From Fluid Dynamics to Human Psychology.What Drives Financial Markets Towards Extreme Events

For decades researchers have been trying to build models that would help understand price performance in financial markets and, therefore, to be able to forecast future prices. However, any econometric approaches have notoriously failed in predicting extreme events in markets. At the end of 20th century, market specialists started to admit that the reasons for economy meltdowns may originate as much in rational actions of traders as in human psychology. The latter forces have been described as trading biases, also known as animal spirits. This study aims at expressing in mathematical form some of the basic trading biases as well as the idea of market momentum and, therefore, reconstructing the dynamics of prices in financial markets. It is proposed through a novel family of models originating in population and fluid dynamics, applied to an electricity spot price time series. The main goal of this work is to investigate via numerical solutions how well theequations succeed in reproducing the real market time series properties, especially those that seemingly contradict standard assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, in particular the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate price realizations that closely reproduce the behaviour and statistics of the original electricity spot price. That is achieved in all price levels, from small and medium-range variations to price spikes. The latter were generated from price dynamics and market momentum, without superimposing jump processes in the model. In the light of the presented results, it seems that the latest assumptions about human psychology and market momentum ruling market dynamics may be true. Therefore, other commodity markets should be analyzed with this model as well.

Application of Computational Fluid Dynamics in Modeling Blood Flow in Human Thoracic Aorta

The aim of this study was to simulate blood flow in thoracic human aorta and understand the role of flow dynamics in the initialization and localization of atherosclerotic plaque in human thoracic aorta. The blood flow dynamics in idealized and realistic models of human thoracic aorta were numerically simulated in three idealized and two realistic thoracic aorta models. The idealized models of thoracic aorta were reconstructed with measurements available from literature, and the realistic models of thoracic aorta were constructed by image processing Computed Tomographic (CT) images. The CT images were made available by South Karelia Central Hospital in Lappeenranta. The reconstruction of thoracic aorta consisted of operations, such as contrast adjustment, image segmentations, and 3D surface rendering. Additional design operations were performed to make the aorta model compatible for the numerical method based computer code. The image processing and design operations were performed with specialized medical image processing software. Pulsatile pressure and velocity boundary conditions were deployed as inlet boundary conditions. The blood flow was assumed homogeneous and incompressible. The blood was assumed to be a Newtonian fluid. The simulations with idealized models of thoracic aorta were carried out with Finite Element Method based computer code, while the simulations with realistic models of thoracic aorta were carried out with Finite Volume Method based computer code. Simulations were carried out for four cardiac cycles. The distribution of flow, pressure and Wall Shear Stress (WSS) observed during the fourth cardiac cycle were extensively analyzed. The aim of carrying out the simulations with idealized model was to get an estimate of flow dynamics in a realistic aorta model. The motive behind the choice of three aorta models with distinct features was to understand the dependence of flow dynamics on aorta anatomy. Highly disturbed and nonuniform distribution of velocity and WSS was observed in aortic arch, near brachiocephalic, left common artery, and left subclavian artery. On the other hand, the WSS profiles at the roots of branches show significant differences with geometry variation of aorta and branches. The comparison of instantaneous WSS profiles revealed that the model with straight branching arteries had relatively lower WSS compared to that in the aorta model with curved branches. In addition to this, significant differences were observed in the spatial and temporal profiles of WSS, flow, and pressure. The study with idealized model was extended to study blood flow in thoracic aorta under the effects of hypertension and hypotension. One of the idealized aorta models was modified along with the boundary conditions to mimic the thoracic aorta under the effects of hypertension and hypotension. The results of simulations with realistic models extracted from CT scans demonstrated more realistic flow dynamics than that in the idealized models. During systole, the velocity in ascending aorta was skewed towards the outer wall of aortic arch. The flow develops secondary flow patterns as it moves downstream towards aortic arch. Unlike idealized models, the distribution of flow was nonplanar and heavily guided by the artery anatomy. Flow cavitation was observed in the aorta model which was imaged giving longer branches. This could not be properly observed in the model with imaging containing a shorter length for aortic branches. The flow circulation was also observed in the inner wall of the aortic arch. However, during the diastole, the flow profiles were almost flat and regular due the acceleration of flow at the inlet. The flow profiles were weakly turbulent during the flow reversal. The complex flow patterns caused a non-uniform distribution of WSS. High WSS was distributed at the junction of branches and aortic arch. Low WSS was distributed at the proximal part of the junction, while intermedium WSS was distributed in the distal part of the junction. The pulsatile nature of the inflow caused oscillating WSS at the branch entry region and inner curvature of aortic arch. Based on the WSS distribution in the realistic model, one of the aorta models was altered to induce artificial atherosclerotic plaque at the branch entry region and inner curvature of aortic arch. Atherosclerotic plaque causing 50% blockage of lumen was introduced in brachiocephalic artery, common carotid artery, left subclavian artery, and aortic arch. The aim of this part of the study was first to study the effect of stenosis on flow and WSS distribution, understand the effect of shape of atherosclerotic plaque on flow and WSS distribution, and finally to investigate the effect of lumen blockage severity on flow and WSS distributions. The results revealed that the distribution of WSS is significantly affected by plaque with mere 50% stenosis. The asymmetric shape of stenosis causes higher WSS in branching arteries than in the cases with symmetric plaque. The flow dynamics within thoracic aorta models has been extensively studied and reported here. The effects of pressure and arterial anatomy on the flow dynamic were investigated. The distribution of complex flow and WSS is correlated with the localization of atherosclerosis. With the available results we can conclude that the thoracic aorta, with complex anatomy is the most vulnerable artery for the localization and development of atherosclerosis. The flow dynamics and arterial anatomy play a role in the localization of atherosclerosis. The patient specific image based models can be used to diagnose the locations in the aorta vulnerable to the development of arterial diseases such as atherosclerosis.

