A two-level analysis of the determinants of direct democratic choices in European, immigration and foreign policy in Switzerland

This article employs a unique data set - covering 25 popular votes on foreign, European and immigration/asylum policy held between 1992 and 2006 in Switzerland - in order to examine the conditional impact of context upon utilitarian, cultural, political and cognitive determinants of individual attitudes toward international openness. Our results reveal clear patterns of cross-level interactions between individual determinants and the project-related context of the vote. Thus, although party cues and political competence have a strong impact on individuals' support for international openness, this impact is substantially mediated by the type of coalition that is operating within the party elite. Similarly, subjective utilitarian and cultural considerations influence the voters' decision in interaction with the content of the proposal submitted to the voters as well as with the framing of the voting campaign.

Social and temporal organization in an ant colony

Ant colonies are known for their complex and efficient social organization that com-pletely lacks hierarchical structure. However, due to methodological difficulties in follow¬ing all ants of a colony, it was until now impossible to investigate the social and temporal organization of colonies. We developed a tracking system that allows tracking the posi¬tions and orientations of several hundred individually labeled ants continuously, providing for the first time quantitative long term data on all individuals of a colony. These data permit reconstructing trajectories, activity patterns and social networks of all ants in a colony and enable us to investigate ant behavior quantitatively in previously unpreceded ways. By analyzing the spatial positions and social interactions of all ants in six colonies for 41 days we show that ant colonies are organized in groups of nurses, nest patrollers and foragers. Workers of each group were highly interconnected and occupied similar spa¬tial locations in the nest. Groups strongly segregated spatially, and were characterized by unique behavioral signatures. Nurses spent most of their time on the brood. Nest patrollers frequently visited the rubbish pile, and foragers frequently visited the forag¬ing arena. In addition nurses were on average younger than nest patrollers who were, in turn, younger than foragers. We further show that workers had a preferred behav¬ioral trajectory and moved from nursing to nest patrolling, and from nest patrolling to foraging. By analyzing the activity patterns of all ants we show that only a third of all workers in a colony exhibit circadian rhythms and that these rhythms shortened by on av¬erage 42 minutes in constant darkness, thereby demonstrating the presence of a functional endogenous clock. Most rhythmic workers were foragers suggesting that rhythmicity is tightly associated with task. Nurses and nest patrollers were arrhythmic which most likely reflects plasticity of the circadian clock, as isolated workers in many species exhibit circadian rhythmicity. Altogether our results emphasize that ant colonies, despite their chaotic appearance, repose on a strong underlying social and temporal organization. - Les colonies de fourmis sont connues pour leur organisation sociale complexe et effi-cace, charactérisée par un manque absolu de structure hiérarchique. Cependant, puisqu'il est techniquement très difficile de suivre toutes les fourmis d'une colonie, il a été jusqu'à maintenant impossible d'étudier l'organisation sociale et temporelle des colonies de four-mis. Nous avons développé un système qui permet d'extraire en temps réel à partir d'images vidéo les positions et orientations de plusieurs centaines de fourmis marquées individuellement. Nous avons pu ainsi générer pour la première fois des données quanti-tatives et longitudinales relatives à des fourmis appartenant à une colonie. Ces données nous ont permis de reconstruire la trajectoire et l'activité de chaque fourmi ainsi que ses réseaux sociaux. Ceci nous a permis d'étudier de manière exhaustive et objective le com-portement de tous les individus d'une colonie. En analysant les données spatiales et les interactions sociales de toutes les fourmis de six colonies qui ont été filmées pendant 41 jours, nous montrons que les fourmis d'une même colonie se répartissent en trois groupes: nourrices, patrouilleuses et approvisionneuses. Les fourmis d'un même groupe interagis-sent fréquemment et occupent le même espace à l'intérieur du nid. L'espace propre à un groupe se recoupe très peu avec celui des autres. Chaque groupe est caractérisé par un comportement typique. Les nourrices s'affairent surtout autour du couvain. Les pa-trouilleuses font de fréquents déplacements vers le tas d'ordures, et les approvisionneuses sortent souvent du nid. Les nourrices sont en moyenne plus jeunes que les patrouilleuses qui, à leur tour, sont plus jeunes que les approvisionneuses. De plus, nous montrons que les ouvrières changent de tâche au cours de leur vie, passant de nourrice à patrouilleuse puis à approvisionneuse. En analysant l'activité de chaque fourmi, nous montrons que seulement un tiers des ouvrières d'une colonie présente des rythmes circadiens et que ces rythmes diminuent en moyenne de 42 minutes lorsqu'il y a obscurité constante, ce qui démontre ainsi la présence d'une horloge endogène. De plus, la plupart des approvi¬sionneuses ont une activité rythmique alors que les nourrices et patrouilleuses présentent une activité arythmique, ce qui suggère que la rythmicité est étroitement associée à la tâche. L'arythmie des nourrices et patrouilleuses repose probablement sur une plasticité de l'horloge endogène car des ouvrières de nombreuses espèces font preuve d'une ryth¬micité circadienne lorsqu'elles sont isolées de la colonie. Dans l'ensemble nos résultats révèlent qu'une colonie de fourmis se fonde sur une solide organisation sociale et tem¬porelle malgré son apparence chaotique.

