992 resultados para Dynamic conditional score
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The relationship between changes in body condition score (BCS) during the postpartum and fertility in beef cows suckling calves under extensive conditions were investigated. Cows were subjected to four BCS evaluations over the postpartum period, starting around one month after calving. In the second evaluation cows were treated with medroxy-progesterone acetate impregnated pessaries and received an injection of estradiol benzoate. At the third evaluation, pessaries were removed and calves were separated from the cows for 96 hours, during which time estrous was observed twice a day, and animals artificially inseminated 12 hours after detection. When calves returned to their dams, bulls were introduced until a 60-day mating period was reached. The distribution of BCS differed among calving groups and evaluations. Results indicated that only cows comprising a BCS 3 (1 to 5 scale) around the first month postpartum can be used in an artificial insemination program with possibilities of becoming pregnant. There was no statistical difference between the calving groups in pregnancy rate. The evolution of the BCS of the cows during postpartum can be used to adjust the start of the breeding season to coincide with the time of the year where herd pregnancy rates will be highest.
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The assimilation model is a qualitative and integrative approach that enables to study change processes that occur in psychotherapy. According to Stiles, this model conceives the individual's personality as constituent of different voices; the concept of voice is used to describe traces left by past experiences. During the psychotherapy, we can observe the progressive integration of the problematic voices into the patient's personality. We applied the assimilation model to a 34-session-long case of an effective short-term dynamic psychotherapy. We've chosen eight sessions we transcribed and analyzed by establishing points of contact between the case and the theory. The results are presented and discussed in terms of the evolution of the main voices in the patient.
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Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulations provide a flexible means of quantitatively integrating diverse types of subsurface data. Although such techniques are being increasingly used in hydrocarbon reservoir characterization studies, their potential in environmental, engineering and hydrological investigations is still largely unexploited. Here, we introduce a novel simulated annealing (SA) algorithm geared towards the integration of high-resolution geophysical and hydrological data which, compared to more conventional approaches, provides significant advancements in the way that large-scale structural information in the geophysical data is accounted for. Model perturbations in the annealing procedure are made by drawing from a probability distribution for the target parameter conditioned to the geophysical data. This is the only place where geophysical information is utilized in our algorithm, which is in marked contrast to other approaches where model perturbations are made through the swapping of values in the simulation grid and agreement with soft data is enforced through a correlation coefficient constraint. Another major feature of our algorithm is the way in which available geostatistical information is utilized. Instead of constraining realizations to match a parametric target covariance model over a wide range of spatial lags, we constrain the realizations only at smaller lags where the available geophysical data cannot provide enough information. Thus we allow the larger-scale subsurface features resolved by the geophysical data to have much more due control on the output realizations. Further, since the only component of the SA objective function required in our approach is a covariance constraint at small lags, our method has improved convergence and computational efficiency over more traditional methods. Here, we present the results of applying our algorithm to the integration of porosity log and tomographic crosshole georadar data to generate stochastic realizations of the local-scale porosity structure. Our procedure is first tested on a synthetic data set, and then applied to data collected at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site.
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Large Dynamic Message Signs (DMSs) have been increasingly used on freeways, expressways and major arterials to better manage the traffic flow by providing accurate and timely information to drivers. Overhead truss structures are typically employed to support those DMSs allowing them to provide wider display to more lanes. In recent years, there is increasing evidence that the truss structures supporting these large and heavy signs are subjected to much more complex loadings than are typically accounted for in the codified design procedures. Consequently, some of these structures have required frequent inspections, retrofitting, and even premature replacement. Two manufacturing processes are primarily utilized on truss structures - welding and bolting. Recently, cracks at welding toes were reported for the structures employed in some states. Extremely large loads (e.g., due to high winds) could cause brittle fractures, and cyclic vibration (e.g., due to diurnal variation in temperature or due to oscillations in the wind force induced by vortex shedding behind the DMS) may lead to fatigue damage, as these are two major failures for the metallic material. Wind and strain resulting from temperature changes are the main loads that affect the structures during their lifetime. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Specification defines the limit loads in dead load, wind load, ice load, and fatigue design for natural wind gust and truck-induced gust. The objectives of this study are to investigate wind and thermal effects in the bridge type overhead DMS truss structures and improve the current design specifications (e.g., for thermal design). In order to accomplish the objective, it is necessary to study structural behavior and detailed strain-stress of the truss structures caused by wind load on the DMS cabinet and thermal load on the truss supporting the DMS cabinet. The study is divided into two parts. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) component and part of the structural analysis component of the study were conducted at the University of Iowa while the field study and related structural analysis computations were conducted at the Iowa State University. The CFD simulations were used to determine the air-induced forces (wind loads) on the DMS cabinets and the finite element analysis was used to determine the response of the supporting trusses to these pressure forces. The field observation portion consisted of short-term monitoring of several DMS Cabinet/Trusses and long-term monitoring of one DMS Cabinet/Truss. The short-term monitoring was a single (or two) day event in which several message sign panel/trusses were tested. The long-term monitoring field study extended over several months. Analysis of the data focused on trying to identify important behaviors under both ambient and truck induced winds and the effect of daily temperature changes. Results of the CFD investigation, field experiments and structural analysis of the wind induced forces on the DMS cabinets and their effect on the supporting trusses showed that the passage of trucks cannot be responsible for the problems observed to develop at trusses supporting DMS cabinets. Rather the data pointed toward the important effect of the thermal load induced by cyclic (diurnal) variations of the temperature. Thermal influence is not discussed in the specification, either in limit load or fatigue design. Although the frequency of the thermal load is low, results showed that when temperature range is large the restress range would be significant to the structure, especially near welding areas where stress concentrations may occur. Moreover stress amplitude and range are the primary parameters for brittle fracture and fatigue life estimation. Long-term field monitoring of one of the overhead truss structures in Iowa was used as the research baseline to estimate the effects of diurnal temperature changes to fatigue damage. The evaluation of the collected data is an important approach for understanding the structural behavior and for the advancement of future code provisions. Finite element modeling was developed to estimate the strain and stress magnitudes, which were compared with the field monitoring data. Fatigue life of the truss structures was also estimated based on AASHTO specifications and the numerical modeling. The main conclusion of the study is that thermal induced fatigue damage of the truss structures supporting DMS cabinets is likely a significant contributing cause for the cracks observed to develop at such structures. Other probable causes for fatigue damage not investigated in this study are the cyclic oscillations of the total wind load associated with the vortex shedding behind the DMS cabinet at high wind conditions and fabrication tolerances and induced stresses due to fitting of tube to tube connections.
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Working memory, commonly defined as the ability to hold mental representations on line transiently and to manipulate these representations, is known to be a core deficit in schizophrenia. The aim of the present study was to investigate the visuo-spatial component of the working memory in schizophrenia, and more precisely to what extent the dynamic visuo-spatial information processing is impaired in schizophrenia patients. For this purpose we used a computerized paradigm in which 29 patients with schizophrenia (DSMIV, Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies) and 29 age and sex matched control subjects (DIGS) had to memorize a plane moving across the computer screen and to identify the observed trajectory among 9 plots proposed together. Each trajectory could be seen max. 3 times if needed. The results showed no difference between schizophrenia patients and controls regarding the number of correct trajectory identified after the first presentation. However, when we determine the mean number of correct trajectories on the basis of 3 trials, we observed that schizophrenia patients are significantly less performant than controls (Mann-Whitney, p _ 0.002). These findings suggest that, although schizophrenia patients are able to memorize some dynamic trajectories as well as controls, they do not profit from the repetition of the trajectory presentation. These findings are congruent with the hypothesis that schizophrenia could induce an unbalance between local and global information processing: the patients may be able to focus on details of the trajectory which could allow them to find the right target (bottom-up processes), but may show difficulty to refer to previous experience in order to filter incoming information (top-down processes) and enhance their visuo-spatial working memory abilities.
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Fondement L'appréciation objective du résultat des actes chirurgicaux fait partie de la démarche d'évaluation des pratiques professionnelles, notamment en chirurgie orthopédique pour le résultat des prothèses articulaires. Dans cette optique, les questionnaires « auto-administrés » par les patients offrent une solution séduisante, mais peu utilisée en France. Le questionnaire anglais Oxford Hip Score en 12 questions (OHS-12) a été sélectionné pour cette étude en raison de sa facilité d'utilisation. Hypothèse Le but de ce travail était de valider la traduction française du score d'autoévaluation Oxford-12 et d'en confronter les résultats à ceux des scores fonctionnels de références, de Harris (HHS) et de Merle d'Aubigné (PMA). Matériel et méthode À partir d'une série clinique de 242 patients candidats à une arthroplastie de hanche, une validation de la traduction en langue française de ce questionnaire a été réalisée, ainsi qu'une évaluation de sa cohérence par confrontation des données obtenues en préopératoire avec celles provenant des deux scores cliniques de référence. Résultats La traduction a été validée selon le processus de traduction inverse du français à l'anglais avec correction de toute déviation ou contresens après comparaison systématisée avec le questionnaire original anglais. La moyenne du score global OHS-12 était de 43,8 points (22 à 60 points) avec une bonne distribution de la valeur globale des trois scores comparés. La corrélation était excellente entre OHS et HHS, mais une corrélation de niveau identique entre OHS et PMA n'a été obtenue que pour l'association des paramètres douleur et fonction, après exclusion du critère mobilité relativement surreprésenté dans le score PMA. Discussion et conclusion Le recours à des questionnaires subjectifs qui apportent une appréciation personnelle du résultat de l'arthroplastie par le patient est facilement applicable à grande échelle. Ce travail permet de mettre à la disposition des chirurgiens orthopédistes français une version traduite et validée d'un score d'autoévaluation fiable et internationalement reconnu. Les résultats obtenus nous incitent à privilégier l'utilisation de ce questionnaire en complément des scores et méthodes d'évaluation classiques.
