The credit ratings game

The collapse of so many AAA-rated structured finance products in 2007-2008has brought renewed attention to the causes of ratings failures and the conflicts of interestin the Credit Ratings Industry. We provide a model of competition among Credit RatingsAgencies (CRAs) in which there are three possible sources of conflicts: 1) the CRA conflictof interest of understating credit risk to attract more business; 2) the ability of issuersto purchase only the most favorable ratings; and 3) the trusting nature of some investorclienteles who may take ratings at face value. We show that when combined, these give riseto three fundamental equilibrium distortions. First, competition among CRAs can reducemarket efficiency, as competition facilitates ratings shopping by issuers. Second, CRAs aremore prone to inflate ratings in boom times, when there are more trusting investors, andwhen the risks of failure which could damage CRA reputation are lower. Third, the industrypractice of tranching of structured products distorts market efficiency as its role is to deceivetrusting investors. We argue that regulatory intervention requiring: i) upfront paymentsfor rating services (before CRAs propose a rating to the issuer), ii) mandatory disclosure ofany rating produced by CRAs, and iii) oversight of ratings methodology can substantiallymitigate ratings inflation and promote efficiency.

Association of socioeconomic position with health behaviors and mortality

CONTEXT: Previous studies may have underestimated the contribution of health behaviors to social inequalities in mortality because health behaviors were assessed only at the baseline of the study. OBJECTIVE: To examine the role of health behaviors in the association between socioeconomic position and mortality and compare whether their contribution differs when assessed at only 1 point in time with that assessed longitudinally through the follow-up period. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Established in 1985, the British Whitehall II longitudinal cohort study includes 10 308 civil servants, aged 35 to 55 years, living in London, England. Analyses are based on 9590 men and women followed up for mortality until April 30, 2009. Socioeconomic position was derived from civil service employment grade (high, intermediate, and low) at baseline. Smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, and physical activity were assessed 4 times during the follow-up period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: A total of 654 participants died during the follow-up period. In the analyses adjusted for sex and year of birth, those with the lowest socioeconomic position had 1.60 times higher risk of death from all causes than those with the highest socioeconomic position (a rate difference of 1.94/1000 person-years). This association was attenuated by 42% (95% confidence interval [CI], 21%-94%) when health behaviors assessed at baseline were entered into the model and by 72% (95% CI, 42%-154%) when they were entered as time-dependent covariates. The corresponding attenuations were 29% (95% CI, 11%-54%) and 45% (95% CI, 24%-79%) for cardiovascular mortality and 61% (95% CI, 16%-425%) and 94% (95% CI, 35%-595%) for noncancer and noncardiovascular mortality. The difference between the baseline only and repeated assessments of health behaviors was mostly due to an increased explanatory power of diet (from 7% to 17% for all-cause mortality, respectively), physical activity (from 5% to 21% for all-cause mortality), and alcohol consumption (from 3% to 12% for all-cause mortality). The role of smoking, the strongest mediator in these analyses, did not change when using baseline or repeat assessments (from 32% to 35% for all-cause mortality). CONCLUSION: In a civil service population in London, England, there was an association between socioeconomic position and mortality that was substantially accounted for by adjustment for health behaviors, particularly when the behaviors were assessed repeatedly.

Impact of a board-game approach on current smokers: a randomized controlled trial.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The main objective of our study was to assess the impact of a board game on smoking status and smoking-related variables in current smokers. To accomplish this objective, we conducted a randomized controlled trial comparing the game group with a psychoeducation group and a waiting-list control group. METHODS: The following measures were performed at participant inclusion, as well as after a 2-week and a 3-month follow-up period: "Attitudes Towards Smoking Scale" (ATS-18), "Smoking Self-Efficacy Questionnaire" (SEQ-12), "Attitudes Towards Nicotine Replacement Therapy" scale (ANRT-12), number of cigarettes smoked per day, stages of change, quit attempts, and smoking status. Furthermore, participants were assessed for concurrent psychiatric disorders and for the severity of nicotine dependence with the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND). RESULTS: A time × group effect was observed for subscales of the ANRT-12, ATS-18 and SEQ-12, as well as for the number of cigarettes smoked per day. At three months follow-up, compared to the participants allocated to the waiting list group, those on Pick-Klop group were less likely to remain smoker.Outcomes at 3 months were not predicted by gender, age, FTND, stage of change, or psychiatric disorders at inclusion. CONCLUSIONS: The board game seems to be a good option for smokers. The game led to improvements in variables known to predict quitting in smokers. Furthermore, it increased smoking-cessation rates at 3-months follow-up. The game is also an interesting alternative for smokers in the precontemplation stage.

1-11-19, stade Bergeyre, football association, équipe de Paris [affrontant une équipe de Londres] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 56759

1-11-19, stade Bergeyre, football association, équipe de Paris [affrontant une équipe de Londres] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 56760

Équipe Olympique [football] association, stade Bergeyre 9/11/19, match Olympique contre [F. C. E.] de Levallois : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 56847

Équipe [de] Levallois [football] association, [stade Bergeyre] 9/11/19, match Olympique [de Paris] contre [F. C. E.] de Levallois : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 56848

Social value orientation as a moral intuition: Decision-making in the dictator game

We studied the decision making process in the Dictator Game and showed that decisions are the result of a two-step process. In a first step, decision makers generate an automatic, intuitive proposal. Given sufficient motivation and cognitive resources, they adjust this in a second, more deliberated phase. In line with the social intuitionist model, we show that one s Social Value Orientation determines intuitive choice tendencies in the first step, and that this effect is mediated by the dictator s perceived interpersonal closeness with the receiver. Self-interested concerns subsequently leadto a reduction of donation size in step 2. Finally, we show that increasing interpersonal closeness can promote pro-social decision-making.

The ethics of creative accounting: Some Spanish evidence

'Creative accounting' involves accountants in making accounting policy choices or manipulating transactions in such a way as to give the impression in the accounts that they prefer. While regarded as unethical by most observers, a defence of creative accounting can be based on the ability of the users of accounts to identify bias in accounting policy choices and make appropriate adjustments.In this paper we take the example of the Barcelona Football Club where the club management made three key accounting policy choices that presented a favourable position, and a supporters' club presented an alternative report choosing three alternative accounting policies that presented an unfavourable position. We presented each of these financial reports to one of two groups of Spanish bank loan offices, with supporting notes making the impact of the accounting policy choices clear. We found that the more favourable set of accounts was significantly more likely to attract a positive response to a loan request.This result undermines the defence for creative accounting, based on the ability of users to identify manipulation.

The determinants of football match attendance revisited: Empirical evidence from the Spanish Football League

An attendance equation is estimated using data on individual games playedin the Spanish First Division Football League. The specification includesas explanatory factors: economic variables, quality, uncertainty andopportunity costs. We concentrate the analysis on some specificationissues such as controlling the effect of unobservables given the paneldata structure of the data set, the type of functional form and thepotential endogeneity of prices. We obtain the expected effects onattendance for all the variables. The estimated price elasticities aresmaller than one in absolute value as usually occurs in this literaturebut are sensitive to the specification issues.

Football association, Saint-Ouen, 1/1/20, équipe du Racing [Club de France] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 57435

Football association, Saint-Ouen, équipe [du] Racing [Club de France], 1/1/20 : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 57436