Information sharing and social network dynamics : a coevolutionary approach

The capacity to interact socially and share information underlies the success of many animal species, humans included. Researchers of many fields have emphasized the evo¬lutionary significance of how patterns of connections between individuals, or the social networks, and learning abilities affect the information obtained by animal societies. To date, studies have focused on the dynamics either of social networks, or of the spread of information. The present work aims to study them together. We make use of mathematical and computational models to study the dynamics of networks, where social learning and information sharing affect the structure of the population the individuals belong to. The number and strength of the relationships between individuals, in turn, impact the accessibility and the diffusion of the shared information. Moreover, we inves¬tigate how different strategies in the evaluation and choice of interacting partners impact the processes of knowledge acquisition and social structure rearrangement. First, we look at how different evaluations of social interactions affect the availability of the information and the network topology. We compare a first case, where individuals evaluate social exchanges by the amount of information that can be shared by the partner, with a second case, where they evaluate interactions by considering their partners' social status. We show that, even if both strategies take into account the knowledge endowments of the partners, they have very different effects on the system. In particular, we find that the first case generally enables individuals to accumulate higher amounts of information, thanks to the more efficient patterns of social connections they are able to build. Then, we study the effects that homophily, or the tendency to interact with similar partners, has on knowledge accumulation and social structure. We compare the case where individuals who know the same information are more likely to learn socially from each other, to the opposite case, where individuals who know different information are instead more likely to learn socially from each other. We find that it is not trivial to claim which strategy is better than the other. Depending on the possibility of forgetting information, the way new social partners can be chosen, and the population size, we delineate the conditions for which each strategy allows accumulating more information, or in a faster way For these conditions, we also discuss the topological characteristics of the resulting social structure, relating them to the information dynamics outcome. In conclusion, this work paves the road for modeling the joint dynamics of the spread of information among individuals and their social interactions. It also provides a formal framework to study jointly the effects of different strategies in the choice of partners on social structure, and how they favor the accumulation of knowledge in the population. - La capacité d'interagir socialement et de partager des informations est à la base de la réussite de nombreuses espèces animales, y compris les humains. Les chercheurs de nombreux domaines ont souligné l'importance évolutive de la façon dont les modes de connexions entre individus, ou réseaux sociaux et les capacités d'apprentissage affectent les informations obtenues par les sociétés animales. À ce jour, les études se sont concentrées sur la dynamique soit des réseaux sociaux, soit de la diffusion de l'information. Le présent travail a pour but de les étudier ensemble. Nous utilisons des modèles mathématiques et informatiques pour étudier la dynamique des réseaux, où l'apprentissage social et le partage d'information affectent la structure de la population à laquelle les individus appartiennent. Le nombre et la solidité des relations entre les individus ont à leurs tours un impact sur l'accessibilité et la diffusion de l'informa¬tion partagée. Par ailleurs, nous étudions comment les différentes stratégies d'évaluation et de choix des partenaires d'interaction ont une incidence sur les processus d'acquisition des connaissances ainsi que le réarrangement de la structure sociale. Tout d'abord, nous examinons comment des évaluations différentes des interactions sociales influent sur la disponibilité de l'information ainsi que sur la topologie du réseau. Nous comparons un premier cas, où les individus évaluent les échanges sociaux par la quantité d'information qui peut être partagée par le partenaire, avec un second cas, où ils évaluent les interactions en tenant compte du statut social de leurs partenaires. Nous montrons que, même si les deux stratégies prennent en compte le montant de connaissances des partenaires, elles ont des effets très différents sur le système. En particulier, nous constatons que le premier cas permet généralement aux individus d'accumuler de plus grandes quantités d'information, grâce à des modèles de connexions sociales plus efficaces qu'ils sont capables de construire. Ensuite, nous étudions les effets que l'homophilie, ou la tendance à interagir avec des partenaires similaires, a sur l'accumulation des connaissances et la structure sociale. Nous comparons le cas où des personnes qui connaissent les mêmes informations sont plus sus¬ceptibles d'apprendre socialement l'une de l'autre, au cas où les individus qui connaissent des informations différentes sont au contraire plus susceptibles d'apprendre socialement l'un de l'autre. Nous constatons qu'il n'est pas trivial de déterminer quelle stratégie est meilleure que l'autre. En fonction de la possibilité d'oublier l'information, la façon dont les nouveaux partenaires sociaux peuvent être choisis, et la taille de la population, nous déterminons les conditions pour lesquelles chaque stratégie permet d'accumuler plus d'in¬formations, ou d'une manière plus rapide. Pour ces conditions, nous discutons également les caractéristiques topologiques de la structure sociale qui en résulte, les reliant au résultat de la dynamique de l'information. En conclusion, ce travail ouvre la route pour la modélisation de la dynamique conjointe de la diffusion de l'information entre les individus et leurs interactions sociales. Il fournit également un cadre formel pour étudier conjointement les effets de différentes stratégies de choix des partenaires sur la structure sociale et comment elles favorisent l'accumulation de connaissances dans la population.