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[Abstract]
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Sustainable resource use is one of the most important environmental issues of our times. It is closely related to discussions on the 'peaking' of various natural resources serving as energy sources, agricultural nutrients, or metals indispensable in high-technology applications. Although the peaking theory remains controversial, it is commonly recognized that a more sustainable use of resources would alleviate negative environmental impacts related to resource use. In this thesis, sustainable resource use is analysed from a practical standpoint, through several different case studies. Four of these case studies relate to resource metabolism in the Canton of Geneva in Switzerland: the aim was to model the evolution of chosen resource stocks and flows in the coming decades. The studied resources were copper (a bulk metal), phosphorus (a vital agricultural nutrient), and wood (a renewable resource). In addition, the case of lithium (a critical metal) was analysed briefly in a qualitative manner and in an electric mobility perspective. In addition to the Geneva case studies, this thesis includes a case study on the sustainability of space life support systems. Space life support systems are systems whose aim is to provide the crew of a spacecraft with the necessary metabolic consumables over the course of a mission. Sustainability was again analysed from a resource use perspective. In this case study, the functioning of two different types of life support systems, ARES and BIORAT, were evaluated and compared; these systems represent, respectively, physico-chemical and biological life support systems. Space life support systems could in fact be used as a kind of 'laboratory of sustainability' given that they represent closed and relatively simple systems compared to complex and open terrestrial systems such as the Canton of Geneva. The chosen analysis method used in the Geneva case studies was dynamic material flow analysis: dynamic material flow models were constructed for the resources copper, phosphorus, and wood. Besides a baseline scenario, various alternative scenarios (notably involving increased recycling) were also examined. In the case of space life support systems, the methodology of material flow analysis was also employed, but as the data available on the dynamic behaviour of the systems was insufficient, only static simulations could be performed. The results of the case studies in the Canton of Geneva show the following: were resource use to follow population growth, resource consumption would be multiplied by nearly 1.2 by 2030 and by 1.5 by 2080. A complete transition to electric mobility would be expected to only slightly (+5%) increase the copper consumption per capita while the lithium demand in cars would increase 350 fold. For example, phosphorus imports could be decreased by recycling sewage sludge or human urine; however, the health and environmental impacts of these options have yet to be studied. Increasing the wood production in the Canton would not significantly decrease the dependence on wood imports as the Canton's production represents only 5% of total consumption. In the comparison of space life support systems ARES and BIORAT, BIORAT outperforms ARES in resource use but not in energy use. However, as the systems are dimensioned very differently, it remains questionable whether they can be compared outright. In conclusion, the use of dynamic material flow analysis can provide useful information for policy makers and strategic decision-making; however, uncertainty in reference data greatly influences the precision of the results. Space life support systems constitute an extreme case of resource-using systems; nevertheless, it is not clear how their example could be of immediate use to terrestrial systems.