Impact of irrigation on yield and energy balance of the production of oil and cake of two sunflower varieties

The energy balance for the production of sunflower oil and cake was carried out during the agricultural and industrial stage phase, where it was considered a cold extraction by hydraulic pressing, with the plant location in a rural area with a radius of 30km range. Data on productivity was used in two varieties of sunflower (Helio 358 and Aguará 04) grown in different seasons (2007/2008, 2008/2009), under different irrigation levels. Data showed that irrigation resulted in an increase in productivity of both varieties, and the best response was observed for Aguará 04 variety. Moreover, the increased intensity of irrigation negatively affected the energy balance, reducing the ratio between energy produced and energy used in the production chain. The most significant inputs in the energy intake were fertilizer followed by diesel oil, when irrigation was not used for. When the irrigation technique was used, the most significant inputs, in order of representativeness, were: energy, fertilizer and equipment.

Validation study of an overall radiation balance estimation method under Ponta Grossa (PR) Brazil weather conditions

Radiation balance is the fraction of incident solar radiation upon earth surface which is available to be used in several natural processes, such as biological metabolism, water loss by vegetated surfaces, variation of temperature in farming systems and organic decomposition. The present study aimed to assess and validate the performance of two estimation models for Rn in Ponta Grossa city, Paraná State, Brazil. To this end, during the period of 04/01/2008 to 04/30/2011, from radiometric data collected by an automatic weather station set at the Experimental Station, of the State University of Ponta Grossa. We performed a linear regression study by confrontation between measurements made through radiometric balance and Rn estimates obtained from Brunt classical method, and the proposed method. Both models showed excellent performance and were confirmed by the statistical parameters applied. However, the alternative method has the advantage of requiring only global solar radiation values, temperature, and relative humidity.

Weather variables, water balance, growth, and agro industrial yield of sugarcane

The objective of this study was to evaluate the meteorological variables, water deficiency, growth, and agro-industrial yield of sugarcane varieties: RB72454, RB863129, RB867515, RB92579, RB93509, RB931003, RB951541, and RB971755, in rainfed crop in two harvests in the Rio Largo-AL region. The meteorological variables were obtained in an automatic station and water balance was done by Thornthwaite & Mather method. During the study period, the air temperature ranged from 16.6 to 35.9 ºC. In the first production cycle rained 1,806 mm and the crop evapotranspiration was 1,775 mm. In the second cycle, the rainfall totaled 1,632 mm and the crop evapotranspiration was 1,290 mm. The average water excess of two production cycles was 689 mm and the water deficit totaled 665 mm. The average agricultural productivity in the plant was 86.8 t ha-1, in the first ratoon was 75.2 t ha-1 and the agro-industrial yield average was 12.9 and 10.9 tons of sugar per hectare in the plant and first ratoon, respectively. The air temperature was not limiting to the growth of sugarcane and the rainfall was higher than the crop evapotranspiration, but due to poor distribution of the rains there was water deficit. The most productive varieties were RB93509, RB92579, and RB863129.

