Temporal Characterization of Ossification of the Crania in Australian Subadults: New standards for Age Estimation using Computed Tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of the ontogeny of cranial maturation, specifically: (1) the fusion timings of primary ossification centers in the basicranium; and (2) the temporal pattern of closure of the anterior fontanelle, to develop new population-specific age standards for medicolegal death investigation of Australian subadults. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating the potential of a contemporary forensic subadult Computed Tomography (CT) database of cranial scans and population data, to recalibrate existing standards for age estimation and quantify growth and development of Australian children. This research welcomes a study design applicable to all countries faced with paucity in skeletal repositories. Accurate assessment of age-at-death of skeletal remains represents a key element in forensic anthropology methodology. In Australian casework, age standards derived from American reference samples are applied in light of scarcity in documented Australian skeletal collections. Currently practitioners rely on antiquated standards, such as the Scheuer and Black1 compilation for age estimation, despite implications of secular trends and population variation. Skeletal maturation standards are population specific and should not be extrapolated from one population to another, while secular changes in skeletal dimensions and accelerated maturation underscore the importance of establishing modern standards to estimate age in modern subadults. Despite CT imaging becoming the gold standard for skeletal analysis in Australia, practitioners caution the application of forensic age standards derived from macroscopic inspection to a CT medium, suggesting a need for revised methodologies. Multi-slice CT scans of subadult crania and cervical vertebrae 1 and 2 were acquired from 350 Australian individuals (males: n=193, females: n=157) aged birth to 12 years. The CT database, projected at 920 individuals upon completion (January 2014), comprises thin-slice DICOM data (resolution: 0.5/0.3mm) of patients scanned since 2010 at major Brisbane Childrens Hospitals. DICOM datasets were subject to manual segmentation, followed by the construction of multi-planar and volume rendering cranial models, for subsequent scoring. The union of primary ossification centers of the occipital bone were scored as open, partially closed or completely closed; while the fontanelles, and vertebrae were scored in accordance with two stages. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate age at transition between union states for each center, and robust age parameters established using Bayesian statistics. In comparison to reported literature, closure of the fontanelles and contiguous sutures in Australian infants occur earlier than reported, with the anterior fontanelle transitioning from open to closed at 16.7±1.1 months. The metopic suture is closed prior to 10 weeks post-partum and completely obliterated by 6 months of age, independent of sex. Utilizing reverse engineering capabilities, an alternate method for infant age estimation based on quantification of fontanelle area and non-linear regression with variance component modeling will be presented. Closure models indicate that the greatest rate of change in anterior fontanelle area occurs prior to 5 months of age. This study complements the work of Scheuer and Black1, providing more specific age intervals for union and temporal maturity of each primary ossification center of the occipital bone. For example, dominant fusion of the sutura intra-occipitalis posterior occurs before 9 months of age, followed by persistence of a hyaline cartilage tongue posterior to the foramen magnum until 2.5 years; with obliteration at 2.9±0.1 years. Recalibrated age parameters for the atlas and axis are presented, with the anterior arch of the atlas appearing at 2.9 months in females and 6.3 months in males; while dentoneural, dentocentral and neurocentral junctions of the axis transitioned from non-union to union at 2.1±0.1 years in females and 3.7±0.1 years in males. These results are an exemplar of significant sexual dimorphism in maturation (p<0.05), with girls exhibiting union earlier than boys, justifying the need for segregated sex standards for age estimation. Studies such as this are imperative for providing updated standards for Australian forensic and pediatric practice and provide an insight into skeletal development of this population. During this presentation, the utility of novel regression models for age estimation of infants will be discussed, with emphasis on three-dimensional modeling capabilities of complex structures such as fontanelles, for the development of new age estimation methods.

Morphometric modelling of ageing in the human pubic symphysis : sexual dimorphism in an Australian population

Despite the prominent use of the pubic symphysis for age estimation in forensic anthropology, little has been documented regarding the quantitative morphological and micro-architectural changes of this surface. Specifically, utilising post-mortem computed tomography data from a large, contemporary Australian adult population, this study aimed to evaluate sexual dimorphism in the morphology and bone composition of the symphyseal surface; and temporal characterisation of the pubic symphysis in individuals of advancing age. The sample consisted of multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) scans of the pubic symphysis(slice thickness: 0.5 mm, overlap: 0.1 mm) of 200 individuals of Caucasian ancestry aged 15–70 years, obtained in 2011. Surface rendering reconstruction of the symphyseal surface was conducted in OsiriX1 (v.4.1) and quantitative analyses in Rapidform XOSTM and OsteomeasureTM. Morphometric variables including inter-pubic distance, surface area, circumference, maximum height and width of the symphyseal surface and micro-architectural assessment of cortical and trabecular bone compositions were quantified using novel automated engineering software capabilities. The major results of this study are correlated with the macroscopic ossification and degeneration pattern of the symphyseal surface, demonstrating significant age-related changes in the morphometric and bone tissue variables between 15 and 70 years. Regardless of sex, the overall dimensions of the symphyseal surface increased with age, coupled with a decrease in bone mass in the trabecular and cortical bone compartments. Significant differences between the ventral, dorsal and medial cortical surfaces were observed, which may be correlated to bone formation activity dependent on muscle activity and ligamentous attachments. Our study demonstrates significant sexual dimorphism at this site, with males exhibiting greater surface dimensions than females. These baseline results provide a detailed insight into the changes in the structure of the pubic symphysis with ageing and sexually dimorphic features associated with the cortical and trabecular bone profiles.