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Award-winning
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Introduction : Le traitement des entorses acromio-claviculaires (AC) est aujourd'hui encore controversé. Les luxations AC avec lésion du fascia delto-trapézoidale (grade IV, V et VI) sont généralement traitées par une chirurgie de stabilisation. A l'inverse les entorses sans luxation de la clavicule (grade I et II) sont traitées conservativement avec de bons résultats. Il reste une interrogation concernant le traitement des luxations AC sans lésion du fascia delto-trapézoidale (grade III). Le but de notre étude est d'évaluer les résultats du traitement chirurgical des entorses AC de grade III selon un score cinématique. Matériel et Méthode : 30 patients avec une entorse AC de grade III ont été opérés d'une stabilisation de la clavicule entre 2003 et 2011 par le service d'Orthopédie et traumatologie du CHUV. Tous ont été cliniquement évalués selon le score de Constant. L'évaluation cinématique a été effectuée à l'aide d'un iPod touch, fixé sur l'humérus. Cet outil de mesure, décrit et validé par l'EPFL, prend en considération l'accélération et la vitesse angulaire du membre supérieur pour 7 différents mouvements des deux bras. L'évaluation cinématique a été effectuée en comparant le côté opéré par rapport au côté sain selon 2 scores (RAV et P) provenant de ces variables. Les scores RAV et P sont calculés par l'application installée sur l'iPod touch, ils sont donnés en pourcentage par rapport à l'épaule saine. Nous avons défini un score de Constant relatif de plus de 60 et un score cinématique de plus de 75% comme satisfaisant. Résultats : Nous avons revus dix patients avec un recul moyen de 36 mois (6 à 72 mois) d'un âge moyen de 42 ans (27 à 62 ans). Le score de Constant moyen est de 75.9 ± 21.7. Le score P moyen est de 89.3% ± 23.4 et le score RAV moyen est de 91.8% ± 15.8 (tab.1). Quatre sujets obtiennent un excellent score de Constant pour le bras opéré, 2 sujets obtiennent un bon score et un sujet obtient un score moyen, tandis que 3 sujets obtiennent un mauvais score. Huit patients obtiennent un score cinématique satisfaisant alors que nous observons 2 résultats non satisfaisants. Les mauvais résultats tant cliniques que cinématiques ont été observés chez des patients travailleurs de force, nécessitant d'effectuer des mouvements de l'épaule au-dessus du niveau du buste. Discussion et Conclusion : Sur la base d'une évaluation clinique et cinématique, le traitement chirugical des entorses AC de grade III donne des résultats satisfaisants. Notre étude ne comportant pas de groupe contrôle et notre série étant non homogène, avec un nombre limité de sujet, nous ne pouvons conclure que le traitement chirurgical est le traitement le mieux adapté aux patients avec une entorse acromio-claviculaires de type III. Nous recommandons toutefois un traitement chirugical chez les patients actifs, et les patients exerçant un métier avec nécessité de mobilisation de l'épaule au dessus du buste. Un travail manuel lourd représente un facteur de mauvais pronostic.
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Efforts to improve safety and traffic flow through merge areas on high volume/high speed roadways have included early merge and late merge concepts and several studies of the effectiveness of these concepts, many using Intelligent Transportation Systems for implementation. The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) planned to employ a system of dynamic message signs (DMS) to enhance standard temporary traffic control for lane closures and traffic merges at two bridge construction projects in western Iowa (Adair County and Cass County counties) on I-80 during the 2008 construction season. To evaluate the DMS system’s effectiveness for impacting driver merging actions, the Iowa DOT contracted with Iowa State University’s Center for Transportation Research and Education to perform the evaluation and make recommendations for future use of this system based on the results. Data were collected over four weekends, beginning August 1–4 and ending October 16–20, 2008. Two weekends yielded sufficient data for evaluation, one of transition traffic flow and the other with a period of congestion. For both of these periods, a statistical review of collected data did not indicate a significant impact on driver merging actions when the DMS messaging was activated as compared to free flow conditions with no messaging. Collection of relevant project data proved to be problematic for several reasons. In addition to personnel safety issues associated with the placement and retrieval of counting devices on a high speed roadway, unsatisfactory equipment performance and insufficient congestion to activate the DMS messaging hampered efforts. A review of the data that was collected revealed different results taken by the tube counters compared to the older model plate counters. Although variations were not significant from a practical standpoint, a statistical evaluation showed that the data, including volumes, speeds, and classifications from the two sources were not comparable at a 95% level of confidence. Comparison of data from the Iowa DOT’s automated traffic recorders (ATRs) in the area also suggested variations in results from these data collection systems. Additional comparison studies were recommended.