Application of artificial neural networks as an alternative to volumetric water balance in drip irrigation management in watermelon crop

Precision irrigation seeks to establish strategies which achieve an efficient ratio between the volume of water used (reduction in input) and the productivity obtained (increase in production). There are several studies in the literature on strategies for achieving this efficiency, such as those dealing with the method of volumetric water balance (VWB). However, it is also of great practical and economic interest to set up versatile implementations of irrigation strategies that: (i) maintain the performance obtained with other implementations, (ii) rely on few computational resources, (iii) adapt well to field conditions, and (iv) allow easy modification of the irrigation strategy. In this study, such characteristics are achieved when using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to determine the period of irrigation for a watermelon crop in the Irrigation Perimeter of the Lower Acaraú, in the state of Ceará, Brazil. The Volumetric Water Balance was taken as the standard for comparing the management carried out with the proposed implementation of ANN. The statistical analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed management, which is able to replace VWB as a strategy in automation.

Energy balance in the poultry-shed system and its influence on broiler performance

ABSTRACTThe objective of this study was to determine the energy balance of the poultry-shed system and its effect on broiler performance during the production cycle. The experimental design was completely random with sub-divided blocks. The blocks were composed of five different types of sheds and the sub-blocks of the evaluation times (00:00 h to 23:00 h), allowing an analysis of variance and a comparison between means with the Tukey test. There were no significant differences between the mean values of the exchanges of sensible, latent and total heat between the poultry sheds but the differences for the evaluation times were significant (P<0.05). There was no significant difference between sheds 1 and 4 for broiler productive performance regarding weight gain, feed consumption and feed conversion. Bird performance was significant (P<0.05) for the remaining poultry sheds. The productive indexes remained below the ranges considered ideal for broilers and values in the final weeks were characterized by the poor installation efficiency in controlling temperature variations and, consequently, the energy balance in the system, which adversely affected bird productive performance.

Peritoneal fluid changes in horses subjected to small colon distension

Intestinal devitalization in cases of small colon obstruction may be difficult to detect based only in clinical signs. The purpose was to serially evaluate blood and peritoneal fluid of horses subjected to small colon distension. Seventeen adult horses were allotted in three groups. In the small colon-distended group (DG, n=7) a surgically-implanted latex balloon was inflated to promote intraluminal small colon distension. In the shamoperated group (SG, n=5), the balloon was implanted but not inflated, and no surgery was done in the control group (CG, n=5). Blood and peritoneal fluid were sampled before and after (6 samples with a 30-minute interval) intestinal obstruction for cytological and biochemical analyses. No significant changes in clinical signs occurred within groups or across time during the experimental period. There were no statistical differences among SG and SG groups in hematologic and blood chemistry variables. Although total protein concentration and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activity in peritoneal fluid remained most of the time within reference values during the experimental period in all groups, increases from baseline values were detected in SG and DG groups. Such increases occurred earlier, progressively and with greater magnitude in the DG when compared with the SG (P<0.05). Increases from baselines values were also observed in total nucleated cells and neutrophils counts in the DG (P<0.05). In conclusion, distension of the equine small colon induced progressive subtle increases in total protein and LDH concentrations in the peritoneal fluid during the first hours. Serial evaluation of these variables in peritoneal fluid may be useful for early detection of intestinal devitalization in clinical cases of equine small colon obstruction.

Metabolic evaluation of dairy cows submitted to three different strategies to decrease the effects of negative energy balance in early postpartum

