An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Path integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This note presents a method of evaluating the distribution of a path integral for Markov chains on a countable state space.

A real-time PCR assay for the detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae by LightCycler

The detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is now recognized as a sensitive and specific method of diagnosing infection by the organism. In this Study 152 urine specimens were examined for N. gonorrhoeae by a real-time PCR method using the LightCycler platform and results were compared to an in-house PCR assay using an ELISA-based detection method. N. gonorrhoeae DNA was detected in 29 (19%) specimens by LightCycler PCR (LC-PCR) and in 31 (20%) specimens by the in house PCR method. The LightCycler assay proved to be specific and 94% sensitive when compared to the in house PCR method. These features combined with the rapid turn-around time for results makes the LC-PCR particularly suitable for the detection of N. gonorrhoeae in a routine clinical laboratory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Reasoning about real-time repetitions: terminating and nonterminating

It is common for a real-time system to contain a nonterminating process monitoring an input and controlling an output. Hence, a real-time program development method needs to support nonterminating repetitions. In this paper we develop a general proof rule for reasoning about possibly nonterminating repetitions. The rule makes use of a Floyd-Hoare-style loop invariant that is maintained by each iteration of the repetition, a Jones-style relation between the pre- and post-states on each iteration, and a deadline specifying an upper bound on the starting time of each iteration. The general rule is proved correct with respect to a predicative semantics. In the case of a terminating repetition the rule reduces to the standard rule extended to handle real time. Other special cases include repetitions whose bodies are guaranteed to terminate, nonterminating repetitions with the constant true as a guard, and repetitions whose termination is guaranteed by the inclusion of a fixed deadline. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Saving, productivity and national income: a discrete-time geometric framework

This paper proposes an alternative geometric framework for analysing the inter-relationship between domestic saving, productivity and income determination in discrete time. The framework provides a means of understanding how low saving economies like the United States sustained high growth rates in the 1990s whereas high saving Japan did not. It also illustrates how the causality between saving and economic activity runs both ways and that discrete changes in national output and income depend on both current and previous accumulation behaviour. The open economy analogue reveals how international capital movements can create external account imbalances that enhance income growth for both borrower and lender economies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Atom lasers, coherent states, and coherence. I. Physically realizable ensembles of pure states

A laser, be it an optical laser or an atom laser, is an open quantum system that produces a coherent beam of bosons (photons or atoms, respectively). Far above threshold, the stationary state rho(ss) of the laser mode is a mixture of coherent-field states with random phase, or, equivalently, a Poissonian mixture of number states. This paper answers the question: can descriptions such as these, of rho(ss) as a stationary ensemble of pure states, be physically realized? Here physical realization is as defined previously by us [H. M. Wiseman and J. A. Vaccaro, Phys. Lett. A 250, 241 (1998)]: an ensemble of pure states for a particular system can be physically realized if, without changing the dynamics of the system, an experimenter can (in principle) know at any time that the system is in one of the pure-state members of the ensemble. Such knowledge can be obtained by monitoring the baths to which the system is coupled, provided that coupling is describable by a Markovian master equation. Using a family of master equations for the (atom) laser, we solve for the physically realizable (PR) ensembles. We find that for any finite self-energy chi of the bosons in the laser mode, the coherent-state ensemble is not PR; the closest one can come to it is an ensemble of squeezed states. This is particularly relevant for atom lasers, where the self-energy arising from elastic collisions is expected to be large. By contrast, the number-state ensemble is always PR. As the self-energy chi increases, the states in the PR ensemble closest to the coherent-state ensemble become increasingly squeezed. Nevertheless, there are values of chi for which states with well-defined coherent amplitudes are PR, even though the atom laser is not coherent (in the sense of having a Bose-degenerate output). We discuss the physical significance of this anomaly in terms of conditional coherence (and hence conditional Bose degeneracy).

Integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This paper presents a method of evaluating the expected value of a path integral for a general Markov chain on a countable state space. We illustrate the method with reference to several models, including birth-death processes and the birth, death and catastrophe process. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

The compositional inverse of a class of permutation polynomials over a finite field

A new class of bilinear permutation polynomials was recently identified. In this note we determine the class of permutation polynomials which represents the functional inverse of the bilinear class.

Simulations of thermal Bose fields in the classical limit

We demonstrate that the time-dependent projected Gross-Pitaevskii equation (GPE) derived earlier [M. J. Davis, R. J. Ballagh, and K. Burnett, J. Phys. B 34, 4487 (2001)] can represent the highly occupied modes of a homogeneous, partially-condensed Bose gas. Contrary to the often held belief that the GPE is valid only at zero temperature, we find that this equation will evolve randomized initial wave functions to a state describing thermal equilibrium. In the case of small interaction strengths or low temperatures, our numerical results can be compared to the predictions of Bogoliubov theory and its perturbative extensions. This demonstrates the validity of the GPE in these limits and allows us to assign a temperature to the simulations unambiguously. However, the GPE method is nonperturbative, and we believe it can be used to describe the thermal properties of a Bose gas even when Bogoliubov theory fails. We suggest a different technique to measure the temperature of our simulations in these circumstances. Using this approach we determine the dependence of the condensate fraction and specific heat on temperature for several interaction strengths, and observe the appearance of vortex networks. Interesting behavior near the critical point is observed and discussed.