856 resultados para Energy Supply-Demand Modeling.


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[Pt. 1]: hearing held July 27, 1979; pt. 2: hearings before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, Feb. 25 and 26, 1980.

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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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Background: In early 2001, Australia experienced a sudden, dramatic and;sustained decrease in heroin availability that was accompanied by sharp increases in price and decreases in street level purity-the so-called heroin shortage. These unprecedented changes occurred in a context of widespread treatment availability, which made it possible for the first time to examine the impact of a sharp reduction in heroin supply in New South Wales (NSW) on entry to and adherence with treatment for heroin dependence. Given the evidence of drug substitution by some users. the current paper also examines the effects of the shortage on entry to treatment for other forms of drug dependence. Methods: Interrupted time-series analysis of the number of persons entering opioid pharmacotherapy and other treatment modalities in NSW for heroin dependence and for the treatment for other types of drug dependence. Findings: The heroin shortage was associated with a reduction in the number of younger persons entering opioid pharmacotherapy. There was a dramatic decrease in the number of persons entering heroin withdrawal or assessment only treatment episodes. There appear to have been small improvements in adherence to and retention in heroin treatment after the reduction in heroin supply. Relatively small increases were observed in numbers being treated for cocaine dependence. Conclusions: In the context of good treatment provision, a reduction in heroin supply appeared to produce modest improvements in intermediate outcomes. Supply and demand reduction measures, when both are implemented successfully, may be complementary. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This thesis is a study of three techniques to improve performance of some standard fore-casting models, application to the energy demand and prices. We focus on forecasting demand and price one-day ahead. First, the wavelet transform was used as a pre-processing procedure with two approaches: multicomponent-forecasts and direct-forecasts. We have empirically compared these approaches and found that the former consistently outperformed the latter. Second, adaptive models were introduced to continuously update model parameters in the testing period by combining ?lters with standard forecasting methods. Among these adaptive models, the adaptive LR-GARCH model was proposed for the fi?rst time in the thesis. Third, with regard to noise distributions of the dependent variables in the forecasting models, we used either Gaussian or Student-t distributions. This thesis proposed a novel algorithm to infer parameters of Student-t noise models. The method is an extension of earlier work for models that are linear in parameters to the non-linear multilayer perceptron. Therefore, the proposed method broadens the range of models that can use a Student-t noise distribution. Because these techniques cannot stand alone, they must be combined with prediction models to improve their performance. We combined these techniques with some standard forecasting models: multilayer perceptron, radial basis functions, linear regression, and linear regression with GARCH. These techniques and forecasting models were applied to two datasets from the UK energy markets: daily electricity demand (which is stationary) and gas forward prices (non-stationary). The results showed that these techniques provided good improvement to prediction performance.

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Concern has been expressed in the professional literature - borne out by professional experience and observation - that the supply and demand relationship existing between the 13 English and Welsh Library and Information Studies (LIS) Schools (as providers of `First Professional' staff) and the Higher Education Library and Information Services (HE LIS) sector of England and Wales (as one group of employers of such staff) is unsatisfactory and needs attention. An appropriate methodology to investigate this problem was devised. A basic content analysis of Schools' curricular and recruitment material intended for public consumption was undertaken to establish an overview of the LIS initial professional education system in England and Wales, and to identify and analyse any covert messages imparted to readers. This was followed by a mix of Main Questionnaires and Semi-Structured Interviews with appropriate populations. The investigation revealed some serious areas of dissatisfaction by the HE LIS Chiefs with the role and function of the Schools. Considerable divergence of views emerged on the state of the working relationships between the two sectors and on the Schools' successes in meeting the needs of the HE LIS sector and on CPD provision. There were, however, areas of substantial and consistent agreement between the two sectors. The main implications of the findings were that those areas encompassing divergence of views were worrying and needed addressing by both sides. Possible ways forward included recommendations on improving the image of the profession purveyed by the Schools; the forming of closer and more effective inter-sectoral relationships; recognising fully the importance of `practicum' and increasing and sustaining the network of `practicum' providers.

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The Project arose during a period in which the World was still coming to terms with the effects and implications of the so called 'energy crisis' of 1973/74. Serck Heat Transfer is a manufacturer of heat exchangers which transfer heat between fluids of various sorts. As such the company felt that past and possible future changes in the energy situation could have an impact upon the demand for its products. The thesis represents the first attempt to examine the impact of changes in the energy situation (a major economic variable) on the long term demand for heat exchangers. The scope of the work was limited to the United Kingdom, this being the largest single market for Serek's products. The thesis analyses industrial heat exchanger markets and identifies those trends which are related to both the changing energy situation and the usage of heat exchangers. These trends have been interpreted In terms of projected values of heat exchanger demand. The projections cover the period 197S to the year 2000. Also examined in the thesis is the future energy situation both internationally and nationally and it is found that in the long term there will be increasing pressure on consumers to conserve energy through rising real prices. The possibility of a connection between energy consumption and heat exchanger demand is investigated and no significant correlation found. This appears to be because there are a number of determinants of demand besides energy related factors and also there is a wide diversity of individual markets for heat exchangers. Conclusions are that in all markets, bar one, the changing energy situation should lead to a higher level of heat exchanger demand than would otherwise be the case had the energy situation not changed. It is also pointed out that it is misleading to look at changes in one influence on the demand for a product and ignore others.

