Identifying financial crises in real time

Following the thermodynamic formulation of a multifractal measure that was shown to enable the detection of large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crises in real time. We calculate the partition function from which we can obtain thermodynamic quantities analogous to the free energy and specific heat. The index is defined as the normalized energy variation and it can be used to study the behavior of stochastic time series, such as financial market daily data. Famous financial market crashes-Black Thursday (1929), Black Monday (1987) and the subprime crisis (2008)-are identified with clear and robust results. The method is also applied to the market fluctuations of 2011. From these results it appears as if the apparent crisis of 2011 is of a different nature to the other three. We also show that the analysis has forecasting capabilities. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimação Bayesiana dos parâmetros da distribuição Exponencial Generalizada Bivariada

Pós-graduação em Matematica Aplicada e Computacional - FCT

Analysis of 25 mutual eclipses and occultations between the Galilean satellites observed from Brazil in 2009

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Performance Analysis of MODIS 500-m Spatial Resolution Products for Estimating Chlorophyll-a Concentrations in Oligo-to Meso-Trophic Waters Case Study: Itumbiara Reservoir, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Ansiedade e baixo nível motivacional associados ao fracasso na cessação do tabagismo

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Crescimento e sobrevivência de espécies arbóreas em plantio de enriquecimento de mata ciliar em restauração

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Ferramentas da qualidade na colheita mecanizada de cana-de-açúcar

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Produção Vegetal) - FCAV

Determinação de chumbo por análise voltamétrica de pulso diferencial por redissolução anódica em regiões de falhas geológicas com emissão de radônio e filhos de radônio no município de Presidente Prudente

Pós-graduação em Química - IBILCE

Anesthesia-related and perioperative cardiac arrest in low- and high-income countries: a systematic review with meta-regression and proportional meta-analysis

The anesthesia-related cardiac arrest (CA) rate is a quality indicator to improve patient safety in the perioperative period. A systematic review with meta-analysis of the worldwide literature related to anesthesia-related CA rate has not yet been performed.This study aimed to analyze global data on anesthesia-related and perioperative CA rates according to country's Human Development Index (HDI) and by time. In addition, we compared the anesthesia-related and perioperative CA rates in low- and high-income countries in 2 time periods.A systematic review was performed using electronic databases to identify studies in which patients underwent anesthesia with anesthesia-related and/or perioperative CA rates. Meta-regression and proportional meta-analysis were performed with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to evaluate global data on anesthesia-related and perioperative CA rates according to country's HDI and by time, and to compare the anesthesia-related and perioperative CA rates by country's HDI status (low HDI vs high HDI) and by time period (pre-1990s vs 1990s-2010s), respectively.Fifty-three studies from 21 countries assessing 11.9 million anesthetic administrations were included. Meta-regression showed that anesthesia-related (slope: -3.5729; 95% CI: -6.6306 to -0.5152; P = 0.024) and perioperative (slope: -2.4071; 95% CI: -4.0482 to -0.7659; P = 0.005) CA rates decreased with increasing HDI, but not with time. Meta-analysis showed per 10,000 anesthetics that anesthesia-related and perioperative CA rates declined in high HDI (2.3 [95% CI: 1.2-3.7] before the 1990s to 0.7 [95% CI: 0.5-1.0] in the 1990s-2010s, P < 0.001; and 8.1 [95% CI: 5.1-11.9] before the 1990s to 6.2 [95% CI: 5.1-7.4] in the 1990s-2010s, P < 0.001, respectively). In low-HDI countries, anesthesia-related CA rates did not alter significantly (9.2 [95% CI: 2.0-21.7] before the 1990s to 4.5 [95% CI: 2.4-7.2] in the 1990s-2010s, P = 0.14), whereas perioperative CA rates increased significantly (16.4 [95% CI: 1.5-47.1] before the 1990s to 19.9 [95% CI: 10.9-31.7] in the 1990s-2010s, P = 0.03).Both anesthesia-related and perioperative CA rates decrease with increasing HDI but not with time. There is a clear and consistent reduction in anesthesia-related and perioperative CA rates in high-HDI countries, but an increase in perioperative CA rates without significant alteration in the anesthesia-related CA rates in low-HDI countries comparing the 2 time periods.