Simulation-based density estimation for time series using covariate data

This paper proposes a simulation-based density estimation technique for time series that exploits information found in covariate data. The method can be paired with a large range of parametric models used in time series estimation. We derive asymptotic properties of the estimator and illustrate attractive finite sample properties for a range of well-known econometric and financial applications.

Online estimation of Allan variance parameters

A new online method is presented for estimation of the angular randomwalk and rate randomwalk coefficients of inertial measurement unit gyros and accelerometers. In the online method, a state-space model is proposed, and recursive parameter estimators are proposed for quantities previously measured from offline data techniques such as the Allan variance method. The Allan variance method has large offline computational effort and data storage requirements. The technique proposed here requires no data storage and computational effort of approximately 100 calculations per data sample.

Adaptive estimation of HMM transition probabilities

This paper presents new schemes for recursive estimation of the state transition probabilities for hidden Markov models (HMM's) via extended least squares (ELS) and recursive state prediction error (RSPE) methods. Local convergence analysis for the proposed RSPE algorithm is shown using the ordinary differential equation (ODE) approach developed for the more familiar recursive output prediction error (RPE) methods. The presented scheme converges and is relatively well conditioned compared with the ...

On adaptive HMM state estimation

In this paper new online adaptive hidden Markov model (HMM) state estimation schemes are developed, based on extended least squares (ELS) concepts and recursive prediction error (RPE) methods. The best of the new schemes exploit the idempotent nature of Markov chains and work with a least squares prediction error index, using a posterior estimates, more suited to Markov models then traditionally used in identification of linear systems.

Reduced complexity on-line estimation of hidden Markov model parameters

In this paper we propose and study low complexity algorithms for on-line estimation of hidden Markov model (HMM) parameters. The estimates approach the true model parameters as the measurement noise approaches zero, but otherwise give improved estimates, albeit with bias. On a nite data set in the high noise case, the bias may not be signi cantly more severe than for a higher complexity asymptotically optimal scheme. Our algorithms require O(N3) calculations per time instant, where N is the number of states. Previous algorithms based on earlier hidden Markov model signal processing methods, including the expectation-maximumisation (EM) algorithm require O(N4) calculations per time instant.

Faster parameter estimation using risk-sensitive filters

In this paper, we propose a risk-sensitive approach to parameter estimation for hidden Markov models (HMMs). The parameter estimation approach considered exploits estimation of various functions of the state, based on model estimates. We propose certain practical suboptimal risk-sensitive filters to estimate the various functions of the state during transients, rather than optimal risk-neutral filters as in earlier studies. The estimates are asymptotically optimal, if asymptotically risk neutral, and can give significantly improved transient performance, which is a very desirable objective for certain engineering applications. To demonstrate the improvement in estimation simulation studies are presented that compare parameter estimation based on risk-sensitive filters with estimation based on risk-neutral filters.

On-line estimation of Allan variance parameters

A new online method is presented for estimation of the angular random walk and rate random walk coefficients of IMU (inertial measurement unit) gyros and accelerometers. The online method proposes a state space model and proposes parameter estimators for quantities previously measured from off-line data techniques such as the Allan variance graph. Allan variance graphs have large off-line computational effort and data storage requirements. The technique proposed here requires no data storage and computational effort of O(100) calculations per data sample.

