Economic threshold levels for the velvetbean caterpillar on soybeans in Brazil: the social and the private perspectives

Pest Control is treated as a economic problem. The social and the private perspectives differ due to the consideration of the environmental and social impacts as well as technical aspects such as resistance, resurgence and secondary pests. A mathematical model is developed to determine and compare the social and the private optimum control strategies (which define the Economic Thereshold Levels) for the velvetbean caterpillar on soybeans in Brazil. The crop/pest system incorporates effects of predators and parasites, the soybean natural capacity to compensate for injury and the pesticide effects on both pests and its natural enemies; in the social case, the environmental and social impacts and the effects of pest resistance to the pesticide are incorporated. Consideration of density dependence, weather effects, randomnes of pest attack and risk aversion are discussed. The results can be compared with current control practices and IPM programme recomendations.

Cell-matrix interactions in Schistosomal portal fibrosis: a dynamic event

In recent years, one of the most significant progress in the understanding of liver diseases was the demonstration that liver fibrosis is a dynamic process resulting from a balance between synthesis and degradation of several matrix components, collagen in particular. Thus, fibrosis has been found to be a very early event during liver diseases, be it of toxic, viral or parasitic origin, and to be spontaneously reversible, either partially or totally. In liver fibrosis cell matrix interactions are dependent on the existence of the many factors (sometimes acting in combination) which produce the same events at the cellular and molecular levels. These events are: (i) the recruitment of fiber-producing cells, (ii) their proliferation, (iii) the secretion of matrix constituents of the extracellular matrix, and (iv) the remodeling and degradation of the newly formed matrix. All these events represent, at least in principle, a target for a therapeutic intervention aimed at influencing the experimentally induced hepatic fibrosis. In this context, hepatosplenic schistosomiasis is of particular interest, being an immune cell-mediated granulomatous disease and a model of liver fibrosis allowing extensive studies in human and animals as well as providing original in vitro models.

Explaining High Economic Growth in Small Tourism Countries with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper shows that tourism specialisation can help to explain the observed high growth rates of small countries. For this purpose, two models of growth and trade are constructed to represent the trade relations between two countries. One of the countries is large, rich, has an own source of sustained growth and produces a tradable capital good. The other is a small poor economy, which does not have an own engine of growth and produces tradable tourism services. The poor country exports tourism services to and imports capital goods from the rich economy. In one model tourism is a luxury good, while in the other the expenditure elasticity of tourism imports is unitary. Two main results are obtained. In the long run, the tourism country overcomes decreasing returns and permanently grows because its terms of trade continuously improve. Since the tourism sector is relatively less productive than the capital good sector, tourism services become relatively scarcer and hence more expensive than the capital good. Moreover, along the transition the growth rate of the tourism economy holds well above the one of the rich country for a long time. The growth rate differential between countries is particularly high when tourism is a luxury good. In this case, there is a faster increase in the tourism demand. As a result, investment of the small economy is boosted and its terms of trade highly improve.

Sustaining sleep spindles through enhanced SK2-channel activity consolidates sleep and elevates arousal threshold.

Sleep spindles are synchronized 11-15 Hz electroencephalographic (EEG) oscillations predominant during nonrapid-eye-movement sleep (NREMS). Rhythmic bursting in the reticular thalamic nucleus (nRt), arising from interplay between Ca(v)3.3-type Ca(2+) channels and Ca(2+)-dependent small-conductance-type 2 (SK2) K(+) channels, underlies spindle generation. Correlative evidence indicates that spindles contribute to memory consolidation and protection against environmental noise in human NREMS. Here, we describe a molecular mechanism through which spindle power is selectively extended and we probed the actions of intensified spindling in the naturally sleeping mouse. Using electrophysiological recordings in acute brain slices from SK2 channel-overexpressing (SK2-OE) mice, we found that nRt bursting was potentiated and thalamic circuit oscillations were prolonged. Moreover, nRt cells showed greater resilience to transit from burst to tonic discharge in response to gradual depolarization, mimicking transitions out of NREMS. Compared with wild-type littermates, chronic EEG recordings of SK2-OE mice contained less fragmented NREMS, while the NREMS EEG power spectrum was conserved. Furthermore, EEG spindle activity was prolonged at NREMS exit. Finally, when exposed to white noise, SK2-OE mice needed stronger stimuli to arouse. Increased nRt bursting thus strengthens spindles and improves sleep quality through mechanisms independent of EEG slow waves (<4 Hz), suggesting SK2 signaling as a new potential therapeutic target for sleep disorders and for neuropsychiatric diseases accompanied by weakened sleep spindles.