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This thesis investigates the modelling of drying processes for the promotion of market-led Demand Side Management (DSM) as applied to the UK Public Electricity Suppliers. A review of DSM in the electricity supply industry is provided, together with a discussion of the relevant drivers supporting market-led DSM and energy services (ES). The potential opportunities for ES in a fully deregulated energy market are outlined. It is suggested that targeted industrial sector energy efficiency schemes offer significant opportunity for long term customer and supplier benefit. On a process level, industrial drying is highlighted as offering significant scope for the application of energy services. Drying is an energy-intensive process used widely throughout industry. The results of an energy survey suggest that 17.7 per cent of total UK industrial energy use derives from drying processes. Comparison with published work indicates that energy use for drying shows an increasing trend against a background of reducing overall industrial energy use. Airless drying is highlighted as offering potential energy saving and production benefits to industry. To this end, a comprehensive review of the novel airless drying technology and its background theory is made. Advantages and disadvantages of airless operation are defined and the limited market penetration of airless drying is identified, as are the key opportunities for energy saving. Limited literature has been found which details the modelling of energy use for airless drying. A review of drying theory and previous modelling work is made in an attempt to model energy consumption for drying processes. The history of drying models is presented as well as a discussion of the different approaches taken and their relative merits. The viability of deriving energy use from empirical drying data is examined. Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) are successfully applied to the modelling of drying rates for 3 drying technologies, namely convective air, heat pump and airless drying. The ANFIS systems are then integrated into a novel energy services model for the prediction of relative drying times, energy cost and atmospheric carbon dioxide emission levels. The author believes that this work constitutes the first to use fuzzy systems for the modelling of drying performance as an energy services approach to DSM. To gain an insight into the 'real world' use of energy for drying, this thesis presents a unique first-order energy audit of every ceramic sanitaryware manufacturing site in the UK. Previously unknown patterns of energy use are highlighted. Supplementary comments on the timing and use of drying systems are also made. The limitations of such large scope energy surveys are discussed.

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The work presented in this thesis concerns itself with the application of Demand Side Management (DSM) by industrial subsector as applied to the UK electricity industry. A review of the origins of DSM in the US and the relevance of experience gained to the UK electricity industry is made. Reviews are also made of the current status of the UK electricity industry, the regulatory system, and the potential role of DSM within the prevalent industry environment. A financial appraisal of DSM in respect of the distribution business of a Regional Electricity Company (REC) is also made. This financial appraisal highlights the economic viability of DSM within the context of the current UK electricity industry. The background of the work presented above is then followed by the construction of a framework detailing the necessary requirements for expanding the commercial role of DSM to encompass benefits for the supply business of a REC. The derived framework is then applied, in part, to the UK ceramics manufacturing industry, and in full to the UK sanitaryware manufacturing industry. The application of the framework to the UK sanitaryware manufacturing industry has required the undertaking of a unique first-order energy audit of every such manufacturing site in the UK. As such the audit has revealed previously unknown data on the timings and magnitude of electricity demand and consumption attributable to end-use manufacturing technologies and processes. The audit also served to reveal the disparity in the attitudes toward energy services, and thus by implication towards DSM, of manufacturers within the same Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code. In response to this, attempt is made to identify the underlying drivers which could cause this variation in attitude. A novel approach to the market segmentation of the companies within the UK ceramics manufacturing sector has been utilised to classify these companies in terms of their likelihood to participate in DSM programmes through the derived Energy Services approach. The market segmentation technique, although requiring further development to progress from a research based concept, highlights the necessity to look beyond the purely energy based needs of manufacturing industries when considering the utilisation of the Energy Services approach to facilitate DSM programs.

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To fully utilize second-life batteries on the grid system, a hybrid battery scheme needs to be considered for several reasons: the uncertainty over using a single source supply chain for second-life batteries, the differences in evolving battery chemistry and battery configuration by different suppliers to strive for greater power levels, and the uncertainty of degradation within a second-life battery. Therefore, these hybrid battery systems could have widely different module voltage, capacity, and initial state of charge and state of health. In order to suitably integrate and control these widely different batteries, a suitable multimodular converter topology and an associated control structure are required. This paper addresses these issues proposing a modular boost-multilevel buck converter based topology to integrate these hybrid second-life batteries to a grid-tie inverter. Thereafter, a suitable module-based distributed control architecture is introduced to independently utilize each converter module according to its characteristics. The proposed converter and control architecture are found to be flexible enough to integrate widely different batteries to an inverter dc link. Modeling, analysis, and experimental validation are performed on a single-phase modular hybrid battery energy storage system prototype to understand the operation of the control strategy with different hybrid battery configurations.