ONeSAMP: a program to estimate effective population size using approximate Bayesian computation

The estimation of effective population size from one sample of genotypes has been problematic because most estimators have been proven imprecise or biased. We developed a web-based program, ONeSAMP that uses approximate Bayesian computation to estimate effective population size from a sample of microsatellite genotypes. ONeSAMP requires an input file of sampled individuals' microsatellite genotypes along with information about several sampling and biological parameters. ONeSAMP provides an estimate of effective population size, along with 95% credible limits. We illustrate the use of ONeSAMP with an example data set from a re-introduced population of ibex Capra ibex.

Bayesian sample size for exploratory clinical trials incorporating historical data

This paper presents a simple Bayesian approach to sample size determination in clinical trials. It is required that the trial should be large enough to ensure that the data collected will provide convincing evidence either that an experimental treatment is better than a control or that it fails to improve upon control by some clinically relevant difference. The method resembles standard frequentist formulations of the problem, and indeed in certain circumstances involving 'non-informative' prior information it leads to identical answers. In particular, unlike many Bayesian approaches to sample size determination, use is made of an alternative hypothesis that an experimental treatment is better than a control treatment by some specified magnitude. The approach is introduced in the context of testing whether a single stream of binary observations are consistent with a given success rate p(0). Next the case of comparing two independent streams of normally distributed responses is considered, first under the assumption that their common variance is known and then for unknown variance. Finally, the more general situation in which a large sample is to be collected and analysed according to the asymptotic properties of the score statistic is explored. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Origin of avian genome size and structure in non-avian dinosaurs

Avian genomes are small and streamlined compared with those of other amniotes by virtue of having fewer repetitive elements and less non-coding DNA(1,2). This condition has been suggested to represent a key adaptation for flight in birds, by reducing the metabolic costs associated with having large genome and cell sizes(3,4). However, the evolution of genome architecture in birds, or any other lineage, is difficult to study because genomic information is often absent for long-extinct relatives. Here we use a novel bayesian comparative method to show that bone-cell size correlates well with genome size in extant vertebrates, and hence use this relationship to estimate the genome sizes of 31 species of extinct dinosaur, including several species of extinct birds. Our results indicate that the small genomes typically associated with avian flight evolved in the saurischian dinosaur lineage between 230 and 250 million years ago, long before this lineage gave rise to the first birds. By comparison, ornithischian dinosaurs are inferred to have had much larger genomes, which were probably typical for ancestral Dinosauria. Using comparative genomic data, we estimate that genome-wide interspersed mobile elements, a class of repetitive DNA, comprised 5 - 12% of the total genome size in the saurischian dinosaur lineage, but was 7 - 19% of total genome size in ornithischian dinosaurs, suggesting that repetitive elements became less active in the saurischian lineage. These genomic characteristics should be added to the list of attributes previously considered avian but now thought to have arisen in non-avian dinosaurs, such as feathers(5), pulmonary innovations 6, and parental care and nesting

Effects of body size and lifestyle on evolution of mammal life histories

It has recently been proposed that life-history evolution is subject to a fundamental size-dependent constraint. This constraint limits the rate at which biomass can be produced so that production per unit of body mass is inevitably slower in larger organisms than in smaller ones. Here we derive predictions for how changes in body size and production rates evolve in different lifestyles subject to this constraint. Predictions are tested by using data on the mass of neonate tissue produced per adult per year in 637 placental mammal species and are generally supported. Compared with terrestrial insectivores with generalized primitive traits, mammals that have evolved more specialized lifestyles have divergent massspecific production rates: (i) increased in groups that specialize on abundant and reliable foods: grazing and browsing herbivores (artiodactyls, lagomorphs, perissoclactyls, and folivorous rodents) and flesh-eating marine mammals (pinnipeds, cetaceans); and (ii) decreased in groups that have lifestyles with reduced death rates: bats, primates, arboreal, fossorial, and desert rodents, bears, elephants, and rhinos. Convergent evolution of groups with similar lifestyles is common, so patterns of productivity across mammalian taxa reflect both ecology and phylogeny. The overall result is that groups with different lifestyles have parallel but offset relationships between production rate and body size. These results shed light on the evolution of the fast-slow life-history continuum, suggesting that variation occurs along two axes corresponding to body size and lifestyle.