Dynamic Option Adjusted Spread and the Value of Mortgage Backed Securities (Draft 1)

We extend a reduced form model for pricing pass-through mortgage backed securities (MBS) and provide a novel hedging tool for investors in this market. To calculate the price of an MBS, traders use what is known as option-adjusted spread (OAS). The resulting OAS value represents the required basis points adjustment to reference curve discounting rates needed to match an observed market price. The OAS suffers from some drawbacks. For example, it remains constant until the maturity of the bond (thirty years in mortgage-backed securities), and does not incorporate interest rate volatility. We suggest instead what we call dynamic option adjusted spread (DOAS). The latter allows investors in the mortgage market to account for both prepayment risk and changes of the yield curve.

Threshold Effects of Dismissal Protection Regulation and the Emergence of Temporary Work Agencies

Labour market regulations aimed at enhancing job-security are dominant in several OECD countries. These regulations seek to reduce dismissals of workers and fluctuations in employment. The main theoretical contribution is to gauge the effects of such regulations on labour demand across establishment sizes. In order to achieve this, we investigate an optimising model of labour demand under uncertainty through the application of real option theory. We also consider other forms of employment which increase the flexibility of the labour market. In particular, we are modelling the contribution of temporary employment agencies (Zeitarbeit) allowing for quick personnel adjustments in client firms. The calibration results indicate that labour market rigidities may be crucial for understanding sluggishness in firms´ labour demand and the emergence and growth of temporary work.

Dynamic Option Adjusted Spread and the Value of Mortgage Backed Securities (Draft 2)

We extend a reduced form model for pricing pass-through mortgage backed securities (MBS) and provide a novel hedging tool for investors in this market. To calculate the price of an MBS, traders use what is known as option-adjusted spread (OAS). The resulting OAS value represents the required basis points adjustment to reference curve discounting rates needed to match an observed market price. The OAS suffers from some drawbacks. For example, it remains constant until the maturity of the bond (thirty years in mortgage-backed securities), and does not incorporate interest rate volatility. We suggest instead what we call dynamic option adjusted spread (DOAS), which allows investors in the mortgage market to account for both prepayment risk and changes of the yield curve.

Object recognition for autonomous objects: comparison of two approaches

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Switzerland, between September and December 2007. In order to make robots useful assistants for our everyday life, the ability to learn and recognize objects is of essential importance. However, object recognition in real scenes is one of the most challenging problems in computer vision, as it is necessary to deal with difficulties. Furthermore, in mobile robotics a new challenge is added to the list: computational complexity. In a dynamic world, information about the objects in the scene can become obsolete before it is ready to be used if the detection algorithm is not fast enough. Two recent object recognition techniques have achieved notable results: the constellation approach proposed by Lowe and the bag of words approach proposed by Nistér and Stewénius. The Lowe constellation approach is the one currently being used in the robot localization project of the COGNIRON project. This report is divided in two main sections. The first section is devoted to briefly review the currently used object recognition system, the Lowe approach, and bring to light the drawbacks found for object recognition in the context of indoor mobile robot navigation. Additionally the proposed improvements for the algorithm are described. In the second section the alternative bag of words method is reviewed, as well as several experiments conducted to evaluate its performance with our own object databases. Furthermore, some modifications to the original algorithm to make it suitable for object detection in unsegmented images are proposed.

