Quantitative market and sales forecast accuracy analysis

The main objective of this master’s thesis was to quantitatively study the reliability of market and sales forecasts of a certain company by measuring bias, precision and accuracy of these forecasts by comparing forecasts against actual values. Secondly, the differences of bias, precision and accuracy between markets were explained by various macroeconomic variables and market characteristics. Accuracy and precision of the forecasts seems to vary significantly depending on the market that is being forecasted, the variable that is being forecasted, the estimation period, the length of the estimated period, the forecast horizon and the granularity of the data. High inflation, low income level and high year-on-year market volatility seems to be related with higher annual market forecast uncertainty and high year-on-year sales volatility with higher sales forecast uncertainty. When quarterly market size is forecasted, correlation between macroeconomic variables and forecast errors reduces. Uncertainty of the sales forecasts cannot be explained with macroeconomic variables. Longer forecasts are more uncertain, shorter estimated period leads to higher uncertainty, and usually more recent market forecasts are less uncertain. Sales forecasts seem to be more uncertain than market forecasts, because they incorporate both market size and market share risks. When lead time is more than one year, forecast risk seems to grow as a function of root forecast horizon. When lead time is less than year, sequential error terms are typically correlated, and therefore forecast errors are trending or mean-reverting. The bias of forecasts seems to change in cycles, and therefore the future forecasts cannot be systematically adjusted with it. The MASE cannot be used to measure whether the forecast can anticipate year-on-year volatility. Instead, we constructed a new relative accuracy measure to cope with this particular situation.

Correlation between in vitro cytotoxicity and in vivo lethal activity in mice of epsilon toxin mutants from Clostridium perfringens

Epsilon toxin (Etx) from Clostridium perfringens is a pore-forming protein with a lethal effect on livestock, producing severe enterotoxemia characterized by general edema and neurological alterations. Site-specific mutations of the toxin are valuable tools to study the cellular and molecular mechanism of the toxin activity. In particular, mutants with paired cysteine substitutions that affect the membrane insertion domain behaved as dominant-negative inhibitors of toxin activity in MDCK cells. We produced similar mutants, together with a well-known non-toxic mutant (Etx-H106P), as green fluorescent protein (GFP) fusion proteins to perform in vivo studies in an acutely intoxicated mouse model. The mutant (GFP-Etx-I51C/A114C) had a lethal effect with generalized edema, and accumulated in the brain parenchyma due to its ability to cross the blood-brain barrier (BBB). In the renal system, this mutant had a cytotoxic effect on distal tubule epithelial cells. The other mutants studied (GFP-Etx-V56C/F118C and GFP-Etx-H106P) did not have a lethal effect or cross the BBB, and failed to induce a cytotoxic effect on renal epithelial cells. These data suggest a direct correlation between the lethal effect of the toxin, with its cytotoxic effect on the kidney distal tubule cells, and the ability to cross the BBB.

Time course of error detection and correction in humans: neurophysiological evidence.

Using event-related brain potentials, the time course of error detection and correction was studied in healthy human subjects. A feedforward model of error correction was used to predict the timing properties of the error and corrective movements. Analysis of the multichannel recordings focused on (1) the error-related negativity (ERN) seen immediately after errors in response- and stimulus-locked averages and (2) on the lateralized readiness potential (LRP) reflecting motor preparation. Comparison of the onset and time course of the ERN and LRP components showed that the signs of corrective activity preceded the ERN. Thus, error correction was implemented before or at least in parallel with the appearance of the ERN component. Also, the amplitude of the ERN component was increased for errors, followed by fast corrective movements. The results are compatible with recent views considering the ERN component as the output of an evaluative system engaged in monitoring motor conflict.

