North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment

This study investigates the response of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) as simulated by 18 global coupled general circulation models that participated in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). NAO has been assessed in control and transient 80-year simulations produced by each model under constant forcing, and 1% per year increasing concentrations of CO2, respectively. Although generally able to simulate the main features of NAO, the majority of models overestimate the observed mean wintertime NAO index of 8 hPa by 5-10 hPa. Furthermore, none of the models, in either the control or perturbed simulations, are able to reproduce decadal trends as strong as that seen in the observed NAO index from 1970-1995. Of the 15 models able to simulate the NAO pressure dipole, 13 predict a positive increase in NAO with increasing CO2 concentrations. The magnitude of the response is generally small and highly model-dependent, which leads to large uncertainty in multi-model estimates such as the median estimate of 0.0061 +/- 0.0036 hPa per %CO2. Although an increase of 0.61 hPa in NAO for a doubling in CO2 represents only a relatively small shift of 0.18 standard deviations in the probability distribution of winter mean NAO, this can cause large relative increases in the probabilities of extreme values of NAO associated with damaging impacts. Despite the large differences in NAO responses, the models robustly predict similar statistically significant changes in winter mean temperature (warmer over most of Europe) and precipitation (an increase over Northern Europe). Although these changes present a pattern similar to that expected due to an increase in the NAO index, linear regression is used to show that the response is much greater than can be attributed to small increases in NAO. NAO trends are not the key contributor to model-predicted climate change in wintertime mean temperature and precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean region. However, the models' inability to capture the observed decadal variability in NAO might also signify a major deficiency in their ability to simulate the NAO-related responses to climate change.

Review of theoretical models of electromagnetic NDT and their applications

There is an increasing interest in modelling electromagnetic methods of NDT - particularly eddy currents. A collaboration within the International Institute of Welding led to a survey intended to explain to non mathematicians the present scope of modelling. The present review commences with this survey and then points out some of the developments and some of the outstanding problems in transferring modelling into industry.

A multispacecraft analysis of a small-scale transient entrained by solar wind streams

The images taken by the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs), part of the SECCHI imaging package onboard the pair of STEREO spacecraft, provide information on the radial and latitudinal evolution of the plasma compressed inside corotating interaction regions (CIRs). A plasma density wave imaged by the HI instrument onboard STEREO-B was found to propagate towards STEREO-A, enabling a comparison between simultaneous remotesensing and in situ observations of its structure to be performed. In situ measurements made by STEREO-A show that the plasma density wave is associated with the passage of a CIR. The magnetic field compressed after the CIR stream interface (SI) is found to have a planar distribution. Minimum variance analysis of the magnetic field vectors shows that the SI is inclined at 54° to the orbital plane of the STEREO-A spacecraft. This inclination of the CIR SI is comparable to the inclination of the associated plasma density wave observed by HI. A small-scale magnetic cloud with a flux rope topology and radial extent of 0.08 AU is also embedded prior to the SI. The pitch-angle distribution of suprathermal electrons measured by the STEREO-A SWEA instrument shows that an open magnetic field topology in the cloud replaced the heliospheric current sheet locally. These observations confirm that HI observes CIRs in difference images when a small-scale transient is caught up in the compression region.

Transient teleconnection event at the onset of a planet-encircling dust storm on Mars

We use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to study a transient teleconnection event at the onset of the 2001 planet-encircling dust storm on Mars, in terms of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). There are several differences between this and previous studies of atmospheric events using EOFs. First, instead of using a single variable such as surface pressure or geopotential height on a given pressure surface, we use a dataset describing the evolution in time of global and fully three-dimensional atmospheric fields such as horizontal velocity and temperature. These fields are produced by assimilating Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft into a Mars general circulation model. We use total atmospheric energy (TE) as a physically meaningful quantity which weights the state variables. Second, instead of adopting the EOFs to define teleconnection patterns as planetary-scale correlations that explain a large portion of long time-scale variability, we use EOFs to understand transient processes due to localised heating perturbations that have implications for the atmospheric circulation over distant regions. The localised perturbation is given by anomalous heating due to the enhanced presence of dust around the northern edge of the Hellas Planitia basin on Mars. We show that the localised disturbance is seemingly restricted to a small number (a few tens) of EOFs. These can be classified as low-order, transitional, or high-order EOFs according to the TE amount they explain throughout the event. Despite the global character of the EOFs, they show the capability of accounting for the localised effects of the perturbation via the presence of specific centres of action. We finally discuss possible applications for the study of terrestrial phenomena with similar characteristics.