El voluntariat social i la participació comunitària : la situació actual i les perspectives de futur al voltreganès

Aquest Treball de Final de Grau d’Educació Social pretén aprofundir i reflexionar al voltant dels conceptes de desenvolupament comunitari, participació i voluntariat social, sobretot en la seva dimensió pràctica. Partint d’aquest marc teòric, s’ha portat a terme una anàlisi de la realitat social i una diagnosi de necessitats socials del Voltreganès, és a dir, de la comunitat que formen els municipis de les Masies de Voltregà i Sant Hipòlit de Voltregà. A partir dels resultats, i la interpretació de les dades extretes de les entrevistes, realitzades a diferents professionals vinculats amb l’àmbit social i d’atenció a les persones, s’ha justificat la necessitat i interès d’un projecte de voluntariat, per poder donar resposta a les necessitats emergents de la població. En la part final del treball presento l’àmbit i les línies principals d’aquest projecte.

Candidat à l'échec scolaire incompris et ignoré : l'enfant de migrants = Misunderstood and ignored candidate to the school failure: The child of migrants

Immigration, intégration, précarité, échec scolaire, ignorance du français, délinquance sont des thèmes qui animent régulièrement les débats publics, médiatiques et politiques. Bien que les migrations ont toujours fait partie de l'histoire humaine, elles sont souvent décrites comme un trouble aux identités nationales, elles-mêmes mises à mal par la mondialisation. Cependant, les mécanismes sous-tendant les difficultés rencontrées par certains enfants de migrants demeurent bien moins débattus et considérés que leurs conséquences bruyantes et visibles. Après une réflexion sur l'impact de la migration elle-même sur le sujet et un bref aperçu de l'ethnopsychiatrie, nous allons décrire les difficultés que peut rencontrer l'enfant de migrants, leurs origines et leurs conséquences. Nous nous intéresserons ensuite à la manière dont notre société, nos institutions en tiennent compte ou pas. Nous terminerons notre propos par la mise en relief des besoins thérapeutiques et éducatifs spéciaux de ces enfants et la manière dont ceux-ci sont comblés (ou non). Immigration, social integration, precariousness, language barrier, delinquency are constantly stimulating public, political and media debate. Migrations always were part of the human history but they are often described like a disorder of the national identities, themselves put at evil by globalization. However, the origin of the difficulties that certain children of migrants encounter is often overlooked. Only their disturbing implications are frequently studied. After a brief comment on the impact of the migration and the ethnopsychiatry, we will outline the difficulties sometimes faced by the children of migrants, their origins and consequences. Then we will describe how the society and the institutions take them in account (or not). We finally will delineate the specific needs of those children and how they are meeting (or not).