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement -SCR-, under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Error en el consentimiento en los contratos de SWAP

Cada cert temps hi ha assumptes d’alt interès social dins de la jurisdicció. En els últims anys, coincidint amb la crisi financera internacional, els assumptes relatius a contractes bancaris complexos, sobretot permutes financeres o swaps, han tingut una gran rellevància. En un context de crisi financera internacional, i també nacional, s'han estès el nombre de demandes dirigides contra bancs i entitats financeres. Són reclamacions en les quals se sol·licita la declaració de nul·litat dels citats contractes, principalment es basa en un error del consentiment, nul·litat que comporta la devolució de les quantitats invertides, de les rentabilitats esperades o de les penalitzacions aplicades davant la resolució anticipada d'us contractes pels clients defraudats en les seves expectatives. Les presents pàgines pretenen un estudi dels litigis sobre SWAPS, principalment dels “Interest Rate Swap”, identificar quins són els contractes bancaris complexes, quines són les normes de consentiment contractual que els regeixen. Respecte dels primers, cal destacar que l'elevat nombre de casos plantejats davant els nostres tribunals no es tradueix en una casuística tan àmplia com seria imaginable. La gran majoria versa sobre les peticions de nul·litat del contracte (total o parcial) realitzades pels clients, al moment en què l'Euribor va descendir, i que allò que molts havien contractat com un segur de cobertura enfront dels elevats tipus d'interès que havien de pagar per les seves hipoteques, veien com conforme als pactes en el contracte, havien de satisfer al seu contrapart (una entitat de crèdit) una liquidació.

Bias and standard error for social reciprocity measurements

The directional consistency and skew-symmetry statistics have been proposed as global measurements of social reciprocity. Although both measures can be useful for quantifying social reciprocity, researchers need to know whether these estimators are biased in order to assess descriptive results properly. That is, if estimators are biased, researchers should compare actual values with expected values under the specified null hypothesis. Furthermore, standard errors are needed to enable suitable assessment of discrepancies between actual and expected values. This paper aims to derive some exact and approximate expressions in order to obtain bias and standard error values for both estimators for round-robin designs, although the results can also be extended to other reciprocal designs.

New approximation to the third-order density : application to the calculation of correlated multicenter indices

In this work we present the formulas for the calculation of exact three-center electron sharing indices (3c-ESI) and introduce two new approximate expressions for correlated wave functions. The 3c-ESI uses the third-order density, the diagonal of the third-order reduced density matrix, but the approximations suggested in this work only involve natural orbitals and occupancies. In addition, the first calculations of 3c-ESI using Valdemoro's, Nakatsuji's and Mazziotti's approximation for the third-order reduced density matrix are also presented for comparison. Our results on a test set of molecules, including 32 3c-ESI values, prove that the new approximation based on the cubic root of natural occupancies performs the best, yielding absolute errors below 0.07 and an average absolute error of 0.015. Furthemore, this approximation seems to be rather insensitive to the amount of electron correlation present in the system. This newly developed methodology provides a computational inexpensive method to calculate 3c-ESI from correlated wave functions and opens new avenues to approximate high-order reduced density matrices in other contexts, such as the contracted Schrödinger equation and the anti-Hermitian contracted Schrödinger equation

GPRS/EDGE Session Tracing and Analysis in Abis and AGPRS Interfaces

Efficient problem solving in cellular networks is important when enhancing the network performance and liability. Analysis of calls and packet switched sessions in protocol level between the network elements is an important part of this process. They can provide very detailed information about error situations which otherwise would be difficult to recognise. In this thesis we seek solutions for monitoring GPRS/EDGE sessions in two specific interfaces simultaneously in such manner that all information important to the users will be provided in easily understandable form. This thesis focuses on Abis and AGPRS interfaces of GSM radio network and introduces a solution for managing the correlation between these interfaces by using signalling messages and common parameters as linking elements. ~: Finally this thesis presents an implementation of GPRS/EDGE session monitoring application for Abis and AGPRS interfaces and evaluates its benefits to the end users. Application is implemented as a part of Windows based 3G/GSM network analyser.