Quantifying mesoscale variability in ocean transient tracer fields

A powerful way to test the realism of ocean general circulation models is to systematically compare observations of passive tracer concentration with model predictions. The general circulation models used in this way cannot resolve a full range of vigorous mesoscale activity (on length scales between 10–100 km). In the real ocean, however, this activity causes important variability in tracer fields. Thus, in order to rationally compare tracer observations with model predictions these unresolved fluctuations (the model variability error) must be estimated. We have analyzed this variability using an eddy‐resolving reduced‐gravity model in a simple midlatitude double‐gyre configuration. We find that the wave number spectrum of tracer variance is only weakly sensitive to the distribution of (large scale slowly varying) tracer sources and sinks. This suggests that a universal passive tracer spectrum may exist in the ocean. We estimate the spectral shape using high‐resolution measurements of potential temperature on an isopycnal in the upper northeast Atlantic Ocean, finding a slope near k −1.7 between 10 and 500 km. The typical magnitude of the variance is estimated by comparing tracer simulations using different resolutions. For CFC‐ and tritium‐type transient tracers the peak magnitude of the model variability saturation error may reach 0.20 for scales shorter than 100 km. This is of the same order as the time mean saturation itself and well over an order of magnitude greater than the instrumental uncertainty.

The seventh colloquium on high resolution molecular spectroscopy

This conference, held 14-18 September 1981, addressed many aspects of high resolution molecular spectroscopy. Measurement techniques for remotely identifying trace gases in the atmosphere were discussed. Instrumentation for highly accurate and precise measurement of molecular emissions were described. The objective of the colloquium was to bring together molecular spectroscopists working in different regions of the electromagnetic spectrum from the ultraviolet to radio frequencies. These scientists shared a common interest in high resolution gas phase spectra and their analyses. The objective was met through the presentation of about 20 invited papers and many more contributed papers.

Gene transfection of HEK cells on supermacroporous polyacrylamide monoliths: a comparison of transient and stable recombinant protein expression in perfusion culture

Transient and continuous recombinant protein expression by HEK cells was evaluated in a perfused monolithic bioreactor. Highly porous synthetic cryogel scaffolds (10ml bed volume) were characterised by scanning electron microscopy and tested as cell substrates. Efficient seeding was achieved (94% inoculum retained, with 91-95% viability). Metabolite monitoring indicated continuous cell growth, and endpoint cell density was estimated by genomic DNA quantification to be 5.2x108, 1.1x109 and 3.5x1010 at day 10, 14 and 18. Culture of stably transfected cells allowed continuous production of the Drosophila cytokine Spätzle by the bioreactor at the same rate as in monolayer culture (total 1.2 mg at d18) and this protein was active. In transient transfection experiments more protein was produced per cell compared with monolayer culture. Confocal microscopy confirmed homogenous GFP expression after transient transfection within the bioreactor. Monolithic bioreactors are thus shown to be a flexible and powerful tool for manufacturing recombinant proteins.

Typification of farming systems for constructing representative farm models: two illustrations of the application of multi-variate analyses in Chile and Pakistan

If the fundamental precepts of Farming Systems Research were to be taken literally then it would imply that for each farm 'unique' solutions should be sought. This is an unrealistic expectation, but it has led to the idea of a recommendation domain, implying creating a taxonomy of farms, in order to increase the general applicability of recommendations. Mathematical programming models are an established means of generating recommended solutions, but for such models to be effective they have to be constructed for 'truly' typical or representative situations. The multi-variate statistical techniques provide a means of creating the required typologies, particularly when an exhaustive database is available. This paper illustrates the application of this methodology in two different studies that shared the common purpose of identifying types of farming systems in their respective study areas. The issues related with the use of factor and cluster analyses for farm typification prior to building representative mathematical programming models for Chile and Pakistan are highlighted. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Elusive relationships within order fabales: phylogenetic analyses using matK and rbcL sequence data