Is retinal shape different in Asians and Caucasians? Estimation from peripheral refraction and peripheral eye length methods

Purpose:Race appears to be associated with myopiogenesis, with East Asians showing high myopia prevalence. Considering structural variations in the eye, it is possible that retinal shapes are different between races. The purpose of this study was to quantify and compare retinal shapes between racial groups using peripheral refraction (PR) and peripheral eye lengths (PEL). Methods:A Shin-Nippon SRW5000 autorefractor and a Haag-Streit Lenstar LS900 biometer measured PR and PEL, respectively, along horizontal (H) and vertical (V) fields out to ±35° in 5° steps in 29 Caucasian (CA), 16 South Asian (SA) and 23 East Asian (EA) young adults (spherical equivalent range +0.75D to –5.00D in all groups). Retinal vertex curvature Rv and asphericity Q were determined from two methods: a) PR (Dunne): The Gullstrand-Emsley eye was modified according to participant’s intraocular lengths and anterior cornea curvature. Ray-tracing was performed at each angle through the stop, altering cornea asphericity until peripheral astigmatism matched experimental measurements. Retinal curvature and hence retinal co-ordinate intersection with the chief ray were altered until sagittal refraction matched its measurement. b) PEL: Ray-tracing was performed at each angle through the anterior corneal centre of curvature of the Gullstrand-Emsley eye. Ignoring lens refraction, retinal co-ordinates relative to the fovea were determined from PEL and trigonometry. From sets of retinal co-ordinates, conic retinal shapes were fitted in terms of Rv and Q. Repeated-measures ANOVA were conducted on Rv and Q, and post hoc t-tests with Bonferroni correction were used to compare races. Results:In all racial groups both methods showed greater Rv for the horizontal than for the vertical meridian and greater Rv for myopes than emmetropes. Rv was greater in EA than in CA (P=0.02), with Rv for SA being intermediate and not significantly different from CA and EA. The PEL method provided larger Rv than the PR method: PEL: EA vs CA 87±13 vs 83±11 m-1 (H), 79±13 vs 72±14 m-1 (V); PR: EA vs CA 79±10 vs 67±10 m-1 (H), 71±17 vs 66±12 m-1 (V). Q did not vary significantly with race. Conclusions:Estimates of Rv, but not of Q, varied significantly with race. The greater Rv found in EA than in CA and the comparatively high prevalence rate of myopia in many Asian countries may be related.

A hybrid maximum power point tracking for partially shaded photovoltaic systems in the tropics

Partial shading and rapidly changing irradiance conditions significantly impact on the performance of photovoltaic (PV) systems. These impacts are particularly severe in tropical regions where the climatic conditions result in very large and rapid changes in irradiance. In this paper, a hybrid maximum power point (MPP) tracking (MPPT) technique for PV systems operating under partially shaded conditions witapid irradiance change is proposed. It combines a conventional MPPT and an artificial neural network (ANN)-based MPPT. A low cost method is proposed to predict the global MPP region when expensive irradiance sensors are not available or are not justifiable for cost reasons. It samples the operating point on the stairs of I–V curve and uses a combination of the measured current value at each stair to predict the global MPP region. The conventional MPPT is then used to search within the classified region to get the global MPP. The effectiveness of the proposed MPPT is demonstrated using both simulations and an experimental setup. Experimental comparisons with four existing MPPTs are performed. The results show that the proposed MPPT produces more energy than the other techniques and can effectively track the global MPP with a fast tracking speed under various shading patterns.

Using upper bounds on attainable discrimination to select discrete valued features

Selection of features that will permit accurate pattern classification is a difficult task. However, if a particular data set is represented by discrete valued features, it becomes possible to determine empirically the contribution that each feature makes to the discrimination between classes. This paper extends the discrimination bound method so that both the maximum and average discrimination expected on unseen test data can be estimated. These estimation techniques are the basis of a backwards elimination algorithm that can be use to rank features in order of their discriminative power. Two problems are used to demonstrate this feature selection process: classification of the Mushroom Database, and a real-world, pregnancy related medical risk prediction task - assessment of risk of perinatal death.

Estimating the mean critical gap

The estimation of the critical gap has been an issue since the 1970s, when gap acceptance was introduced to evaluate the capacity of unsignalized intersections. The critical gap is the shortest gap that a driver is assumed to accept. A driver’s critical gap cannot be measured directly and a number of techniques have been developed to estimate the mean critical gaps of a sample of drivers. This paper reviews the ability of the Maximum Likelihood technique and the Probability Equilibrium Method to predict the mean and standard deviation of the critical gap with a simulation of 100 drivers, repeated 100 times for each flow condition. The Maximum Likelihood method gave consistent and unbiased estimates of the mean critical gap. Whereas the probability equilibrium method had a significant bias that was dependent on the flow in the priority stream. Both methods were reasonably consistent, although the Maximum Likelihood Method was slightly better. If drivers are inconsistent, then again the Maximum Likelihood method is superior. A criticism levelled at the Maximum Likelihood method is that a distribution of the critical gap has to be assumed. It was shown that this does not significantly affect its ability to predict the mean and standard deviation of the critical gaps. Finally, the Maximum Likelihood method can predict reasonable estimates with observations for 25 to 30 drivers. A spreadsheet procedure for using the Maximum Likelihood method is provided in this paper. The PEM can be improved if the maximum rejected gap is used.