Reengenharia de sistemas na recuperação e modernização de produtos: proposta de um modelo baseado em risco.

Produtos com um tempo considerável de utilização podem ser objeto de um processo de manutenção mais amplo e profundo, que visa prolongar a sua vida útil. O termo recuperação é aplicado a este tipo de manutenção, que visa à substituição de peças defeituosas, desgastadas, e/ou com a vida útil encerrada. O surgimento de novos paradigmas e de um novo conjunto de doutrinas operacionais pode mudar as expectativas e necessidades das partes interessadas de modo que o produto pode ser proposto para uma modernização. Assim, o produto pode ser reengenheirado durante a sua recuperação. Para realizar um projeto de recuperação e modernização, propõe-se uma abordagem em seis passos centrada numa decisão baseada no risco para classificar os componentes de acordo com a ação a ser realizada. A análise do produto é desenvolvida com base em técnicas de desmontagem e uma análise da fase operacional é realizada para as tomadas de decisões. Deste modo, um componente pode sofrer manutenção, ser modernizado, ser excluído, ser inserido ou permanecer fora do escopo dos trabalhos. O processo da gestão baseada em risco também inclui duas fases de monitoramento de risco continuado: durante a produção e na fase de operação. As decisões podem ser revistas pelo uso da análise bayesiana. Um estudo de caso é proposto para ilustrar o modelo num programa de recuperação e modernização de veículos blindados realizada numa unidade do Exército Brasileiro. A aplicação da metodologia permitiu a seleção de uma alternativa de modernização, considerando riscos e benefícios. O desdobramento das análises no projeto detalhado permitiu a definição final do escopo de recuperação e modernização, observando efeitos de propagação de alterações de engenharia. A principal contribuição deste trabalho é a formalização de um estudo da recuperação e modernização como projeto específico, descrevendo suas características de uma forma a permitir a aplicação de um modelo baseado em risco.

Controlador integrado baseado em conceito híbrido e controle geométrico para embarcações posicionadas dinamicamente.

O conceito de controle híbrido é aplicado à operação de alívio entre um FPWSO e um navio aliviador. Ambos os navios mantêm suas posições e aproamentos pelo resultado da ação do seu Sistema de Posicionamento Dinâmico (SPD). O alívio dura cerca de 24 horas para ser concluído. Durante este período, o estado de mar pode se alterar e os calados estão sendo constantemente alterados. Um controlador híbrido é projetado para permitir modificacões dos parâmetros de controle/observação se alguma alteração significante do estado de mar e/ou calado das embarcações ocorrer. O principal objetivo dos controladores é manter o posicionamento relativo entre os navios com o intuito de evitar perigosa proximidade ou excesso de tensão no cabo. Com isto em mente, uma nova estratégia de controle que atue integradamente em ambos os navios é proposta baseda em geometria diferencial. Observadores não lineares baseados em passividade são aplicados para estimar a posição, a velocidade e as forças externas de mares calmos até extremos. O critério para troca do controle/observação é baseado na variação do calado e no estado de mar. O calado é assumido conhecido e o estado de mar é estimado pela frequência de pico do espectro do movimento de primeira ordem dos navios. Um modelo de perturbação é proposto para encontrar o número de controladores do sistema híbrido. A equivalência entre o controle geométrico e o controlador baseado em Multiplicadores de Lagrange é demonstrada. Assumindo algumas hipóteses, a equivalência entre os controladores geométrico e o PD é também apresentada. O desempenho da nova estratégia é avaliada por meio de simulações numéricas e comparada a um controlador PD. Os resultados apresentam muito bom desempenho em função do objetivo proposto. A comparação entre a abordagem geométrica e o controlador PD aponta um desempenho muito parecido entre eles.

Prediction of hidden multiferroic order in graphene zigzag ribbons

An electronic phase with coexisting magnetic and ferroelectric order is predicted for graphene ribbons with zigzag edges. The electronic structure of the system is described with a mean-field Hubbard model that yields results very similar to those of density functional calculations. Without further approximations, the mean-field theory is recasted in terms of a BCS wave function for electron-hole pairs in the edge bands. The BCS coherence present in each spin channel is related to spin-resolved electric polarization. Although the total electric polarization vanishes, due to an internal phase locking of the BCS state, strong magnetoelectric effects are expected in this system. The formulation naturally accounts for the two gaps in the quasiparticle spectrun, Δ0 and Δ1, and relates them to the intraband and interband self-energies.

Noncollinear magnetic phases and edge states in graphene quantum Hall bars

Application of a perpendicular magnetic field to charge neutral graphene is expected to result in a variety of broken symmetry phases, including antiferromagnetic, canted, and ferromagnetic. All these phases open a gap in bulk but have very different edge states and noncollinear spin order, recently confirmed experimentally. Here we provide an integrated description of both edge and bulk for the various magnetic phases of graphene Hall bars making use of a noncollinear mean field Hubbard model. Our calculations show that, at the edges, the three types of magnetic order are either enhanced (zigzag) or suppressed (armchair). Interestingly, we find that preformed local moments in zigzag edges interact with the quantum spin Hall like edge states of the ferromagnetic phase and can induce backscattering.

