Intelligent methods for load forecasting

Load forecasting is an important task in the management of a power utility. The most recent developments in forecasting involve the use of artificial intelligence techniques, which offer powerful modelling capabilities. This paper discusses these techniques and provides a review of their application to load forecasting.

Quantification of mitochondrial DNA mutation load

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mutations are an important cause of genetic disease and have been proposed to play a role in the ageing process. Quantification of total mtDNA mutation load in ageing tissues is difficult as mutational events are rare in a background of wild-type molecules, and detection of individual mutated molecules is beyond the sensitivity of most sequencing based techniques. The methods currently most commonly used to document the incidence of mtDNA point mutations in ageing include post-PCR cloning, single-molecule PCR and the random mutation capture assay. The mtDNA mutation load obtained by these different techniques varies by orders of magnitude, but direct comparison of the three techniques on the same ageing human tissue has not been performed. We assess the procedures and practicalities involved in each of these three assays and discuss the results obtained by investigation of mutation loads in colonic mucosal biopsies from ten human subjects.

A method of formulating energy load profile for domestic buildings in the UK

There are varieties of physical and behavioral factors to determine energy demand load profile. The attainment of the optimum mix of measures and renewable energy system deployment requires a simple method suitable for using at the early design stage. A simple method of formulating load profile (SMLP) for UK domestic buildings has been presented in this paper. Domestic space heating load profile for different types of houses have been produced using thermal dynamic model which has been developed using thermal resistant network method. The daily breakdown energy demand load profile of appliance, domestic hot water and space heating can be predicted using this method. The method can produce daily load profile from individual house to urban community. It is suitable to be used at Renewable energy system strategic design stage.

A combined engineering and statistical model of UK domestic appliance electrical load profiles

The development of a combined engineering and statistical Artificial Neural Network model of UK domestic appliance load profiles is presented. The model uses diary-style appliance use data and a survey questionnaire collected from 51 suburban households and 46 rural households during the summer of 2010 and2011 respectively. It also incorporates measured energy data and is sensitive to socioeconomic, physical dwelling and temperature variables. A prototype model is constructed in MATLAB using a two layer feed forward network with back propagation training which has a 12:10:24 architecture. Model outputs include appliance load profiles which can be applied to the fields of energy planning (microrenewables and smart grids), building simulation tools and energy policy.

Adaptive recursive control of a soil testing load frame

Recursive Learning Control (RLC) has the potential to significantly reduce the tracking error in many repetitive trajectory applications. This paper presents an application of RLC to a soil testing load frame where non-adaptive techniques struggle with the highly nonlinear nature of soil. The main purpose of the controller is to apply a sinusoidal force reference trajectory on a soil sample with a high degree of accuracy and repeatability. The controller uses a feedforward control structure, recursive least squares adaptation algorithm and RLC to compensate for periodic errors. Tracking error is reduced and stability is maintained across various soil sample responses.

Constrained principal component analysis reveals functionally connected load-dependent networks involved in multiple stages of working memory

Constrained principal component analysis (CPCA) with a finite impulse response (FIR) basis set was used to reveal functionally connected networks and their temporal progression over a multistage verbal working memory trial in which memory load was varied. Four components were extracted, and all showed statistically significant sensitivity to the memory load manipulation. Additionally, two of the four components sustained this peak activity, both for approximately 3 s (Components 1 and 4). The functional networks that showed sustained activity were characterized by increased activations in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, and left supramarginal gyrus, and decreased activations in the primary auditory cortex and "default network" regions. The functional networks that did not show sustained activity were instead dominated by increased activation in occipital cortex, dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, sensori-motor cortical regions, and superior parietal cortex. The response shapes suggest that although all four components appear to be invoked at encoding, the two sustained-peak components are likely to be additionally involved in the delay period. Our investigation provides a unique view of the contributions made by a network of brain regions over the course of a multiple-stage working memory trial.

Brief communication. Rain effect on the load of tephra deposits

Accumulation of tephra fallout produced during explosive eruptions can cause roof collapses in areas near the volcano, when the weight of the deposit exceeds some threshold value that depends on the quality of buildings. The additional loading of water that remains trapped in the tephra deposits due to rainfall can contribute to increasing the loading of the deposits on the roofs. Here we propose a simple approach to estimate an upper bound for the contribution of rain to the load of pyroclastic deposits that is useful for hazard assessment purposes. As case study we present an application of the method in the area of Naples, Italy, for a reference eruption from Vesuvius volcano.