IInflation and Globalisation: A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility

National inflation rates reflect domestic and international (regional and global) influences. The relative importance of these components remains a controversial empirical issue. We extend the literature on inflation co-movement by utilising a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility to account for shifts in the variance of inflation and endogenously determined regional groupings. We find that most of inflation variability is explained by the country specific disturbance term. Nevertheless, the contribution of the global component in explaining industrialised countries’ inflation rates has increased over time.

The Timing of Asset Trade and Optimal Policy in Dynamic Open Economies

Using a standard open economy DSGE model, it is shown that the timing of asset trade relative to policy decisions has a potentially important impact on the welfare evaluation of monetary policy at the individual country level. If asset trade in the initial period takes place before the announcement of policy, a national policymaker can choose a policy rule which reduces the work effort of households in the policymaker’s country in the knowledge that consumption is fully insured by optimally chosen international portfolio positions. But if asset trade takes place after the policy announcement, this insurance is absent and households in the policymaker’s country bear the full consumption consequences of the chosen policy rule. The welfare incentives faced by national policymakers are very different between the two cases. Numerical examples confirm that asset market timing has a significant impact on the optimal policy rule.

Distributional and Poverty Consequences of Globalization: A Dynamic Comparative Analysis for Developing Countries

This study examines the impact of globalization on cross-country inequality and poverty using a panel data set for 65 developing counties, over the period 1970-2008. With separate modelling for poverty and inequality, explicit control for financial intermediation, and comparative analysis for developing countries, the study attempts to provide a deeper understanding of cross country variations in income inequality and poverty. The major findings of the study are five fold. First, a non-monotonic relationship between income distribution and the level of economic development holds in all samples of countries. Second, both openness to trade and FDI do not have a favourable effect on income distribution in developing countries. Third, high financial liberalization exerts a negative and significant influence on income distribution in developing countries. Fourth, inflation seems to distort income distribution in all sets of countries. Finally, the government emerges as a major player in impacting income distribution in developing countries.

Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging

We forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods which incorporate dynamic model averaging. These methods not only allow for coe¢ cients to change over time, but also allow for the entire forecasting model to change over time. We nd that dynamic model averaging leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions and more sophisticated approaches such as those using time varying coe¢ cient models. We also provide evidence on which sets of predictors are relevant for forecasting in each period.

Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging

We forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods which incorporate dynamic model averaging. These methods not only allow for coe¢ cients to change over time, but also allow for the entire forecasting model to change over time. We nd that dynamic model averaging leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions and more sophisticated approaches such as those using time varying coe¢ cient models. We also provide evidence on which sets of predictors are relevant for forecasting in each period.

Alliance evolutions over the course of short-term dynamic psychotherapy: A case study

Background: Alliance evolutions, i.e. ruptures and resolutions over the course of psychotherapy, have been shown to be important descriptive features in different forms of psychotherapy, and in particular in psychodynamic psychotherapy. This case study of a client presenting elements of adjustment disorder undergoing short-term dynamic psychotherapy is drawn from a systematic naturalistic study and aims at illustrating, on a session-by-session-level, the processes of alliance ruptures and resolutions, by comparing both the client's and the therapist's perspectives. Method: Two episodes of alliance evolution were more fully studied, in relation to the evolution of transference, as well as the client's defensive functioning and core conflictual theme. These concepts were measured by means of valid, reliable observer-rater methods, based on session transcripts: the Defense Mechanisms Rating Scales (DMRS) for defensive functioning and the Core Conflictual Relationship Theme (CCRT) for the conflicts. Alliance was measured after each session using the Helping Alliance questionnaire (HAq-II). Results: The results indicated that these episodes of alliance rupture and resolutions may be understood as key moments of the whole therapeutic process reflecting the client's main relationship stakes. Illustrations are provided based on the client's in-session processes and related to the alliance development over the course of the entire therapy.