Segurança do paciente: análise das notificações de eventos em um hospital privado

Pós-graduação em Enfermagem (mestrado profissional) - FMB

Homicide and public security indicator trends in the city of Sao Paulo between 1996 and 2008: a time-series ecological study

The scope of this paper was to analyze the association between homicides and public security indicators in Sao Paulo between 1996 and 2008, after monitoring the unemployment rate and the proportion of youths in the population. A time-series ecological study for 1996 and 2008 was conducted with Sao Paulo as the unit of analysis. Dependent variable: number of deaths by homicide per year. Main independent variables: arrest-incarceration rate, access to firearms, police activity. Data analysis was conducted using Stata. IC 10.0 software. Simple and multivariate negative binomial regression models were created. Deaths by homicide and arrest-incarceration, as well as police activity were significantly associated in simple regression analysis. Access to firearms was not significantly associated to the reduction in the number of deaths by homicide (p>0,05). After adjustment, the associations with both the public security indicators were not significant. In Sao Paulo the role of public security indicators are less important as explanatory factors for a reduction in homicide rates, after adjustment for unemployment rate and a reduction in the proportion of youths. The results reinforce the importance of socioeconomic and demographic factors for a change in the public security scenario in Sao Paulo.

Transplantation for Autoimmune Diseases in North and South America: A Report of the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research

Hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is an emerging therapy for patients with severe autoimmune diseases (AID). We report data on 368 patients with AID who underwent HCT in 64 North and South American transplantation centers reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research between 1996 and 2009. Most of the HCTs involved autologous grafts (n = 339); allogeneic HCT (n = 29) was done mostly in children. The most common indications for HCT were multiple sclerosis, systemic sclerosis, and systemic lupus erythematosus. The median age at transplantation was 38 years for autologous HCT and 25 years for allogeneic HCT. The corresponding times from diagnosis to HCT were 35 months and 24 months. Three-year overall survival after autologous HCT was 86% (95% confidence interval [CI], 81%-91%). Median follow-up of survivors was 31 months (range, 1-144 months). The most common causes of death were AID progression, infections, and organ failure. On multivariate analysis, the risk of death was higher in patients at centers that performed fewer than 5 autologous HCTs (relative risk, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.1-11.1; P = .03) and those that performed 5 to 15 autologous HCTs for AID during the study period (relative risk, 4.2; 95% CI, 1.5-11.7; P = .006) compared with patients at centers that performed more than 15 autologous HCTs for AID during the study period. AID is an emerging indication for HCT in the region. Collaboration of hematologists and other disease specialists with an outcomes database is important to promote optimal patient selection, analysis of the impact of prognostic variables and long-term outcomes, and development of clinical trials. Biol Blood Marrow Transplant 18: 1471-1478 (2012) (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation

A log-linear regression model for the beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution with censored data

The beta-Birnbaum-Saunders (Cordeiro and Lemonte, 2011) and Birnbaum-Saunders (Birnbaum and Saunders, 1969a) distributions have been used quite effectively to model failure times for materials subject to fatigue and lifetime data. We define the log-beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution by the logarithm of the beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Explicit expressions for its generating function and moments are derived. We propose a new log-beta-Birnbaum-Saunders regression model that can be applied to censored data and be used more effectively in survival analysis. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters for censored data and investigate influence diagnostics. The new location-scale regression model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be presented in the data. Its usefulness is illustrated by means of two real data sets. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Working Full-Time and Studying in the Evening Hours Among Young Apprentices and Trainees

Objective: This research aims to assess apprentices' and trainees' work conditions, psychosocial factors at work, as well as health symptoms after joining the labor force. Background: Despite the fact that there are over 3.5 million young working students in Brazil, this increasing rate brings with it difficult working conditions such as work pressure, heavy workloads, and lack of safety training. Method: This study was carried out in a nongovernmental organization (NGO) with 40 young members of a first job program in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. They filled out a comprehensive questionnaire focused on sociodemographic variables, working conditions, and health symptoms. Individual and collective semi-structured interviews were conducted. Empirical data analysis was performed using analysis of content. Results: The majority of participants mentioned difficulties in dealing with the pressure and their share of responsibilities at work. Body pains, headaches, sleep deprivation during the workweek, and frequent colds were mentioned. Lack of appropriate task and safety training contributed to the occurrence of work injuries. Conclusion: Having a full-time job during the day coupled with evening high school attendance may jeopardize these people's health and future. Application: This study can make a contribution to the revision and implementation of work training programs for adolescents. It can also help in the creation of more sensible policies regarding youth employment.

Comparing non-stationary and irregularly spaced time series

In this paper, we present approximate distributions for the ratio of the cumulative wavelet periodograms considering stationary and non-stationary time series generated from independent Gaussian processes. We also adapt an existing procedure to use this statistic and its approximate distribution in order to test if two regularly or irregularly spaced time series are realizations of the same generating process. Simulation studies show good size and power properties for the test statistic. An application with financial microdata illustrates the test usefulness. We conclude advocating the use of these approximate distributions instead of the ones obtained through randomizations, mainly in the case of irregular time series. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.