely to intensify. We review the most pressing oil- and gas-related conservation policy issues confronting the region. These include the need for regional Strategic Environmental Impact Assessments and the adoption of roadless extraction techniques. We also consider the conflicts where the blocks overlap indigenous peoples' territories.

Dental topography and molar wear in Alouatta palliata from Costa Rica.

Paleoprimatologists depend on relationships between form and function of teeth to reconstruct the diets of fossil species. Most of this work has been limited to studies of unworn teeth. A new approach, dental topographic analysis, allows the characterization and comparison of worn primate teeth. Variably worn museum specimens have been used to construct species-specific wear sequences so that measurements can be compared by wear stage among taxa with known differences in diet. This assumes that individuals in a species tend to wear their molar teeth in similar ways, a supposition that has yet to be tested. Here we evaluate this assumption with a longitudinal study of changes in tooth form over time in primates. Fourteen individual mantled howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata) were captured and then recaptured after 2, 4, and 7 years when possible at Hacienda La Pacifica in Costa Rica between 1989-1999. Dental impressions were taken each time, and molar casts were produced and analyzed using dental topographic analysis. Results showed consistent decreases in crown slope and occlusal relief. In contrast, crown angularity, a measure of surface jaggedness, remained fairly constant except with extreme wear. There were no evident differences between specimens collected in different microhabitats. These results suggest that different individual mantled howling monkeys wear their teeth down in similar ways, evidently following a species-specific wear sequence. Dental topographic analysis may therefore be used to compare morphology among similarly worn individuals from different species.

Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa

Through an examination of global climate change models combined with hydrological data on deteriorating water quality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), we elucidate the ways in which the MENA countries are vulnerable to climate-induced impacts on water resources. Adaptive governance strategies, however, remain a low priority for political leaderships in the MENA region. To date, most MENA governments have concentrated the bulk of their resources on large-scale supply side projects such as desalination, dam construction, inter-basin water transfers, tapping fossil groundwater aquifers, and importing virtual water. Because managing water demand, improving the efficiency of water use, and promoting conservation will be key ingredients in responding to climate-induced impacts on the water sector, we analyze the political, economic, and institutional drivers that have shaped governance responses. While the scholarly literature emphasizes the importance of social capital to adaptive governance, we find that many political leaders and water experts in the MENA rarely engage societal actors in considering water risks. We conclude that the key capacities for adaptive governance to water scarcity in MENA are underdeveloped. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Environmental and technology policies for climate mitigation

We assess different policies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions and promoting innovation and diffusion of renewable energy. We evaluate the relative performance of policies according to incentives provided for emissions reduction, efficiency, and other outcomes. We also assess how the nature of technological progress through learning and research and development (R&D), and the degree of knowledge spillovers, affects the desirability of different policies. Due to knowledge spillovers, optimal policy involves a portfolio of different instruments targeted at emissions, learning, and R&D. Although the relative cost of individual policies in achieving reductions depends on parameter values and the emissions target, in a numerical application to the U.S. electricity sector, the ranking is roughly as follows: (1) emissions price, (2) emissions performance standard, (3) fossil power tax, (4) renewables share requirement, (5) renewables subsidy, and (6) R&D subsidy. Nonetheless, an optimal portfolio of policies achieves emissions reductions at a significantly lower cost than any single policy. © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Methane contamination of drinking water accompanying gas-well drilling and hydraulic fracturing.

Directional drilling and hydraulic-fracturing technologies are dramatically increasing natural-gas extraction. In aquifers overlying the Marcellus and Utica shale formations of northeastern Pennsylvania and upstate New York, we document systematic evidence for methane contamination of drinking water associated with shale-gas extraction. In active gas-extraction areas (one or more gas wells within 1 km), average and maximum methane concentrations in drinking-water wells increased with proximity to the nearest gas well and were 19.2 and 64 mg CH(4) L(-1) (n = 26), a potential explosion hazard; in contrast, dissolved methane samples in neighboring nonextraction sites (no gas wells within 1 km) within similar geologic formations and hydrogeologic regimes averaged only 1.1 mg L(-1) (P < 0.05; n = 34). Average δ(13)C-CH(4) values of dissolved methane in shallow groundwater were significantly less negative for active than for nonactive sites (-37 ± 7‰ and -54 ± 11‰, respectively; P < 0.0001). These δ(13)C-CH(4) data, coupled with the ratios of methane-to-higher-chain hydrocarbons, and δ(2)H-CH(4) values, are consistent with deeper thermogenic methane sources such as the Marcellus and Utica shales at the active sites and matched gas geochemistry from gas wells nearby. In contrast, lower-concentration samples from shallow groundwater at nonactive sites had isotopic signatures reflecting a more biogenic or mixed biogenic/thermogenic methane source. We found no evidence for contamination of drinking-water samples with deep saline brines or fracturing fluids. We conclude that greater stewardship, data, and-possibly-regulation are needed to ensure the sustainable future of shale-gas extraction and to improve public confidence in its use.