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OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and recalibrated Framingham risk function on current morbidity from coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality data from the Swiss population. METHODS: Data from the CoLaus study, a cross-sectional, population-based study conducted between 2003 and 2006 on 5,773 participants aged 35-74 without CHD were used to recalibrate the Framingham risk function. The predicted number of events from each risk function were compared with those issued from local MONICA incidence rates and official mortality data from Switzerland. RESULTS: With the original risk function, 57.3%, 21.2%, 16.4% and 5.1% of men and 94.9%, 3.8%, 1.2% and 0.1% of women were at very low (<6%), low (6-10%), intermediate (10-20%) and high (>20%) risk, respectively. With the recalibrated risk function, the corresponding values were 84.7%, 10.3%, 4.3% and 0.6% in men and 99.5%, 0.4%, 0.0% and 0.1% in women, respectively. The number of CHD events over 10 years predicted by the original Framingham risk function was 2-3 fold higher than predicted by mortality+case fatality or by MONICA incidence rates (men: 191 vs. 92 and 51 events, respectively). The recalibrated risk function provided more reasonable estimates, albeit slightly overestimated (92 events, 5-95th percentile: 26-223 events); sensitivity analyses showed that the magnitude of the overestimation was between 0.4 and 2.2 in men, and 0.7 and 3.3 in women. CONCLUSION: The recalibrated Framingham risk function provides a reasonable alternative to assess CHD risk in men, but not in women.
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The trabecular bone score (TBS) is an index of bone microarchitectural texture calculated from anteroposterior dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans of the lumbar spine (LS) that predicts fracture risk, independent of bone mineral density (BMD). The aim of this study was to compare the effects of yearly intravenous zoledronate (ZOL) versus placebo (PLB) on LS BMD and TBS in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. Changes in TBS were assessed in the subset of 107 patients recruited at the Department of Osteoporosis of the University Hospital of Berne, Switzerland, who were included in the HORIZON trial. All subjects received adequate calcium and vitamin D3. In these patients randomly assigned to either ZOL (n = 54) or PLB (n = 53) for 3 years, BMD was measured by DXA and TBS assessed by TBS iNsight (v1.9) at baseline and 6, 12, 24, and 36 months after treatment initiation. Baseline characteristics (mean ± SD) were similar between groups in terms of age, 76.8 ± 5.0 years; body mass index (BMI), 24.5 ± 3.6 kg/m(2) ; TBS, 1.178 ± 0.1 but for LS T-score (ZOL-2.9 ± 1.5 versus PLB-2.1 ± 1.5). Changes in LS BMD were significantly greater with ZOL than with PLB at all time points (p < 0.0001 for all), reaching +9.58% versus +1.38% at month 36. Change in TBS was significantly greater with ZOL than with PLB as of month 24, reaching +1.41 versus-0.49% at month 36; p = 0.031, respectively. LS BMD and TBS were weakly correlated (r = 0.20) and there were no correlations between changes in BMD and TBS from baseline at any visit. In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, once-yearly intravenous ZOL therapy significantly increased LS BMD relative to PLB over 3 years and TBS as of 2 years. © 2013 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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INTRODUCTION: One quarter of osteoporotic fractures occur in men. TBS, a gray-level measurement derived from lumbar spine DXA image texture, is related to microarchitecture and fracture risk independently of BMD. Previous studies reported the ability of spine TBS to predict osteoporotic fractures in women. Our aim was to evaluate the ability of TBS to predict clinical osteoporotic fractures in men. METHODS: 3620 men aged ≥50 (mean 67.6years) at the time of baseline DXA (femoral neck, spine) were identified from a database (Province of Manitoba, Canada). Health service records were assessed for the presence of non-traumatic osteoporotic fracture after BMD testing. Lumbar spine TBS was derived from spine DXA blinded to clinical parameters and outcomes. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to analyze time to first fracture adjusted for clinical risk factors (FRAX without BMD), osteoporosis treatment and BMD (hip or spine). RESULTS: Mean followup was 4.5years. 183 (5.1%) men sustain major osteoporotic fractures (MOF), 91 (2.5%) clinical vertebral fractures (CVF), and 46 (1.3%) hip fractures (HF). Correlation between spine BMD and spine TBS was modest (r=0.31), less than correlation between spine and hip BMD (r=0.63). Significantly lower spine TBS were found in fracture versus non-fracture men for MOF (p<0.001), HF (p<0.001) and CVF (p=0.003). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for incident fracture discrimination with TBS was significantly better than chance (MOF AUC=0.59, p<0.001; HF AUC=0.67, p<0.001; CVF AUC=0.57, p=0.032). TBS predicted MOF and HF (but not CVF) in models adjusted for FRAX without BMD and osteoporosis treatment. TBS remained a predictor of HF (but not MOF) after further adjustment for hip BMD or spine BMD. CONCLUSION: We observed that spine TBS predicted MOF and HF independently of the clinical FRAX score, HF independently of FRAX and BMD in men. Studies with more incident fractures are needed to confirm these findings.