Simulation Results of AgriPoliS about Diminishing Capital Subsidies and Restrictions. Factor Markets Working Document No. 55, June 2013

This paper investigates the impacts of high interest rates for borrowed capital and credit restrictions on the structural development of four European regions. The method used is the model AgriPoliS which is a spatial-dynamic agent-based model. It is able to provide aggregated results at the regional level, but very individual results as well by considering farms as independent entities. Farms can choose between different investment options during the simulation. Several scenarios with different interest rates for borrowed capital on the one hand as well as with different levels of credit restrictions on the other hand are tested and compared. Results show that higher interest rates have less impact on declining production branches than on expanding ones. If they have the possibility farms invest in the most profitable production branch which relative profitability might have changed with high interest rates. Credit restrictions lead farms to choose smaller and cheaper investments than expensive and large ones. Results also show that income losses in both cases due to under-investment compared to the reference situation are partially compensated by lower rental prices. The impacts on structural change also differ depending on the region and the initial situation. In summary, credit subsidies or imperfections on credit markets might have indirect impacts on the type of dominant investment and therefore on the whole regional agricultural sector as well.

Near Real-Time Detection Of Pipe Bursts in Water Distribution Systems

The research work presented in the thesis describes a new methodology for the automated near real-time detection of pipe bursts in Water Distribution Systems (WDSs). The methodology analyses the pressure/flow data gathered by means of SCADA systems in order to extract useful informations that go beyond the simple and usual monitoring type activities and/or regulatory reporting , enabling the water company to proactively manage the WDSs sections. The work has an interdisciplinary nature covering AI techniques and WDSs management processes such as data collection, manipulation and analysis for event detection. Indeed, the methodology makes use of (i) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for the short-term forecasting of future pressure/flow signal values and (ii) Rule-based Model for bursts detection at sensor and district level. The results of applying the new methodology to a District Metered Area in Emilia- Romagna’s region, Italy have also been reported in the thesis. The results gathered illustrate how the methodology is capable to detect the aforementioned failure events in fast and reliable manner. The methodology guarantees the water companies to save water, energy, money and therefore enhance them to achieve higher levels of operational efficiency, a compliance with the current regulations and, last but not least, an improvement of customer service.

Conservation of freshwater thermal habitats for Pacific salmon in a changing climate

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The gap equations for spin singlet and triplet ferromagnetic superconductors

We derive gap equations for superconductivity in coexistence with ferromagnetism. We treat singlet and triplet states With either equal spin pairing (ESP) or opposite spin pairing (OSP) states, and study the behaviour of these states as a function of exchange splitting. For the s-wave singlet state we find that our gap equations correctly reproduce the Clogston-Chandrasekhar limiting behaviour and the phase diagram of the Baltensperger-Sarma equation (excluding the FFLO region). The singlet superconducting order parameter is shown to be independent of exchange splitting at zero temperature, as is assumed in the derivation of the Clogston-Chandrasekhar limit. P-wave triplet states of the OSP type behave similarly to the singlet state as a function of exchange splitting. On the other hand, ESP triplet states show a very different behaviour. In particular, there is no Clogston-Chandrasekhar limiting and the superconducting critical temperature, T-C, is actually increased by exchange splitting.

Do harvest refuges buffer kangaroos against evolutionary responses to selective harvesting?

There is a wealth of literature documenting a directional change of body size in heavily harvested populations. Most of this work concentrates on aquatic systems, but terrestrial populations are equally at risk. This paper explores the capacity of harvest refuges to counteract potential effects of size-selective harvesting on the allele frequency,of populations. We constructed a stochastic, individual-based model parameterized with data on red kangaroos. Because we do not know which part of individual growth would change in the course of natural selection, we explored the effects of two alternative models of individual growth in which alleles affect either the growth rate or the maximum size. The model results show that size-selective harvesting can result in significantly smaller kangaroos for a given age when the entire population is subject to harvesting. In contrast, in scenarios that include dispersal from harvest refuges, the initial allele frequency remains virtually unchanged.

Coherent molecular bound states of bosons and fermions near a Feshback resonance

We analyze molecular bound states of atomic quantum gases near a Feshbach resonance. A simple, renormalizable field theoretic model is shown to have exact solutions in the two-body sector, whose binding energy agrees well with observed experimental results in both Bosonic and Fermionic cases. These solutions, which interpolate between BEC and BCS theories, also provide a more general variational ansatz for resonant superfluidity and related problems.