In early lactation dairy cattle suffer metabolic alterations caused by negative energy balance, which predisposes to fatty liver and ketosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the metabolic condition of high yielding dairy cows subjected to three treatments for preventing severe lipomobilization and ketosis in early lactation. Fifty four multiparous Holstein cows yielding >30 L/day were divided into four groups: control (CN= no treatment), glucose precursor (PG= propylene-glycol), hepatic protector (Mp= Mercepton®), and energy supplement with salts of linolenic and linoleic faty acids (Mg-E= Megalac-E®). Treatments were administrated randomly at moment of calving until 8 weeks postpartum. Blood samples were collected on days 1, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42 and 49 postpartum. Body condition score (BCS) was evaluated at the same periods and milk yield was recorded at 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th weeks of lactation. Concentrations of non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA), albumin, AST, ß-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA), cholesterol, glucose, total protein, urea and triglycerides were analyzed in blood samples. Cut-off points for subclinical ketosis were defined when BHBA >1.4 mmol/L and NEFA >0.7 mmol/L. General occurrence of subclinical ketosis was 24% during the period. An ascendant curve of cholesterol and glucose was observed from the 1st to the 8th week of lactation, while any tendency was observed with BHBA and NEFA, although differences among treatments were detected (p<0.05). BCS decreased from a mean of 3.85 at 1st week to 2.53 at 8th week of lactation (p=0.001). Milk yield was higher in the Mg-E group compared with the other treatment groups (p<0.05) Compared with the CN group, the treatments with Mp and PG did not show significant differences in blood biochemistry and milk yield. Cows receiving PG and Mg-E showed higher values of BHBA and NEFA (P<0.05), indicating accentuated lipomobilization. Supplementation with Mg-E also resulted in significant higher concentrations of cholesterol, BHBA, urea, AST and lower values of glycemia. This performance may be explained by the highest milk yield observed with this treatment. Treatments with PG and Mp did not improve milk yield, compared with control cows, but did not show metabolic evidence of ketosis, fat mobilization or fatty liver. These results suggest that treatment with Mg-E improves milk production but induces a higher negative energy balance leading to moderated lipomobilization and ketone bodies production, increasing the risk of fatty liver.

Enteral fluid therapy through nasogastric tube in rumen cannulated goats

This paper reports the effects of fluid therapy in goats through nasogastric route with an electrolyte solution composed by concentrations of sodium, potassium and chloride similar to goat plasma (140mmol/L of Na+, 4.5mmol/L of K+, 110mmol/L of Cl-). Four Alpine Chamoisee goats, two of them with evident leakage of the rumen cannulas, were used in a crossover experimental design of two periods and two groups. In one group the two goats were submitted to a treatment protocol to induce dehydration before the fluid therapy, whereas the other group was not. Fluid therapy consisted supplying 10mL/kg/h of the electrolyte solution during 8 hours. No signs of discomfort or stress were observed. The dehydration model employed caused a mild dehydration indicated by decrease in feces humidity, body weight and abdominal circumference, and increase in plasma total solids concentration. During fluid therapy globular volume and plasma total solids decreased, whereas % body weight and abdominal circumference increased. No signs of hyperhydration were observed and serum electrolytes (Na+, Cl-, K+) presented no significant alterations in both groups. Fluid therapy proposed in this study was efficient to treat dehydration, even for rumen cannulated animals with evident leakage, and can be administrated safely with no electrolyte imbalance.

Porcine follicular fluid concentration of free insulin-like growth factor-I collected from different diameter ovarian follicles

The study aimed to quantify the concentrations of free IGF-I in serum and fluid of ovarian follicles in pre-pubertal gilts and describe the ovarian morphology by measuring the size of the ovaries and counting the number of surface follicles. Ovaries (n=1,000) from pre-pubertal gilts were obtained immediately after slaughter. A total of 10 samplings were performed, with ovaries obtained from 50 females for each collection. The follicles situated on the surface of each ovary were classified as small (SFs, 2 to 5mm in diameter) or large (LFs 6 to 10mm in diameter) and the follicular fluid was obtained by follicle aspiration. The collection of serum samples was performed after the gilts exsanguination using sterile tubes. From the pool of serum and follicular fluid obtained from 50 females, the concentration of free IGF-I was determined in each sample using an enzyme immunoassay kit (ELISA). The description of ovarian morphometry was performed in 100 ovaries from randomly selected gilts. The larger and smaller lengths of ovaries were measured, and the total number of SFs and LFs present on the surface of each ovary were also counted. The IGF-I concentration was greater (P<0.05) in LFs (170.92±88.29 ng/mL) compared with SFs (67.39±49.90ng/mL) and serum (73.48±34.63ng/mL). The largest and smallest length of the ovaries was 26.0±3.0 and 19.0mm ±2.0mm, respectively. The number of SFs (70.86±25.76) was greater (P<0.01) than LFs (6.54±5.26). The study concluded that LFs present greater levels of IGF-I when compared with SFs and blood, which is related to increased activity of the LFs and its differentiation to ovulation. In addition, ovaries of pre-pubertal gilts have a higher number of SFs compared to LFs. Therefore, our study demonstrated unique data regarding the physiological concentration of free IGF-I in ovarian follicles, that can be used in future research to evaluate the addition of this hormone in the in vitro production media of porcine embryos with the goal to improve the technique efficiency.