The influence of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus ssp oleifera var. biennis) canopy size on grass weed growth and grass weed seed return

Four experiments conducted over three seasons (2002-05) at the Crops Research Unit, University of Reading, investigated effects of canopy management of autumn sown oilseed rape (Brassica napus L. ssp. oleifera var. biennis (DC.) Metzg.) on competition with grass weeds. Emphasis was placed on the effect of the crop on the weeds. Rape canopy size was manipulated using sowing date, seed rate and the application of autumn fertilizer. Lolium multiflorum Lam., L. x boucheanum Kunth and Alopecurus myosuroides Huds. were sown as indicative grass weeds. The effects of sowing date, seed rate and autumn nitrogen on crop competitive ability were correlated with rape biomass and fractional interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) by the rape floral layer, to the extent that by spring there was good evidence of crop: weed replacement. An increase in seed rate up to the highest plant densities tested increased both rape biomass and competitiveness, e.g. in 2002/3, L. multiflorum head density was reduced from 539 to 245 heads/m(2) and spikelet density from 13 170 to 5960 spikelets/m(2) when rape plant density was increased from 16 to 81 plants/m(2). Spikelets/head of Lolium spp. was little affected by rape seed rate, but the length of heads of A. myosuroides was reduced by 9 % when plant density was increased from 29-51 plants/m(2). Autumn nitrogen increased rape biomass and reduced L. multiflorum head density (415 and 336 heads/m(2) without and with autumn nitrogen, respectively) and spikelet density (9990 and 8220 spikelets/m(2) without and with autumn nitrogen, respectively). The number of spikelets/head was not significantly affected by autumn nitrogen. Early sowing could increase biomass and competitiveness, but poor crop establishment sometimes overrode the effect. Where crop and weed establishment was similar for both sowing dates, a 2-week delay (i.e. early September to mid-September) increased L. multiflorum head density from 226 to 633 heads/m(2) and spikelet density from 5780 to 15 060 spikelets/m(2).

Vertical distribution, size and composition of the weed seedbank under various tillage and herbicide treatments in a sequence of industrial crops

Investigations were conducted during the 2003, 2004 and 2005 growing seasons in northern Greece to evaluate effects of tillage regime (mouldboard plough, chisel plough and rotary tiller), cropping sequence (continuous cotton, cotton-sugar beet rotation and continuous tobacco) and herbicide treatment on weed seedbank dynamics. Amaranthus spp. and Portulaca oleracea were the most abundant species, ranging from 76% to 89% of total weed seeds found in 0-15 and 15-30 cm soil depths during the 3 years. With the mouldboard plough, 48% and 52% of the weed seedbank was found in the 0-15 and 15-30 cm soil horizons, while approximately 60% was concentrated in the upper 15 cm soil horizon for chisel plough and rotary tillage. Mouldboard ploughing significantly buried more Echinochloa crus-galli seeds in the 15-30 cm soil horizon compared with the other tillage regimes. Total seedbank (0-30 cm) of P. oleracea was significantly reduced in cotton-sugar beet rotation compared with cotton and tobacco monocultures, while the opposite occurred for E. crus-galli. Total seed densities of most annual broad-leaved weed species (Amaranthus spp., P. oleracea, Solanum nigrum) and E. crus-galli were lower in herbicide treated than in untreated plots. The results suggest that in light textured soils, conventional tillage with herbicide use gradually reduces seed density of small seeded weed species in the top 15 cm over several years. In contrast, crop rotation with the early established sugar beet favours spring-germinating grass weed species, but also prevents establishment of summer-germinating weed species by the early developing crop canopy.