Speed-cohesion trade-offs in collective decision making in ants and the concept of precision in animal behaviour

In decision making, speed-accuracy trade-offs are well known and often inevitable because accuracy depends on being well informed and gathering information takes time. However, trade-offs between speed and cohesion, that is the degree to which a group remains together as a single entity, as a result of their decision making, have been comparatively neglected. We combine theory and experimentation to show that in decision-making systems, speed-cohesion trade-offs are a natural complement to speed-accuracy trade-offs and are therefore of general importance. We then analyse the decision performance of 32 rock ant, Temnothorax albipennis, colonies in experiments in which accuracy of collective decision making was held constant, but time urgency varied. These experiments reveal for the first time an adaptive speed-cohesion trade-off in collective decision making and how this is achieved. In accord with different time constraints, colonies can decide quickly, at the cost of social unity, or they can decide slowly with much greater cohesion. We discuss the similarity between cohesion and the term precision as used in statistics and engineering. This emphasizes the generality of speed versus cohesion/precision trade-offs in decision making and decision implementation in other fields within animal behaviour such as sexually selected motor displays and even certain aspects of birdsong. We also suggest that speed versus precision trade-offs may occur when individuals within a group need to synchronize their activity, and in collective navigation, cooperative hunting and in certain escape behaviours.

Beyond the silence : institutional racism, social welfare and swiss citizenship

Cette thèse doctorale étudie le rôle de la citoyenneté Suisse et le modèle libérale de l'Etat social dans la production du racisme institutionnel au sein des services sociaux en Suisse. Cette thèse pose la question comment le régime de la citoyenneté Suisse rend possible et contraint les travailleurs sociaux à racialiser et discriminer leur clients avec des différences culturelles alors que les normes de l'aide sociale (normes de CSIAS) ne prévoient pas des traitements différentialistes selon la culture ou l'origine. Le modèle théorique du racisme institutionnel développé se passe sur une approche néo- institutionaliste et des ethnie and racial studies, prenant en compte le niveau individuel, collectif et institutionnel. En incluant ces deux approches, on dépasse le déterminisme des structuralistes dans les études sur le racisme institutionnel. Cette recherche qualitative montre que les travailleurs sociaux utilisent les ressources de la citoyenneté Suisse, de l'Etat social Suisse et leur expériences personnelles quand ils interagissent avec des clients. En plus, cette thèse démontre que le workfare logique en combinaison avec l'idée de l'assimilation culturelle rend possible la production d'un discours sur la nécessité de mériter d'être un membre de la communauté nationale et d'accéder à l'aide sociale. Cette compréhension néo-libérale de la citoyenneté renforce et légitime les travailleurs sociaux de racialiser et pratiquer la discrimination à l'égard de leurs clients et les rend incapable de développer une réflexivité critique. Toutefois, cette thèse montre également que les travailleurs sociaux produisent du travail social interculturel s'ils ont pu développer une telle réflexivité critique dans les institutions de l'aide sociale qui mettent en avant une conception "individuelle" de l'aide sociale.-Cette thèse vise à aller au-delà du silence qui constitue les débats publiques et la recherche sur le racisme au sein des institutions publiques en Suisse. - This thesis questions the role of the Swiss citizenship regime and the Swiss liberal social welfare model in the production of institutional racism in social services in Switzerland. Considering the absence of intercultural formal guidelines in the norms of social welfare (SKOS norms), this research investigates how the Swiss citizenship regime constrains and enables social workers to racialise and discriminate against their clients with cultural differences. This thesis develops a model of institutional racism, taking into account ethnic and racial studies and a neo-institutionalist approach on institutions, addressing the individual, collective and institutional level. In this framework, this thesis allows to overcome the structuralist determinism in the studies on institutional racism. Based on a qualitative inquiry, this research shows that social workers use the resources from the Swiss citizenship regime, social welfare model and their personal experiences when they interact with their clients. This study also shows that the workfare logic in combination with the idea of cultural assimilation enables to produce a discourse on deserving social welfare and earning membership to the national community. This neo-liberal citizenship understanding reinforces and legitimises social workers to racialise and discriminate against their clients and hinders them to develop critical reflexivity. However, this thesis also shows that social workers are able to produce intercultural social work when they could develop such a reflexivity in social services with an "individual" social welfare conceptions. This thesis aims to go beyond a persisting silence regarding public debates and research on racism in public institutions in Switzerland.

Early childhood caries in Switzerland: a marker of social inequalities.