Consumption habit and international stock returns

We use the consumption-based asset pricing model with habit formation to study the predictability and cross-section of returns from the international equity markets. We find that the predictability of returns from many developed countries' equity markets is explained in part by changing prices of risks associated with consumption relative to habit at the world as well as local levels. We also provide an exploratory investigation of the cross-sectional implications of the model under the complete world market integration hypothesis and find that the model performs mildly better than the traditional consumption-based model. the unconditional and conditional world CAPMs and a three-factor international asset pricing model. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mapping water quality and substrate cover in optically complex coastal and reef waters: an integrated approach

Sustainable management of coastal and coral reef environments requires regular collection of accurate information on recognized ecosystem health indicators. Satellite image data and derived maps of water column and substrate biophysical properties provide an opportunity to develop baseline mapping and monitoring programs for coastal and coral reef ecosystem health indicators. A significant challenge for satellite image data in coastal and coral reef water bodies is the mixture of both clear and turbid waters. A new approach is presented in this paper to enable production of water quality and substrate cover type maps, linked to a field based coastal ecosystem health indicator monitoring program, for use in turbid to clear coastal and coral reef waters. An optimized optical domain method was applied to map selected water quality (Secchi depth, Kd PAR, tripton, CDOM) and substrate cover type (seagrass, algae, sand) parameters. The approach is demonstrated using commercially available Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper image data over a coastal embayment exhibiting the range of substrate cover types and water quality conditions commonly found in sub-tropical and tropical coastal environments. Spatially extensive and quantitative maps of selected water quality and substrate cover parameters were produced for the study site. These map products were refined by interactions with management agencies to suit the information requirements of their monitoring and management programs. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices

The recent deregulation in electricity markets worldwide has heightened the importance of risk management in energy markets. Assessing Value-at-Risk (VaR) in electricity markets is arguably more difficult than in traditional financial markets because the distinctive features of the former result in a highly unusual distribution of returns-electricity returns are highly volatile, display seasonalities in both their mean and volatility, exhibit leverage effects and clustering in volatility, and feature extreme levels of skewness and kurtosis. With electricity applications in mind, this paper proposes a model that accommodates autoregression and weekly seasonals in both the conditional mean and conditional volatility of returns, as well as leverage effects via an EGARCH specification. In addition, extreme value theory (EVT) is adopted to explicitly model the tails of the return distribution. Compared to a number of other parametric models and simple historical simulation based approaches, the proposed EVT-based model performs well in forecasting out-of-sample VaR. In addition, statistical tests show that the proposed model provides appropriate interval coverage in both unconditional and, more importantly, conditional contexts. Overall, the results are encouraging in suggesting that the proposed EVT-based model is a useful technique in forecasting VaR in electricity markets. (c) 2005 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the taxonomic status of dingoes Canis familiaris dingo for conservation

1. The conservation status of the dingo Canis familiaris dingo is threatened by hybridization with the domestic dog C. familiaris familiaris. A practical method that can estimate the different levels of hybridization in the field is urgently required so that animals below a specific threshold of dingo ancestry (e.g. 1/4 or 1/2 dingoes) can reliably be identified and removed from dingo populations. 2. Skull morphology has been traditionally used to assess dingo purity, but this method does not discriminate between the different levels of dingo ancestry in hybrids. Furthermore, measurements can only be reliably taken from the skulls of dead animals. 3. Methods based on the analysis of variation in DNA are able to discriminate between the different levels of hybridization, but the validity of this method has been questioned because the materials currently used as a reference for dingoes are from captive animals of unproven genetic purity. The use of pre-European materials would improve the accuracy of this method, but suitable material has not been found in sufficient quantity to develop a reliable reference population. Furthermore, current methods based on DNA are impractical for the field-based discrimination of hybrids because samples require laboratory analysis. 4. Coat colour has also been used to estimate the extent of hybridization and is possibly the most practical method to apply in the field. However, this method may not be as powerful as genetic or morphological analyses because some hybrids (e.g. Australian cattle dog x dingo) are similar to dingoes in coat colour and body form. This problem may be alleviated by using additional visual characteristics such as the presence/absence of ticking and white markings.

Simulation of a complete reflected shock tunnel showing a vortex mechanism for flow contamination

Simulations of a complete reflected shock tunnel facility have been performed with the aim of providing a better understanding of the flow through these facilities. In particular, the analysis is focused on the premature contamination of the test flow with the driver gas. The axisymmetric simulations model the full geometry of the shock tunnel and incorporate an iris-based model of the primary diaphragm rupture mechanics, an ideal secondary diaphragm and account for turbulence in the shock tube boundary layer with the Baldwin-Lomax eddy viscosity model. Two operating conditions were examined: one resulting in an over-tailored mode of operation and the other resulting in approximately tailored operation. The accuracy of the simulations is assessed through comparison with experimental measurements of static pressure, pitot pressure and stagnation temperature. It is shown that the widely-accepted driver gas contamination mechanism in which driver gas 'jets' along the walls through action of the bifurcated foot of the reflected shock, does not directly transport the driver gas to the nozzle at these conditions. Instead, driver gas laden vortices are generated by the bifurcated reflected shock. These vortices prevent jetting of the driver gas along the walls and convect driver gas away from the shock tube wall and downstream into the nozzle. Additional vorticity generated by the interaction of the reflected shock and the contact surface enhances the process in the over-tailored case. However, the basic mechanism appears to operate in a similar way for both the over-tailored and the approximately tailored conditions.