Allelic size standards and reference genotypes to unify international cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) microsatellite data

Standardisation of microsatellite allele profiles between laboratories is of fundamental importance to the transferability of genetic fingerprint data and the identification of clonal individuals held at multiple sites. Here we describe two methods of standardisation applied to the microsatellite fingerprinting of 429 Theobroma cacao L. trees representing 345 accessions held in the worlds largest Cocoa Intermediate Quarantine facility: the use of a partial allelic ladder through the production of 46 cloned and sequenced allelic standards (AJ748464 to AJ48509), and the use of standard genotypes selected to display a diverse allelic range. Until now a lack of accurate and transferable identification information has impeded efforts to genetically improve the cocoa crop. To address this need, a global initiative to fingerprint all international cocoa germplasm collections using a common set of 15 microsatellite markers is in progress. Data reported here have been deposited with the International Cocoa Germplasm Database and form the basis of a searchable resource for clonal identification. To our knowledge, this is the first quarantine facility to be completely genotyped using microsatellite markers for the purpose of quality control and clonal identification. Implications of the results for retrospective tracking of labelling errors are briefly explored.

Numbers of antral follicles during follicular waves in cattle: Evidence for high variation among animals, very high repeatability in individuals, and an inverse association with serum follicle-stimulating hormone concentrations

The extent, causes, and physiological significance of the variation in number of follicles growing during ovarian follicular waves in human beings and cattle are unknown. Therefore, the present study examined the variability and repeatability in numbers of follicles 3 mm or greater in diameter during the follicular waves in bovine estrous cycles, and we determined if the variation in number of follicles during waves was associated with alterations in secretion of FSH, estradiol, inhibin, and insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I). Dairy cattle were subjected to twice-daily ultrasound analysis to count total number of antral follicles 3 mm or greater in diameter throughout 138 different follicular waves. In another study, blood samples were taken at frequent intervals from cows that consistently had low or very high numbers of follicles during waves and were subjected to immunoassays. Results indicate the following: First, despite an approximately sevenfold variation in number of follicles during waves among animals and marked differences in age, stage of lactation, and season of the year, a very highly repeatable (0.95) number of follicles 3 mm or greater in diameter is maintained during the ovulatory and nonovulatory follicular waves of individuals. Second, variation in number of follicles 3 mm or greater in diameter during waves and the inverse association of number of follicles during waves with FSH are not directly explained by alterations in the patterns of secretion of estradiol, inhibin, or IGF-I. Third, ovarian ultrasound analysis can be used reliably by investigators to identify cattle that consistently have low or high numbers of follicles during waves, thus providing a novel experimental model to determine the causes and physiological significance of the high variation in antral follicle number during follicular waves among single-ovulating species, such as cattle or humans.

The effect of potato variety mixtures on epidemics of late blight, in relation to plot size and level of resistance

Potatoes of a number of varieties of contrasting levels of resistance were planted in pure or mixed stands in four experiments over 3 years. Three experiments compared the late blight severity and progress in mixtures with that in pure stands. Disease on susceptible or moderately resistant varieties typical of those in commercial use was similar in mixtures and pure stands. In 2 of 3 years, there were slight reductions on cv. Sante, which is moderately susceptible, in mixture with cv. Cara, which is moderately resistant. Cara was unaffected by this mixture. Mixtures of an immune or near-immune partner with Cara or Sante substantially reduced disease on the latter. The effect of the size of plots of individual varieties or mixtures on blight severity was compared in two experiments. Larger plots had a greater area under the disease progress curve, but the average rate of disease progress was greater in smaller plots; this may be because most disease progress took place later, under more favourable conditions, in the smaller plots. In one experiment, two planting densities were used. Density had no effect on disease and did not interact with mixture effects. The overall conclusion is that, while mixtures of potato varieties may be desirable for other reasons, they do not offer any improvement on the average of the disease resistance of the components.