North atlantic deepwater temperature change during late pliocene and late quaternary climatic cycles

Variations in the ratio of magnesium to calcium (Mg/Ca) in fossil ostracodes from Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 607 in the deep North Atlantic show that the change in bottom water temperature during late Pliocene 41,000-year obliquity cycles averaged 1.5°C between 3.2 and 2.8 million years ago (Ma) and increased to 2.3°C between 2.8 and 2.3 Ma, coincidentally with the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. During the last two 100,000-year glacial-to-interglacial climatic cycles of the Quaternary, bottom water temperatures changed by 4.5°C. These results show that glacial deepwater cooling has intensified since 3.2 Ma, most likely as the result of progressively diminished deep-water production in the North Atlantic and of the greater influence of Antarctic bottom water in the North Atlantic during glacial periods. The ostracode Mg/Ca data also allow the direct determination of the temperature component of the benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope record from Site 607, as well as derivation of a hypothetical sea-level curve for the late Pliocene and late Quaternary. The effects of dissolution on the Mg/Ca ratios of ostracode shells appear to have been minimal.

Analysis of ocean power extraction capabilites of a rotary wave energy conversion system

Gemstone Team WAVES (Water and Versatile Energy Systems)

The effect of differences in methodology among some recent applications of shearing quotients.

A shearing quotient (SQ) is a way of quantitatively representing the Phase I shearing edges on a molar tooth. Ordinary or phylogenetic least squares regression is fit to data on log molar length (independent variable) and log sum of measured shearing crests (dependent variable). The derived linear equation is used to generate an 'expected' shearing crest length from molar length of included individuals or taxa. Following conversion of all variables to real space, the expected value is subtracted from the observed value for each individual or taxon. The result is then divided by the expected value and multiplied by 100. SQs have long been the metric of choice for assessing dietary adaptations in fossil primates. Not all studies using SQ have used the same tooth position or crests, nor have all computed regression equations using the same approach. Here we focus on re-analyzing the data of one recent study to investigate the magnitude of effects of variation in 1) shearing crest inclusion, and 2) details of the regression setup. We assess the significance of these effects by the degree to which they improve or degrade the association between computed SQs and diet categories. Though altering regression parameters for SQ calculation has a visible effect on plots, numerous iterations of statistical analyses vary surprisingly little in the success of the resulting variables for assigning taxa to dietary preference. This is promising for the comparability of patterns (if not casewise values) in SQ between studies. We suggest that differences in apparent dietary fidelity of recent studies are attributable principally to tooth position examined.

Considering the role of social dynamics and positional behavior in gestural communication research.

While the hominin fossil record cannot inform us on either the presence or extent of social and cognitive abilities that may have paved the way for the emergence of language, studying non-vocal communication among our closest living relatives, the African apes, may provide valuable information about how language originated. Although much has been learned from gestural signaling in non-human primates, we have not yet established how and why gestural repertoires vary across species, what factors influence this variation, and how knowledge of these differences can contribute to an understanding of gestural signaling's contribution to language evolution. In this paper, we review arguments surrounding the theory that language evolved from gestural signaling and suggest some important factors to consider when conducting comparative studies of gestural communication among African apes. Specifically, we propose that social dynamics and positional behavior are critical components that shape the frequency and nature of gestural signaling across species and we argue that an understanding of these factors could shed light on how gestural communication may have been the basis of human language. We outline predictions for the influence of these factors on the frequencies and types of gestures used across the African apes and highlight the importance of including these factors in future gestural communication research with primates.