The order Fabales, including Leguminosae, Polygalaceae, Quillajaceae and Surianaceae, represents a novel hypothesis emerging from angiosperm molecular phylogenies. Despite good support for the order, molecular studies to date have suggested contradictory, poorly supported interfamilial relationships. Our reappraisal of relationships within Fabales addresses past taxon sampling deficiencies, and employs parsimony and Bayesian approaches using sequences from the plastid regions rbcL (166 spp.) and matK (78 spp.). Five alternative hypotheses for interfamilial relationships within Fabales were recovered. The Shimodaira-Hasegawa test found the likelihood of a resolved topology significantly higher than the one calculated for a polytomy, but did not favour any of the alternative hypotheses of relationship within Fabales. In the light of the morphological evidence available and the comparative behavior of rbcL and matK, the topology recovering Polygalaceae as sister to the rest of the order Fabales with Leguminosae more closely related to Quillajaceae + Surianaceae, is considered the most likely hypothesis of interfamilial relationships of the order. Dating of selected crown clades in the Fabales phylogeny using penalized likelihood suggests rapid radiation of the Leguminosae, Polygalaceae, and (Quillajaceae + Surianaceae) crown clades.

Genomic and genetic analyses of diversity and plant interactions of Pseudomonas fluorescens

Background: Pseudomonas fluorescens are common soil bacteria that can improve plant health through nutrient cycling, pathogen antagonism and induction of plant defenses. The genome sequences of strains SBW25 and Pf0-1 were determined and compared to each other and with P. fluorescens Pf-5. A functional genomic in vivo expression technology (IVET) screen provided insight into genes used by P. fluorescens in its natural environment and an improved understanding of the ecological significance of diversity within this species. Results: Comparisons of three P. fluorescens genomes (SBW25, Pf0-1, Pf-5) revealed considerable divergence: 61% of genes are shared, the majority located near the replication origin. Phylogenetic and average amino acid identity analyses showed a low overall relationship. A functional screen of SBW25 defined 125 plant-induced genes including a range of functions specific to the plant environment. Orthologues of 83 of these exist in Pf0-1 and Pf-5, with 73 shared by both strains. The P. fluorescens genomes carry numerous complex repetitive DNA sequences, some resembling Miniature Inverted-repeat Transposable Elements (MITEs). In SBW25, repeat density and distribution revealed 'repeat deserts' lacking repeats, covering approximately 40% of the genome. Conclusions: P. fluorescens genomes are highly diverse. Strain-specific regions around the replication terminus suggest genome compartmentalization. The genomic heterogeneity among the three strains is reminiscent of a species complex rather than a single species. That 42% of plant-inducible genes were not shared by all strains reinforces this conclusion and shows that ecological success requires specialized and core functions. The diversity also indicates the significant size of genetic information within the Pseudomonas pan genome.

Strategies to prevent falls and fractures in hospitals and care homes and effect of cognitive impairment: systematic review and meta-analyses

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the evidence for strategies to prevent falls or fractures in residents in care homes and hospital inpatients and to investigate the effect of dementia and cognitive impairment. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analyses of studies grouped by intervention and setting (hospital or care home). Meta-regression to investigate the effects of dementia and of study quality and design. DATA SOURCES: Medline, CINAHL, Embase, PsychInfo, Cochrane Database, Clinical Trials Register, and hand searching of references from reviews and guidelines to January 2005. RESULTS: 1207 references were identified, including 115 systematic reviews, expert reviews, or guidelines. Of the 92 full papers inspected, 43 were included. Meta-analysis for multifaceted interventions in hospital (13 studies) showed a rate ratio of 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.68 to 0.997) for falls but no significant effect on the number of fallers or fractures. For hip protectors in care homes (11 studies) the rate ratio for hip fractures was 0.67 (0.46 to 0.98), but there was no significant effect on falls and not enough studies on fallers. For all other interventions (multifaceted interventions in care homes; removal of physical restraints in either setting; fall alarm devices in either setting; exercise in care homes; calcium/vitamin D in care homes; changes in the physical environment in either setting; medication review in hospital) meta-analysis was either unsuitable because of insufficient studies or showed no significant effect on falls, fallers, or fractures, despite strongly positive results in some individual studies. Meta-regression showed no significant association between effect size and prevalence of dementia or cognitive impairment. CONCLUSION: There is some evidence that multifaceted interventions in hospital reduce the number of falls and that use of hip protectors in care homes prevents hip fractures. There is insufficient evidence, however, for the effectiveness of other single interventions in hospitals or care homes or multifaceted interventions in care homes.