Association between ovarian follicle development and pregnancy rates in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles

Ovarian follicle development continues in a wave-like manner during the bovine oestrous cycle giving rise to variation in the duration of ovulatory follicle development. The objectives of the present study were to determine whether a relationship exists between the duration of ovulatory follicle development and pregnancy rates following artificial insemination (AI) in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles, and to identify factors influencing follicle turnover and pregnancy rate and the relationship between these two variables. Follicle development was monitored by daily transrectal ultrasonography from 10 days after oestrus until the subsequent oestrus in 158 lactating dairy cows. The cows were artificially inseminated following the second observed oestrus and pregnancy was diagnosed 35 days later. The predominant pattern of follicle development was two follicle waves (74.7%) with three follicle waves in 22.1% of oestrous cycles and four or more follicle waves in 3.2% of oestrous cycles. The interval from ovulatory follicle emergence to oestrus (EOI) was 3 days longer (P < 0.0001) in cows with two follicle waves than in those with three waves. Ovulatory follicles from two-wave oestrous cycles grew more slowly but were approximately 2 mm larger (P < 0.0001) on the day of oestrus. Twin ovulations were observed in 14.2% of oestrous cycles and occurred more frequently (P < 0.001) in three-wave oestrous cycles; consequently EOI was shorter in cows with twin ovulations. Overall, 57.0% of the cows were diagnosed pregnant 35 days after AI. Linear logistic regression analysis revealed an inverse relationship between EOI and the proportion of cows diagnosed pregnant, among all cows (n = 158; P < 0.01) and amongst those with single ovulations (n = 145; P < 0.05). Mean EOI was approximately I day shorter (P < 0.01) in cows that became pregnant than in non-pregnant cows; however, pregnancy rates did not differ significantly among cows with different patterns of follicle development. These findings confirm and extend previous observations in pharmacologically manipulated cattle and show, for the first time, that in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles, natural variation in the duration of post-emergence ovulatory follicle development has a significant effect on pregnancy rate, presumably reflecting variation in oocyte developmental competence.

Effect of plant density and initial crown size on growth, development and yield in strawberry cultivars Elsanta and Bolero

The effects of density (plant spacing) and initial plant size on vegetative growth, flowering and fruiting were studied in the strawberry cultivars Elsanta and Bolero in their first and second years of cropping. The influence of these factors on light use and dry-matter partitioning was investigated. The size of planting material in 'Elsanta' and 'Bolero' slightly affected plant growth and yield, but this effect was not consistent and radiation use efficiency (RUE) and harvest index were unaltered. Plant spacing did not significantly affect the early stages of crop growth, but was important in determining growth and yield later in the season, this effect being more significant in the second year of cropping. Plant growth and yield per plant increased as plant spacing increased from 20 to 30 cm in both 'Elsanta' and 'Bolero', but the highest harvest index and yield per square metre were obtained at the closest spacing. Increased plant spacing also resulted in a greater leaf area and leaf area index. However, light was used less efficiently resulting in a lower RUE and lower harvest index (HI).

Bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) ligands and receptors in bovine ovarian follicle cells: actions of BMP-4,-6 and-7 on granulosa cells and differential modulation of Smad-1 phosphorylation by follistatin