BACKGROUND: Early childhood caries (ECC) is a marker of social inequalities worldwide because disadvantaged children are more likely to develop caries than their peers. This study aimed to define the ECC prevalence among children living in French-speaking Switzerland, where data on this topic were scarce, and to assess whether ECC was an early marker of social inequalities in this country. METHODS: The study took place between 2010 and 2012 in the primary care facility of Lausanne Children's Hospital. We clinically screened 856 children from 36 to 71 months old for ECC, and their caregivers (parents or legal guardians) filled in a questionnaire including items on socioeconomic background (education, occupation, income, literacy and immigration status), dental care and dietary habits. Prevalence rates, prevalence ratios and logistic regressions were calculated. RESULTS: The overall ECC prevalence was 24.8 %. ECC was less frequent among children from higher socioeconomic backgrounds than children from lower ones (prevalence ratios ≤ 0.58). CONCLUSIONS: This study reported a worrying prevalence rate of ECC among children from 36 to 71 months old, living in French-speaking Switzerland. ECC appears to be a good marker of social inequalities as disadvantaged children, whether from Swiss or immigrant backgrounds, were more likely to have caries than their less disadvantaged peers. Specific preventive interventions regarding ECC are needed for all disadvantaged children, whether immigrants or Swiss.

Social Cognition and Behavior in Relationship Context

Social information processing (SIP; Crick & Dodge, 1994) and social-cognitive learning theories have been often used to understand children’s problem behaviors, such as aggression. According to these theories, children’s thinking guides their subsequent behaviors. Although most of us agree that social behavior and underlying thought processes are context-dependent, personality and social development researchers have usually engaged in searching for stable patterns of dispositions and behaviors, ignoring (or treating as error) the variance across different situations and relationship types. This, however, can result in erroneous conclusions and question the interpretation of previous findings. Four studies were conducted to explore the influence of relationship context on children’s social-cognitive evaluations and behavior. Samples were fourth to sixth graders from Estonia and Finland. Social cognitions were assessed by presenting children with hypothetical vignettes where the previously identified relationship partner’s behavior had a negative consequence for the child (Studies I, II, and IV), followed by questions measuring different social-cognitive processes (e.g., hostile attributions, behavioral strategies, outcome expectations and self-efficacy beliefs for aggression). In addition, in Studies II and IV, children provided information about their behavior within a specific relationship context. In Study III, an affective priming paradigm was employed where participants were presented with a short display of photographs of children’s liked and disliked classmates, and unknown peers. The results of this thesis suggest that children’s thinking and behavior are largely influenced by the affective valence of the relationship. Moreover, cognitions guide behavior within the relationship. The current findings offer a fruitful avenue for studying the heterogeneity of peer interactions.

Els altres parlants i la història social de la llengua

The social history of language is usually focused on collective actors. This article aims to reflect both on the speakers as individual subjects of the social history of language and on the sources which allow an approach to speakers, more precisely immigrants of the contemporary Catalonia. In very different narratives, immigrants talk about their territory of origin or economic conditions, and also about languages expressing the most varied language attitudes. Prejudices or language uses, common topics of these narratives, are fully within the field of social history of the language. Speakers cannot be always out of disciplines whose narrative axis is the time

From urban political economy to the cultural political economy : rethinking culture and economy in and beyond the urban

Discussions about the culture-economy articulation have occurred largely within theconfines of economic geography. In addition, much attention has been diverted intocaricaturized discussions over the demise of political economy or the invalidity ofculturalist arguments. Moving the argument from the inquiry on the ¿nature¿ of theeconomy itself to the transformation of the role of culture and economy inunderstanding the production of the urban form from an urban political economy (UPE)this paper focuses on how the challenges posed by the cultural turn have enabled urbanpolitical economy to participate constructively in interdisciplinary efforts to reorientpolitical economy in the direction of a critical cultural political economy.