Acid-base balance of dairy cows and its relationship with alcoholic stability and mineral composition of milk

This study aimed to associate the occurrence of acid-base disorders with the alcoholic stability of milk from animals in the field, and to evaluate differences between the mineral composition of milk that was both stable and unstable in alcohol. The sample comprised 96 dairy cows, where the milk and blood of each corresponding animal was collected. The mineral composition of stable and unstable milk in alcohol was different and may be related to acid-base disturbances. The average amount of phosphate was lower in the milk that was unstable in alcohol, while potassium was greater. Frequency of the alcoholically unstable milk cases was higher in the cows with acid-base disturbances. Respiratory alkalosis was the disorder that was most observed.

Model-based estimation of liquid flows in the blast furnace hearth and taphole

This thesis presents a set of methods and models for estimation of iron and slag flows in the blast furnace hearth and taphole. The main focus was put on predicting taphole flow patterns and estimating the effects of various taphole conditions on the drainage behavior of the blast furnace hearth. All models were based on a general understanding of the typical tap cycle of an industrial blast furnace. Some of the models were evaluated on short-term process data from the reference furnace. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built and applied to simulate the complicated hearth flows and thus to predict the regions of the hearth exerted to erosion under various operating conditions. Key boundary variables of the CFD model were provided by a simplified drainage model based on the first principles. By examining the evolutions of liquid outflow rates measured from the furnace studied, the drainage model was improved to include the effects of taphole diameter and length. The estimated slag delays showed good agreement with the observed ones. The liquid flows in the taphole were further studied using two different models and the results of both models indicated that it is more likely that separated flow of iron and slag occurs in the taphole when the liquid outflow rates are comparable during tapping. The drainage process was simulated with an integrated model based on an overall balance analysis: The high in-furnace overpressure can compensate for the resistances induced by the liquid flows in the hearth and through the taphole. Finally, a recently developed multiphase CFD model including interfacial forces between immiscible liquids was developed and both the actual iron-slag system and a water-oil system in laboratory scale were simulated. The model was demonstrated to be a useful tool for simulating hearth flows for gaining understanding of the complex phenomena in the drainage of the blast furnace.

Fluid dynamic modelling and simulation of circulating fluidized bed reactors: importance of the interface turbulence transfer

The main objective of this work is to analyze the importance of the gas-solid interface transfer of the kinetic energy of the turbulent motion on the accuracy of prediction of the fluid dynamic of Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) reactors. CFB reactors are used in a variety of industrial applications related to combustion, incineration and catalytic cracking. In this work a two-dimensional fluid dynamic model for gas-particle flow has been used to compute the porosity, the pressure, and the velocity fields of both phases in 2-D axisymmetrical cylindrical co-ordinates. The fluid dynamic model is based on the two fluid model approach in which both phases are considered to be continuous and fully interpenetrating. CFB processes are essentially turbulent. The model of effective stress on each phase is that of a Newtonian fluid, where the effective gas viscosity was calculated from the standard k-epsilon turbulence model and the transport coefficients of the particulate phase were calculated from the kinetic theory of granular flow (KTGF). This work shows that the turbulence transfer between the phases is very important for a better representation of the fluid dynamics of CFB reactors, especially for systems with internal recirculation and high gradients of particle concentration. Two systems with different characteristics were analyzed. The results were compared with experimental data available in the literature. The results were obtained by using a computer code developed by the authors. The finite volume method with collocated grid, the hybrid interpolation scheme, the false time step strategy and SIMPLEC (Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure Linked Equations - Consistent) algorithm were used to obtain the numerical solution.

Modeling of the Fluid-Structure Interaction in Inelastic Piping Systems

In many engineering applications, compliant piping systems conveying liquids are subjected to inelastic deformations due to severe pressure surges such as plastic tubes in modern water supply transmission lines and metallic pipings in nuclear power plants. In these cases the design of such systems may require an adequate modeling of the interactions between the fluid dynamics and the inelastic structural pipe motions. The reliability of the prediction of fluid-pipe behavior depends mainly on the adequacy of the constitutive equations employed in the analysis. In this paper it is proposed a systematic and general approach to consistently incorporate different kinds of inelastic behaviors of the pipe material in a fluid-structure interaction analysis. The main feature of the constitutive equations considered in this work is that a very simple numerical technique can be used for solving the coupled equations describing the dynamics of the fluid and pipe wall. Numerical examples concerning the analysis of polyethylene and stainless steel pipe networks are presented to illustrate the versatility of the proposed approach.