Given the paucity of information on the potential roles of bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs) in the ruminant ovary we conducted immunolocalization and functional studies on cells isolated from bovine antral follicles. Immunocytochemistry revealed expression of BMP-4 and -7 in isolated theca cells whereas granulosa cells and oocytes selectively expressed RMP-6. All three cell types expressed a range of BMP-responsive type-I (BMPRIB, ActRI) and type-II (BMPRII, ActRII, ActRIIB) receptors supporting autocrine/paracrine roles within the follicle. This was reinforced by functional experiments on granulosa cells which showed that BMP-4, -6 and -7 promoted cellular accumulation of phosphorylated Smad-1 but not Smad-2 and enhanced 'basal' and IGF-stimulated secretion of oestradiol (E2), inhibin-A, activin-A and follistatin (FS). Concomitantly, each BMP suppressed 'basal' and IGF-stimulated progesterone secretion, consistent with an action to prevent or delay atresia and/or luteinization. BMPs also increased viable cell number under 'basal' (BMP-4 and -7) and IGF-stimulated (BMP-4, -6 and -7) conditions. Since FS, a product of bovine granulosa cells, has been shown to bind several BMPs, we used the Biacore technique to compare its binding affinities for activin-A (prototype FS ligand) and BMP-4, -6 and -7. Compared with activin-A (K-d 0.28 +/- 0.02 nM; 100%), the relative affinities of FS for BMP-4, -6 and -7 were 10, 5 and 1% respectively. Moreover, studies on granulosa cells showed that preincubation of ligand with excess FS abolished activin-A-induced phosphorylation of Smad-2 and BMP-4-induced phosphorylation of Smad-1. However, FS only partially reversed BMP-6-induced Smad-1 phosphorylation and had no inhibitory effect on BMP-7-induced Smad-1 phosphorylation. These findings support functional roles for BMP-4, -6 and -7 as paracrine/autocrine modulators of granulosa cell steroidogenesis, peptide secretion and proliferation in bovine antral follicles. The finding that FS can differentially modulate BMP-induced receptor activation and that this correlates with the relative binding affinity of FS for each BMP type implicates FS as a potential modulator of BMP action in the ovary.

Comparative evaluation of a new effective population size estimator based on approximate Bayesian computation

We describe and evaluate a new estimator of the effective population size (N-e), a critical parameter in evolutionary and conservation biology. This new "SummStat" N-e. estimator is based upon the use of summary statistics in an approximate Bayesian computation framework to infer N-e. Simulations of a Wright-Fisher population with known N-e show that the SummStat estimator is useful across a realistic range of individuals and loci sampled, generations between samples, and N-e values. We also address the paucity of information about the relative performance of N-e estimators by comparing the SUMMStat estimator to two recently developed likelihood-based estimators and a traditional moment-based estimator. The SummStat estimator is the least biased of the four estimators compared. In 32 of 36 parameter combinations investigated rising initial allele frequencies drawn from a Dirichlet distribution, it has the lowest bias. The relative mean square error (RMSE) of the SummStat estimator was generally intermediate to the others. All of the estimators had RMSE > 1 when small samples (n = 20, five loci) were collected a generation apart. In contrast, when samples were separated by three or more generations and Ne less than or equal to 50, the SummStat and likelihood-based estimators all had greatly reduced RMSE. Under the conditions simulated, SummStat confidence intervals were more conservative than the likelihood-based estimators and more likely to include true N-e. The greatest strength of the SummStat estimator is its flexible structure. This flexibility allows it to incorporate any, potentially informative summary statistic from Population genetic data.

The life history legacy of evolutionary body size change in carnivores

We estimate the body sizes of direct ancestors of extant carnivores, and examine selected aspects of life history as a function not only of species' current size, but also of recent changes in size. Carnivore species that have undergone marked recent evolutionary size change show life history characteristics typically associated with species closer to the ancestral body size. Thus, phyletic giants tend to mature earlier and have larger litters of smaller offspring at shorter intervals than do species of the same body size that are not phyletic giants. Phyletic dwarfs, by contrast, have slower life histories than nondwarf species of the same body size. We discuss two possible mechanisms for the legacy of recent size change: lag (in which life history variables cannot evolve as quickly as body size, leading to species having the 'wrong' life history for their body size) and body size optimization (in which life history and hence body size evolve in response to changes in energy availability); at present, we cannot distinguish between these alternatives. Our finding that recent body size changes help explain residual variation around life history allometries shows that a more dynamic view of character change enables comparative studies to make more precise predictions about species traits in the context of their evolutionary background.