Mobility Among Social Education Students at the University of Girona: Taking Stock of a Decade of Fieldwork Practice Abroad

The following article is divided into five sections, each one with a specific objective. The first section briefly presents the student mobility experiences obtained basically through the fieldwork practice course in social education studies at the University of Girona. The second section delves more deeply to explore the value of the exchange and the student mobility experience over one semester of intensive fieldwork practice. The third section presents data about the students who have participated in this experience inall ten of the graduating classes. The fourth part offers an assessment of the experience and reports which aspects are considered essential to a good student mobility experience. Finally, various actions to be taken to improve these educational experiences within the social education studies at the University of Girona are specified

Maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and in 2015

The Gulf of Finland is said to be one of the densest operated sea areas in the world. It is a shallow and economically vulnerable sea area with dense passenger and cargo traffic of which petroleum transports have a share of over 50 %. The winter conditions add to the risks of maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland. It is widely believed that the growth of maritime transportation will continue also in the future. The Gulf of Finland is surrounded by three very different national economies with, different maritime transportation structures. Finland is a country of high GDP/per capita with a diversified economic structure. The number of ports is large and the maritime transportation consists of many types of cargoes: raw materials, industrial products, consumer goods, coal and petroleum products, and the Russian transit traffic of e.g. new cars and consumer goods. Russia is a large country with huge growth potential; in recent years, the expansion of petroleum exports has lead to a strong economic growth, which is also apparent in the growth of maritime transports. Russia has been expanding its port activities in the Gulf of Finland and it is officially aiming to transport its own imports and exports through the Russian ports in the future; now they are being transported to great extend through the Finnish, Estonian and other Baltic ports. Russia has five ports in the Gulf of Finland. Estonia has also experienced fast economic growth, but the growth has been slowing down already during the past couples of years. The size of its economy is small compared to Russia, which means the transported tonnes cannot be very massive. However, relatively large amounts of the Russian petroleum exports have been transported through the Estonian ports. The future of the Russian transit traffic in Estonia looks nevertheless uncertain and it remains to be seen how it will develop and if Estonia is able to find replacing cargoes if the Russian transit traffic will come to an end in the Estonian ports. Estonia’s own import and export consists of forestry products, metals or other raw materials and consumer goods. Estonia has many ports on the shores of the Gulf of Finland, but the port of Tallinn dominates the cargo volumes. In 2007, 263 M tonnes of cargoes were transported in the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland, of which the share of petroleum products was 56 %. 23 % of the cargoes were loaded or unloaded in the Finnish ports, 60 % in the Russian ports and 17 % in the Estonian ports. The largest ports were Primorsk (74.2 M tonnes) St. Petersburg (59.5 M tonnes), Tallinn (35.9 M tonnes), Sköldvik (19.8 M tonnes), Vysotsk (16.5 M tonnes) and Helsinki (13.4 M) tonnes. Approximately 53 600 ship calls were made in the ports of the Gulf of Finland. The densest traffic was found in the ports of St. Petersburg (14 651 ship calls), Helsinki (11 727 ship calls) and Tallinn (10 614 ship calls) in 2007. The transportation scenarios are usually based on the assumption that the amount of transports follows the development of the economy, although also other factors influence the development of transportation, e.g. government policy, environmental aspects, and social and behavioural trends. The relationship between the development of transportation and the economy is usually analyzed in terms of the development of GDP and trade. When the GDP grows to a certain level, especially the international transports increase because countries of high GDP produce, consume and thus transport more. An effective transportation system is also a precondition for the economic development. In this study, the following factors were taken into consideration when formulating the future scenarios: maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland 2007, economic development, development of key industries, development of infrastructure and environmental aspects in relation to maritime transportation. The basic starting points for the three alternative scenarios were: • the slow growth scenario: economic recession • the average growth scenario: economy will recover quickly from current instability • the strong growth scenario: the most optimistic views on development will realize According to the slow growth scenario, the total tonnes for the maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland would be 322.4 M tonnes in 2015, which would mean a growth of 23 % compared to 2007. In the average growth scenario, the total tonnes were estimated to be 431.6 M tonnes – a growth of 64 %, and in the strong growth scenario 507.2 M tonnes – a growth of 93%. These tonnes were further divided into petroleum products and other cargoes by country, into export, import and domestic traffic by country, and between the ports. For petroleum products, the share of crude oil and oil products was estimated and the number of tanker calls in 2015 was calculated for each scenario. However, the future development of maritime transportation in the GoF is dependent on so many societal and economic variables that it is not realistic to predict one exact point estimate value for the cargo tonnes for a certain scenario. Plenty of uncertainty is related both to the degree in which the scenario will come true as well as to the cause-effect relations between the different variables. For these reasons, probability distributions for each scenario were formulated by an expert group. As a result, a range for the total tonnes of each scenario was formulated and they are as follows: the slow growth scenario: 280.8 – 363 M tonnes (expectation value 322.4 M tonnes)