Evaluation and management of the impact of land use change on the nitrogen and phosphorus load delivered to surface waters: the export coefficient modelling approach

A manageable, relatively inexpensive model was constructed to predict the loss of nitrogen and phosphorus from a complex catchment to its drainage system. The model used an export coefficient approach, calculating the total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorus (P) load delivered annually to a water body as the sum of the individual loads exported from each nutrient source in its catchment. The export coefficient modelling approach permits scaling up from plot-scale experiments to the catchment scale, allowing application of findings from field experimental studies at a suitable scale for catchment management. The catchment of the River Windrush, a tributary of the River Thames, UK, was selected as the initial study site. The Windrush model predicted nitrogen and phosphorus loading within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 0.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1989. The export coefficient modelling approach was then validated by application in a second research basin, the catchment of Slapton Ley, south Devon, which has markedly different catchment hydrology and land use. The Slapton model was calibrated within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 2.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1986. Both models proved sensitive to the impact of temporal changes in land use and management on water quality in both catchments, and were therefore used to evaluate the potential impact of proposed pollution control strategies on the nutrient loading delivered to the River Windrush and Slapton Ley

Suspended and bed load sediment transport dynamics in two lowland UK streams—storm integrated monitoring

A great deal of work recently has focused on suspended and bedload sediment transport, driven primarily by interest in contaminant transfer. However, uncertainties regarding the role of storm events, macrophyte beds and interactions between the two phases of sediment still exist. This paper compares two study sites within the same catchment whose geology varies significantly. The differences in hydrology, suspended sediment (SS) transport and bed load transport that this causes are examined. In addition, a method to predict the mobilization of different size fractions of sediment during given flows is investigated using critical entrainment thresholds.

What limits insect fecundity? Body size- and temperature-dependent egg maturation and oviposition in a butterfly

1. Large female insects usually have high potential fecundity. Therefore selection should favour an increase in body size given that these females get opportunities to realize their potential advantage by maturing and laying more eggs. However, ectotherm physiology is strongly temperature-dependent, and activities are carried out sufficiently only within certain temperature ranges. Thus it remains unclear if the fecundity advantage of a large size is fully realized in natural environments, where thermal conditions are limiting. 2. Insect fecundity might be limited by temperature at two levels; first eggs need to mature, and then the female needs time for strategic ovipositing of the egg. Since a female cannot foresee the number of oviposition opportunities that she will encounter on a given day, the optimal rate of egg maturation will be governed by trade-offs associated with egg- and time-limited oviposition. As females of different sizes will have different amounts of body reserves, size-dependent allocation trade-offs between the mother’s condition and her egg production might be expected. 3. In the temperate butterfly Pararge aegeria , the time and temperature dependence of oviposition and egg maturation, and the interrelatedness of these two processes were investigated in a series of laboratory experiments, allowing a decoupling of the time budgets for the respective processes. 4. The results show that realized fecundity of this species can be limited by both the temperature dependence of egg maturation and oviposition under certain thermal regimes. Furthermore, rates of oviposition and egg maturation seemed to have regulatory effects upon each other. Early reproductive output was correlated with short life span, indicating a cost of reproduction. Finally, large females matured more eggs than small females when deprived of oviposition opportunities. Thus, the optimal allocation of resources to egg production seems dependent on female size. 5. This study highlights the complexity of processes underlying rates of egg maturation and oviposition in ectotherms under natural conditions. We further discuss the importance of temperature variation for egg- vs. time-limited fecundity and the consequences for the evolution of female body size in insects.