Correlation of anti-inflammatory activity with phenolic content in the leaves of syzygium cumini (l.) skeels (myrtaceae)

Phenolic contents of extracts of Syzygium cumini leaves, collected monthly over a one-year period, were quantitatively determined by the modified Folin-Ciocalteau method. Extracts and tannin-free fractions were assayed by their potential to inhibit mouse paw edema induced by C48/80. HPLC showed high molecular weight phenolic species and flavonoids in the active extracts and fractions. The highest total phenolic content corresponded to the most potent degree of inhibition and the flavonoids were supposed to be the main species responsible for the activity, given that the flavonoid-enriched ethyl-acetate fraction maintained its effect down to a dose of 0.01 mg/kg in a dose-response manner.

Entrevista con Manuel Villegas sobre 'El error de Prometeo. Psico(pato)logía del desarrollo moral'

Entrevista con Manuel Villegas

Desenvolupament d'un sistema de transferència de software per una placa entrenadora

El departament d’electrònica i telecomunicacions de la Universitat de Vic ha dissenyat un conjunt de plaques entrenadores amb finalitat educativa. Perquè els alumnes puguin utilitzar aquestes plaques com a eina d’estudi, és necessari disposar d’un sistema de gravació econòmic i còmode. La major part dels programadors, en aquest cas, no compleixen amb aquests requeriments. L’objectiu d’aquest projecte és dissenyar un sistema de programació que utilitzi la comunicació sèrie i que no requereixi d'un hardware ni software específics. D’aquesta manera, obtenim una placa autònoma i un programador gratuït, de muntatge ràpid i simple d’utilitzar. El sistema de gravació dissenyat s’ha dividit en tres blocs. Per una banda, un programa que anomenem “programador” encarregat de transferir codi de programa des de l’ordinador al microcontrolador de la placa entrenadora. Per altra banda, un programa anomenat “bootloader”, situat al microcontrolador, permet rebre aquest codi de programa i emmagatzemar-lo a les direccions de memòria de programa corresponents. Com a tercer bloc, s’implementa un protocol de comunicació i un sistema de control d’errors per tal d’assegurar una correcta comunicació entre el “programador” i el “bootloader”. Els objectius d’aquest projecte s’han complert i per les proves realitzades, el sistema de programació ha funcionat correctament.

Estatística aplicada à química: dez dúvidas comuns

Ten common doubts of chemistry students and professionals about their statistical applications are discussed. The use of the N-1 denominator instead of N is described for the standard deviation. The statistical meaning of the denominators of the root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) and root mean square error of validation (RMSEV) are given for researchers using multivariate calibration methods. The reason why scientists and engineers use the average instead of the median is explained. Several problematic aspects about regression and correlation are treated. The popular use of triplicate experiments in teaching and research laboratories is seen to have its origin in statistical confidence intervals. Nonparametric statistics and bootstrapping methods round out the discussion.

THE APPLICATION OF AUTOMATED CORRELATION OPTIMIZED WARPING TO THE QUALITY EVALUATION OF Radix Puerariae thomsonii: CORRECTING RETENTION TIME SHIFT IN THE CHROMATOGRAPHIC FINGERPRINTS

The application of automated correlation optimized warping (ACOW) to the correction of retention time shift in the chromatographic fingerprints of Radix Puerariae thomsonii (RPT) was investigated. Twenty-seven samples were extracted from 9 batches of RPT products. The fingerprints of the 27 samples were established by the HPLC method. Because there is a retention time shift in the established fingerprints, the quality of these samples cannot be correctly evaluated by using similarity estimation and principal component analysis (PCA). Thus, the ACOW method was used to align these fingerprints. In the ACOW procedure, the warping parameters, which have a significant influence on the alignment result, were optimized by an automated algorithm. After correcting the retention time shift, the quality of these RPT samples was correctly evaluated by similarity estimation and PCA. It is demonstrated that ACOW is a practical method for aligning the chromatographic fingerprints of RPT. The combination of ACOW, similarity estimation, and PCA is shown to be a promising method for evaluating the quality of Traditional Chinese Medicine.