Investigation of sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia) cultivar differences on nitrogen balance and fecal egg count in artificially infected lambs

Research in ruminant nutrition and helminth control with forages, which contain condensed tannins (CT), suggests that varying responses may depend not only on CT concentration but also on CT composition. An experiment was designed to test this by feeding 2 dried sainfoin cultivars (Visnovsky and Perly), which differed in CT properties, to lambs that were artificially infected with the abomasal blood-sucking nematode Haemonchus contortus. Twenty-four infected lambs received one of these 2 cultivars; the feeds were either untreated or treated with the CT-binding polyethylene glycol over 4 wk (n = 6). The 2 cultivars were also fed to 2 × 6 uninfected lambs. Nutrient digestibility, N balance, ADG, plasma urea together with indicators of infection [fecal egg count (FEC), abomasal worm count, per capita female fecundity, erythrocytic indices, and serum protein] were determined. The specific effects of sainfoin cultivar, CT, and infection were evaluated by contrast analysis. Digestibility of both NDF and ADF were lower (P < 0.001) with Perly compared to Visnovsky. The apparent nutrient digestibility was reduced (P < 0.001) by CT. However, no clear cultivar effects were evident on N excretion and retention. Condensed tannins reduced (P = 0.05) body N retention and shifted (P < 0.001) N excretion from urine to feces. Unlike cultivar and CT, infection decreased (P = 0.002) ADG. Plasma urea concentration was lower (P = 0.007) in Perly- compared to Visnovsky-fed lambs and was decreased (P < 0.001) by CT. Plasma concentrations of essential and semi-essential AA were increased (P < 0.001) by CT. The groups of infected lambs did not clearly differ in abomasal worm counts and erythrocytic indicators. In the last 2 to 3 wk of the experiment, FEC was lower (P ≤ 0.01) when feeding CT. The lack of substantial cultivar effects suggests that the differences in CT properties may have been too small to result in nutritional and anthelmintic effects. The present results indicate that sainfoin CT had a mitigating effect on FEC and, consequently, pasture infectivity. However, the reduction was too low to expect any significant benefits in an Haemonchus-dominated system. Therefore, the use of sainfoin for controlling H. contortus should only be one component within an integrated worm control system.

Effects of soil conditions and drought on egg hatching and larval survival of the clover root weevil (Sitona lepidus)

Soil-dwelling insect herbivores are significant pests in many managed ecosystems. Because eggs and larvae are difficult to observe, mathematical models have been developed to predict life-cycle events occurring in the soil. To date, these models have incorporated very little empirical information about how soil and drought conditions interact to shape these processes. This study investigated how soil temperature (10, 15, 20 and 25 °C), water content (0.02 (air dried), 0.10 and 0.25 g g−1) and pH (5, 7 and 9) interactively affected egg hatching and early larval lifespan of the clover root weevil (Sitona lepidus Gyllenhal, Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Eggs developed over 3.5 times faster at 25 °C compared with 10 °C (hatching after 40.1 and 11.5 days, respectively). The effect of drought on S. lepidus eggs was investigated by exposing eggs to drought conditions before wetting the soil (2–12 days later) at four temperatures. No eggs hatched in dry soil, suggesting that S. lepidus eggs require water to remain viable. Eggs hatched significantly sooner in slightly acidic soil (pH 5) compared with soils with higher pH values. There was also a significant interaction between soil temperature, pH and soil water content. Egg viability was significantly reduced by exposure to drought. When exposed to 2–6 days of drought, egg viability was 80–100% at all temperatures but fell to 50% after 12 days exposure at 10 °C and did not hatch at all at 20 °C and above. Drought exposure also increased hatching time of viable eggs. The effects of soil conditions on unfed larvae were less influential, except for soil temperature which significantly reduced larval longevity by 57% when reared at 25 °C compared with 10 °C (4.1 and 9.7 days, respectively). The effects of soil conditions on S. lepidus eggs and larvae are discussed in the context of global climate change and how such empirically based information could be useful for refining existing mathematical models of these processes.

Modelling of control options for an outbreak of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in egg production: a decision support tool

Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) is a bacterium that causes respiratory disease in chickens, leading to reduced egg production. A dynamic simulation model was developed that can be used to assess the costs and benefits of control using antimicrobials or vaccination in caged or free range systems. The intended users are veterinarians and egg producers. A user interface is provided for input of flock specific parameters. The economic consequence of an MG outbreak is expressed as a reduction in expected egg output. The model predicts that either vaccination or microbial treatment can approximately halve potential losses from MG in some circumstances. Sensitivity analysis is used to test assumptions about infection rate and timing of an outbreak. Feedback from veterinarians points to the value of the model as a discussion tool with producers.